General Election and Government Formation Megathread (see post #1)

Water John · 15-01-2020 12:29am

I'd say Renua will be running a good few candidates, if people wish to vote for them.

Lass1992 · 15-01-2020 12:30am

Gintonious wrote: »

Hopefully this election will rid Ireland of these donkeys once and for all.

What makes them donkeys though?

Fine Gael, Fianna Fail and Sinn Fein all stand for the same thing, pro EU, open borders, and anti free speech.

If I'm against all of those policies what other choice do I have other than independants?

blanch152 · 15-01-2020 12:30am

Lass1992 wrote: »

What about parties such as Irish Freedom Party, Irish National Party, Renua etc?

Trying to keep this thread politically neutral, so a fair question.

My post on the last election results mentioned Remus.

I would guess that the opinion polls leave them out because low support makes the figures unrealistic. I didn’t separate the other two for the last locals because they were statistically insignificant.

Lass1992 · 15-01-2020 12:34am

blanch152 wrote: »

Trying to keep this thread politically neutral, so a fair question.

My post on the last election results mentioned Remus.

I would guess that the opinion polls leave them out because low support makes the figures unrealistic. I didn’t separate the other two for the last locals because they were statistically insignificant.

I was just wondering if people are considering them. I don't want to vote sf, ff, fg or gp so the parties I mentioned are more in line with what I want, not totally but closer.

L1011 · 15-01-2020 12:38am

Lass1992 wrote: »

What about parties such as Irish Freedom Party, Irish National Party, Renua etc?

1% between them most likely

Thrashssacre · 15-01-2020 12:39am

They all seem to be running at least some candidates, the national party have a list of their candidates on their website so the option is there if people want to vote for them.

Doubt any of them have a chance of a seat though to be fair.

hotmail.com · 15-01-2020 12:39am

Lass1992 wrote: »

I was just wondering if people are considering them. I don't want to vote sf, ff, fg or gp so the parties I mentioned are more in line with what I want, not totally but closer.

They will be lucky to get 1%.

Perhaps try voting for a socially conservative independent in your constituency instead, if this is stuff that you base your vote on.

ninebeanrows · 15-01-2020 1:14am

I think when it all comes down to it the FFers will get 32% and FG will trail at 27%

Thrashssacre · 15-01-2020 1:16am

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

I think when it all comes down to it the FFers will get 32% and FG will trail at 27%

FF/green coalition possibly with the support of indiependants, the boom is back baby.

ninebeanrows · 15-01-2020 1:17am

Varadkar should have went to people in November when was strongman in Brexit negotiations

Since then health crisis has re emerged , some smugness off ministers has grown and some political miscalculations regarding the RIC thing

sid waddell · 15-01-2020 1:39am

Any big potential casualties?

I think Eoghan Murphy will lose his seat in Dublin Bay South. Kate O'Connell has made a good impression nationally and seems popular locally, whereas Murphy has had a complete nightmare over the last couple of years. O'Connell, Jim O'Callaghan and Eamon Ryan look nailed on for three of the four seats and Murphy will be fighting for his life for the last seat at best I think. Labour could gain a seat back there.

Regina Doherty will struggle in Meath East. Where the challenge to her comes from is the question but I think FG will do very well to hold two seats in a three seat constituency.

I have a feeling Shane Ross's vote will be well down in Dublin Rathdown, he'll probably have enough but I wouldn't rule a big shock there, either FF or FG2 to beat him - Neale Richmond is a strong candidate.

Peadar Toibin will struggle in Meath West after leaving Sinn Fein. He has to be Aontu's only chance of a seat and if he loses it's pretty much curtains for them as a party a la Renua 2016. He'll be relying on a personal vote.

Stephen Donnelly is at serious risk in Wicklow for me. His vote from 2016 will surely desert him en masse and existing FF supporters might not be hugely inclined to vote for him.

Not sure if Joan Burton is running this time but I think she'll lose out this time in Dublin West and Ruth Coppinger is at risk in the same constituency as well.

markodaly · 15-01-2020 1:54am

aw wrote: »

I caught Ivan Yates' analysis yesterday on Newstalk.

His GE prediction was quite interesting and the numbers are as follows:

FF to break 60 seats
FG to struggle to get to 40
Margin of error for both of the above: 2/3 seats

Green Party to go to 8
SF to fall to 17
Labour down 1 to 6

13 seats between the smaller parties/groups e.g SD, PBP
19 seats for Independents e.g Mattie McGrath, Healy Raes

Interesting analysis.

The only government to be formed then is:

FF/SF/Green
FF/SF/Labour
or FF/FG
or another minority government

I think it will be close between FF and FG, but FG will be hurt by the rise of the Greens and FF will eat away at the SF vote, which will mean two seats.

Also, winning three terms in power is extremely difficult, so its a natural course of events for FG to be out of power come Feb 9.
But, like the last time, we could be without a government for months and months while the other parties dance around the issues of a coalition.

sid waddell · 15-01-2020 1:55am

Where the Greens gain seats will be very interesting.

They'll definitely hold the three they currently have - Dublin Bay South, Dublin Rathdown and Fingal.

Likely gains for them in my view are as follows:
Dun Laoighaire (which may mean Richard Boyd Barrett gets edged out)
Dublin Bay North - Finian McGrath's retirement should boost their prospects
Louth - Mark Deary performed well there in 2016 and with Gerry Adams retiring that should boost his vote on top of the swing he would have got anyway

Then you're looking at possibles, especially places where they have had a seat previously:
Dublin Mid-West - the complicating factor here is that Paul Gogarty, who used to be a Green TD himself but is now independent, is running
Carlow-Kilkenny - the Greens will have their eye on the SF seat
Cork South Central - SF are again at risk here

Others to watch are:
Dublin West - seems the sort of constituency where they might have a chance
Wicklow - suburban constituency and the type of demographic that previously voted for Stephen Donnelly seems a good fit for the Greens this time

In terms of outside shots I'd be looking at:
Kildare North
Meath East
Meath West
Galway West
Any of the other Dublin constituencies

Saoirse McHugh should poll respectably in Mayo but it's hard to see her take a seat there.

markodaly · 15-01-2020 2:00am

The Greens have 3 seats but I would not be surprised if they come back with 8-10 seats next time out.
This will hurt the middle class FG vote and the urban Labour vote.

Larbre34 · 15-01-2020 2:12am

My feelings on Dun Laoghaire are 1 FG 1 FF 1 Grn 1 PBP.

There was traditionally a Labour seat there but since Gilmore nobody has come up to scratch. Deirdre Kingston withdrew and nobody else on the Council is of sufficient quality. They'd have to parachute in a huge name to figure, and there isn't one.

Larbre34 · 15-01-2020 2:14am

Either Joan or Coppinger will be returned in Dub West if both run. I do see an SF gain there though.

Dank Janniels · 15-01-2020 2:27am

Might be stating the obvious but these will be safe:

Dennis Naughton
Michael Fitzmaurice
Michael Healy Rae
Danny Healy Rae
Mattie McGrath
Boxer Moran
Michael Lowry
Noel Grelish

Catherine Murphy
Rosin Shortall

Eamon Ryan

Brendan Howlin
Alan Kelly

Aonghus O'Snodaigh
Mary Lou McDonald
Pearse Doherthy

Willie O'Dea
Micheal Martin
Michael McGrath

Richard Bruton
Simon Coveney
Leo Varadkar (possibly)

*its actually hard trying to think of all the others!

is_that_so · 15-01-2020 9:19am

sid waddell wrote: »

Louth - Mark Deary performed well there in 2016 and with Gerry Adams retiring that should boost his vote on top of the swing he would have got anyway

Deary has no hope and never did but his transfers will be good for someone, possibly Nash.

Russman · 15-01-2020 9:38am

markodaly wrote: »

The Greens have 3 seats but I would not be surprised if they come back with 8-10 seats next time out.
This will hurt the middle class FG vote and the urban Labour vote.

This could be on the money alright. I think the Greens will do well, call it the Greta effect. They're probably a natural enough fit for a disgruntled FG voter who won't go to Labour or FF, and also could impact on any Labour recovery, while still a fairly safe place for any totally undecideds.

Its probably not a bad election to lose for FG. Fair chance of a recession during the next few years, so get out, blame FF, get back in.

bren2001 · 15-01-2020 9:53am

Dank Janniels wrote: »

Might be stating the obvious but these will be safe:

Dennis Naughton
Michael Fitzmaurice
Michael Healy Rae
Danny Healy Rae
Mattie McGrath
Boxer Moran
Michael Lowry
Noel Grelish

Catherine Murphy
Rosin Shortall

Eamon Ryan

Brendan Howlin
Alan Kelly

Aonghus O'Snodaigh
Mary Lou McDonald
Pearse Doherthy

Willie O'Dea
Micheal Martin
Michael McGrath

Richard Bruton
Simon Coveney
Leo Varadkar (possibly)

*its actually hard trying to think of all the others!

In Dublin Bay North: Richard Bruton and Sean Haughey are safe. I'd go as far to say Denise Mitchel is also safe if SF only run the one (which I believe they are). Leaves 2 seats for the rest there.

is_that_so · 15-01-2020 9:58am

3 incumbents in Louth safe too 1 SF, 1 FF, 1 FG

is_that_so · 15-01-2020 10:04am

sid waddell wrote: »

Any big potential casualties?

I think Eoghan Murphy will lose his seat in Dublin Bay South. Kate O'Connell has made a good impression nationally and seems popular locally, whereas Murphy has had a complete nightmare over the last couple of years. O'Connell, Jim O'Callaghan and Eamon Ryan look nailed on for three of the four seats and Murphy will be fighting for his life for the last seat at best I think. Labour could gain a seat back there.

Regina Doherty will struggle in Meath East. Where the challenge to her comes from is the question but I think FG will do very well to hold two seats in a three seat constituency.

I have a feeling Shane Ross's vote will be well down in Dublin Rathdown, he'll probably have enough but I wouldn't rule a big shock there, either FF or FG2 to beat him - Neale Richmond is a strong candidate.

Peadar Toibin will struggle in Meath West after leaving Sinn Fein. He has to be Aontu's only chance of a seat and if he loses it's pretty much curtains for them as a party a la Renua 2016. He'll be relying on a personal vote.

Stephen Donnelly is at serious risk in Wicklow for me. His vote from 2016 will surely desert him en masse and existing FF supporters might not be hugely inclined to vote for him.

Not sure if Joan Burton is running this time but I think she'll lose out this time in Dublin West and Ruth Coppinger is at risk in the same constituency as well.

Doherty will be fine as the first thee are so far ahead of the rest but Toibin and SF will split the vote and probably result in neither getting a seat.
Donnelly is unlikely to struggle in Wicklow and he'll have running mates for the first time. I 'd say his share of the vote will drop by up to half but they'll use it for vote management.

Bishop of hope · 15-01-2020 10:08am

Dank Janniels wrote: »

Might be stating the obvious but these will be safe:

Dennis Naughton
Michael Fitzmaurice
Michael Healy Rae
Danny Healy Rae
Mattie McGrath
Boxer Moran
Michael Lowry
Noel Grelish

Catherine Murphy
Rosin Shortall

Eamon Ryan

Brendan Howlin
Alan Kelly

Aonghus O'Snodaigh
Mary Lou McDonald
Pearse Doherthy

Willie O'Dea
Micheal Martin
Michael McGrath

Richard Bruton
Simon Coveney
Leo Varadkar (possibly)

*its actually hard trying to think of all the others!

I'm not so sure on Boxer Moran, he picked a good few votes in Longford last time, he might not this time.
There are two new candidates in Longford this time, Flaherty for FF and Carrigy for FG.
Last time out MM imposed a candidate for FF that nobody in the local cumans wanted, nobody nearly campaigned for her and she lost out because of her Longford side of the vote was not the usual FF vote
FG had James Bannon, he lost his seat after being involved in a unfair dismissal case with his secretary and some poster stealing scandals.
There is no current TD in the county and as far as I know that makes Longford the only county without one.
I think Flaherty will do well and so will Carrigy, both popular local politicians.
If they mop up most of Longford and they should and likely even transfer from each other well, Moran might well find himself in a fight to keep his seat in Longford Westmeath.

LuasSimon · 15-01-2020 10:24am

aw wrote: »

I caught Ivan Yates' analysis yesterday on Newstalk.

His GE prediction was quite interesting and the numbers are as follows:

FF to break 60 seats
FG to struggle to get to 40
Margin of error for both of the above: 2/3 seats

Green Party to go to 8
SF to fall to 17
Labour down 1 to 6

13 seats between the smaller parties/groups e.g SD, PBP
19 seats for Independents e.g Mattie McGrath, Healy Raes

Fianna Fail at 8/11 to get most seats is a cracking bet

CrabRevolution · 15-01-2020 10:51am

sid waddell wrote: »

Any big potential casualties?

I think Eoghan Murphy will lose his seat in Dublin Bay South. Kate O'Connell has made a good impression nationally and seems popular locally, whereas Murphy has had a complete nightmare over the last couple of years. O'Connell, Jim O'Callaghan and Eamon Ryan look nailed on for three of the four seats and Murphy will be fighting for his life for the last seat at best I think. Labour could gain a seat back there.

Regina Doherty will struggle in Meath East. Where the challenge to her comes from is the question but I think FG will do very well to hold two seats in a three seat constituency.

I have a feeling Shane Ross's vote will be well down in Dublin Rathdown, he'll probably have enough but I wouldn't rule a big shock there, either FF or FG2 to beat him - Neale Richmond is a strong candidate.

Peadar Toibin will struggle in Meath West after leaving Sinn Fein. He has to be Aontu's only chance of a seat and if he loses it's pretty much curtains for them as a party a la Renua 2016. He'll be relying on a personal vote.

Stephen Donnelly is at serious risk in Wicklow for me. His vote from 2016 will surely desert him en masse and existing FF supporters might not be hugely inclined to vote for him.

Not sure if Joan Burton is running this time but I think she'll lose out this time in Dublin West and Ruth Coppinger is at risk in the same constituency as well.

Tóibín will be interesting in Meath West. He's been on election footing since leaving SF, writing an opinion or letter a week in the Meath Chronicle demanding a Navan Rail line (Though that didn't stop the Chronicle calling him out on plastering the county with his posters advertising what seem to be multiple weekly public meetings about crime and health).

He'll also be keen to avoid mentioning why he ever left Sinn Féin in the first place. I doubt many will believe him if he claims it was over anything other than abortion, not that there won't be those who agree with him on his pro-life stance. I'm not sure if it's enough to carry him to a seat though.

blanch152 · 15-01-2020 11:02am

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

I think when it all comes down to it the FFers will get 32% and FG will trail at 27%

That would be an interesting outcome.

Both FF and FG would gain seats, but FF would overtake FG.

If the Greens are also gaining seats, that means losses for the rest, which makes a coalition government harder to form.

toleratethis · 15-01-2020 11:39am

Has Marian Harkin a shot at a seat, she was a good MEP.

sid waddell · 15-01-2020 11:44am

CrabRevolution wrote: »

Tóibín will be interesting in Meath West. He's been on election footing since leaving SF, writing an opinion or letter a week in the Meath Chronicle demanding a Navan Rail line (Though that didn't stop the Chronicle calling him out on plastering the county with his posters advertising what seem to be multiple weekly public meetings about crime and health).

He'll also be keen to avoid mentioning why he ever left Sinn Féin in the first place. I doubt many will believe him if he claims it was over anything other than abortion, not that there won't be those who agree with him on his pro-life stance. I'm not sure if it's enough to carry him to a seat though.

The No side in the 8th Amendment referendum got 36% in Meath West so he'll be pinning his hopes on that. But most of that vote is natural FG and FF.

I also think that referendum is a handy rule of thumb in ascertaining where the Greens have a chance of seats.

Anywhere that returned a Yes vote of over 65% or over in 2018 and they should be in the shake up at least.

I fully expect FF to be the largest party. They seem to have a lot more chances of seat gains than FG.

Currently it's 47 FG and 46 FF (if you include the Ceann Comhairle O'Fearghail, who is FF), though I think that doesn't include the seat Dara Murphy vacated in Cork North Central so we'll say 48 FG 46 FF.

In terms of realistic seat gains for FG, they are thin enough on the ground.

They should re-take the seat they lost in the by-election in Dublin Mid-West.

Other realistic possibilities are:
The extra seat in Cavan-Monaghan
A second seat in Longford-Westmeath
Tipperary

Puncher's chances for them would be:
A second seat in Dublin Rathdown
A second seat in Cork South Central

Outside chances but unlikely are:
Dublin Fingal
Dublin South West

I don't see any other realistic possibilities of seat gains and if even if you're to give FG all those seats plus all the ones they already hold, that's an absolute maximum of 55.

They are defending so many seats that unless they have a very, very good day, I think they'll be well down into the 40s.

Dun Laoghaire is a guaranteed loss of one seat for them and there's a very good chance they'll lose two.

Other possible losses are:
Dublin Bay South
Dublin North West
Meath East
Louth
Wicklow
Wexford
Limerick County
Galway West
Clare

I have a feeling Donegal could be one to watch as well as regards a possible Fine Gael seat loss.

So if take all those together, a showing in the 30s for FG is by no means impossible.

AMKC · 15-01-2020 12:36pm

So already its starting to get nasty. This could be a nasty election. Micheal Martin saying Fine Gael did not do everyything thy promised they would do like in health and housing.

Ludo · 15-01-2020 1:16pm

AMKC wrote: »

So already its starting to get nasty. This could be a nasty election. Micheal Martin saying Fine Gael did not do everyything thy promised they would do like in health and housing.

Is that really nasty though? Pretty standard harmless stuff in fairness. Rather than offering good workable solutions, just say the other side didn't solve it/caused it (delete as appropriate).
Nothing nasty about that.

General Election and Government Formation Megathread (see post #1)

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