General Election and Government Formation Megathread (see post #1)

zimmermania · 16-01-2020 1:50am

sid waddell wrote: »

What are Labour's prospects?

They currently have 7 seats - Howlin (Wexford), Ryan (Fingal), Kelly (Tipperary), Penrose (Longford-Westmeath), Burton (Dublin West), O'Sullivan (Limerick City), Sherlock (Cork East).

I'd expect Howlin and Sherlock to be returned.

Ryan and Penrose are standing down.

Labour have a chance of holding the seat in Fingal I think but Longford-Westmeath will be lost.

Burton, Kelly and O'Sullivan will all face huge battles to hold on and all three could easily go.

As for potential gains, you're looking at Aodhan O'Riordain (Dublin Bay North), Ged Nash (Louth) and Kevin Humphries (Dublin Bay South). The first two have a great chance, Humphries is probably an underdog.

After that Mark Wall in Kildare South and maybe Cork North Central are the only two hopes I can see.

It looks grim enough for them and they'll be doing well just to stand still.

Kelly is a cert and the most admired woman in Ireland will be campaigning for him which wont do him any harm.

FrancieBrady · 16-01-2020 1:53am

markodaly wrote: »

The more serious point about VB and others of his ilk are that they are like the Puritans of old.

They are not a pragmatic people, as evidenced by the ability or lack of, to print off some posters. They are however, the classic hurler on the ditch. Forever complaining and giving out about the state of affairs, yet rarely lifting a finger to help, while they enjoy comfortable standards of living. There are loads of people and especially commentators who are always quick to give their account on RTE or Newstalk.

This is also a problem with left wing parties and people in Ireland. Always trying to out do the other in being more 'right-on', 'woke' or pure then the other. leftie. RBB is a great example of this. Yet if you ever gave people like that actual decision making responsibility or roles they wouldnt know what to do.

At least Labour would go into power, which is more than can be said for many other of their ilk.

However, I do not expect this election to be kind to them. They will do well to remain as they are as the left vote will go to the Greens.

That's the problem...Labour go into government but not power.

beggars_bush · 16-01-2020 8:54am

FrancieBrady wrote: »

That's the problem...Labour go into government but not power.

Sure that's the same for parties across Europe

Hasn't Finland just formed a government with 4 parties involved?

FrancieBrady · 16-01-2020 9:35am

beggars_bush wrote: »

Sure that's the same for parties across Europe

Hasn't Finland just formed a government with 4 parties involved?

No idea about Finland.

The perception (rightly or wrongly) that Labour have to change is that they will go into government for selfish reasons and leave Labour principles and voters behind. I would blame a lot of that perception on Joan Burton and Pat Rabbitte's performances when in Government.

is_that_so · 16-01-2020 9:36am

blanch152 wrote: »

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Louth_County_Council_election

Had a look at the local election results. Greens got 6.4%, but they only ran in three of the five wards.

Across those three wards, their average vote was 9.3%. While a Green seat is unlikely, it is not impossible.

Yeah, but they lost a seat!
Locals can give a general indication of support level but none of who might get elected. Turnout is also a good deal lower. He'd have to beat most of them on FPVs and that is on the impossible end of things given his geography -out of Dundalk.

is_that_so · 16-01-2020 9:39am

Gintonious wrote: »

The David McWilliams podcast will be my saving grace for this election.

Unctuous and smug are the two words that come to mind but I hope you enjoy it!:)

Bishop of hope · 16-01-2020 9:42am

FrancieBrady wrote: »

No idea about Finland.

The perception (rightly or wrongly) that Labour have to change is that they will go into government for selfish reasons and leave Labour principles and voters behind. I would blame a lot of that perception on Joan Burton and Pat Rabbitte's performances when in Government.

I see Matt Carty is planning to run for a Dail seat.
I suppose you can vote SF this time Francie?
Also, do you think SF have to at some stage soon step up and seriously negotiate with with the largest party after the election with a view to going into Govt, rather than the hiding job they done in 16?

antimatterx · 16-01-2020 11:06am

is_that_so wrote: »

Unctuous and smug are the two words that come to mind but I hope you enjoy it!:)

It's a very entertaining, informative podcast

is_that_so · 16-01-2020 11:07am

antimatterx wrote: »

It's a very entertaining, informative podcast

It's that supercilious voice!:(

Water John · 16-01-2020 12:42pm

We're all largely stuck with the accent we have, if you can't get past that! Always liked D McW.
BTW all 4 parties in Govn't in Finland are lead by women.

Bishop of hope · 16-01-2020 12:44pm

Water John wrote: »

We're all largely stuck with the accent we have, if you can't get past that! Always liked D McW.
BTW all 4 parties in Govn't in Finland are lead by women.

Be war over there so:).

robman60 · 16-01-2020 1:17pm

Where will Penrose's seat go? Would have thought that's a likely labour loss as it wouldn't be a place you'd expect them to do well enough to take a seat.

Bishop of hope · 16-01-2020 1:29pm

robman60 wrote: »

Where will Penrose's seat go? Would have thought that's a likely labour loss as it wouldn't be a place you'd expect them to do well enough to take a seat.

Local opinion here is they will lose it, but don't discount the new candidate holding it for certain.

https://www.longfordleader.ie/news/home/509285/longford-to-restore-balance-in-general-election-2020.html

is_that_so · 16-01-2020 1:43pm

Water John wrote: »

We're all largely stuck with the accent we have, if you can't get past that! Always liked D McW.
BTW all 4 parties in Govn't in Finland are lead by women.

We're not really. You can rework it. Just don't like him.

Water John · 16-01-2020 1:48pm

Yes, Maggie Thatcher reworked hers but it didn't change her spots.

nc6000 · 16-01-2020 2:20pm

zimmermania wrote: »

Kelly is a cert and the most admired woman in Ireland will be campaigning for him which wont do him any harm.

Who is that?

robman60 · 16-01-2020 2:20pm

Paddy Power offering 11/10 on under 9.5 seats for Greens. Somewhat tempted to bite but not sure. They'll pick up a few labour/urban seats I reckon and get to 7 or so but I don't know if they have broad enough support to hit double digits.

Sierra Oscar · 16-01-2020 3:47pm

Gintonious wrote: »

When will we get any idea of polls etc?

There's a few due out over the weekend.

sid waddell · 16-01-2020 3:59pm

Maureen O'Sullivan not standing in Dublin Central.

The constituency is expanding to four seats.

Mary Lou McDonald and Paschal Donoghue will take two and I'd fancy Gary Gannon to get seat 3. That leaves seat 4 between Fianna Fail and Christy Burke who has been running for decades without ever being elected to the Dail.

I fancy he has a great chance this time and if I had to make a prediction, I think he'll do it.

PopePalpatine · 16-01-2020 4:35pm

blanch152 wrote: »

FF 58, SF 17 gives 75, with independent support (Healy-Raes anyone?) gets a majority.

FF 58, LAB 9, Greens 7, Soc Dems 3, gives 77, 79 with the Healy-Raes. An FG Ceann Comhairle and they are nearly there.

I wonder what compromises would need to be made to get the Healy-Raes and the Greens in the same coalition. Maybe cycle lanes alongside every boreen in Kerry?

Amirani · 16-01-2020 4:37pm

sid waddell wrote: »

As for potential gains, you're looking at Aodhan O'Riordain (Dublin Bay North), Ged Nash (Louth) and Kevin Humphries (Dublin Bay South). The first two have a great chance, Humphries is probably an underdog.

After that Mark Wall in Kildare South and maybe Cork North Central are the only two hopes I can see.

It looks grim enough for them and they'll be doing well just to stand still.

Joe Costello has a bit of a chance in Dublin Central given it's become a 4 seater and incumbent Maureen O'Sullivan isn't running again.

blanch152 · 16-01-2020 4:46pm

PopePalpatine wrote: »

I wonder what compromises would need to be made to get the Healy-Raes and the Greens in the same coalition. Maybe cycle lanes alongside every boreen in Kerry?

Public transport to collect and bring home every drunk in North Kerry.

Amirani · 16-01-2020 4:53pm

sid waddell wrote: »

The constituency is expanding to four seats.

Mary Lou McDonald and Paschal Donoghue will take two and I'd fancy Gary Gannon to get seat 3. That leaves seat 4 between Fianna Fail and Christy Burke who has been running for decades without ever being elected to the Dail.

I think Mary Fitzpatrick gets seat #3.

Neasa Hourigan of the greens likely to be a contender for seat 4 also - she outpolled Gannon in Dublin City Council elections last year and was elected on the 1st count. Gannon only elected on count 9.

LordBasil · 16-01-2020 4:59pm

Amirani wrote: »

I think Mary Fitzpatrick gets seat #3.

Neasa Hourigan of the greens likely to be a contender for seat 4 also - she outpolled Gannon in Dublin City Council elections last year and was elected on the 1st count. Gannon only elected on count 9.

In fairness to Gannon, he moved Dublin City Council ward from North Inner City to Cabra-Glasnevin so lost his base who will be able to vote for him in the GE so should not be written off.

Amirani · 16-01-2020 5:17pm

LordBasil wrote: »

In fairness to Gannon, he moved Dublin City Council ward from North Inner City to Cabra-Glasnevin so lost his base who will be able to vote for him in the GE so should not be written off.

Yep, very valid point there to be fair. I'm definitely not writing him off. I'd have him as most likely to get seat #4 right now, but Hourigan would have a chance at it if there's a lot of move towards the Greens.

Water John · 16-01-2020 5:24pm

It's in those urban constituencies you have to watch for signs of a, 'Green train'.

KevRossi · 16-01-2020 5:49pm

7 declared candidates in Roscommon so far: 3 male - 4 female.

PieOhMy · 16-01-2020 10:27pm

When is the closing date for candidates?

Recently moved to that Dublin central constituency, cant say I know any candidates here apart from Pascal and Mary Lou. Re the green train in urban areas would you think that it would be more prominent in more middle/well off urban areas than this one? I mean theres plenty well off professionals in the IFSC area but so many foreign or not from Dublin/will not vote here. The locals may be a different type of urban demographic than the greens would typically target?

Kh1993 · 16-01-2020 11:45pm

LordBasil wrote: »

In fairness to Gannon, he moved Dublin City Council ward from North Inner City to Cabra-Glasnevin so lost his base who will be able to vote for him in the GE so should not be written off.

Gannon also got a quite decent vote in the MEP elections, if I recall too didn’t he move local constituency to try get another SD candidate in? Anyway, think he’s a good chance, but probably for a 4th seat. Costello/Gannon/Fitzpatrick take 2 of 3 seats there imo.

In terms of the Soc Dems, Cian O’Callaghan should poll well in Dublin bay north. Prob won’t get elected but if he can come before the Green candidate he could grab a few transfers.

Chips Lovell · 17-01-2020 11:41am

There's a few threads on the go, but let's use this as a catch-all general thread for all things election.

We can kick it off with a poll

jem · 17-01-2020 11:46am

sid waddell wrote: »

I think the left wing Independent Seamus Healy is running again? He's been a TD for donkey's years but must be quite old at this stage. His vote seems very solid and he's South Tipp which I think is a benefit to him.

Kelly only got in very narrowly last time, Healy a bit more comfortably.

Lowry, McGrath and Cahill (FF) are nailed on there you'd think with the remaining two in play between Healy, Kelly, FG and FF2.

I'd be leaning towards FF2 (Sandra Farrell) having enough for one of those seats and she is North Tipp which is bad for Kelly, as he's North Tipp as well.

Lowry takes a huge chunk of the FG vote like Naughten does in Roscommon, so that's how FG didn't get a seat last time. They could miss out again.

I'd be going with Lowry (IND), McGrath (IND), Cahill (FF), Healy (left IND), Farrell (FF), in that order.

If Labour are 5/6 for under 8.5 seats I'd say that's an absolute banker.

Cant see this,
Kelly (whom I dont like) will do well, brother puting money into tipp hurling team, 15m into st conlons nursing home, cervical cancer madness etc.
Fg have two unknowns and both from south tipp - madness. should have ran coonan, votes dont cross north to south or visa versa very well,with smith not standing no one in Roscrea/ Templemore area think coonan could have taken a seat.
3 home and hosed- lowry, mcgrath and kelly ( probably cahil as well) leaving healy, & FG for last seat, I cant see farrell in the shakeup at all.

17-01-2020 12:18pm

The Over/Under on FF seats has crept up to 54.5. I'd have it at 58.5.

PTH2009 · 17-01-2020 12:35pm

I am on a stag in Germany on election day, is there anyway of voting abroad through mail/online etc ???

robman60 · 17-01-2020 12:37pm

PTH2009 wrote: »

I am on a stag in Germany on election day, is there anyway of voting abroad through mail/online etc ???

In a word, no. Basically the only way you can vote abroad is if you're on state business. Checked this out before for my parents, there's no holiday exception.

bren2001 · 17-01-2020 12:41pm

Kh1993 wrote: »

Gannon also got a quite decent vote in the MEP elections, if I recall too didn’t he move local constituency to try get another SD candidate in? Anyway, think he’s a good chance, but probably for a 4th seat. Costello/Gannon/Fitzpatrick take 2 of 3 seats there imo.

In terms of the Soc Dems, Cian O’Callaghan should poll well in Dublin bay north. Prob won’t get elected but if he can come before the Green candidate he could grab a few transfers.

I think Cian is an interesting one. His "base" is Bayside/Sutton/Howth area but got some decent returns in Drumcondra as well. The very interesting thing for him is where will Avril Powers votes go. She had quite a similar base (albeit her distribution is a little flatter than other candidates).

The question is, who's seat will he get? Bruton and Haughey, are effectively elected already. Mitchell is pretty much a certainty. That leaves 2 seats (McGraths and Broughans). I think Aodhan will take the 4th seat through a combination of Finian not standing and his votes going Bruton/Haughey/Aodhan coupled with some people who will return and vote Labour. He's been very active over St Annes and a few other bits.

Can Cian take Tommys seat? I don't think so. I don't think anybody can. Nobody has challenged Broughan in Donaghmeade/Killbarrick. I think Cian will come 7th after John Lyons.

EDIT: The GP are running David Healy. He has a decent chance as well. Hard to know how big a green wave exists in DBN. It'll be interesting to see where his votes come from.

McLoughlin · 17-01-2020 12:43pm

In Wexford a dozen or so candidates announced so far and Howlin will be getting the number one vote from me.

Water John · 17-01-2020 1:01pm

Wouldn't be familiar with the constituency, but the trick for any Green is staying up from the bottom in the first preferences and letting transfers take you over the line.

Chips Lovell · 17-01-2020 1:09pm

Paddy Holohan is in trouble again:

In the same podcast, Mr Holohan also suggested that "loads" of underage girls were having sex with men and then blackmailing them for sums of money up to €10,000.

Time to cut him lose I'd say, or at the very least keep him quiet until the election is over. He seems like an utter liability.

antimatterx · 17-01-2020 1:19pm

bren2001 wrote: »

I think Cian is an interesting one. His "base" is Bayside/Sutton/Howth area but got some decent returns in Drumcondra as well. The very interesting thing for him is where will Avril Powers votes go. She had quite a similar base (albeit her distribution is a little flatter than other candidates).

The question is, who's seat will he get? Bruton and Haughey, are effectively elected already. Mitchell is pretty much a certainty. That leaves 2 seats (McGraths and Broughans). I think Aodhan will take the 4th seat through a combination of Finian not standing and his votes going Bruton/Haughey/Aodhan coupled with some people who will return and vote Labour. He's been very active over St Annes and a few other bits.

Can Cian take Tommys seat? I don't think so. I don't think anybody can. Nobody has challenged Broughan in Donaghmeade/Killbarrick. I think Cian will come 7th after John Lyons.

EDIT: The GP are running David Healy. He has a decent chance as well. Hard to know how big a green wave exists in DBN. It'll be interesting to see where his votes come from.

I think Catherine Noone will scrape the last seat it. Would be a huge victory for FG to gain two seats in DBN

bren2001 · 17-01-2020 1:30pm

antimatterx wrote: »

I think Catherine Noone will scrape the last seat it. Would be a huge victory for FG to gain two seats in DBN

Naoise never threatened, Stephaine never threatened. Bruton will do well but I can't see a second seat for them there. Demographics don't suit two FG TDs.

namloc1980 · 17-01-2020 1:50pm

Where do I find list of candidates by constituency?

hiddenmongoose · 17-01-2020 1:50pm

Can anyone enlighten me on the gender quota for political parties in Ireland, and how it has or is (if at all) currently affecting parties?

Chips Lovell · 17-01-2020 1:52pm

Nominations don't close until January 22nd, so a full list won't be available till then. Most of the main parties have a list of candidates on their websites already though.

is_that_so · 17-01-2020 1:57pm

namloc1980 wrote: »

Where do I find list of candidates by constituency?

This has been posted a few times. It'll give you a general idea, otherwise the LA website once the nomination dates passes, which is next Wednesday 22nd January.

https://adriankavanaghelections.org/category/candidates-general-election-2020/

17-01-2020 2:09pm

Chips Lovell wrote: »

Paddy Holohan is in trouble again:

Time to cut him lose I'd say, or at the very least keep him quiet until the election is over. He seems like an utter liability.

Disciplinary action is underway, as per Mary-Lou.

Larbre34 · 17-01-2020 2:30pm

Kangaroo Court more like.

Larbre34 · 17-01-2020 2:30pm

McLoughlin wrote: »

In Wexford a dozen or so candidates announced so far and Howlin will be getting the number one vote from me.

Expect Brendan to get back no problem, but mark me folks, Verona Murphy is going to get elected.

blanch152 · 17-01-2020 2:33pm

bren2001 wrote: »

I think Cian is an interesting one. His "base" is Bayside/Sutton/Howth area but got some decent returns in Drumcondra as well. The very interesting thing for him is where will Avril Powers votes go. She had quite a similar base (albeit her distribution is a little flatter than other candidates).

The question is, who's seat will he get? Bruton and Haughey, are effectively elected already. Mitchell is pretty much a certainty. That leaves 2 seats (McGraths and Broughans). I think Aodhan will take the 4th seat through a combination of Finian not standing and his votes going Bruton/Haughey/Aodhan coupled with some people who will return and vote Labour. He's been very active over St Annes and a few other bits.

Can Cian take Tommys seat? I don't think so. I don't think anybody can. Nobody has challenged Broughan in Donaghmeade/Killbarrick. I think Cian will come 7th after John Lyons.

EDIT: The GP are running David Healy. He has a decent chance as well. Hard to know how big a green wave exists in DBN. It'll be interesting to see where his votes come from.

David Healy was a TD before.

sid waddell · 17-01-2020 2:35pm

I think some posters misunderstand the meaning of the word "certainty" as regards elections.

I've seen Alan Kelly in Tipp and Denise Mitchell in Dublin Bay North mentioned as "certainties" in the last couple of pages.

Both may well get in, the odds say they probably will, but certainties they are most certainly not.

I wouldn't even have Richard Bruton down as a certainty in Dublin Bay North given that his running mate is high profile and being pushed heavily by the party - though I do think it's very likely he'll get in.

sid waddell · 17-01-2020 2:38pm

Water John wrote: »

Wouldn't be familiar with the constituency, but the trick for any Green is staying up from the bottom in the first preferences and letting transfers take you over the line.

That's it exactly. Catherine Martin in Dublin Rathdown in 2016 was a classic example of this. She got huge transfers from everywhere.

That's why I think the Greens could actually overperform seat expectations.

General Election and Government Formation Megathread (see post #1)

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