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Marriage referendum 11/2 no vote

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    #32
    skooterblue2
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,816 ✭✭✭skooterblue2


    Aubrie Loud Barbershop wrote: »
    Other 'value' markets:
    Meath West 'to have the highest No vote' x34

    I would have guessed that Donegal would have the lowest Yes return.


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    #33
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    yes, DNG (NE) is the favourite for the highest 'No vote' at x4.33, but MW is the 'value bet' for the lowest No vote returns, as it offers x34.

    Dublin (Central) also offers value at a whopping x51 (50/1) , for the highest Yes votes, but Dublin S/SE may clinch it at x3.


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    #34
    Hulk Hands
    Registered Users Posts: 6,013 ✭✭✭Hulk Hands


    Aubrie Loud Barbershop wrote: »
    Or with a bunch of 600 notes on the way out of bookies.
    The 'No vote' is 'somewhat unlikely' to win, but certainly has a 'strong possibility' all the same.
    Only a time traveller could call with absolute certainty the actual result on this.

    The only reason for calling it 'value' is that it's offered at a 1 in 5 chance.
    whereas some folks (inc myself) think it's more like a 1 in 3 chance, that's all.
    Odds may balance out closer to event time so 'lay offsetting' is another strategy.

    This market isn't available as an accumulator currently, and isn't classed as an e/w event.

    Other 'value' markets:
    Meath West 'to have the highest No vote' x34
    Yes votes to be less than 60% x1.72

    It's 5/1. 5/1 is a '1 in 6' chance, not a 1 in 5 chance.

    Lay offsetting? With no betfair market whatsoever. Right. For that strategy to work, you'd have to back it now at 5s, and hope it shortens all the way down to about 5/2, where in that case you could hedge out on yes at 1/4. It'd basically have to halve in price. Even in the incredibly unlikely event that did happen, with your 170 max on 5/1, you'd hedge out 820 at 1/4 for a massive profit of 32 quid. A lot of risk there for 32 quid. I won't say my true thoughts on it for fear of a ban, but suffice to say that a back to lay strategy in this case isnt a smart move whatsoever


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    #35
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    It's common knowledge that Betfair(exchange) isn't a 'pre-requisite' or the only method of applying a 'lay-type approach', but maybe you know this already.

    1 unit at x6 and
    2 units at x1.5^ is break even (risk elimination) with Y majority result, or 200% profit with the N result.

    ^ I've thrown in the x1.5 figure as a possibility, yes it's only 1.12 today, but very recently 3 main polls all recently commented on the rise of the no/undecided and some slippage of the yes share. One poll specified only 53% for Y. Not of course that polls at all important, it will boil down to the final few days campaigning towards the undecided. Many of the undecided will make impulse based, instinctual final decisions. There is also some separate historical data on referendum land-sliding. Before the final close of event, may also likely to be some price volatility as bet frequency increases. Even picking a (realistic x1.2) in the coming days for Y to win would only cause an acceptable small loss.

    Saying all that, the <60% Y option is a very attractive bet option at around x1.72.


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    #36
    skooterblue2
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,816 ✭✭✭skooterblue2


    http://theliberal.ie/gay-marriage-tomorrows-sunday-independent-reveals-yes-vote-plunges-to-53/

    Might not be so clear cut now


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    #37
    Hulk Hands
    Registered Users Posts: 6,013 ✭✭✭Hulk Hands


    Aubrie Loud Barbershop wrote: »
    It's common knowledge that Betfair(exchange) isn't a 'pre-requisite' or the only method of applying a 'lay-type approach', but maybe you know this already.

    Obviously I know that already, haven't I just explained a scenario exactly explaining that in the post directly above yours!

    Getting 1.5 on yes would need the No odds to drop from 6.0 to about 2.62. Hoping/expecting that to happen is incredibly optimistic at best and borderline insanity at worst. It's a horrible strategy.

    Those polls are well expected as a yes biased media attempts to get people out to vote. Even if the 53% yes was accurate, 5 days before the vote, that would still make the 1/8 yes great value. I've layed a bit of 7/1 No to a couple of poor unfortunates. Hopefully get a bit more action in coming days


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    #38
    desertcircus
    Registered Users Posts: 2,648 ✭✭✭desertcircus


    skooterblue2 wrote: »
    http://theliberal.ie/gay-marriage-tomorrows-sunday-independent-reveals-yes-vote-plunges-to-53/

    Might not be so clear cut now

    53% Yes, 24% No, 23% Don't Know. There are campaigns that would kill for that kind of support a week out from polling; the No side need to win every single voter on the fence and convert maybe sixty thousand Yes votes as well just to draw even.


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    #39
    Carlos Orange
    Registered Users Posts: 2,499 ✭✭✭Carlos Orange


    I wonder how polls handle turnout. There is always going to be a difference between how people would vote if they voted and how the people who vote actually vote.


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    #40
    OI OI
    Registered Users Posts: 8 ✭OI OI


    Couldnt agree more with Hulk Hands, 9/2 on a No vote is woeful bad value, the press always like to make it sound like a close call, it would take unbelievable switch in opinion and lying to the pollsters for the No side to win. People keep mentioning the UK polls, but its silly to compare the two, while the conservatives got an unexpected majority, if you look at it the real % swing was only couple of points. The same sex opinion polls are roughly showing about 67 - 33, now silent no or not, that is an unassailable lead in a week. The likes of paddy power know that the majoirty of punters will back the No as most are mugs who think 9/2 sounds like good value in a 2 horse race and dont have the dough to punt the odds on. They are also carving people up on the over round, 1/8 and 9/2! I'd lay the No all day long myself, so if anyone wants to back the No with me at 7/1 they can have it.


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    #41
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    Interestingly Powers just cut the No from x6 to x4, with Yes now available at x1.2 (as predicted above, yesterday).
    Boyles still have the x6 available so availing of both x6 & x1.2 leaves smaller risk margin.
    Will x1.4 N available later in the week? Perhaps...

    The sub-60% Y is looking option better all the time and still available at x1.73, even though 80% of punt/ers are on it.

    Perhaps worth reiterating this discussion is within the gambling forum, and whilst we all know many people have very strong personal views (as demonstrated on numerous other separate topics/forums). The focus here is purely on prediction, foresight, value of ROI (return of investment), discussion of unforeseen random variables on results. And of course, primarily: beating the bookies.

    Other variables:
    Poor weather on the day could reduce the No vote, as they are more apathetic overall to vote.
    Believe the Polls quoted error of margin is much higher than their stated of 2.5%, maybe 7%.

    Q. Does the '20%+/- currently undecided' (from the polls) include the estimated 40% whom won't even 'statistically' be part of the turnout?


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    #42
    ianburke
    Registered Users Posts: 691 ✭✭✭ianburke


    pity this wasnt on betfair. it will end up 1/4 5/2 by thursday id imagine would have been a decent chance to make a profit eventhough i cant see the no side winning. tbh id be a no voter but if its raining i wont even bother turning up. and im sure there are many more no voters like myself


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    #43
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    Agree, and many folks would laugh at the weather suggestion, but it could be very real apathetic factor.
    The No voters have less to loose than the Yes voters have to gain, many of whom might have vested direct personal interest.

    Another factor to consider would be that a too successful Yes campaign could backfire. Common folk are an awkward bunch, who resent being told strongly what to do or think. Id compare it to the media coverage of Cricket in the UK. Very few people actually play cricket, they honestly don't mind it, and essentially have little opinion, nor interest on it. But as it receives constant almost daily coverage right across the national media, maybe it has bought itself a divisive 'Marmite factor', it otherwise would not have. Nobody really dislikes badminton, it's just badminton after all, ask them their views on cricket though...

    Friday 22nd: 16oC, sunny, a couple of showers, rain in the evening.


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    #44
    efb
    Closed Accounts Posts: 35,514 ✭✭✭✭efb


    Went with Dub Central 50/1 for highest yes and Kerry South 8/1 for highest no


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    #45
    The_Kew_Tour
    Registered Users Posts: 34,044 ✭✭✭✭The_Kew_Tour


    I would not back the No Vote if you gave me 50\1.

    The Yes will win and win with bit to spare. The quiet vote of the Eastern European and African vote towards No might edge it bit more towards the No vote but I be surprised if Yes got anything less then 65% of the vote.


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    #46
    Hulk Hands
    Registered Users Posts: 6,013 ✭✭✭Hulk Hands


    OI OI wrote: »
    Couldnt agree more with Hulk Hands, 9/2 on a No vote is woeful bad value, the press always like to make it sound like a close call, it would take unbelievable switch in opinion and lying to the pollsters for the No side to win. People keep mentioning the UK polls, but its silly to compare the two, while the conservatives got an unexpected majority, if you look at it the real % swing was only couple of points. The same sex opinion polls are roughly showing about 67 - 33, now silent no or not, that is an unassailable lead in a week. The likes of paddy power know that the majoirty of punters will back the No as most are mugs who think 9/2 sounds like good value in a 2 horse race and dont have the dough to punt the odds on. They are also carving people up on the over round, 1/8 and 9/2! I'd lay the No all day long myself, so if anyone wants to back the No with me at 7/1 they can have it.

    I was starting to lose faith in humanity a bit, so good to see this. Im fairly sure the NO is a big loser in all books as mugs have their 20 quids. I got 1300 on Yes there at 1/4 and 2/9 across a few shops there though so happy enough, on top of what ive laid at 7/1. Literally free money


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    #47
    ianburke
    Registered Users Posts: 691 ✭✭✭ianburke


    where did you lay 7/1? cant find markets anywhere


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    #48
    Collie D
    Registered Users Posts: 11,299 ✭✭✭✭Collie D


    The_Kew_Tour wrote: »
    I would not back the No Vote if you gave me 50\1.

    The Yes will win and win with bit to spare. The quiet vote of the Eastern European and African vote towards No might edge it bit more towards the No vote but I be surprised if Yes got anything less then 65% of the vote.

    I'm pretty sure only Irish citizens get to vote in referenda. But I agree with your figures. Based on yesterday's poll the Yes vote is at just under 70% when don't knows are excluded


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    #49
    Hulk Hands
    Registered Users Posts: 6,013 ✭✭✭Hulk Hands


    ianburke wrote: »
    where did you lay 7/1? cant find markets anywhere

    Sorry, to a couple of people I know in daily life rather than online


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    #50
    ianburke
    Registered Users Posts: 691 ✭✭✭ianburke


    Hulk Hands wrote: »
    Sorry, to a couple of people I know in daily life rather than online

    cool. i would have gone on and done the same had there been a market on betfair. 3/1 is a terrible back price now for those backing it


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    #51
    robbiezero
    Registered Users Posts: 4,320 ✭✭✭robbiezero


    Hulk Hands wrote: »
    I was starting to lose faith in humanity a bit, so good to see this. Im fairly sure the NO is a big loser in all books as mugs have their 20 quids. I got 1300 on Yes there at 1/4 and 2/9 across a few shops there though so happy enough, on top of what ive laid at 7/1. Literally free money

    Where is 1/4 available?


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    #52
    Hulk Hands
    Registered Users Posts: 6,013 ✭✭✭Hulk Hands


    Was with Boyles yesterday evening. Oddscheker isn't updating Boyles prices for some reason. Currently 1/6, 7/2


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    #53
    efb
    Closed Accounts Posts: 35,514 ✭✭✭✭efb


    http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/irish-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=2041388

    Interesting constituency betting


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    #54
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    That constituency betting looks wild, x3.25 Y and x17 N is some places.
    The poll sampling was fairly small, so they must be based on age, social-economics or urbanisation.
    Without knowing the area specifics, these all offhand look like possible value, but would need investigation...

    (Semi-urban/commuter areas)
    CORK NORTH-WEST x3.25 if Y
    GALWAY EAST x3 Y

    (Semi-rural/rural)
    GALWAY WEST x6.5 if N
    WICKLOW X9 N
    CLARE x4 N
    LAOIS-OFFALY x2.1 N

    Galway is going to swing both ways, so to speak...
    Betfair(Sportsbook) appears to have opened too.


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    #55
    efb
    Closed Accounts Posts: 35,514 ✭✭✭✭efb


    Aubrie Loud Barbershop wrote: »
    That constituency betting looks wild, x3.25 Y and x17 N is some places.
    The poll sampling was fairly small, so they must be based on age, social-economics or urbanisation.
    Without knowing the area specifics, these all offhand look like possible value, but would need investigation...

    (Semi-urban/commuter areas)
    CORK NORTH-WEST x3.25 if Y
    GALWAY EAST x3 Y

    (Semi-rural/rural)
    GALWAY WEST x6.5 if N
    WICKLOW X9 N
    CLARE x4 N
    LAOIS-OFFALY x2.1 N

    Galway is going to swing both ways, so to speak...
    Betfair(Sportsbook) appears to have opened too.

    Galway west has the city in it.


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    #56
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    Ah, what about CLARE x4 N, value?
    Surely there's only Ennis, older folks than average and overall more rural outlook.
    Have only been there once, long time ago...


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    #57
    efb
    Closed Accounts Posts: 35,514 ✭✭✭✭efb


    Aubrie Loud Barbershop wrote: »
    Ah, what about CLARE x4 N, value?
    Surely there's only Ennis, older folks than average and overall more rural outlook.
    Have only been there once, long time ago...

    having canvassed Offaly 50/50 split, so the no value isn't dreadful


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    #58
    JONJO THE MISER
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 12,333 ✭✭✭✭JONJO THE MISER


    Ok here is my bet for the referendum.
    Kerry south to vote yes at 5/4 fantastic value.
    Dont know what the traders are thinking here it should be at least 1/3 on.
    Maybe the Dublin based trader just thinks kerry south is backward country, but it is very liberal around Killarney, kenmare and Dingle the 3 biggest towns if anything it would be kerry north-west limerick that have a better chance to vote no than kerry south.
    Ive been doing political bets for years and once you do your research you can often get fantastic value, one of the best markets around for betting.


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    #59
    Carlos Orange
    Registered Users Posts: 2,499 ✭✭✭Carlos Orange


    JONJO THE MISER wrote: »
    Dont know what the traders are thinking here it should be at least 1/3 on.
    Maybe the Dublin based trader just thinks kerry south is backward country

    They might be factoring in that 1 of 2 TDs that have said they are voting no is from Kerry South. Probably over factoring since he only got 15% of first prefs.


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    #60
    JONJO THE MISER
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 12,333 ✭✭✭✭JONJO THE MISER


    Well i know the place, have friends and cousins down there and from hearing from people who canvased its about 65% to 35% around killarney and kenmare.


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    #61
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    Agree value to be made in some of these areas, think I can remember getting x17 years ago, for one of the Dub-South areas (can't remember the specifics) for Y on the EU referendum. Will have to search the records...

    Exchange has just opened, little matched/trading on it so far, couple of pennies so far at x9.2...
    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.118889359


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