Dublin - Significant reduction in rents coming?

The_Conductor · 09-09-2020 1:51pm

brisan wrote: »

How many teenage girls are in their right mind
Having had 2 I would probably pay it to get them out of the house lol lol

My daughter is only 9- and there are days.........

Smouse156 · 09-09-2020 2:01pm

brisan wrote: »

i know one landlord who has taken 2 apartments off the market.
3 months on DAFT and not budged.
Normally gone within a week.
One had good outside space as well
Not sure of his intentions ,not sure he knows either

Clearly overpriced in the new normal, did he even consider incentives such as 1-month free to maintain the headline rate?

brisan · 09-09-2020 2:08pm

Smouse156 wrote: »

Clearly overpriced in the new normal, did he even consider incentives such as 1-month free to maintain the headline rate?

Not a chance in hell he would do that
He wont even get the apartments BER rated and never has

Assetbacked · 09-09-2020 2:27pm

brisan wrote: »

Would that be the Ronan Lyons that is employed by a Dublin University and produces reports for the rental website DAFT ?????

It's very interesting timing of the article, noting his conflicts and the total collapse of the student accommodation market for semester one at least.

Smouse156 · 09-09-2020 2:58pm

brisan wrote: »

Not a chance in hell he would do that
He wont even get the apartments BER rated and never has

Two holidays homes he has now then

Jimi H · 09-09-2020 3:04pm

One of the presenters on Newstalk was talking about rents this morning. He lives in a 3 bed in Kilmainham (I think - can’t remember if he said house or apartment and didn’t say a price). Anyway, one of his housemates left in January and they advertised the room. They received 350 responses in one day. Another of his housemates moved home to Kildare at the end of August and they received 10 responses in a week.

The_Conductor · 09-09-2020 4:13pm

Jimi H wrote: »

One of the presenters on Newstalk was talking about rents this morning. He lives in a 3 bed in Kilmainham (I think - can’t remember if he said house or apartment and didn’t say a price). Anyway, one of his housemates left in January and they advertised the room. They received 350 responses in one day. Another of his housemates moved home to Kildare at the end of August and they received 10 responses in a week.

Supply has shot up- and Dublin is not in nearly as high a demand as it might once have been (esp. with remote working, students only in college one day a week (or even less) etc etc)

What is happening at the moment is not the 'new normal' yet though- we'll have to wait for the dust to settle- probably at least Q1/Q2 2022- after the situation has stabilised. Google have already said staff can work from home until July 2021- and others are similar- and government policy is to encourage WFH where possible in the civil service and elsewhere, insofar as is possible.

The Dublin-centric nature of Ireland is getting upended- but also, a lot of non-Dublin homes are getting far higher utilisation than they ever have done in the past.

For now- Dublin may not be a ghost town- but people certainly aren't queuing up to go there any longer- and its not going to change for a considerable length of time.

Assetbacked · 10-09-2020 12:08pm

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/10/manhattan-rental-market-plunges-leaving-15000-empty-apartments.html

Some phenomenal quotes in this news report on the Manhattan rental market, a lot of similarities to our own;

The number of empty rental apartments in Manhattan nearly tripled compared with last year. There were more than 15,000 empty rental apartments in Manhattan in August, up from 5,600 a year ago.
The inventory of empty units is the largest ever recorded since data started being collected 14 years ago.
Hopes for a rebound in the fall or the end of 2020 look increasingly unlikely. Although rental prices have come down — median rental prices fell 4% in August — the discounts are not steep enough yet to lure new renters back to the city. The average rental price for a two-bedroom in Manhattan is still $4,756 a month.
Landlords are offering ever-larger incentives to try to entice renters, with the largest share of landlords offering concessions in history. On average, landlords were offering 1.9 months of free rent to new renters in August. The weakest segment of the rental market is the lower end, for one bedrooms and studios, partly a result of the pandemic’s greater impact on lower earners.
Average rental prices for studios fell 9%, to $2,574, while the average for one-bedroom apartments fell 5% to $3,445.

missdanto · 10-09-2020 3:00pm

I'm trying to gauge a potential drop in prices of a 1-bed apartment but the area I'm looking at is made up of mostly 2-beds. Is there a rough percentage you could use to calculate the equivalent price of a 1-bed? For example, if the 2-bed is 2.5k would it be fair to say a 1-bed (same area, same condition) would be 80% of that value, so 2k?

The_Conductor · 10-09-2020 3:34pm

missdanto wrote: »

I'm trying to gauge a potential drop in prices of a 1-bed apartment but the area I'm looking at is made up of mostly 2-beds. Is there a rough percentage you could use to calculate the equivalent price of a 1-bed? For example, if the 2-bed is 2.5k would it be fair to say a 1-bed (same area, same condition) would be 80% of that value, so 2k?

There really isn't any set formula that you can apply to try and determine how a 1 bed would differ in price to a 2 bed- however, in general, you'd most probably be looking at a steeper discount than the 80% that you're suggesting.

beauf · 10-09-2020 3:43pm

Depends, on how desirable the one bed is.

When looking to downsize relatives, I discovered that smaller places can sometimes, be more expensive than a bigger place, as its more desirable as it less to maintain. This is more relevant to houses than it is to apartments. With apartments it might come down to the layout, or the view etc.

Smouse156 · 10-09-2020 4:27pm

missdanto wrote: »

I'm trying to gauge a potential drop in prices of a 1-bed apartment but the area I'm looking at is made up of mostly 2-beds. Is there a rough percentage you could use to calculate the equivalent price of a 1-bed? For example, if the 2-bed is 2.5k would it be fair to say a 1-bed (same area, same condition) would be 80% of that value, so 2k?

Dublin has a shortage of 1-beds. I’m amazed that the asking prices are so close to the 2-beds. When I was looking before WFH kicked in I just decided to exclude them and pay the extra 10/15% to get an apartment 50% bigger (2-bed). The only place I saw a noticeable difference was in Vesta

Browney7 · 10-09-2020 4:45pm

The_Conductor wrote: »

There really isn't any set formula that you can apply to try and determine how a 1 bed would differ in price to a 2 bed- however, in general, you'd most probably be looking at a steeper discount than the 80% that you're suggesting.

From the random eye I throw at the rental market, I would have had 80% in my head. Where I've seen 2 bed apartments for 1800, the one beds nearby have been in the 1400 to 1500 range.

The_Conductor · 10-09-2020 5:43pm

Browney7 wrote: »

From the random eye I throw at the rental market, I would have had 80% in my head. Where I've seen 2 bed apartments for 1800, the one beds nearby have been in the 1400 to 1500 range.

It was the purchase prices I had in mind- a 2 bed will command a far better margin over a 1 bed- than 80% The demand just isn't there in sales/purchases- to support the further development of 1 beds- despite the demand in the rental sector. However- when the 2 beds only command a minor amount more than a 1 bed in the rental sector- you'd imagine that it would make sense to get more 1 beds- however, the book value is what investors look at- and while the rent differential might support 1 beds- the book value doesn't.

beauf · 10-09-2020 7:33pm

Personally I'd never buy a one bed, unless there was no other option.

missdanto · 10-09-2020 9:21pm

Thanks all. So 2k isn't a million miles off then.

10-09-2020 11:01pm

Not sure if you can read too much into it but the Kennedy Wilson owned Vantage apartment development in Leopardstown asking residents “to refer a friend” and offering €150 gift card.

While not significant on its own I don’t envision they’d have had to bother looking for referrals previously.

Character Building · 10-09-2020 11:10pm

cisk wrote: »

Not sure if you can read too much into it but the Kennedy Wilson owned Vantage apartment development in Leopardstown asking residents “to refer a friend” and offering €150 gift card.

While not significant on its own I don’t envision they’d have had to bother looking for referrals previously.

That's interesting. Not much of an incentive to a prospective tenant but it could be a sign of things to come over the short/medium term.

The commercial landlords could start offering a lot more gimmicks rather than reducing the advertised headline rate.

Browney7 · 10-09-2020 11:16pm

cisk wrote: »

Not sure if you can read too much into it but the Kennedy Wilson owned Vantage apartment development in Leopardstown asking residents “to refer a friend” and offering €150 gift card.

While not significant on its own I don’t envision they’d have had to bother looking for referrals previously.

They're missing a zero on that 150 with the rents they are seeking!

awec · 11-09-2020 9:54am

cisk wrote: »

Not sure if you can read too much into it but the Kennedy Wilson owned Vantage apartment development in Leopardstown asking residents “to refer a friend” and offering €150 gift card.

While not significant on its own I don’t envision they’d have had to bother looking for referrals previously.

Definitely not. There used to be almost no vacancies, but they did up their prices significantly in the past few years as they moved more up-market.

Smouse156 · 11-09-2020 10:37am

awec wrote: »

Definitely not. There used to be almost no vacancies, but they did up their prices significantly in the past few years as they moved more up-market.

Given that they are pretty far out and a lot of their tenants is coming from Sandyford Tech workers, they’ll struggle with WFH and people buying apartments in clay farm rather than remaining rent slaves there.

11-09-2020 6:35pm

I put my spare room up on Daft on Monday. Its in Marino, half an hour walk to the city centre and a very reasonable price.

Very few emails received.

11-09-2020 6:41pm

My girlfriend has had her spare room in Rathgar vacant since May.

She is asking Euro 800 a month for it, which I think is ludicrous at this time but she wont listen to me.

She has had precisely zero interest.

The_Conductor · 11-09-2020 6:59pm

WasBornToBoogie wrote: »

My girlfriend has had her spare room in Rathgar vacant since May.

She is asking Euro 800 a month for it, which I think is ludicrous at this time but she wont listen to me.

She has had precisely zero interest.

Surely she'd be better off reducing it to perhaps 500 a month- and having a steady income stream- 800 a month is just greedy?

Dav010 · 11-09-2020 7:08pm

The_Conductor wrote: »

Surely she'd be better off reducing it to perhaps 500 a month- and having a steady income stream- 800 a month is just greedy?

Deluded perhaps, but not greedy.

11-09-2020 7:09pm

The_Conductor wrote: »

Surely she'd be better off reducing it to perhaps 500 a month- and having a steady income stream- 800 a month is just greedy?

You are preaching to the converted. I suggested 600 but she wont listen to me.

Ozark707 · 11-09-2020 7:49pm

WasBornToBoogie wrote: »

My girlfriend has had her spare room in Rathgar vacant since May.

She is asking Euro 800 a month for it, which I think is ludicrous at this time but she wont listen to me.

She has had precisely zero interest.

I would not have thought 800 for a room in Rathgar was overly expensive. Is it a box room or something?

ChikiChiki · 11-09-2020 7:53pm

Sure my landlord hiked the rent on a 4 year tenant who lost their job by 300 and a small bit.

Anyway, the room lies idle 3 months later. Suits me :-) However the old housemate was a good skin.

I'm paying the guts of 1k a month, will likely go regional in the new year.

11-09-2020 7:55pm

I should clarify now, her parents own the place and are pressuring her to keep the price up.

No its a big double room

Yes last year when we had a browse on Daft similar properties in Rathgar were indeed Euro 800 but demand has dropped off a cliff due to the pandemic.

As I posted earlier in this thread, the amount of my friends who have moved out of Dublin and back to Kerry to work remotely is huge.

The_Conductor · 11-09-2020 8:06pm

WasBornToBoogie wrote: »

I should clarify now, her parents own the place and are pressuring her to keep the price up.

No its a big double room

Yes last year when we had a browse on Daft similar properties in Rathgar were indeed Euro 800 but demand has dropped off a cliff due to the pandemic.

As I posted earlier in this thread, the amount of my friends who have moved out of Dublin and back to Kerry to work remotely is huge.

Have a look at rent.ie - there are a staggering number of rooms in Rathgar (and surrounding areas) available- many of them for more than 6 months.

It is a different market- there is plenty of supply (and then some) to meet demand. If you want to let a room for top dollar- it has to be outstanding in some respect- and will almost certainly be en-suite at very least.

There are rooms to let in Rathgar at 800- however- rent.ie shows you when the adds were put up- and the more expensive units- unless there is a compelling reason for the price- are simply sitting there.

Some from just this evening have rooms @ 600/month (inclusive of a cooked breakfast and dinner). That sounds like remarkable value (albeit on a 5 night basis):

https://www.rent.ie/rooms-to-rent/Highfield-Road-Rathgar-Rathgar-Dublin-6-South-Dublin-City/1191844/

Link to all rooms currently available in Rathgar (and you can see how long the expensive rooms have been sitting there) here:

https://www.rent.ie/rooms-to-rent/dublin/rathgar/room-type_either/

This is *just* Rathgar- if you broaden the criteria to take in more of D6- there are over 200 bedrooms currently listed.

Dublin - Significant reduction in rents coming?

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