Ethiopian Airlines Crash/ B737MAX grounding

Hotblack Desiato · 27-09-2019 1:19pm

No it's not a red herring. It's worrying that Boeing are willing to outsource software development to guys straight out of college on $9 an hour.

cml387 · 27-09-2019 6:06pm

There is a danger of writing off software written by Indian engineers because they are Indian (I accept that that is not what the poster or the article intends).

Boeing used to design aircraft that were designed to be flown by pilots of all abilities. They understood that like all professions there can be a wide range of competences and once a defined level of competence had been demonstrated by a trainee pilot they would be considered safe to take control of an aircraft.

billie1b · 28-09-2019 9:01pm

Boeing 38M - BOE106, one of the Ryanair max fleet up doing a test flight over Seattle now

cnocbui · 29-09-2019 5:53pm

There goes any argument Boeing haven't been grossly negligent and utterly culpable for the deaths of hundreds of people. They ought to be in really deep poo. This is no longer a case where there was a prospect of them making a mistake or just being a bit incompetent. It's gone from possible lapse to deliberate,

(Reuters) - Boeing Co (BA.N) engineers working on the 737 MAX passenger plane’s flight-control system omitted safeguards included in an earlier version of the system used on a military tanker jet, The Wall Street Journal reported on Sunday, citing people familiar with the matter.

The engineers who created the Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System (MCAS) flight-control system more than a decade ago for the military refueling plane designed the system to rely on inputs from multiple sensors and with limited power to move aircraft's nose, the Journal said on.wsj.com/2mOypqT.

The newspaper cited one person familiar with the design saying this approach was taken in order to guard against the system acting erroneously or causing a pilot to lose control.

In contrast, the version of MCAS on the 737 MAX passenger plane relied on input from just one of two sensors which measure the angle at which the plane’s nose is flying, the newspaper said.

Boeing’s expected software fix for its 737 MAX planes will make its MCAS more like the one used on the tanker jet, the Journal said.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ethiopia-airplane-boeing/boeing-omitted-safeguards-on-737-max-that-were-used-on-military-jet-wsj-idUSKBN1WE0FR

The_Wanderer · 30-09-2019 3:57am

I did the Boeing Factory tour on Saturday at Paine Field and was very surprised to see Boeing still selling merchandise branded with 737 Max and their promotional video at the start of the tour also mentioned the improved 737 max.

Felt a bit insensitive to me, especially considering the fleet is still grounded.

On a side note managed to get out there via Public Transport for a total of $8.50, a big saving compared to the $90 the coach companies look for on day tours. That includes the admission cost of €25.

L1011 · 30-09-2019 8:02am

Many of the staff still think it's the "poorly trained pilots" fault and can't accept they made unairworthy planes. There'd be war internally if they removed the merch

banie01 · 30-09-2019 4:16pm

L1011 and I have posted earlier about Boeing's inheritence of McDonnell's and Douglas's failed management culture and practices.
The more detail that comes to light regarding Boeing's programme management and actual reaction to failure, the more the contagion of poor practice and cultural acceptance by management becomes apparent.

Between blaming the Pilots, then the off shored Software work ignores the fact that Boeing designed the Max to be flown by NG pilots with minimal additional training.
Off shoring software development, one could argue that they got what they paid for?
That would ignore that Boeing surely had on-shore QC teams aswell as the fact that specs and scoping for any software would have issued from Boeing!
Aswell as that I've never yet seen a development contract, where the product delivered, was not verified as being to the required Spec before being allowed into a production environment.

Boeing a reaping a whirlwind borne of poor corporate governance and taking the cheapest, least risky (In development terms) path over the last 25yrs.
There really is a reckoning coming and where Boeing not one of the US big 2, I think they would already likely really be facing chapter 11 protection issues.
The confidence the market seems to have in Boeing riding this out, is not based on any logic I can grasp.

Boeing do have a cash pile.
That is facing conflagration on multiple fronts.
Suit from the families of the Max victims.
Suit from the Airlines who have had plans and services affected by the grounding.
Storage and maintainence costs for Airframes, Furloughed worker costs.
I'd think once the true scope of Boeings corner cutting in pursuit of shareholder value becomes apparent, that suit from investors both personal and institutional would follow.
Then one needs to factor in the military issues and business Boeing has already lost in the US or is having trouble competing for.
A lot of those bids, are based on the cah pile soaking up R&D costs until a bid is won, the US military have shifted goalpost considerably on what and when they will pay for when organising bidding competitions.

The rush to order F15z and other gen 4.5 aircraft from Boeing is likely as close as the US can get to offering Boeing state aid without Lockheed or another company suing the Government.
Airbus could seriously dent Boeing IMO if they were to force the tanker decision to be revisited in a US court too.

It will make for an interesting few years for Boeing IMO.

funkey_monkey · 30-09-2019 4:25pm

Hotblack Desiato wrote: »

No it's not a red herring. It's worrying that Boeing are willing to outsource software development to guys straight out of college on $9 an hour.

My understanding was that the software behaved as intended. Software engineers do just that - software. Many of them do not come from aerospace backgrounds and take their inputs and produce the outputs. I have seen it myself that they would be less inclined to query the proposals. I would suspect that queries might not be welcome from the hired help.

Another problem here apart from the obvious lack of design oversight at System level is fact that the verification process did not pick up on this failure scenario. Questions should be asked about how a DO-178 process let this failure condition slip through testing phase. System testing should have picked up on it - doubt that software testing itself would determine this as a failure as it was compliant with its design requirements.
There was a question over retry attempts, but I'm not sure who pushed for that.

cnocbui · 02-10-2019 6:26pm

Boeing management just sinking deeper and deeper.

A senior Boeing engineer filed an internal ethics complaint this year saying that during the development of the 737 Max jet the company had rejected a safety system to minimize costs, equipment that he felt could have reduced risks that contributed to two fatal crashes.

Boeing has provided the complaint, which was reviewed by The New York Times, to the Department of Justice as part of a criminal investigation into the design of the Max, according to a person with knowledge of the inquiry who requested anonymity given the ongoing legal matter. Federal investigators have questioned at least one former Boeing employee about the allegations, said another person with knowledge of the discussions who similarly requested anonymity.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/02/business/boeing-737-max-crashes.html

ZiabR · 03-10-2019 2:25pm

padjocollins wrote: »

meant to post this yesterday
https://newrepublic.com/article/154944/boeing-737-max-investigation-indonesia-lion-air-ethiopian-airlines-managerial-revolution

That is a super read, scary and infuriating, but super.

L1011 · 11-10-2019 5:46pm

Multiple airlines are ferrying planes out of colder wetter climes to drier storage before winter hits

Fairly certain they won't be flying in passenger service this year now

Thirdfox · 13-10-2019 10:08am

Some small change at the top:
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/oct/12/boeing-removes-ceo-as-chairman-amid-737-max-crisis

So CEO is still CEO, but no longer chairman.

Though in these cases - I think it's still rarely just one person at the top that changes the culture of a company completely - plenty of people would need to be happy with the direction a company goes in before they change course. See the protests by google employees (and backtracking by Google) when Google tries to do things some people regard as against the company's "values".

Tenzor07 · 13-10-2019 2:54pm

Thirdfox wrote: »

Some small change at the top:
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/oct/12/boeing-removes-ceo-as-chairman-amid-737-max-crisis

So CEO is still CEO, but no longer chairman.

Though in these cases - I think it's still rarely just one person at the top that changes the culture of a company completely - plenty of people would need to be happy with the direction a company goes in before they change course. See the protests by google employees (and backtracking by Google) when Google tries to do things some people regard as against the company's "values".

I'm sure this will be the first of many moves at Boeing towers, they need to change the culture in this corporation...

Nijmegen · 18-10-2019 6:38pm

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ethiopia-airplane-boeing-exclusive-idUSKBN1WX25G

Hello smoking gun? Their shares are nosediving as messages between Boeing employees during the MAX certification process have come to light. I can see some people going to prison at this stage.

banie01 · 18-10-2019 6:45pm

Nijmegen wrote: »

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ethiopia-airplane-boeing-exclusive-idUSKBN1WX25G

Hello smoking gun? Their shares are nosediving as messages between Boeing employees during the MAX certification process have come to light. I can see some people going to prison at this stage.

Its been coming, and with a share price "correction" as well as the furlough and storage costs Boeing are facing into quite a bit of turmoil IMO.

Damien360 · 18-10-2019 6:48pm

Nijmegen wrote: »

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ethiopia-airplane-boeing-exclusive-idUSKBN1WX25G

Hello smoking gun? Their shares are nosediving as messages between Boeing employees during the MAX certification process have come to light. I can see some people going to prison at this stage.

Boeing plummeting would effect the US economy and there isn’t a hope in hell of that being allowed to happen. Trump will not allow it. As bad as it is, nobody is going to jail.

Raging_Ninja · 18-10-2019 8:05pm

Damien360 wrote: »

Boeing plummeting would effect the US economy and there isn’t a hope in hell of that being allowed to happen. Trump will not allow it. As bad as it is, nobody is going to jail.

Boeing absolutely could go down. But the assets, production lines etc would all still exist and another company could buy the assets and continue the business, potentially under a different name.

After all, McDonnell Douglas (which itself was formed by a merger of two other defense contractors) was also a big defense contractor until it merged with Boeing.

Quin_Dub · 22-10-2019 2:48pm

Damien360 wrote: »

Boeing plummeting would effect the US economy and there isn’t a hope in hell of that being allowed to happen. Trump will not allow it. As bad as it is, nobody is going to jail.

You are right, it won't be allowed to fail ,but this is going to cost them (and the US taxpayer) a LOT of money.

In terms of Jail - Muelenberg and the like aren't going to jail,but I wouldn't be surprised if some mid level Director/Jr VP type gets thrown to the wolves as part of the PR Recovery plan.

Nijmegen · 22-10-2019 10:04pm

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/boeings-kevin-mcallister-resigns-amid-growing-737-m-461699/

COO gone. I reckon the CEOs performance in front of congress might be an interview to keep himself in the role.

cnocbui · 23-10-2019 12:14am

VW were fined $30 Billion for fudging some CO2 measurements. If Boeing even gets $3 B in fines for killing hundreds of people, I will be very surprised.

Yes, I'm a cynic.

Bob24 · 23-10-2019 8:34am

cnocbui wrote: »

VW were fined $30 Billion for fudging some CO2 measurements. If Boeing even gets $3 B in fines for killing hundreds of people, I will be very surprised.

Yes, I'm a cynic.

Sadly, you’re probably right.

Hotblack Desiato · 23-10-2019 10:40am

cnocbui wrote: »

VW were fined $30 Billion for fudging some CO2 measurements. If Boeing even gets $3 B in fines for killing hundreds of people, I will be very surprised.

Yes, I'm a cynic.

It was NOx and it has a significant effect on human health.

Study: Volkswagen’s excess emissions will lead to 1,200 premature deaths in Europe

You are probably right about Boeing getting a slap on the wrist however - and I'd have to say that the fact it was two non-US airlines which crashed a long way away is part of that.

cnocbui · 23-10-2019 11:18am

Hotblack Desiato wrote: »

It was NOx and it has a significant effect on human health.

Study: Volkswagen’s excess emissions will lead to 1,200 premature deaths in Europe

You are probably right about Boeing getting a slap on the wrist however - and I'd have to say that the fact it was two non-US airlines which crashed a long way away is part of that.

Whoops, yes, NOX. I wasn't trying to downplay the seriousness of NOX, however, the fine was in the US, where diesel cars are far fewer in number as a proportion of the total so aerial concentrations are likely lower than in European cities. The estimate of premature deaths from NOX in the US, attributable to VW cheat emissions is 59. So Boeing should be fined about $79 B proportionately.

murphaph · 23-10-2019 4:36pm

That's a very interesting comparison with VW. I'll also be amazed if Boeing are fined proportionally.

mickdw · 23-10-2019 4:46pm

Hotblack Desiato wrote: »

It was NOx and it has a significant effect on human health.

Study: Volkswagen’s excess emissions will lead to 1,200 premature deaths in Europe

You are probably right about Boeing getting a slap on the wrist however - and I'd have to say that the fact it was two non-US airlines which crashed a long way away is part of that.

Ya it was nox but not deemed as important as co2 seeing as that is what they chose to tax us on here. The old green bullsh1t more important than direct health effects as usual.

cnocbui · 23-10-2019 8:45pm

mickdw wrote: »

Ya it was nox but not deemed as important as co2 seeing as that is what they chose to tax us on here. The old green bullsh1t more important than direct health effects as usual.

At the time that genius Gormley tipped the tax table to ensure this country got a near 100% diesel car fleet, it was known that a Japanese scientist had isolated a chemical from diesel emissions that proved on testing to be the most powerful carcinogen ever discovered. I knew this when Gormley was doing his thing, no excuse for him and the civil servants who are supposed to advise him to have not known that.

dogmatix · 24-10-2019 7:30am

cnocbui wrote: »

At the time that genius Gormley tipped the tax table to ensure this country got a near 100% diesel car fleet, it was known that a Japanese scientist had isolated a chemical from diesel emissions that proved on testing to be the most powerful carcinogen ever discovered. I knew this when Gormley was doing his thing, no excuse for him and the civil servants who are supposed to advise him to have not known that.

Near 100% diesel car fleet? Most powerful carcinogen ever discovered? Over the top claims like these need some sort of credible link to be ever taken seriously. Otherwise the above post really belongs in the green party thrashing thread and/or motor forums. Or even the after hours conspiracy theory forum.

Back to the 737 max: an interesting article of the threat the 737 max presents to the future of 737 only Southwest airlines. And Ryanair too potentially?

https://www.theverge.com/2019/10/23/20927213/boeing-737-max-southwest-planes-crash-budget-airlines-grounded-cost-maintenance

cnocbui · 24-10-2019 11:01am

dogmatix wrote: »

Near 100% diesel car fleet? Most powerful carcinogen ever discovered? Over the top claims like these need some sort of credible link to be ever taken seriously. Otherwise the above post really belongs in the green party thrashing thread and/or motor forums. Or even the after hours conspiracy theory forum.

Back to the 737 max: an interesting article of the threat the 737 max presents to the future of 737 only Southwest airlines. And Ryanair too potentially?

https://www.theverge.com/2019/10/23/20927213/boeing-737-max-southwest-planes-crash-budget-airlines-grounded-cost-maintenance

From REUTERS

LONDON (Reuters) - Japanese scientists suspect that a chemical found in the exhaust fumes of diesel engines may be the most carcinogenic ever found, and the cause of a rise in urban lung cancers, the New Scientist magazine said Thursday.

The compound, 3-nitrobenzanthrone, had the highest ever score on a standard test for cancer-causing potential of toxic chemicals. It also caused chromosomal aberrations in the blood cells of mice.

"I personally believe that the recent increase in the number of lung cancer patients in vehicle-congested areas is closely linked with respirable carcinogens such as 3-nitrobenzanthrone," said Hitomi Suzuki, a chemist at Kyoto University, who conducted the study.

When Suzuki tested the compound on a strain of salmonella he found that if caused more mutations than 1.6 dinitropyrene, the previous most powerful known mutagen.

Although both compounds are found only in minute quantites, they are so dangerous that "it is easily understandable that they would contribute considerably to the total mutagenic activity of diesel exhaust particle extracts," Suzuki added.

He called for stronger limits on the loads that diesel trucks can carry because there are more emissions from engines under heavier loads.

https://rense.com/health/deiselcancer.htm

3-Nitrobenzanthrone (3-nitro-7H-benz[de]anthracen-7-one) is a chemical compound emitted in diesel exhaust; it is a potent carcinogen.[2] It produced the highest score ever reported in the Ames test, a standard measure of the cancer-causing potential of toxic chemicals, far greater than the previous known strongest (1,8-dinitropyrene, which is also found in diesel exhaust).[3]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3-Nitrobenzanthrone

Ok, I'll concede to a bit of hyperbole regarding the cars, but it's closer to the actual figures than not.

No more - back to the 737 Max.

Hotblack Desiato · 24-10-2019 1:19pm

dogmatix wrote: »

Back to the 737 max: an interesting article of the threat the 737 max presents to the future of 737 only Southwest airlines. And Ryanair too potentially?

Slowing their expansion isn't what anybody outside of clickbait "journalism" would call a threat to their future

Rawr · 24-10-2019 8:08pm

Hotblack Desiato wrote: »

Slowing their expansion isn't what anybody outside of clickbait "journalism" would call a threat to their future

True. Makes you wonder though if operators like these guys have started to consider any kind of "Plan B".

Considering a possible nightmare situation where the Max has to be scrapped (unlikely, but you never know); could they ever consider swapping to A320s or would the plan be to run the NGs longer than they normally would until Boeing come up with some kind of 737 successor?

Ethiopian Airlines Crash/ B737MAX grounding

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