General Election and Government Formation Megathread (see post #1)

is_that_so · 15-01-2020 9:58am

3 incumbents in Louth safe too 1 SF, 1 FF, 1 FG

is_that_so · 15-01-2020 10:04am

sid waddell wrote: »

Any big potential casualties?

I think Eoghan Murphy will lose his seat in Dublin Bay South. Kate O'Connell has made a good impression nationally and seems popular locally, whereas Murphy has had a complete nightmare over the last couple of years. O'Connell, Jim O'Callaghan and Eamon Ryan look nailed on for three of the four seats and Murphy will be fighting for his life for the last seat at best I think. Labour could gain a seat back there.

Regina Doherty will struggle in Meath East. Where the challenge to her comes from is the question but I think FG will do very well to hold two seats in a three seat constituency.

I have a feeling Shane Ross's vote will be well down in Dublin Rathdown, he'll probably have enough but I wouldn't rule a big shock there, either FF or FG2 to beat him - Neale Richmond is a strong candidate.

Peadar Toibin will struggle in Meath West after leaving Sinn Fein. He has to be Aontu's only chance of a seat and if he loses it's pretty much curtains for them as a party a la Renua 2016. He'll be relying on a personal vote.

Stephen Donnelly is at serious risk in Wicklow for me. His vote from 2016 will surely desert him en masse and existing FF supporters might not be hugely inclined to vote for him.

Not sure if Joan Burton is running this time but I think she'll lose out this time in Dublin West and Ruth Coppinger is at risk in the same constituency as well.

Doherty will be fine as the first thee are so far ahead of the rest but Toibin and SF will split the vote and probably result in neither getting a seat.
Donnelly is unlikely to struggle in Wicklow and he'll have running mates for the first time. I 'd say his share of the vote will drop by up to half but they'll use it for vote management.

Bishop of hope · 15-01-2020 10:08am

Dank Janniels wrote: »

Might be stating the obvious but these will be safe:

Dennis Naughton
Michael Fitzmaurice
Michael Healy Rae
Danny Healy Rae
Mattie McGrath
Boxer Moran
Michael Lowry
Noel Grelish

Catherine Murphy
Rosin Shortall

Eamon Ryan

Brendan Howlin
Alan Kelly

Aonghus O'Snodaigh
Mary Lou McDonald
Pearse Doherthy

Willie O'Dea
Micheal Martin
Michael McGrath

Richard Bruton
Simon Coveney
Leo Varadkar (possibly)

*its actually hard trying to think of all the others!

I'm not so sure on Boxer Moran, he picked a good few votes in Longford last time, he might not this time.
There are two new candidates in Longford this time, Flaherty for FF and Carrigy for FG.
Last time out MM imposed a candidate for FF that nobody in the local cumans wanted, nobody nearly campaigned for her and she lost out because of her Longford side of the vote was not the usual FF vote
FG had James Bannon, he lost his seat after being involved in a unfair dismissal case with his secretary and some poster stealing scandals.
There is no current TD in the county and as far as I know that makes Longford the only county without one.
I think Flaherty will do well and so will Carrigy, both popular local politicians.
If they mop up most of Longford and they should and likely even transfer from each other well, Moran might well find himself in a fight to keep his seat in Longford Westmeath.

LuasSimon · 15-01-2020 10:24am

aw wrote: »

I caught Ivan Yates' analysis yesterday on Newstalk.

His GE prediction was quite interesting and the numbers are as follows:

FF to break 60 seats
FG to struggle to get to 40
Margin of error for both of the above: 2/3 seats

Green Party to go to 8
SF to fall to 17
Labour down 1 to 6

13 seats between the smaller parties/groups e.g SD, PBP
19 seats for Independents e.g Mattie McGrath, Healy Raes

Fianna Fail at 8/11 to get most seats is a cracking bet

CrabRevolution · 15-01-2020 10:51am

sid waddell wrote: »

Any big potential casualties?

I think Eoghan Murphy will lose his seat in Dublin Bay South. Kate O'Connell has made a good impression nationally and seems popular locally, whereas Murphy has had a complete nightmare over the last couple of years. O'Connell, Jim O'Callaghan and Eamon Ryan look nailed on for three of the four seats and Murphy will be fighting for his life for the last seat at best I think. Labour could gain a seat back there.

Regina Doherty will struggle in Meath East. Where the challenge to her comes from is the question but I think FG will do very well to hold two seats in a three seat constituency.

I have a feeling Shane Ross's vote will be well down in Dublin Rathdown, he'll probably have enough but I wouldn't rule a big shock there, either FF or FG2 to beat him - Neale Richmond is a strong candidate.

Peadar Toibin will struggle in Meath West after leaving Sinn Fein. He has to be Aontu's only chance of a seat and if he loses it's pretty much curtains for them as a party a la Renua 2016. He'll be relying on a personal vote.

Stephen Donnelly is at serious risk in Wicklow for me. His vote from 2016 will surely desert him en masse and existing FF supporters might not be hugely inclined to vote for him.

Not sure if Joan Burton is running this time but I think she'll lose out this time in Dublin West and Ruth Coppinger is at risk in the same constituency as well.

Tóibín will be interesting in Meath West. He's been on election footing since leaving SF, writing an opinion or letter a week in the Meath Chronicle demanding a Navan Rail line (Though that didn't stop the Chronicle calling him out on plastering the county with his posters advertising what seem to be multiple weekly public meetings about crime and health).

He'll also be keen to avoid mentioning why he ever left Sinn Féin in the first place. I doubt many will believe him if he claims it was over anything other than abortion, not that there won't be those who agree with him on his pro-life stance. I'm not sure if it's enough to carry him to a seat though.

blanch152 · 15-01-2020 11:02am

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

I think when it all comes down to it the FFers will get 32% and FG will trail at 27%

That would be an interesting outcome.

Both FF and FG would gain seats, but FF would overtake FG.

If the Greens are also gaining seats, that means losses for the rest, which makes a coalition government harder to form.

toleratethis · 15-01-2020 11:39am

Has Marian Harkin a shot at a seat, she was a good MEP.

sid waddell · 15-01-2020 11:44am

CrabRevolution wrote: »

Tóibín will be interesting in Meath West. He's been on election footing since leaving SF, writing an opinion or letter a week in the Meath Chronicle demanding a Navan Rail line (Though that didn't stop the Chronicle calling him out on plastering the county with his posters advertising what seem to be multiple weekly public meetings about crime and health).

He'll also be keen to avoid mentioning why he ever left Sinn Féin in the first place. I doubt many will believe him if he claims it was over anything other than abortion, not that there won't be those who agree with him on his pro-life stance. I'm not sure if it's enough to carry him to a seat though.

The No side in the 8th Amendment referendum got 36% in Meath West so he'll be pinning his hopes on that. But most of that vote is natural FG and FF.

I also think that referendum is a handy rule of thumb in ascertaining where the Greens have a chance of seats.

Anywhere that returned a Yes vote of over 65% or over in 2018 and they should be in the shake up at least.

I fully expect FF to be the largest party. They seem to have a lot more chances of seat gains than FG.

Currently it's 47 FG and 46 FF (if you include the Ceann Comhairle O'Fearghail, who is FF), though I think that doesn't include the seat Dara Murphy vacated in Cork North Central so we'll say 48 FG 46 FF.

In terms of realistic seat gains for FG, they are thin enough on the ground.

They should re-take the seat they lost in the by-election in Dublin Mid-West.

Other realistic possibilities are:
The extra seat in Cavan-Monaghan
A second seat in Longford-Westmeath
Tipperary

Puncher's chances for them would be:
A second seat in Dublin Rathdown
A second seat in Cork South Central

Outside chances but unlikely are:
Dublin Fingal
Dublin South West

I don't see any other realistic possibilities of seat gains and if even if you're to give FG all those seats plus all the ones they already hold, that's an absolute maximum of 55.

They are defending so many seats that unless they have a very, very good day, I think they'll be well down into the 40s.

Dun Laoghaire is a guaranteed loss of one seat for them and there's a very good chance they'll lose two.

Other possible losses are:
Dublin Bay South
Dublin North West
Meath East
Louth
Wicklow
Wexford
Limerick County
Galway West
Clare

I have a feeling Donegal could be one to watch as well as regards a possible Fine Gael seat loss.

So if take all those together, a showing in the 30s for FG is by no means impossible.

AMKC · 15-01-2020 12:36pm

So already its starting to get nasty. This could be a nasty election. Micheal Martin saying Fine Gael did not do everyything thy promised they would do like in health and housing.

Ludo · 15-01-2020 1:16pm

AMKC wrote: »

So already its starting to get nasty. This could be a nasty election. Micheal Martin saying Fine Gael did not do everyything thy promised they would do like in health and housing.

Is that really nasty though? Pretty standard harmless stuff in fairness. Rather than offering good workable solutions, just say the other side didn't solve it/caused it (delete as appropriate).
Nothing nasty about that.

L1011 · 15-01-2020 2:18pm

toleratethis wrote: »

Has Marian Harkin a shot at a seat, she was a good MEP.

Very good shot. Held it before the dual mandate ban

ddarcy · 15-01-2020 2:49pm

L1011 wrote: »

Very good shot. Held it before the dual mandate ban

FG are running a bunch of unknown eejits in Sligo. So she could very well take the FG vote. There’s also the issue that people here can’t stand Leo so it would be giving the two fingers to FG in a way but keeping a FG type of candidate. So in essence a protest vote. She smells blood and can realistically take a seat.

sid waddell · 15-01-2020 2:55pm

is_that_so wrote: »

Deary has no hope and never did but his transfers will be good for someone, possibly Nash.

Why not?

He pulled in over 3k first preferences in 2016 at a time when the Greens were still not far off rock bottom.

The Green vote is likely to more than double nationally this time, it could multiply by three or four times. If Dearey doubles or near doubles his first preference vote, and I don't think that's impossible or even unlikely, he's likely to take a seat on transfers.

Gerry Adams is retiring and SF are likely to lose a seat here.

Peter Fitzpatrick is no longer FG and will probably lose his seat and FG are unlikely to pick up two.

Ged Nash has a big shot at retaking his seat.

FG, FF and SF will take one each.

That means the remaining two seats will be fought out between Labour, Green, FF2, Fitzpatrick and possibly SF2.

I think Dearey stands an excellent chance there and it could even be him with Nash to tip the balance to three left, two right seats.

Water John · 15-01-2020 4:47pm

An Ciarraioch had posted this, which is Eoin O'Malley's predictions.
https://politicalreform.ie/2020/01/15/early-2020-election-predictions/

In short FF 58 FG 44

gavinoontheweb · 15-01-2020 5:09pm

Dublin Rathdown (3 seater): Madigan (FG) & Martin (GP) should be safe

Battle for the last seat between: Ross (IND), McCarthy (LAB), Richmond (FG) or Brennan (FF)

Larbre34 · 15-01-2020 5:19pm

It occurs that FGs selection policy generally and tactical approach to some constituencies in particular is abysmal.

Leo has been frankly negligent is his oversight of development of the party in the way a Haughey or Ahern would have been. Aside from age related retirements, some of those strolling off the FG stage at an early age are a strong signal of that.

L1011 · 15-01-2020 5:25pm

Water John wrote: »

An Ciarraioch had posted this, which is Eoin O'Malley's predictions.
https://politicalreform.ie/2020/01/15/early-2020-election-predictions/

In short FF 58 FG 44

5 for "radical left"? Seem to be counting Catherine Cleary as one of them but also have SolRPBP holding seats in areas they were wiped out in in May (and November in one)

Not noticing much else particularly odd as yet.

Agent Smith · 15-01-2020 5:26pm

gavinoontheweb wrote: »

Dublin Rathdown (3 seater): Madigan (FG) & Martin (GP) should be safe

Battle for the last seat between: Ross (IND), McCarthy (LAB), Richmond (FG) or Brennan (FF)

Richmond Has been Visable for the last 3 years every second night About brexit, He's a very strong contender for that 3rd seat

blanch152 · 15-01-2020 5:29pm

Water John wrote: »

An Ciarraioch had posted this, which is Eoin O'Malley's predictions.
https://politicalreform.ie/2020/01/15/early-2020-election-predictions/

In short FF 58 FG 44

FF 58, SF 17 gives 75, with independent support (Healy-Raes anyone?) gets a majority.

FF 58, LAB 9, Greens 7, Soc Dems 3, gives 77, 79 with the Healy-Raes. An FG Ceann Comhairle and they are nearly there.

gavinoontheweb · 15-01-2020 5:30pm

Agent Smith wrote: »

Richmond Has been Visable for the last 3 years every second night About brexit, He's a very strong contender for that 3rd seat

Depends on the extent of the collapse in the Ross vote, himself and Richmond have a Stepaside base. McCarthy will pick up votes there also.

Water John · 15-01-2020 5:35pm

MM will not go into coalition with SF. If it means FF going in with SF he will not be Taoiseach.
By far his preference would be the Rainbow Coalition. He will need a good social policy to take the other three parties on board.
Rarely do a varied opposition unite to vote you down. Having arrangements with a number of Inds, Grealish & Lowry. They have been consistent in supporting whomsoever they have an arrangement with.

Larbre34 · 15-01-2020 5:36pm

You're wasting your time with the Maths lads, it'll be Confidence and Supply II - Supply Harder, only Meehole will be the big T and there'll be no independent ministers, cos lets face it both FG and FF are convinced in hindsight that it was a wholly unnecessary fig-leaf last time around.

Besides which, with McGrath and Halligan off the pitch, the only independents left will be Zappone and a cohort of loo-lahs unfit to manage the bingo takings not to mind a senior ministry. And I include Sir Winston Churchtown in that.

FF 56 FG 44 - a nice round Hundert and Joanie Burton for Ceann Comhairle!

L1011 · 15-01-2020 5:45pm

Larbre34 wrote: »

You're wasting your time with the Maths lads, it'll be Confidence and Supply II - Supply Harder, only Meehole will be the big T and there'll be no independent ministers, cos lets face it both FG and FF are convinced in hindsight that it was a wholly unnecessary fig-leaf last time around.

Besides which, with McGrath and Halligan off the pitch, the only independents left will be Zappone and a cohort of loo-lahs unfit to manage the bingo takings not to mind a senior ministry. And I include Sir Winston Churchtown in that.

FF 56 FG 44 - a nice round Hundert and Joanie Burton for Ceann Comhairle!

Zappone's expenses will have cost her votes, as will testifying at the Jobstown trial. I'm far from convinced she'll survive. 100 votes over the chasing FG candidate last time; and was massively behind until the last transfers.

If Burton's back in she'd jump at CC because that constituency is never anything other than a bloodbath. But I'm not sure anyone would want to offer it to her!

timmyntc · 15-01-2020 5:52pm

I feel the "Green wave" might be overexaggerated a bit.

European elections would give some hope - but the reality is when push comes to shove social issues (including climate crisis) comes a distant second to the issues of the day - rental crisis and spiralling insurance costs.

If the Greens can come up with a cohesive strategy to tackle both of these (one without the introduction of more regressive taxation) then they should make good gains. Otherwise, I'd expect similar number to 2016.

Water John · 15-01-2020 5:57pm

If the train is Green this election, and it looks like it is, nothing can stop that. Getting it to transfer into seats is their main issue. Remember before, and it also happened with Lb another time, when they should have run two candidates in some constituencies.

sid waddell · 15-01-2020 6:04pm

timmyntc wrote: »

I feel the "Green wave" might be overexaggerated a bit.

European elections would give some hope - but the reality is when push comes to shove social issues (including climate crisis) comes a distant second to the issues of the day - rental crisis and spiralling insurance costs.

If the Greens can come up with a cohesive strategy to tackle both of these (one without the introduction of more regressive taxation) then they should make good gains. Otherwise, I'd expect similar number to 2016.

I'm not so sure. The Greens got two seats in 2016. They'll have plenty more this time whatever happens.

Their vote could well be heavily concentrated, ie. they aren't going to get much of a vote in Cork North West or South West or Galway East or Roscommon or Donegal or Cavan-Monaghan etc., but where they get a good vote, they could be in a position to make it count.

And crucially, they'll be very transfer friendly.

sid waddell · 15-01-2020 6:14pm

What are Labour's prospects?

They currently have 7 seats - Howlin (Wexford), Ryan (Fingal), Kelly (Tipperary), Penrose (Longford-Westmeath), Burton (Dublin West), O'Sullivan (Limerick City), Sherlock (Cork East).

I'd expect Howlin and Sherlock to be returned.

Ryan and Penrose are standing down.

Labour have a chance of holding the seat in Fingal I think but Longford-Westmeath will be lost.

Burton, Kelly and O'Sullivan will all face huge battles to hold on and all three could easily go.

As for potential gains, you're looking at Aodhan O'Riordain (Dublin Bay North), Ged Nash (Louth) and Kevin Humphries (Dublin Bay South). The first two have a great chance, Humphries is probably an underdog.

After that Mark Wall in Kildare South and maybe Cork North Central are the only two hopes I can see.

It looks grim enough for them and they'll be doing well just to stand still.

FrancieBrady · 15-01-2020 6:16pm

timmyntc wrote: »

I feel the "Green wave" might be overexaggerated a bit.

European elections would give some hope - but the reality is when push comes to shove social issues (including climate crisis) comes a distant second to the issues of the day - rental crisis and spiralling insurance costs.

If the Greens can come up with a cohesive strategy to tackle both of these (one without the introduction of more regressive taxation) then they should make good gains. Otherwise, I'd expect similar number to 2016.

I think a lot depends on how the Greens are treated in this one. If another party goes after their policies on the basis of what they will cost joe soap I would predict a fall back in their surge.

FrancieBrady · 15-01-2020 6:19pm

sid waddell wrote: »

I'm not so sure. The Greens got two seats in 2016. They'll have plenty more this time whatever happens.

Their vote could well be heavily concentrated, ie. they aren't going to get much of a vote in Cork North West or South West or Galway East or Roscommon or Donegal or Cavan-Monaghan etc., but where they get a good vote, they could be in a position to make it count.

And crucially, they'll be very transfer friendly.

They are standing a very young first time candidate in Cavan/Monaghan and have no real profile as a working party on the ground here. I'd be surprised if they figure in the final running.

seamus · 15-01-2020 6:34pm

First online ads coming out.

FF going for the "Ireland has crises and we can fix them" schtick, and it's not going down well.

FG going for the "Don't change a jockey in the middle of the race" approach - taking a leaf out of Boris's book and making this an election about making the best of Brexit.

Based on that alone, I'd say FG have gone for the right message, but I don't know if it'll make a huge difference

is_that_so · 15-01-2020 6:54pm

sid waddell wrote: »

Why not?

He pulled in over 3k first preferences in 2016 at a time when the Greens were still not far off rock bottom.

The Green vote is likely to more than double nationally this time, it could multiply by three or four times. If Dearey doubles or near doubles his first preference vote, and I don't think that's impossible or even unlikely, he's likely to take a seat on transfers.

Gerry Adams is retiring and SF are likely to lose a seat here.

Peter Fitzpatrick is no longer FG and will probably lose his seat and FG are unlikely to pick up two.

Ged Nash has a big shot at retaking his seat.

FG, FF and SF will take one each.

That means the remaining two seats will be fought out between Labour, Green, FF2, Fitzpatrick and possibly SF2.

I think Dearey stands an excellent chance there and it could even be him with Nash to tip the balance to three left, two right seats.

It's all about geography and Deary has been polling about that for multiple elections. He'd need to hit about 10% to be in with a chance.

There will be a Dundalk and Drogheda TD, that's FG and FF. There will also, based on average support, be a SF seat.

Fitzpatrick has no hope as the vote was a FG vote, evidenced by the need to manage votes on both occasions.

For the final two seats you'd expect the FG vote management to do its business again as they have a very good vote getter in O'Dowd and that should bring in the second FG candidate. They nailed two seats in 2016 off barely 20% of the FPVs

FF No 2 is a non-entity and the field is too crowded in the south to make any impact and he will not figure.

SF face a challenge in their own vote management. Munster is no Adams and Dundalk candidate is a newbie. If that vote was all Adams they'll struggle.

Nash would probably be favoured to nick that last seat. He is well-liked and was just shy in 2016.

So 1 FF, 2 FG, 1 SF and one of SF or Labour.

Frank Bullitt · 15-01-2020 7:47pm

When will we get any idea of polls etc?

blanch152 · 15-01-2020 8:11pm

is_that_so wrote: »

It's all about geography and Deary has been polling about that for multiple elections. He'd need to hit about 10% to be in with a chance.

There will be a Dundalk and Drogheda TD, that's FG and FF. There will also, based on average support, be a SF seat.

Fitzpatrick has no hope as the vote was a FG vote, evidenced by the need to manage votes on both occasions.

For the final two seats you'd expect the FG vote management to do its business again as they have a very good vote getter in O'Dowd and that should bring in the second FG candidate. They nailed two seats in 2016 off barely 20% of the FPVs

FF No 2 is a non-entity and the field is too crowded in the south to make any impact and he will not figure.

SF face a challenge in their own vote management. Munster is no Adams and Dundalk candidate is a newbie. If that vote was all Adams they'll struggle.

Nash would probably be favoured to nick that last seat. He is well-liked and was just shy in 2016.

So 1 FF, 2 FG, 1 SF and one of SF or Labour.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Louth_County_Council_election

Had a look at the local election results. Greens got 6.4%, but they only ran in three of the five wards.

Across those three wards, their average vote was 9.3%. While a Green seat is unlikely, it is not impossible.

Water John · 15-01-2020 8:17pm

MM may already have an understanding with the Healy Raes;
https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/fianna-fail-strategy-fuels-speculation-of-deal-with-healy-rae-brothers-975715.html

robman60 · 15-01-2020 8:31pm

sid waddell wrote: »

What are Labour's prospects?

They currently have 7 seats - Howlin (Wexford), Ryan (Fingal), Kelly (Tipperary), Penrose (Longford-Westmeath), Burton (Dublin West), O'Sullivan (Limerick City), Sherlock (Cork East).

I'd expect Howlin and Sherlock to be returned.

Ryan and Penrose are standing down.

Labour have a chance of holding the seat in Fingal I think but Longford-Westmeath will be lost.

Burton, Kelly and O'Sullivan will all face huge battles to hold on and all three could easily go.

As for potential gains, you're looking at Aodhan O'Riordain (Dublin Bay North), Ged Nash (Louth) and Kevin Humphries (Dublin Bay South). The first two have a great chance, Humphries is probably an underdog.

After that Mark Wall in Kildare South and maybe Cork North Central are the only two hopes I can see.

It looks grim enough for them and they'll be doing well just to stand still.

Kelly will get in too. Five seater in Tipp so he will get in as the left winger there.

Still though, I agree with your sentiment. I think they may drop even further from their trouncing in 2016. The young urban they presumably do better with are likely to be lost to the Greens I'd say. I took the Paddy Power bet of Under 8.5 seats at 5/6. I think they'll be in the 4-6 region so seemed like value to me.

sid waddell · 15-01-2020 8:55pm

robman60 wrote: »

Kelly will get in too. Five seater in Tipp so he will get in as the left winger there.

Still though, I agree with your sentiment. I think they may drop even further from their trouncing in 2016. The young urban they presumably do better with are likely to be lost to the Greens I'd say. I took the Paddy Power bet of Under 8.5 seats at 5/6. I think they'll be in the 4-6 region so seemed like value to me.

I think the left wing Independent Seamus Healy is running again? He's been a TD for donkey's years but must be quite old at this stage. His vote seems very solid and he's South Tipp which I think is a benefit to him.

Kelly only got in very narrowly last time, Healy a bit more comfortably.

Lowry, McGrath and Cahill (FF) are nailed on there you'd think with the remaining two in play between Healy, Kelly, FG and FF2.

I'd be leaning towards FF2 (Sandra Farrell) having enough for one of those seats and she is North Tipp which is bad for Kelly, as he's North Tipp as well.

Lowry takes a huge chunk of the FG vote like Naughten does in Roscommon, so that's how FG didn't get a seat last time. They could miss out again.

I'd be going with Lowry (IND), McGrath (IND), Cahill (FF), Healy (left IND), Farrell (FF), in that order.

If Labour are 5/6 for under 8.5 seats I'd say that's an absolute banker.

beggars_bush · 15-01-2020 9:37pm

Once again I hope no FG seat in Roscommon

People have long memories and they don't forget Enda Kenny standing up in the square telling lies about the local hospital

Water John · 15-01-2020 9:43pm

Naughton did SFA as a Minister, as did most of the Inds in Cabinet.

beggars_bush · 15-01-2020 9:44pm

Water John wrote: »

Naughton did SFA as a Minister, as did most of the Inds in Cabinet.

His marriage broke up because of it

Plus the national broadband was eventually signed

PS, I don't have a vote in that constituency

Frank Bullitt · 15-01-2020 10:18pm

The David McWilliams podcast will be my saving grace for this election.

FrancieBrady · 15-01-2020 10:20pm

sid waddell wrote: »

What are Labour's prospects?

They currently have 7 seats - Howlin (Wexford), Ryan (Fingal), Kelly (Tipperary), Penrose (Longford-Westmeath), Burton (Dublin West), O'Sullivan (Limerick City), Sherlock (Cork East).

I'd expect Howlin and Sherlock to be returned.

Ryan and Penrose are standing down.

Labour have a chance of holding the seat in Fingal I think but Longford-Westmeath will be lost.

Burton, Kelly and O'Sullivan will all face huge battles to hold on and all three could easily go.

As for potential gains, you're looking at Aodhan O'Riordain (Dublin Bay North), Ged Nash (Louth) and Kevin Humphries (Dublin Bay South). The first two have a great chance, Humphries is probably an underdog.

After that Mark Wall in Kildare South and maybe Cork North Central are the only two hopes I can see.

It looks grim enough for them and they'll be doing well just to stand still.

Vincent Browne doesn't think much of them

https://twitter.com/vincentbrowne/status/1217549914604961797

KevRossi · 15-01-2020 11:17pm

beggars_bush wrote: »

Once again I hope no FG seat in Roscommon

People have long memories and they don't forget Enda Kenny standing up in the square telling lies about the local hospital

Michael Fitzmaurice will get a seat as he says what people want to hear.
Denis Naughten will get one, due to hospital, his name and good groundwork. He isn't putting up any posters it seems, according to this weeks Roscommon Herald.

FG were prepping Sen. Maura Hopkins for this election, but she had a baby in December and is not running, seems they have Cllr Aisling Dolan from Ballinasloe running. She was an Independent until early December. I don't see her getting in. Big FG vote in south Roscommon will go to Naughten.

Which leaves the final seat to FF, held by Eugene Murphy. Murphy is from north Roscommon (Strokestown) but they just lost 8,000 voters to Sligo-Leitrim. Now they decided to run Orla Leyden (daughter of Terry Leyden), so could be interesting to see what happens as she is in the middle of the constituency. I think she will do OK, but Murphy is liked and she is not the most popular.

Prediction:

Fitzmaurice - Ind
Naughten - Ind
Murphy - FF

mgn · 15-01-2020 11:17pm

beggars_bush wrote: »

Once again I hope no FG seat in Roscommon

People have long memories and they don't forget Enda Kenny standing up in the square telling lies about the local hospital

Not a hope will FG get a seat.

Denis Naughten and Michael Fitzmaurice are dead certs, Eugene Murphy (FF) should get the third seat, but early days yet, he has not a high profile nationally but keeps busy locally and is well liked.

farmerval · 15-01-2020 11:40pm

sid waddell wrote: »

I think the left wing Independent Seamus Healy is running again? He's been a TD for donkey's years but must be quite old at this stage. His vote seems very solid and he's South Tipp which I think is a benefit to him.

Kelly only got in very narrowly last time, Healy a bit more comfortably.

Lowry, McGrath and Cahill (FF) are nailed on there you'd think with the remaining two in play between Healy, Kelly, FG and FF2.

I'd be leaning towards FF2 (Sandra Farrell) having enough for one of those seats and she is North Tipp which is bad for Kelly, as he's North Tipp as well.

Lowry takes a huge chunk of the FG vote like Naughten does in Roscommon, so that's how FG didn't get a seat last time. They could miss out again.

I'd be going with Lowry (IND), McGrath (IND), Cahill (FF), Healy (left IND), Farrell (FF), in that order.

If Labour are 5/6 for under 8.5 seats I'd say that's an absolute banker.

Alan Kelly's brother Declan is the man behind Teneo who sponsored the Tipp Hurlers in a very high profile way this year. Won't do him any harm in the election.

hotmail.com · 15-01-2020 11:45pm

RTE reporter predicted tonight that Joan Burton will lose her seat in Dublin West, with a Green gain. Coppinger to hold her seat according to this pundit. Very tight contest.

markodaly · 16-01-2020 12:23am

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Vincent Browne doesn't think much of them

https://twitter.com/vincentbrowne/status/1217549914604961797

Well Vincent Brown was thinking about running for the Dail in 2011 with Fintan o'Toole and his like. However, he couldnt get this posters printed in time, so didn't bother.

hotmail.com · 16-01-2020 12:26am

markodaly wrote: »

Well Vincent Brown was thinking about running for the Dail in 2011 with Fintan o'Toole and his like. However, he couldnt get this posters printed in time, so didn't bother.

I think you're thinking of Eamon Dunphy.

FrancieBrady · 16-01-2020 12:26am

markodaly wrote: »

Well Vincent Brown was thinking about running for the Dail in 2011 with Fintan o'Toole and his like. However, he couldnt get this posters printed in time, so didn't bother.

An entire government firing millions at the problem can't seem to get a printer switched on. :rolleyes:

Does not running preclude you from having an opinion now? Would rule a lot of pundits out so.

Do you agre with what he says btw?

FrancieBrady · 16-01-2020 12:30am

hotmail.com wrote: »

I think you're thinking of Eamon Dunphy.

Yeh, I think you are right. Vincent's dalliance with the idea was when he was a lot younger I think. 80's/90's maybe?

markodaly · 16-01-2020 1:38am

The more serious point about VB and others of his ilk are that they are like the Puritans of old.

They are not a pragmatic people, as evidenced by the ability or lack of, to print off some posters. They are however, the classic hurler on the ditch. Forever complaining and giving out about the state of affairs, yet rarely lifting a finger to help, while they enjoy comfortable standards of living. There are loads of people and especially commentators who are always quick to give their account on RTE or Newstalk.

This is also a problem with left wing parties and people in Ireland. Always trying to out do the other in being more 'right-on', 'woke' or pure then the other. leftie. RBB is a great example of this. Yet if you ever gave people like that actual decision making responsibility or roles they wouldnt know what to do.

At least Labour would go into power, which is more than can be said for many other of their ilk.

However, I do not expect this election to be kind to them. They will do well to remain as they are as the left vote will go to the Greens.

General Election and Government Formation Megathread (see post #1)

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