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Charts ( up to T120 ) Summer to Winter 2018 ** READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

  • 18-06-2018 9:01pm
    #1
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,468 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Mod Note

    This thread is for posting / discussing /analyzing charts up to T120 ( in the more reliable time frame).

    If your post does not specifically relate to the charts then it doesn't belong here off topic posts will be moved- please use the Seasonal Discussion thread for general chat.

    Thanks.


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Comments

  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,468 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    A couple of cool nights coming up. Weds night just a bit cool in Northern counties.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,468 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Warm front bringing rain to the West and North midlands Northern counties tomorrow, heavy in places. Much cooler further N under the rain cloud. Airmass bringing humid conditions up over the country on Tuesday. Humidex showing feeling warm and muggy Tues night into Weds morning for most.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,468 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Getting breezy tomorrow afternoon, windy on coasts. Marine warning in operation.

    Met Eireann

    Status Yellow - Small Craft Warning
    Southwest winds will increase to force 6 on Tuesday afternoon and evening on Irish Coasts from Carnsore Point to Valentia to Slyne Head.

    Issued: Monday 18 June 2018 22:00


    tempresult_xny6.gif


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,468 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Big change in the airmass tomorrow as the wind swings around to the NW giving a fresher day and cooler temperatures. Lower humidty. Cool tomorrow night .

    tempresult_dzo1.gif


    nmm_uk1-41-25-4_tqp2.png


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  • Registered Users Posts: 17,796 ✭✭✭✭ hatrickpatrick


    Lads we have an absolute cracker of a weekend on the way :D:D:D

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    Took the temperature chart from the GFS since the last run of the ECM only shows 2AM temperatures, GFS is a more accurate representation :D Looks like Saturday - Monday will be epic, with Sunday being the peak.


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,468 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Another NW / N breeze tomorrow, freshest along the NW , N, NE and E coasts. Temperatures similar to today and mildest in the S. Low humidity and another cool night in store as cloud clears towards evening as Hp builds from the W.

    nmm_uk1-3-23-4_xcr6.png

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,468 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Clear skies and calm conditions and a cool airmass giving very cold readings early in the morning.

    nmm_uk1-32-18-4_ufw1.png


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,468 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    After a relatively cool night temperatures rising early morning giving a fine day . A bit of cloud about but should have good levels of sunshine .

    nmm_uk1-41-10-4_ghm8.png

    nmm_uk1-41-20-4_obl9.png

    arpegeuk-53-19-0_bxv2.png

    tempresult_abw0.gif


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,468 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Cloud looks to be an issue this week with areas experiencing mist and drizzle and later rain by weds according to the ECM.

    The ECM 12Z showing more rain then being forecast for Weds with the passage of an upper Low, small possibility of thunder also ( more so the S ). Tricky forecasting I would imagine this week with troughs and weak fronts and temperature there to kick off convection at times with enough diurnal heating perhaps.

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    Thurs looks generally cloudy / some thunder breaking out in the SW later in the afternoon perhaps.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 10,347 ✭✭✭✭ MJohnston


    Short range models for the rain potential until tomorrow evening:

    nmm_uk1-25-36-0_uee7.png

    iconeu_uk1-25-36-0_yxy2.png

    arpegeuk-25-36-0_mal3.png

    hirlamuk-25-36-0_wwt9.png

    Jealous of the rain that the north coast looks to be getting!


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,468 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    ECM 12Z and GFS 12Z showing Sunday before any real rain comes through the country. ECM showing not much making it over to the Eastern half on this run.

    126-574UK_lty0.GIF

    VWKF7Dw.png

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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,023 ✭✭✭ Donegal Storm


    Totals for the next 7 days still look very low in the inland south and east in particular. Might be a totally dry week ahead for some again

    us_model_en_318_4_modez_2018071012_174_949_157.png


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,468 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    GFS showing a different story which would be welcome by many I'm sure. Couldn't tell you which way it will go.

    162-777UK_ptr3.GIF


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,183 ✭✭✭ sdanseo


    GFS showing a different story which would be welcome by many I'm sure. Couldn't tell you which way it will go.

    Probably not this way, GFS always overestimates precip by a huge margin (to the dismay of those of us who are snow lovers, during winter :pac: )


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,560 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    Cooler interlude for now bringing fresher temperatures than of late but not long until we'll find ourselves in double 850hPa temperatures again by the weekend.

    tempresult_tbi9.gif

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,468 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Best chance of a drop of rain this week Thurs evening into Fri according to the ICON and ECM . Not much for some but every drop counts in this dry spell.

    ARPEGE, GFS show it mostly missing the country.

    tempresult_zzl8.gif

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,468 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    American models not showing much if any rain on Thurs night/ Fri morning. ECM a bit less to what was modelled yesterday, ICON eased off a good bit on totals, ARPEGE showing a decent bit of rain overnight into Fri. Met Eireann's Harmonie showing light rain.


    yLerapB.png


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,468 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Temperatures picking up again the weekend with Sunday and Monday looking like the warmest with the ECM showing 27C reachable.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,560 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    ECM 12z 850hPa temperatures for the coming weekend.

    Zex42e8.png

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    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,560 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    23c and 26c in Cork on Saturday and Sunday respectively on the ECM 12z.

    1NZsFQN.png

    ttrvRt2.png

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,468 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    ECM showing best temps in the S and SE in the coming days with Pressure highest in the S. Probably a big contrast between N and S over the weekend.
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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,468 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    The South on the edge of the HP over the Weekend. Hopefully cloud won't block too much sun further up the country over the weekend. Light rain / drizzle possible in Northern counties Sat night/ Sun morning. A weak dissipating front looks set to cross the country on Mon. Rainfall amounts low. Humid and muggy at times .

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,468 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Rain moving down from the NW to SE early Fri ,becoming lighter on its way. Amounts in general quite low apart from the NW/ N region.

    tempresult_eox8.gif


    iconeu_uk1-25-42-0_tpi5.png


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,468 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    A noteworthy possible spell of rain for next Weds, which at present looks substantial, just at the edge of +120 hrs so a fair degree of uncertainty yet. A chance to get a decent fall of rain perhaps. Breezy along Atlantic Coasts.

    iy7IPAp.png

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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,728 ✭✭✭ Rebelbrowser


    A noteworthy possible spell of rain for next Weds, which at present looks substantial, just at the edge of +120 hrs so a fair degree of uncertainty yet. A chance to get a decent fall of rain perhaps.

    Fingers crossed at this stage.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,468 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Fingers crossed at this stage.

    Most definitely.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,560 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    Wednesday's rain band on the hi res models.

    WRF-NMM barely has 1mm for most places.

    tempresult_pia5.gif

    Arpege shows it relatively heavier (keep in mind, this is rain averaged over 6 hours) with a little "ripple" on the front pushing up from the south Wednesday night into early Thursday.

    tempresult_clv4.gif

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,468 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    The SW soaking up a lot of it on the ICON

    tempresult_zmh9.gif


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,468 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    All depends on the track of the messy frontal system determining what rainfall totals we get Weds /Thurs. Potential there for decent amounts and ECM leading the way in that respect. The American models keeping the track further W. HARMONIE showing SW, S and W probably getting the most but not showing as much as the ECM I would think.

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    1awM5ma.png



    tempresult_tzi2.gif


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,468 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Big shift on the ECM 12Z with the heaviest rainfall staying offshore with Atlantic coastal counties getting the most rain, not much moving inland on this run.

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This discussion has been closed.
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