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Charts ( up to T120 ) Summer to Winter 2018 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Meteorite58

Mod Note

This thread is for posting / discussing /analyzing charts up to T120 ( in the more reliable time frame).

If your post does not specifically relate to the charts then it doesn't belong here off topic posts will be moved- please use the Seasonal Discussion thread for general chat.

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Meteorite58

Very tight gradient on the ECM 12Z for Fri

850 hPa winds

Meteorite58

Will see how the track and strength of the potential very windy weather for Fri looks over the coming days .

Gaoth Laidir

Why is this thread still running when there's a dedicated Winter FI thread running too?

Indestructable

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Why is this thread still running when there's a dedicated Winter FI thread running too?

This is T120, not FI

Meteorite58

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Why is this thread still running when there's a dedicated Winter FI thread running too?

This thread is for charts / technical discussion up to T120 hrs.
FI thread is for charts / technical discussion from T120 hrs onwards.

squarecircles

Surprised nobody's mentioned this evenings ECM, gusts of up to 150kmh in west/northwest for friday
If this evolved as it's being shown,Gfs 12z also had a severe windstorm just to the north of Donegal bay ,would be nasty if it were to continue to drift further south

18z nudges core of the strongest winds further south.

Meteorite58

The Jet acting as a conveyor belt guiding LP's across the Atlantic this week . The fronts stalling and dissipating over / near Ireland as they get blocked by HP over Europe.

Meteorite58

American and Canadian models showing a hefty storm for Sat , ECM and ICON not as strong , showing more of a wave with the strongest winds forming past Ireland perhaps . GFS showing a storm deepening rapidly as it passes close to Ireland.

GFS has been showing a variety of outcomes with very strong winds on Sat for a number of runs now, ECM not making much of it. UKMO showing a Low but perhaps further off the coast for Sat and not as strong. ?????

More runs.

Meteorite58

Actually UKMO not too dissimilar to the GFS but probably a bit less wind speed on this run.

squarecircles

:eek::eek::eek:

Meteorite58

Yea the GFS is leading the assault. The thing is the ECM has been sticking to its look of a lesser event over the last few runs also.

GFS known to overdo it early on so loads of time for change yet.

Jet charts similar between the GFS and ECM

sdanseo

Until I see 24hrs of runs in consensus across several models, might as well roll a dice. They've been spewing nonsense as tends to happen when a high establishes over western Europe. The models have no idea which storms will get beaten back and which will make it over to 0W and beyond.

Working in logistics all the half-arsed storms are becoming tiresome. Serious delays to all container schedules and the costs and complaints piling up.

As extremely selfish as it sounds, we east-coast weather buffs don't mind short short term disruption to get a proper extreme event (hoping that all stay safe of course) but getting all the ill effects for what have turned out a few times this Autumn to be fish storms or western coastal events is becoming boring!

pauldry

But also remember that the weather always has the habit of creeping up and delivering when its least expected. Eerily quiet outside. If I never saw a computer model Id surmise we are getting a nationwide storm this month.

Just a hunch.

Meteorite58

ECM latest run still keeping to it's previous track and general wind speed . GFS this morning nothing like previous runs, now more in line with the ECM .

squarecircles

The phantom storm returns,im sure it will be gone again in the next run.

JCX BXC

Ooh that looks particularly nasty.

Let's see what it actually is.

sdanseo

squarecircles wrote: »

The phantom storm returns,im sure it will be gone again in the next run.

What storm? :pac:

96-289UK.GIF?11-12

squarecircles

im sure it will be back on the 18z.

Meteorite58

Models continue to show less winds for Sat, the East coast might be a bit windy for a time but this even looks less windy again on the ECM 12Z , accumulation of rain looks like the main issue now.

Windy wet weather on and off coming up over the coming days with Sat being potentially very wet for most by the looks of it. Sunday looks cooler and showery with a convective look to it possibly leading to sporadic hail and thunder showers.

Meteorite58

Latest rainfall predictions between now and Sat , big accumulations in Southern counties.

MidMan25

Sick of it down here, it has been a dismal November and December so far. Feels like the worst run of wet weather since December 2015.

Meteorite58

Rough enough day coming up this Sat as a low pressure travels up over the country with very heavy rain in places, especially the South of the country. Will need to see charts closer to the time for exact winds but looks windy, more so perhaps on S , E and N coasts later. The weather fronts run into cold air giving some wintry precipitation on high ground in the E and NE perhaps and giving sleet and probably wet snow over in the UK especially in Scotland. Charts at this stage just for guidance as this will get fine tuned over the next two days as is quite a complex set up.

Meteorite58

Another spell of potentially windy and very wet weather next Mon / Tues.

Meteorite58

24 hr and total accumulated rainfall by late Tues next.

Meteorite58

Models continue to show very heavy rain next Monday / Tues from a long trailing cold front making very slow progress inland, Heaviest in the Western half of the country .

Total accumulation up to Tues morning from the WRF

Meteorite58

Quite windy also next Mon/ Tues

Meteorite58

No rain warning up yet but sure to follow, ECM showing parts along Atlantic coastal counties getting 30mm approx in 12 hrs. Kerry and around Tralee looks to get around 35mm from the frontal rain from Mon evening to early Tues morning as does parts of the W. Good test of the ECM to see how it fares.

Total Accumulation

Meteorite58

Getting windy on Atlantic coasts at times over the next few days, nothing too stand out atm but with a fast jet nearby and overhead worth keeping an eye on a couple of wave like features moving up over Ireland on Fri which presently look like bringing gusts up around 80 -90 km/h on coasts and perhaps up to 60 /70 km/h in places overland. Don't know if they will strengthen or not but could do so. Wet along the Atlantic coasts at times.

Meteorite58

Tomorrow looking like the driest of the days leading up to Christmas day .

Meteorite58

Nice bit of rain showing up in the W across to the E by early tomorrow from the Euro 4