Charts ( up to T120 ) Summer to Winter 2018 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Supercell · 18-11-2018 10:43am

Unusual enough to see convergence lines on the charts like in the Bracknell T+60 one. Lots of instability, could be very damp on eastern facing coastal areas next week.

Meteorite58 · 18-11-2018 9:36pm

The cooler airmass for the week coming. Feeling cold in the stiff breeze and showers along the Eastern coasts especially from Tues. The W doing best escaping most of the showers. Met Eireann mentions possible hail showers on Weds, the passage of an upper Low aiding convection, could have some heavy cold showers. Certainly a big departure from the recent mild weather.

Meteorite58 · 20-11-2018 9:43pm

A lot of rain predicted to fall along the East overnight / tomorrow. Some white peaks in the Wicklow Mts perhaps.

Meteorite58 · 23-11-2018 9:36pm

Uncertain on how next Tues and Weds pans out . In general looks windy and very wet at times in places , very mild for a time. Possibility of some very windy weather but this won't get resolved for a couple of days yet as the models come to terms with the complex weather unfolding namely areas of deepening LP, wave depressions being steered by the jet.

Timing , strength and track will be fine tuning for a couple of days yet at the least. At this stage looking windy Tues Evening / night and Weds morning and could be quite windy during Weds . Rain heavy at times especially in the SW, S and W but this all depends on track.

sdanseo · 23-11-2018 11:11pm

Weds just coming into the range of this thread.

Windy on Wednesday, GFS, ICON seeming to go for 120km/h ish gusts (ICON 150km/h but knock 30 off that for its bias)
ARPEGE also, we need 6 more frames

A long way out still of course.

Meteorite58 · 24-11-2018 1:22pm

Still looking strong for Weds next , depends a lot on which track it takes. A way to go yet.

Meteorite58 · 24-11-2018 7:05pm

A direct hit from ICON 12Z. Still a spread on track amongst the models which are still chopping and changing, ARPEGE keeps strongest winds up along the W coast, GFS strongest off the E coast , ECM out soon will be interesting. In general all showing very strong winds.

28-11-2018 12:30am

The far NW may have another wind event Thursday night going into Friday morning.

Meteorite58 · 30-11-2018 10:00pm

Sunday looking quite windy on Atlantic coasts and breezy if not windy overland at times. SW winds bringing rain and a bit milder especially in the Southern half of the country.

Meteorite58 · 02-12-2018 7:07pm

GFS now more on board with possible very strong winds next Fri. Will see what the ECMWF brings out in the 12Z run. ICON similar .

Meteorite58 · 02-12-2018 7:48pm

Very tight gradient on the ECM 12Z for Fri

850 hPa winds

Meteorite58 · 02-12-2018 8:35pm

Will see how the track and strength of the potential very windy weather for Fri looks over the coming days .

Gaoth Laidir · 03-12-2018 12:56am

Why is this thread still running when there's a dedicated Winter FI thread running too?

Indestructable · 03-12-2018 1:18am

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Why is this thread still running when there's a dedicated Winter FI thread running too?

This is T120, not FI

Meteorite58 · 03-12-2018 1:20am

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Why is this thread still running when there's a dedicated Winter FI thread running too?

This thread is for charts / technical discussion up to T120 hrs.
FI thread is for charts / technical discussion from T120 hrs onwards.

squarecircles · 03-12-2018 8:39pm

Surprised nobody's mentioned this evenings ECM, gusts of up to 150kmh in west/northwest for friday
If this evolved as it's being shown,Gfs 12z also had a severe windstorm just to the north of Donegal bay ,would be nasty if it were to continue to drift further south

18z nudges core of the strongest winds further south.

Meteorite58 · 10-12-2018 12:39am

The Jet acting as a conveyor belt guiding LP's across the Atlantic this week . The fronts stalling and dissipating over / near Ireland as they get blocked by HP over Europe.

Meteorite58 · 10-12-2018 11:43pm

American and Canadian models showing a hefty storm for Sat , ECM and ICON not as strong , showing more of a wave with the strongest winds forming past Ireland perhaps . GFS showing a storm deepening rapidly as it passes close to Ireland.

GFS has been showing a variety of outcomes with very strong winds on Sat for a number of runs now, ECM not making much of it. UKMO showing a Low but perhaps further off the coast for Sat and not as strong. ?????

More runs.

Meteorite58 · 10-12-2018 11:46pm

Actually UKMO not too dissimilar to the GFS but probably a bit less wind speed on this run.

squarecircles · 10-12-2018 11:55pm

:eek::eek::eek:

Meteorite58 · 11-12-2018 12:19am

Yea the GFS is leading the assault. The thing is the ECM has been sticking to its look of a lesser event over the last few runs also.

GFS known to overdo it early on so loads of time for change yet.

Jet charts similar between the GFS and ECM

sdanseo · 11-12-2018 12:22am

Until I see 24hrs of runs in consensus across several models, might as well roll a dice. They've been spewing nonsense as tends to happen when a high establishes over western Europe. The models have no idea which storms will get beaten back and which will make it over to 0W and beyond.

Working in logistics all the half-arsed storms are becoming tiresome. Serious delays to all container schedules and the costs and complaints piling up.

As extremely selfish as it sounds, we east-coast weather buffs don't mind short short term disruption to get a proper extreme event (hoping that all stay safe of course) but getting all the ill effects for what have turned out a few times this Autumn to be fish storms or western coastal events is becoming boring!

pauldry · 11-12-2018 1:20am

But also remember that the weather always has the habit of creeping up and delivering when its least expected. Eerily quiet outside. If I never saw a computer model Id surmise we are getting a nationwide storm this month.

Just a hunch.

Meteorite58 · 11-12-2018 8:59am

ECM latest run still keeping to it's previous track and general wind speed . GFS this morning nothing like previous runs, now more in line with the ECM .

squarecircles · 11-12-2018 1:23pm

The phantom storm returns,im sure it will be gone again in the next run.

JCX BXC · 11-12-2018 1:52pm

Ooh that looks particularly nasty.

Let's see what it actually is.

sdanseo · 11-12-2018 9:08pm

squarecircles wrote: »

The phantom storm returns,im sure it will be gone again in the next run.

What storm? :pac:

96-289UK.GIF?11-12

squarecircles · 11-12-2018 9:37pm

im sure it will be back on the 18z.

Meteorite58 · 11-12-2018 11:43pm

Models continue to show less winds for Sat, the East coast might be a bit windy for a time but this even looks less windy again on the ECM 12Z , accumulation of rain looks like the main issue now.

Windy wet weather on and off coming up over the coming days with Sat being potentially very wet for most by the looks of it. Sunday looks cooler and showery with a convective look to it possibly leading to sporadic hail and thunder showers.

Meteorite58 · 12-12-2018 8:49pm

Latest rainfall predictions between now and Sat , big accumulations in Southern counties.

MidMan25 · 12-12-2018 8:57pm

Sick of it down here, it has been a dismal November and December so far. Feels like the worst run of wet weather since December 2015.

Meteorite58 · 12-12-2018 10:24pm

Rough enough day coming up this Sat as a low pressure travels up over the country with very heavy rain in places, especially the South of the country. Will need to see charts closer to the time for exact winds but looks windy, more so perhaps on S , E and N coasts later. The weather fronts run into cold air giving some wintry precipitation on high ground in the E and NE perhaps and giving sleet and probably wet snow over in the UK especially in Scotland. Charts at this stage just for guidance as this will get fine tuned over the next two days as is quite a complex set up.

Meteorite58 · 14-12-2018 1:10am

Another spell of potentially windy and very wet weather next Mon / Tues.

Meteorite58 · 14-12-2018 9:17pm

24 hr and total accumulated rainfall by late Tues next.

Meteorite58 · 16-12-2018 12:30am

Models continue to show very heavy rain next Monday / Tues from a long trailing cold front making very slow progress inland, Heaviest in the Western half of the country .

Total accumulation up to Tues morning from the WRF

Meteorite58 · 16-12-2018 12:36am

Quite windy also next Mon/ Tues

Meteorite58 · 16-12-2018 11:53pm

No rain warning up yet but sure to follow, ECM showing parts along Atlantic coastal counties getting 30mm approx in 12 hrs. Kerry and around Tralee looks to get around 35mm from the frontal rain from Mon evening to early Tues morning as does parts of the W. Good test of the ECM to see how it fares.

Total Accumulation

Meteorite58 · 19-12-2018 9:25pm

Getting windy on Atlantic coasts at times over the next few days, nothing too stand out atm but with a fast jet nearby and overhead worth keeping an eye on a couple of wave like features moving up over Ireland on Fri which presently look like bringing gusts up around 80 -90 km/h on coasts and perhaps up to 60 /70 km/h in places overland. Don't know if they will strengthen or not but could do so. Wet along the Atlantic coasts at times.

Meteorite58 · 22-12-2018 1:46am

Tomorrow looking like the driest of the days leading up to Christmas day .

Meteorite58 · 22-12-2018 4:55pm

Nice bit of rain showing up in the W across to the E by early tomorrow from the Euro 4

Meteorite58 · 30-12-2018 12:50pm

Hp building over Ireland and the UK, LP and cold air plunge down into Europe.

Elmer Blooker · 30-12-2018 1:08pm

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Hp building over Ireland and the UK, LP and cold air plunge down into Europe.

I'm convinced we'll be looking at that HP for quite a while, this winter is more like 91/92 than 88/89.
On this day in '91 we were under a big high and one month later nothing had changed. The high will meander a bit but it will always sink and end up where it started.
* not a forecast, a pattern has become established

irishrover99 · 30-12-2018 1:39pm

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

I'm convinced we'll be looking at that HP for quite a while, this winter is more like 91/92 than 88/89.
On this day in '91 we were under a big high and one month later nothing had changed. The high will meander a bit but it will always sink and end up where it started.
* not a forecast, a pattern has become established

That looks heavenly ðŸ˜€

derekon · 30-12-2018 1:46pm

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

I'm convinced we'll be looking at that HP for quite a while, this winter is more like 91/92 than 88/89.
On this day in '91 we were under a big high and one month later nothing had changed. The high will meander a bit but it will always sink and end up where it started.
* not a forecast, a pattern has become established

I'll take a month of dry weather thank you! Beats endless wind & rain backed up by hopecasting about snow that in all likelihood will not arrive.......I would bank the dry weather anyday!

D

Billcarson · 30-12-2018 2:08pm

If the hp hangs around perhaps due to the ssw it will move to a favourable location for a cold spell at some point in jan. Perhaps one scenario?

Meteorite58 · 31-12-2018 6:26pm

HP building over the next few days with frosty nights in parts and cooler days, mix of cloud and sunny spells. Temperatures might be colder than shown on the ARPEGE charts depending on where gets the clearer skies. Good time to check the accuracy of the Barometer. Some very high pressure coming up.

Hooter23 · 31-12-2018 7:56pm

I suppose if we get fog under this high pressure temperatures during the day could be much lower than forecast in some places...

Meteorite58 · 01-01-2019 8:24pm

Mod Note: Will close this thread so as not to cause confusion. New thread opened for Winter 2019.

Thanks

Charts ( up to T120 ) Summer to Winter 2018 ** READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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Charts ( up to T120 ) Summer to Winter 2018 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST