Property Market 2020

mariaalice · 24-03-2020 2:28pm

Pheonix10 wrote: »

Why shouldn't people expect to live within 30 mins of work for a reasonable price? That should be the goal for the whole country.

Why do people so aggressively think there's no way anyone should have that possibility as a single person. Not like they are demanding everyone should have a 5 bed home, with work next door.

Are there any capital cities in the western world where that happens?

Even in large cities, it's not as simple as that, take Manchester as an example there are areas with good transport links that are affordable but people still want to live in the like of Didsbury and Chorlton which are very expensive.

So if the goal is to live within a 30 minute of work that is a good goal but you would still get people saying they don't want the affordable area.

landofthetree · 24-03-2020 2:36pm

https://m.fin24.com/Economy/World/europe-dragged-into-record-recession-in-battle-to-halt-coronavirus-20200324

European data pretty much the worst ever.

UK+USA escaped a bit as it started lockdown later. It will probably face the same.

Probably facing the worse recession in history.

24-03-2020 2:36pm

lomb wrote: »

Likely on a tracker though with a payment less than rent or even current buyers paying 3 percent

Nope

mariaalice · 24-03-2020 2:43pm

landofthetree wrote: »

https://m.fin24.com/Economy/World/europe-dragged-into-record-recession-in-battle-to-halt-coronavirus-20200324

European data pretty much the worst ever.

UK+USA escaped a bit as it started lockdown later. It will probably face the same.

Probably facing the worse recession in history.

It funny I just think that will not happen and that there will be a massive bounce back, in other words, it will the shortest recession ever. I have no evidence for that though.

Claw Hammer · 24-03-2020 2:47pm

mariaalice wrote: »

It funny I just think that will not happen and that there will be a massive bounce back, in other words, it will the shortest recession ever. I have no evidence for that though.

you can think what you like, but the reality is, if there is a close down in production, massive economic appeal with governments borrowing money left right and centre in an effort to hold their countries together, the best precedent is probably the two World Wars of the 20th century. There was misery for years after the fighting stopped.

GreeBo · 24-03-2020 2:47pm

landofthetree wrote: »

I agree that everybody can't live where they want.

But I can go to Dublin Connolly and get on a train for 10mins. Then I can get off and see farm land.

Im not joking, Go out to Ashtown and see for yourself.

Not to mention all the vacant land inside all over the city.

I live 7km from city centre and 7km from farmland, that doesn't mean much though.
You can build a house on any bit of land, but getting services and infrastructure there is another thing.

Pheonix10 wrote: »

Why shouldn't people expect to live within 30 mins of work for a reasonable price? That should be the goal for the whole country.

Why do people so aggressively think there's no way anyone should have that possibility as a single person. Not like they are demanding everyone should have a 5 bed home, with work next door.

Because demand will always outstrip supply!
If this wasnt the case then a 4bed house in Monaghan would be the same price as one in Clontarf.

landofthetree · 24-03-2020 2:52pm

mariaalice wrote: »

It funny I just think that will not happen and that there will be a massive bounce back, in other words, it will the shortest recession ever. I have no evidence for that though.

I would agree with you if this crisis was over by June/July.

But there is no evidence that it will be.

Rainmann · 24-03-2020 2:55pm

Claw Hammer wrote: »

you can think what you like, but the reality is, if there is a close down in production, massive economic appeal with governments borrowing money left right and centre in an effort to hold their countries together, the best precedent is probably the two World Wars of the 20th century. There was misery for years after the fighting stopped.

I'd say that the makeup of our economies and the market conditions 80-years ago Vs Ireland today are chalk and cheese. I think the bounce back for Ireland will be quicker than people think, the big question is when will the Virus pass allowing for this bounce back to happen.

0gac3yjefb5sv7 · 24-03-2020 3:01pm

GreeBo wrote: »

I live 7km from city centre and 7km from farmland, that doesn't mean much though.
You can build a house on any bit of land, but getting services and infrastructure there is another thing.

Because demand will always outstrip supply!
If this wasnt the case then a 4bed house in Monaghan would be the same price as one in Clontarf.

Issue is that Dublin has plenty of land & with half decent transport, we could increase the supply hugely - with 30mins commute for a hell of a lot of people.

But that requires forward planning which the government can't handle.

Claw Hammer · 24-03-2020 3:03pm

Rainmann wrote: »

I'd say that the makeup of our economies and the market conditions 80-years ago Vs Ireland today are chalk and cheese. I think the bounce back for Ireland will be quicker than people think, the big question is when will the Virus pass allowing for this bounce back to happen.

No doubt economies were different 80 years ago, but have you any other precedent for such massive disruption worldwide?

voluntary · 24-03-2020 3:07pm

Discussing how to increase supply to meet the demand is such a pre-pandemic topic.

Browney7 · 24-03-2020 3:11pm

GreeBo wrote: »

Its ludicrous to suggest that everyone should be able to live where they want.

I didnt link Dublin to Ballsbridge, I gave it as an example of what your argument boils down to.

Explain how, considering there is a finite amount of land in Dublin, you can ignore market forces and keep house prices affordable to the average worker?

The logical conclusion is that, at some point, you start selling houses below cost.

Does that seem like a sound economic policy to you?

Btw, I'm not arguing that houses are unaffordable, I'm questions why they should be affordable.

In fairness the selling of houses below cost has been done for years in the form of councils selling off council property to the occupiers - selling for more than the build cost a number of years previous but for less than the replacement cost

Idbatterim · 24-03-2020 3:14pm

The Belly wrote: »

The mess we were and are in are down to governemnt policy Its by design and about votes.

ABSOLUTELY! up until this election, when many people screwed by it, reached the end of their tether! at last! not quite as black and white for the rats anymore!

Graham · 24-03-2020 3:16pm

Claw Hammer wrote: »

you can think what you like, but the reality is, if there is a close down in production, massive economic appeal with governments borrowing money left right and centre in an effort to hold their countries together, the best precedent is probably the two World Wars of the 20th century. There was misery for years after the fighting stopped.

and a postwar economic boom.

LuckyLloyd · 24-03-2020 3:18pm

awec wrote: »

Easy for young, socially mobile singletons to say.

People with kids move cities, counties and countries. Ahead of a savage recession, people who have saved a deposit (and probably have cleared credit cards, etc) would be better served holding that cash to potentially live off / retrain / move to a better economy / etc than guarantee negative equity on a house purchase that eats up all their reserves.

Honestly, it’s a silly conversation. I am a FTB, ready to go and we stopped looking a few weeks ago. I’m not sitting here making out that we’ll get a bargain and everything else will stay the same (our jobs our salaries) but I am damn certain that I want to hold my cash right now.

I feel it is objectively and unambiguously true that nobody should be advised to buy an asset that will immediately lose tens of points in value. The arguments of ‘but this might be your only chance to own’ are irrational and emotional. Hold your money and wait. Much better for you and your family to be mobile with cash reserves than stuck in negative equity with a mortgage you are struggling to pay because one or both of you lost your job.

Advice to the contrary of that can only have an agenda behind it imo.

Graham · 24-03-2020 3:31pm

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Hold your money and wait. Much better for you and your family to be mobile with cash reserves than stuck in negative equity with a mortgage you are struggling to pay because one or both of you lost your job.

Advice to the contrary of that can only have an agenda behind it imo.

Unless that advice is coming from somebody that remembers inflation.

We're entering uncharted territory here with some unprecedented levels of government financial interventions. Nobody knows that inflationary effects these actions might have.

OwlsZat · 24-03-2020 3:31pm

cnocbui wrote: »

Houses have an underlying basic cost of construction. If the market considers a house to be worth less than it costs to build, no one will build them.

If the costs of the inputs were fixed then this statement would make sense.

cnocbui · 24-03-2020 3:32pm

landofthetree wrote: »

The Government should aggressively hike tax on vacant development sites to drive land speculators from the property market, an ESRI research professor has told the Irish Independent.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/hike-levies-on-vacant-land-to-hit-hoarders-reduce-house-prices-esri-38536129.html

Its been government policy to keep prices high.

Just take land off the church in lieu of their unpaid debts.

awec · 24-03-2020 3:33pm

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

People with kids move cities, counties and countries. Ahead of a savage recession, people who have saved a deposit (and probably have cleared credit cards, etc) would be better served holding that cash to potentially live off / retrain / move to a better economy / etc than guarantee negative equity on a house purchase that eats up all their reserves.

Honestly, it’s a silly conversation. I am a FTB, ready to go and we stopped looking a few weeks ago. I’m not sitting here making out that we’ll get a bargain and everything else will stay the same (our jobs our salaries) but I am damn certain that I want to hold my cash right now.

I feel it is objectively and unambiguously true that nobody should be advised to buy an asset that will immediately lose tens of points in value. The arguments of ‘but this might be your only chance to own’ are irrational and emotional. Hold your money and wait. Much better for you and your family to be mobile with cash reserves than stuck in negative equity with a mortgage you are struggling to pay because one or both of you lost your job.

Advice to the contrary of that can only have an agenda behind it imo.

Of course they do. But it's a much more difficult prospect compared to someone with no family, no roots, no school requirements.

If you're looking at it purely financially then what you are saying makes sense. But for people with families it is not a purely financial decision. You say it's irrational and emotional, of course it is, you are talking about people housing their loved ones here. What cost can you put on your kids staying in the same school, near their grand parents, with their friends etc? Hard to put a figure on that. Would you overpay on a house if you could guarantee these things? You could wait for a drop and end up with none of these things.

I'm not giving advice, people can make their own minds up and they'd be daft to take advice from this place anyway, but just pointing out it's not as straightforward as being made out. There's no one-size-fits-all approach to this.

cnocbui · 24-03-2020 3:36pm

OwlsZat wrote: »

If the costs of the inputs were fixed then this statement would make sense.

I have not seen the cost of inputs to house construction fall in my lifetime, and I watched live on a B&W TV in a classroom, as Armstrong stepped onto the moon.

So nice in theory, but I'll believe it when I see it.

Mic 1972 · 24-03-2020 3:46pm

SozBbz wrote: »

Yes the numbers around the hospitality industry are shocking but the majority of those layoffs will be temporary.

The pubs etc will come back as soon as its safe to do so.

Our economy is not going to just stay like this. This is not the new normal.

Pubs and hospitality industry will have to wait a long time before business picks up for them again. The virus isn't going to go away in 2-3 months

SozBbz · 24-03-2020 3:50pm

cnocbui wrote: »

I have not seen the cost of inputs to house construction fall in my lifetime, and I watched live on a B&W TV in a classroom, as Armstrong stepped onto the moon.

So nice in theory, but I'll believe it when I see it.

They don't, of course.

The price of certain raw materials may rise or fall, but the price for construction materials will typically be whatever they can competitively be sold at. If the input prices get cheaper, then the building materials supplier has just improved their margin.

Say for arguments sake I manufacture and sell insulation used in the construction of houses. Right now, maybe some of my raw materials are getting cheaper (great) but I'm probaly going to sell less in the coming months (less great). So I'll probably just keep the price the same, so the margin on the units I sell will be higher, but overall I won't sell so many.

Nowhere in this scenario am i obliged or even motivated to pass on the reduction in the cost of my raw materials to by customers.

Houses are not built from raw steel or crude oil.

voluntary · 24-03-2020 4:00pm

SozBbz wrote: »

The price of certain raw materials may rise or fall, but the price for construction materials will typically be whatever they can competitively be sold at. If the input prices get cheaper, then the building materials supplier has just improved their margin.
.

Hard to discuss with an idiotic argument like that.

Anyways, if you believe in a rapid recovery on property market I'd suggest the great opportunity today would be to buy shares in dumped REIT vehicles. If property market doesn't get hurt much then REITs are going to recover fast and you can make some solid profits.

Idbatterim · 24-03-2020 4:03pm

voluntary wrote: »

Hard to discuss with an idiotic argument like that.

Anyways, if you believe in a rapid recovery on property market I'd suggest the great opportunity today would be to buy shares in dumped REIT vehicles. If property market doesn't get hurt much then REITs are going to recover fast and you can make some solid profits.

nothing with property is rapid, its glacial movements for the most part. Like even though now, prices may well be down 15-20% in a year, they dont just drop off a cliff. Its like boiling a lobster...

OwlsZat · 24-03-2020 4:08pm

cnocbui wrote: »

I have not seen the cost of inputs to house construction fall in my lifetime, and I watched live on a B&W TV in a classroom, as Armstrong stepped onto the moon. So nice in theory, but I'll believe it when I see it.

History doesn't predict the future.

cnocbui · 24-03-2020 4:10pm

OwlsZat wrote: »

History doesn't predict the future.

But it rhymes.

landofthetree · 24-03-2020 4:12pm

cnocbui wrote: »

I have not seen the cost of inputs to house construction fall in my lifetime, and I watched live on a B&W TV in a classroom, as Armstrong stepped onto the moon.

So nice in theory, but I'll believe it when I see it.

Why do tender prices fall during a recession?

OwlsZat · 24-03-2020 4:12pm

Love the tax/law avoiding AirBnB full property rental scum advertising for tennants on Daft for "3 months only".

Idbatterim · 24-03-2020 4:14pm

OwlsZat wrote: »

Love the tax/law avoiding AirBnB full property rental scum advertising for tennants on Daft for "3 months only".

why are they being called scum? the governt are entirely responsbile for the housing farce! Or do the airbnb owners, make the law?:rolleyes:

SozBbz · 24-03-2020 4:18pm

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Pubs and hospitality industry will have to wait a long time before business picks up for them again. The virus isn't going to go away in 2-3 months

My post didnt mention any timeframe, simply that this virus isnt going to be this problematic forever.

TBH I'd say the pubs will be first to bounce back, people will be only dying to get out of the house and socialise after this period of confinement.

cnocbui · 24-03-2020 4:20pm

landofthetree wrote: »

Why do tender prices fall during a recession?

We are not talking about tenders. After the GFC, did tradesmen accept lower wages and so house construction costs fell, or did they all jump on planes and head off to NZ, the UK and Australia, leaving a shortage of tradesmen in Ireland so wages didn't fall?

fliball123 · 24-03-2020 4:21pm

cnocbui wrote: »

We are not talking about tenders. After the GFC, did tradesmen accept lower wages and so house construction costs fell, or did they all jump on planes and head off to NZ, the UK and Australia, leaving a shortage of tradesmen in Ireland so wages didn't fall?

The one thing different about this is you cant jump on a plane anywhere and if you could there is no where in the world that will not have some corona

OwlsZat · 24-03-2020 4:21pm

Idbatterim wrote: »

why are they being called scum? the governt are entirely responsbile for the housing farce! Or do the airbnb owners, make the law?:rolleyes:

The law has been changed. People choose not to comply with the law. They should be prosecuted simliar to other law breaking scum.

https://www.thejournal.ie/explainer-short-term-lets-4704793-Jul2019/

0gac3yjefb5sv7 · 24-03-2020 4:23pm

Strange question but does anyone know how much discount an investment property company would get for buying say 15 apartments vs a regular private sale of one apartment.

Example on the PPR the apartments I am interested in sold to this fund for 240k each Dec 2018. One PPR sale has 303k listed in January. The bidding on the one I'm interested in is 290k.

Trying to guage if the 240k was a significant discount due to the multiple properties being brought.

Claw Hammer · 24-03-2020 4:23pm

SozBbz wrote: »

My post didnt mention any timeframe, simply that this virus isnt going to be this problematic forever.

TBH I'd say the pubs will be first to bounce back, people will be only dying to get out of the house and socialise after this period of confinement.

Will people have any money to buy drink in pubs? The overhang of this virus is going to be higher taxes, higher personal debts and therefore reduced capacity for leisure spending. People will be very conscious about their personal space for quite a considerable time after this ends. People who have savings are going to even more conscious of how quickly circumstances change and will be very cautious in their spending for quite some time. There will be very little credit available as the banks will be maxed out. Another few weeks should see massive default on PPC products with cars being repossessed left right and centre. Some planned building projects will now not proceed because there will be no longer economically viable and other half completed projects may well be stalled. The end of this crisis will not be like the switching on of a lightbulb more like the slow warming up of a cold engine.

Cuddlesworth · 24-03-2020 4:27pm

After 2 decades, its somewhat comforting to know that Cherrywood will continue to be a desolate wasteland in the near future I guess.

wowy · 24-03-2020 4:28pm

Pheonix10 wrote: »

Strange question but does anyone know how much discount an investment property company would get for buying say 15 apartments vs a regular private sale of one apartment.

Example on the PPR the apartments I am interested in sold to this fund for 240k each Dec 2018. One PPR sale has 303k listed in January. The bidding on the one I'm interested in is 290k.

Trying to guage if the 240k was a significant discount due to the multiple properties being brought.

Were they newly built when sold to the fund in Dec 2018? If so, Vat would be excluded from the sale price registered on the PPR.

cnocbui · 24-03-2020 4:31pm

fliball123 wrote: »

The one thing different about this is you cant jump on a plane anywhere and if you could there is no where in the world that will not have some corona

That being the case, there won't be any house building going on either, so claiming a reduction in costs is less than moot.

kevinc565 · 24-03-2020 4:37pm

Blue Badger wrote: »

As someone hoping to be in a position to purchase by mid-2020 (currently looking at properties within commuting distance of Dublin and am living like a student again) I absolutely hope they do come down!

Personally... I'm expecting stagnation for much of 2020 within Dublin. Who knows with Brexit but tbh I can't see them reaching a trade agreement by end of 2020.

It's nice to dream that there will be a fall though

Problem a lot of sellers wont just drop the price - so they hang on the market for months and years even.

51 Rocwood:
https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/51-rocwood-off-leopardstown-road-blackrock-co-dublin-a94-v302/3851170

was on and off the market for 2+ year i think before going sale agreed.

randoplh134 · 24-03-2020 4:42pm

<SNIP>

landofthetree · 24-03-2020 5:17pm

cnocbui wrote: »

We are not talking about tenders. After the GFC, did tradesmen accept lower wages and so house construction costs fell, or did they all jump on planes and head off to NZ, the UK and Australia, leaving a shortage of tradesmen in Ireland so wages didn't fall?

Production of housing almost stopped. The few sites that were open seen lads work for a lot less.

0gac3yjefb5sv7 · 24-03-2020 5:21pm

wowy wrote: »

Were they newly built when sold to the fund in Dec 2018? If so, Vat would be excluded from the sale price registered on the PPR.

No not newly built. Built in 2005 which I know brings its own cautions.

OwlsZat · 24-03-2020 5:29pm

cnocbui wrote: »

That being the case, there won't be any house building going on either, so claiming a reduction in costs is less than moot.

There will be houses built for lower costs. The need to build has never been greater. Economically the country will need to put people back to work and generate funds for the desimated pension reserve. I'll be hugely shocked if the building program across the country isn't used as a Government national recovery vehicle.

SozBbz · 24-03-2020 5:29pm

Claw Hammer wrote: »

Will people have any money to buy drink in pubs? The overhang of this virus is going to be higher taxes, higher personal debts and therefore reduced capacity for leisure spending. People will be very conscious about their personal space for quite a considerable time after this ends. People who have savings are going to even more conscious of how quickly circumstances change and will be very cautious in their spending for quite some time. There will be very little credit available as the banks will be maxed out. Another few weeks should see massive default on PPC products with cars being repossessed left right and centre. Some planned building projects will now not proceed because there will be no longer economically viable and other half completed projects may well be stalled. The end of this crisis will not be like the switching on of a lightbulb more like the slow warming up of a cold engine.

Firstly, there was an industry expert on about PCPs (i presume you mean) saying that they were reaching out to come to arrangements with people which makes absolute sense. Think about it, they hardly want all those cars back en masse!

Also, while a lot of people have lost their jobs, most people have not. Granted, no one is going to be earning a bonus this year, but that said, especially in light of the new support payments just announced, yes I do think people will have money to go to the pub. They may not choose to go for Champagne in the Shelbourne, but a few pints down the local after months of no social life? I think most people will be able to spend the €30/40 that would take.

Big, discretionary purchases will suffer without doubt, but even during the recession people managed to go to the pub. Also, people on the dole manage to go to the pub. Its really not that aspirational.

landofthetree · 24-03-2020 5:32pm

OwlsZat wrote: »

There will be houses built for lower costs. The need to build has never been greater. Economically the country will need to put people back to work and generate funds for the desimated pension reserve. I'll be hugely shocked if the building program across the country isn't used as a Government national recovery vehicle.

Where will they get the money?

Idbatterim · 24-03-2020 5:36pm

landofthetree wrote: »

Where will they get the money?

where are the uk, american and all the other governments, getting these staggering funds they are talking about from!

landofthetree · 24-03-2020 5:39pm

Idbatterim wrote: »

where are the uk, american and all the other governments, getting these staggering funds they are talking about from!

All has to be paid back?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.newsweek.com/national-debt-could-surpass-25-trillion-amid-spending-combat-coronavirus-1493758%3famp=1

Depressing stuff.

Claw Hammer · 24-03-2020 5:39pm

SozBbz wrote: »

Firstly, there was an industry expert on about PCPs (i presume you mean) saying that they were reaching out to come to arrangements with people which makes absolute sense. Think about it, they hardly want all those cars back en masse!

.

The banks are heavily exposed on PCPs. when this is over they will want to raise cash immediately. they will take back cars and sell them for what they can get. they will make sweet talk noises on the radio about helping affected customers but in reality they will do what they are doing to everyone else and shaft them.

landofthetree · 24-03-2020 5:42pm

Claw Hammer wrote: »

The banks are heavily exposed on PCPs. when this is over they will want to raise cash immediately. they will take back cars and sell them for what they can get. they will make sweet talk noises on the radio about helping affected customers but in reality they will do what they are doing to everyone else and shaft them.

The first rule of banking is take legal action as quickly as possible once a default happens.

Banks won't hang around if payments aren't being met.

cal naughton · 24-03-2020 5:44pm

Claw Hammer wrote: »

The banks are heavily exposed on PCPs. when this is over they will want to raise cash immediately. they will take back cars and sell them for what they can get. they will make sweet talk noises on the radio about helping affected customers but in reality they will do what they are doing to everyone else and shaft them.

The Bank's in this case are Volkswagen bank, Ford credit ,Audi finance etc and not your Irish high street bank's.

Property Market 2020

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