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Marriage referendum 11/2 no vote

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  • Registered Users Posts: 855 ✭✭✭Limestone1


    Ok here is my bet for the referendum.
    Kerry south to vote yes at 5/4 fantastic value.
    Dont know what the traders are thinking here it should be at least 1/3 on.
    Maybe the Dublin based trader just thinks kerry south is backward country, but it is very liberal around Killarney, kenmare and Dingle the 3 biggest towns if anything it would be kerry north-west limerick that have a better chance to vote no than kerry south.
    Ive been doing political bets for years and once you do your research you can often get fantastic value, one of the best markets around for betting.

    11/10 now ....they are listening to you


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    Clare cut back also from x4 to x3.5 for the No.

    Slightly more youthful population, though 88% of the populace declaring themselves as followers of the c'church, (slightly above the national average). Largest town Ennis only 27k residents (2011), fairly rural, slightly remote compared to the other big smoke(s).

    BFExchange slightly hotting up, matched so far: 2,382


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    [ in response to duckysauce's {now deleted} random query ]

    e.g. 100 on Clare (rural church going Ireland) to vote No is 350, value, simples, comprende?

    The recently opened BetfairExchange market is hotting up, Matched so far: GBP 3,575...


  • Registered Users Posts: 691 ✭✭✭ianburke


    e.g. 100 on Clare (rural church going Ireland) to vote No is 350, value, simples, comprende?

    The recently opened BetfairExchange market is hotting up, Matched so far: GBP 3,575...

    what bets did you decide on and place in the end accum?


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 12,333 ✭✭✭✭JONJO THE MISER


    I agree was looking at Clare yesterday and could not understand the big price on a no, its mostly a rural county.


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  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 12,333 ✭✭✭✭JONJO THE MISER


    Now evs yes vote Kerry South, have a nice touch on at 5/4, had to get a few people to place the bets for me.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    ianburke wrote: »
    what bets did you decide on and place in the end accum?

    Mainly watching with interest as unable to accum this market with other events. Was hoping for x1.5Y combo with the x6N for 'entirely risk free venture'. It did reach x1.2Y which was still low risk offsetting.

    So, just went Clare and a couple of small singles as they stood out:

    1. Clare No @ x4 (now 3.5)
    2. Dublin South-Central @ 21.00 (Highest Yes %)
    3. Dublin Central @ 26.00 = (Highest Yes %)

    If certain bookies offered this event would have added the x6N on to few safe 'fourfolds from 5+' accum, as per eurokaroke etc. Fairly uncharted territory too, and don't entirely trust erasable pencil markings on ballot papers.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,996 ✭✭✭✭retalivity


    Threw some on my own constituency Donegal SW to vote yes at 7/4 earlier, never underestimate the power of Daniel O'Donnell!

    The markets seems to be gone now from PP?


  • Registered Users Posts: 691 ✭✭✭ianburke


    1/25 in running now looks like hulk was right. wont bother even voting "no" now wont make a difference


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    Expecting 60% circa total turnout before end of play, so the highest ever for a referendum.
    Looks like being a highly emotive one. A pencil marking battle en masse
    - between the liberal yoof and the golden oldies...

    Can't imagine much interest in the other one for Presidential age of 21,
    read somewhere of possibility to pulling a golden bye-bye/pension in before their late 20's.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,499 ✭✭✭Carlos Orange


    60% would be very high by recent referendums but the highest ever was the EEC referendum at 71%.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,454 ✭✭✭Icepick


    gravehold wrote: »
    This seems like very good odds I put 20 euro down
    tumblr_lrv0128gPJ1qiommbo1_500.jpg


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 12,333 ✭✭✭✭JONJO THE MISER


    Backed over 59.5 percent yes yesterday at 5/6 not as much as my other bet but enough to have a few good nights out.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,408 ✭✭✭ft9


    PP now go 1/200 on yes.
    Hulk was fairly spot on


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 12,333 ✭✭✭✭JONJO THE MISER


    :D Kerry south going yes so far.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,013 ✭✭✭Hulk Hands


    ft9 wrote: »
    PP now go 1/200 on yes.
    Hulk was fairly spot on

    I usually don't like people gloating when the longshot they said wouldn't win doesn't. But this isn't like in the racing forum where the horses mentioned might be bad value but still have a realistic chance. There was absolutely minuscule chance of No winning here and it was funny seeing people acting like experts, showing no gambling tact whatsoever or understanding of polls etc. Hilarious thread all in all


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,454 ✭✭✭Icepick


    Hulk Hands wrote: »
    I usually don't like people gloating when the longshot they said wouldn't win doesn't. But this isn't like in the racing forum where the horses mentioned might be bad value but still have a realistic chance. There was absolutely minuscule chance of No winning here and it was funny seeing people acting like experts, showing no gambling tact whatsoever or understanding of polls etc. Hilarious thread all in all
    if the odds were for yes only winning 50-55% of the vote, they would still be terrible odds but at least we could have a discussion


  • Registered Users Posts: 691 ✭✭✭ianburke


    nice few bob made here. happy out


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 16,096 ✭✭✭✭the groutch


    gonna be very few NO vote constituencies, bookies will be taking a hammering.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 12,333 ✭✭✭✭JONJO THE MISER


    As i have said traders dont have a bloody clue when it comes to political betting, ive made a killing in the last 10 years on these markets, only lost 2 in that time.
    Ladbrokes used to be the best as there traders were so bad but they dont do as many markets anymore.
    Anyway thats my summer trip to the states paid for, thanks to the bookies and they wont be getting it back from me.


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  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 12,333 ✭✭✭✭JONJO THE MISER


    Its official Kerry South votes yes.
    Hope some of ye backed it at 5/4.
    Now for a whiskey:cool:


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,454 ✭✭✭Icepick


    Ive been doing political bets for years and once you do your research you can often get fantastic value, one of the best markets around for betting.
    indeed
    the Scottish independence referendum was another great earner


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 35,514 ✭✭✭✭efb


    Go on the faithful!

    Well done on KS John Jo

    Hope PP cleaned up on the No's! :D


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 35,514 ✭✭✭✭efb


    retalivity wrote: »
    Threw some on my own constituency Donegal SW to vote yes at 7/4 earlier, never underestimate the power of Daniel O'Donnell!

    The markets seems to be gone now from PP?

    Hope you enjoy your winnings


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