Hurricane Dorian

Rougies · 01-09-2019 6:18pm

NIMAN wrote: »

Any link to camera shows fairly decent weather!

Where is this storm in post#145?

That webcam is on Paradise Island which 160km south of the eye currently over Marsh Harbour. There won't be anything more than a bit of wind.

https://www.google.ie/maps/dir/Marsh+Harbour,+The+Bahamas/Paradise+Island,+The+Bahamas/@26.3722144,-79.4603078,6.83z/data=!4m13!4m12!1m5!1m1!1s0x89248250e7282c21:0x1bd6a06bcb76260d!2m2!1d-77.0909809!2d26.5241653!1m5!1m1!1s0x892f7db93cb9b50b:0x4f27a6bcae38f950!2m2!1d-77.3134431!2d25.0821287

Rougies · 01-09-2019 6:19pm

illumin wrote: »

Here you go:

That is a fake stream, it's just looped footage of another storm.

Itssoeasy · 01-09-2019 6:25pm

Was watching the weather channel earlier and they were saying the winds around the eye wall could be 200mph and a massive storm surge. The poor Bahamas.

Natibaby · 01-09-2019 6:28pm

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Was watching the weather channel earlier and they were saying the winds around the eye wall could be 200mph and a massive storm surge. The poor Bahamas.

Do you have a link to the weather channel stream? I watching it last year but can't get a link this year? Thanks

Natibaby · 01-09-2019 6:31pm

Form a storm chaser in the Bahamas, sounds bad https://twitter.com/icyclone/status/1168187492656472066?s=21

01-09-2019 6:37pm

12Z SHIPS intensity forecast had winds at 124 kts (140mph).

Itssoeasy · 01-09-2019 6:37pm

Natibaby wrote: »

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Was watching the weather channel earlier and they were saying the winds around the eye wall could be 200mph and a massive storm surge. The poor Bahamas.

Do you have a link to the weather channel stream? I watching it last year but can't get a link this year? Thanks

Just type in livenewson into google and it's the first result and it's one of the listed channels.

Itssoeasy · 01-09-2019 6:39pm

Edit: it seems I was right to be sceptical.

A live stream from the Bahamas apparently(I say apparently because I've no proof it is)

sdanseo · 01-09-2019 6:41pm

Deleted User wrote: »

12Z SHIPS intensity forecast had winds at 124 kts (140mph).

From NHC

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and
satellite data indicate that Dorian has made landfall at 1240 pm
EDT (1640 UTC) in Elbow Cay, Abacos. The winds have increased
to 185 mph (295 km/h) with the minimum central pressure falling to
911 mb (26.90 inches).

BumperD · 01-09-2019 6:45pm

jimmynokia wrote: »

https://www.facebook.com/Weather2019/

This is the best footage I’ve seen so far

Meteorite58 · 01-09-2019 7:02pm

Lightning around the eye.

Rougies · 01-09-2019 7:10pm

https://twitter.com/DMM_News_/status/1168220930864271365

aisling86 · 01-09-2019 7:12pm

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10157279975742367&id=88134562366

Kermit.de.frog · 01-09-2019 7:17pm

ECM takes the track further west than previous keeping it just off the Florida coast now.

Westerly trend allbeit slight enough confirmed with that.

It all depends now on when exactly we see the turn to the north. It could be any time from now.

The earlier the better.

Oneiric 3 · 01-09-2019 7:27pm

ECMWF 12z wind gust forecast for next 48hrs.

Eye passes over Grand Bahama. May weaken the storm a little but devastation is near certain by now.

jimmynokia · 01-09-2019 7:32pm

https://www.livenewsnow.com/american/the-weather-channel.html

Meteorite58 · 01-09-2019 7:33pm

A close up of the eye.

I see commentary that it will get as close as 70 miles from the Florida or closer .

https://twitter.com/StuOstro/status/1168194454416756743?s=20

Storm Surge

https://twitter.com/StormchaserUKEU/status/1168199264478093317?s=20

https://twitter.com/LoveDeje/status/1168205887594536960?s=20

Oneiric 3 · 01-09-2019 7:35pm

Showers passing over Freeport presently, but winds still seem very light. Would estimate no more that 10 kts mean, if that at all.

YFlyer · 01-09-2019 7:38pm

Natibaby wrote: »

Form a storm chaser in the Bahamas, sounds bad https://twitter.com/icyclone/status/1168187492656472066?s=21

His children?

Kermit.de.frog · 01-09-2019 7:41pm

Scenario still very much on the table.

https://twitter.com/chrisnunley/status/1168230728217157632

Oneiric 3 · 01-09-2019 7:44pm

Perhaps a trick of the eye (not intended) but the eye of the storm seems to be closing up at present

pad199207 · 01-09-2019 7:45pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

ECM takes the track further west than previous keeping it just off the Florida coast now.

Westerly trend allbeit slight enough confirmed with that.

It all depends now on when exactly we see the turn to the north. It could be any time from now.

The earlier the better.

Hard to tell, models aren’t even initialising Dorian correctly with the pressure. Way off.

JCX BXC · 01-09-2019 7:48pm

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Perhaps a trick of the eye (not intended) but the eye of the storm seems to be closing up at present

Eyewall replacement cycle?

Oneiric 3 · 01-09-2019 7:48pm

JCX BXC wrote: »

Eyewall replacement cycle?

Can't rule it out.

Kermit.de.frog · 01-09-2019 7:49pm

pad199207 wrote: »

Hard to tell, models aren’t even initialising Dorian correctly with the pressure. Way off.

The main global models don't have that resolution, only the high resolution or specific hurricane models.

This is knife edge on being a disaster not seen since at least Andrew. Forecasting the track is more irrelevant now versus current observations.

Meteorite58 · 01-09-2019 7:52pm

Some footage coming out now , would imagine these are still in the eye, more to come

https://twitter.com/StormchaserUKEU/status/1168226887329558528?s=20

https://twitter.com/LoveDeje/status/1168220071791071233?s=20

Oneiric 3 · 01-09-2019 7:52pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Forecasting the track is more irrelevant now versus current observations.

More relevant, surely? But I agree.

01-09-2019 7:57pm

sdanseo wrote: »

From NHC

18Z SHIPS 130 kts. In 6 hrs: 123 kts. In 12 hrs: 118 kts. Are the NHC overdoing it I wonder? Any actual accurate readings on the ground?

Oneiric 3 · 01-09-2019 7:59pm

It isn't just the global models struggling with the pressure values though. Here is NOAA's own high res model (3km Sq) that is ran ever hour. Has central pressure at over 970 hPa at this time.

It does make you ask as to what the point is of taking real time obs if they are not reflected in later model runs.

pad199207 · 01-09-2019 8:12pm

3pm advisory shows no weakening despite landfall(how little it was)

Meteorite58 · 01-09-2019 8:14pm

I see commentary that the back eye wall is just now moving in to Marsh Harbour on Great Abaco.

pad199207 · 01-09-2019 8:14pm

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

It isn't just the global models struggling with the pressure values though. Here is NOAA's own high res model (3km Sq) that is ran ever hour. Has central pressure at over 970 hPa at this time.

It does make you ask as to what the point is of taking real time obs if they are not reflected in later model runs.

Models have certainly overestimated the Pressure forecasts of the hurricane. Playing havoc I’d imagine

Oneiric 3 · 01-09-2019 8:21pm

Have to laugh at this 'advisory' from the Bahamas Dept of Meteorology:

"BAHAMAS PUBLIC FORECAST

THE PUBLIC FORECAST FOR 6:00 AM TODAY AND TONIGHT SUNDAY 1ST
SEPTEMBER 2019, ISSUED BY THE BAHAMAS DEPARTMENT OF
METEOROLOGY.

GENERAL SITUATION: CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE DORIAN IS MOVING ACROSS ABACO
AND EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER OR NEAR GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND TODAY AND
TONIGHT WHILE RAINBANDS FROM DORIAN WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MODERATE
TO STRONG WINDS, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE
SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS IN THE WAKE OF DORIAN’S PASSAGE.

SPECIAL WARNINGS: A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS WHICH INCLUDES NORTH ELEUTHERA, ABACO, GRAND
BAHAMA, BIMINI, THE BERRY ISLANDS AND NEW PROVIDENCE. A HURRICANE
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH ANDROS.

FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS

WEATHER: HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ABACO AND
GRAND BAHAMA AND ITS ADJACENT WATERS….TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
IN EFFECT FOR ELEUTHERA, BERRY ISLANDS, AND BIMINI. EXPECT CLOUDY TO
OVERCAST SKIES, WINDY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS…FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED DUE to HEAVY AND PROLONGED
RAINFALL

ADVISORY: BOATERS ARE TO REMAIN IN PORT.

No overblown orange or red warnings there. Just don't go out to sea while the storm pushes through. :cool:

Stop moaning ffs · 01-09-2019 8:22pm

Sorry if it’s been posted but I’m watching this on repeat.
It’s vast

https://twitter.com/kenobifan1977/status/1168240190936293378?s=21

sdanseo · 01-09-2019 8:34pm

I've never seen NHC give this many direct appeals to residents in particular places. Let alone specific updates to address people wandering otuside in the eye.

Rougies · 01-09-2019 8:54pm

Bahamas national TV station feed. Real coverage without the sensationalist American crap. Cuts out from time to time.

https://znsbahamas.com/

dfx- · 01-09-2019 9:19pm

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Have to laugh at this 'advisory' from the Bahamas Dept of Meteorology:

"General Situation: Hurricane Category 4 moving across"

That is the general situation alright.:D

Kermit.de.frog · 01-09-2019 9:34pm

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1168242194249125888

pad199207 · 01-09-2019 9:40pm

Not even flinching going over those islands. Plenty of lightning wrapped around the eye.

sdanseo · 01-09-2019 9:42pm

Rougies wrote: »

Bahamas national TV station feed. Real coverage without the sensationalist American crap. Cuts out from time to time.

https://znsbahamas.com/

Presenters, local government and their Emergency briefing people are all basically suggesting God is in charge and they should just pray.

I'm sure they're a very religious country but that sort of bull**** is extremely unhelpful. Focus on facts.

Freeport Airport Terminal Area Forecast. You won't see a TAF like this too often. And what's scary is it could be underestimating by nearly 100%. (decoded here )

MYGF 011600Z 0118/0218 36030G45KT 7000 SHRA FEW015CB BKN040 OVC080 FM020200 VRB80G100KT 1600 TSRA BKN015CB BKN018 OVC050

sparrowcar · 01-09-2019 9:45pm

Any updated live streams or webcams?

pad199207 · 01-09-2019 9:48pm

sparrowcar wrote: »

Any updated live streams or webcams?

Starting to get Gusty in Freeport

https://www.cruisin.me/cruise-port-webcams/caribbean/freeport-bahamas/

BumperD · 01-09-2019 9:50pm

Some harrowing footage on that Facebook page I linked again few pages back.

Watching the Bahamiam live tv the staff have fear in their faces. Not nice

Kermit.de.frog · 01-09-2019 10:13pm

Latest - another very slight nudge west. Small differences here make huge differences from an impact perspective. Also hurricane warning now in eastern counties of Florida.

EDaFImxUYAAYc2d?format=png&name=900x900

pad199207 · 01-09-2019 10:14pm

Eye looks like it could be getting smaller slightly. Perhaps an eyewall cycle about to get underway.

pad199207 · 01-09-2019 10:34pm

There are no words...

ninebeanrows · 01-09-2019 10:39pm

What odds this just continues trundling west? Its on a roll

pad199207 · 01-09-2019 10:43pm

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

What odds this just continues trundling west? Its on a roll

That’s what I was worried about early this morning. This could carve its own path.
Small chance that the direct hit into Florida and the then the turn North that was modelled days ago could be correct...

Kermit.de.frog · 01-09-2019 10:49pm

18z GFS has the eye ever closer to the Florida coast by another 10 miles or so...

BorneTobyWilde · 01-09-2019 10:52pm

https://twitter.com/Stocktrader/status/1168247720458510337

Hurricane Dorian

Comments