Marriage referendum 11/2 no vote

gravehold

This seems like very good odds I put 20 euro down as there is a large silent no vote so it's not in the bag, is there a chance of straight people betting then voting note to help win the bet as gay marraige doesn't effect them.

I know a few that put a bet on and voting no now.

4068ac1elhodqr

Interesting proposal and after some consideration there may well be some logic behind the large, silenced silent, conservative, over-40's and maybe slightly rural and fairly active Catholic (4 million) traditional voice.

The odds on offer are a fairly decent @x6, though not available as an 'add-on accumulator' as the only bookies with it (pp's) only offer it as single small-stakes market, so nothing to get too excited about.

Stats showing only 32% of participating punters choosing the no option, then again powers had a 'slightly pro-yes' outdoor ad campaign for it. Another note is the turnout, expecting a decent 50% of population. Though consider that every young liberal hipster across the land and their buddies would likely making their mark. Perhaps if the church(s) run a minibus shuttle service and free cups of tea/ham sandwiches they can clinch it.

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/irish-politics/gay-marriage-referendum-result

gravehold

Yeah pitty about the accumulater, I know a few people putting down bets at the odds and plan to vote no now where they probably wouldn't have bothered before, so even have those odds will also help on the day for no to win

Gregk961

Probably going to sound like a complete turd here but to place a bet and then cast your vote on an important referendum to help improve the chances of your bet is shameful to be honest.

I really wouldn't be pushed on either side of the vote but what you're doing is pretty appaling, to me at least.

JONJO THE MISER

Gregk961 wrote: »

Probably going to sound like a complete turd here but to place a bet and then cast your vote on an important referendum to help improve the chances of your bet is shameful to be honest.

I really wouldn't be pushed on either side of the vote but what you're doing is pretty appaling, to me at least.

I see no problem with it, everything is fair game in gambling if you can profit from it.

Gregk961

JONJO THE MISER wrote: »

I see no problem with it, everything is fair game in gambling if you can profit from it.

Like I said its my personal opinion. If nothing else its throwing away a vote.

I would argue your point about anything being fair. I know plenty of punters who would stick there hand into a betting shop till and call it profit, however there are plenty of ways to be a succesful gambler without cheating.

4068ac1elhodqr

Realistically (in context) a few fellows (guessing maybe a dozen) with this approach won't have an affect on the outcome, nor should they expect any significant influence on the outcome. Any punters doing so with that intention would also be unlikely to vote in any case, otherwise they would have stronger definite views on it.

I'd be tempted to add the No option on an accumulator (if available) regardless of whether or not I'd even bother to vote, simply as it offers good value. Also have selections on Eurovision, BigBrother etc but a single phone vote won't be used or have any real affect on outcomes unless had 100k twitteraties. And won't be upset if Ruska and one of the media hungry narcissists win the event.

ianburke

no harm in folks trying to profit from a no. they are entitled to vote any way they want.

doubt they'll raise enough to make a difference but good luck to anyone that tries. i wont be betting on this type of mickey mouse market but the op makes a valid point about the silent ones. ive sat on the fence with a view to not upsetting any of my friends but ill be voting no on the day.

4068ac1elhodqr

Can't really compare a vote to cheating/robbing bookie tills, as is no different to chanting support for a football team from the stands.

- A closer comparison to cheating could be picking up x27ew for Finland (EV) via Oddschecker when everyone else dropped it to x17. But then a (paid) Traders miscalculation is just a strategic investor's benefit. Or picking cons to win (ukelection) at x13 which seemed 'far far too generous an investment offering' at the time.

Worth mentioning too, although it's classed as a 'novelty market', there is very little that's mickymouse about a 550% Return on Investment .

It's also an AvB class event, so less risk involved than e.g. ManU vs Chelsea (which could draw). BigBrother: now that's fairly micky-mouse, due to far too many 'random-event occurrences' (mostly instigated by the producers themselves throughout the entire duration). Value to be had all the same...

With about 8 days to go likely the odds may well drop further (common trend), today's stats are 35% punting the No (increase), and odds down to x5.5 (was x6 yesterday). High horses folks aside, people can vote whatever way they wish and for whatever reason they choose and this is a gambling (high-risk-investment) forum after all.

skooterblue2

Hi I know nothing about gambling
what Kind of odds would I get if (no to marriage equality) and (no to presidential refendum) and (Bobby Alyward Fianna Fail to get in in Carlow Kilkenny)?

4068ac1elhodqr

As described above x5.5 (9/2) with ppowers for the no vote, so £100 staked = £550 in pocket.
Though Ladbrookes have also just opened a market for this event at x6 (5/1).

For the other one you'd need to search for it, usually under 'political' or 'novelty' sections. Likely only Irish bookmakers would consider offering prices on that one pre-elections, only 'next leaders' of the main parties and that type of thing currently offered.

But remember... only bet what you can afford to lose, and give away any excess that you don't really need

Hulk Hands

This is probably the worst value bet in the history of betting. The market is only up for publicity reasons. There's a reason every bookie isnt taking bets on this. It's a done deal. There needs to be a 55-45 split in the polls for there even to be a slight chance of an upset. What are the polls right now, 65-35? Look at the Scottish referendum when the No side only had a 2% poll lead weeks beforehand yet was still a 1/4, 1/5 shot. I'm not one to say something has no chance, everything has its price but the real price on this is closer to 200/1

Hulk Hands

MOD

<snip>

NO.

duckysauce

Hulk Hands wrote: »

This is probably the worst value bet in the history of betting. The market is only up for publicity reasons. There's a reason every bookie isnt taking bets on this. It's a done deal. There needs to be a 55-45 split in the polls for there even to be a slight chance of an upset. What are the polls right now, 65-35? Look at the Scottish referendum when the No side only had a 2% poll lead weeks beforehand yet was still a 1/4, 1/5 shot. I'm not one to say something has no chance, everything has its price but the real price on this is closer to 200/1

will you lay it on betfair for that ?

Hulk Hands

duckysauce wrote: »

will you lay it on betfair for that ?

I offered up a lay price in the above post but apparantly its not allowed. Anyway, why on earth would I lay 200s on betfair when I can back 1/8 and 1/10 Yes in irish shops? Not that i'd be able to get on something to make it worth my while anyway

4068ac1elhodqr

200/1 sure would be a nice price, and would likely see an un-orderly queue on the street corners of turf accountants nationwide.

Boyles just opened up the book for it at x6, so three books now offering the market, at realistic prices.
Wouldn't trust the polls, as proven recently in the uk's elections - they all got it very wrong.

Remember though to make any 'x marks' in biro, don't trust those (erasable) pencil marks...

Hulk Hands

Aubrie Loud Barbershop wrote: »

200/1 sure would be a nice price, and would likely see an un-orderly queue on the street corners of turf accountants nationwide.

Boyles just opened up the book for it at x6, so three books now offering the market, at realistic prices.
Wouldn't trust the polls, as proven recently in the uk's elections - they all got it very wrong.

Remember though to make any 'x marks' in biro, don't trust those (erasable) pencil marks...

How were they so wrong in the UK elections? Predicted Tories comfortably most seats. Didnt predict an overall majority, but the polls were still only out by less than a couple of % to account for that. The initial exit poll taken on election night was absolutely spot on. The polls have to travel seismically to even indicate a chance. I'll concede a no vote its actually possible. That doesnt stop 5/1 being one of the worst prices in living history. Only plus point for anyone insane enough to back it is the limits are tiny, so you can only lose a miniscule amount.

duckysauce

Hulk Hands wrote: »

I offered up a lay price in the above post but apparantly its not allowed. Anyway, why on earth would I lay 200s on betfair when I can back 1/8 and 1/10 Yes in irish shops? Not that i'd be able to get on something to make it worth my while anyway

why spout about 200's then if it's not achievable ??

Hulk Hands

duckysauce wrote: »

why spout about 200's then if it's not achievable ??

All I said was that the true price was closer to 200/1. As in that what the 100% price should be. Surely thats the aim of what we're doing here in gambling forum, trying to find value? How can we find value without talking about what the true price should be?

4068ac1elhodqr

True (market) price is x6 not x200, otherwise that's what several books would now be offering those particular numericals instead.
x200 is simply nonsense, even after (HH) themselves said the polls show 65% vs 35%, sure that's simply poor use of an abacus/pocket calculator.

Must say am less confident in the No vote winning (51% or more share), than I was calling in the recent UK election to the Con(Maj) at x13 circa (which was influenced by the main polls in the run-up: which ALL predicted a coalition, as the likely probability. This was offered with tiny odds <1mth avg. of x1.15).

...Less confident simply because the No voters know they will be badgered into a repeat vote again if they do succeed, bit like that EU referendum one, thus their motivation will be lower to even partake. x6 still is value all the same, x4 or x5 is about right, but do have concerns regarding No's motivation to make the effort, and mightn't touch this particular market unless it can be wild-card accumulated.

Often though, the simple application of gut logic theories, whether plain simple singular or 'contextually laterally complex' can super-seed manufactured stats, charts, powerpoint presentations and sampled focus-group polling

chops27

Good odds, I agree there are alot of no voters in the closet......forgive the pun

CobraClan

I'll be voting yes, and you know why? Because I belive in love! And if you don't like it you can get the f..k out!

4068ac1elhodqr

or Gin bottle!

...only joking CC, sure feel free to vote what ever way you want for whatever reason. Although eternal-light-spirit-infinite-conciousness in a humanoid-body-physical-manifestation doesn't require legal verification of true love, so don't worry toooo much.

...That's what I told mi' Julie anyway when she saw presented a pre-nuptial agreement.

Hulk Hands

Aubrie Loud Barbershop wrote: »

True (market) price is x6 not x200, otherwise that's what several books would now be offering those particular numericals instead.
x200 is simply nonsense, even after (HH) themselves said the polls show 65% vs 35%, sure that's simply poor use of an abacus/pocket calculator.

What on earth are you on about? Firstly odds are displayed in fractions (6/1), decimals (7.0) or even the American way (+600). Why do you keep saying x6? You clearly have no idea what 'true price' means. This is the real 100% market price after margin is taken out. If the 'true price' is 'x6' in your opinion, then why on earth would you be backing 5/1 and saying its value?

Aubrie Loud Barbershop wrote: »

Must say am less confident in the No vote winning (51% or more share), than I was calling in the recent UK election to the Con(Maj) at x13 circa (which was influenced by the main polls in the run-up: which ALL predicted a coalition, as the likely probability. This was offered with tiny odds <1mth avg. of x1.15). )

Will you please stop on about poxing some UK election bet in a market that you'd struggle to get 20 quid on. We get it, you won a bet. Well done.

Aubrie Loud Barbershop wrote: »

Often though, the simple application of gut logic theories, whether plain simple singular or 'contextually laterally complex' can super-seed manufactured stats, charts, powerpoint presentations and sampled focus-group polling

This is just gibberish. 'Gut logic theories'. I feel stupider for having read it

4068ac1elhodqr

Yes the (decimal) price (today) is x6 for the No vote. Fractions are perhaps for the older generation of punters at the sides of horse race tracks, with tweed caps, walking sticks etc. of little use for calculating returns on multiple accumulations.

x201 or 200/1 (or thereabouts as a ROI - which is what were talking about here after all, not bookmakers margins) is again, clearly pure utter nonsense, when the punting share is at 40% for the No vote.

Nope, not just 20quid, and not just a single, but also as a multiplier on the end of other multiple accumulators, thank you.

If we lived by the world of statistical probabilities, the 1st Fav would always win every race/event and would be little point in punting any other.

Hulk Hands

Complete and utter gibberish again. 200/1 as an ROI? 40% punting share? I dont even think you know yourself what point you're trying to make.

I know very well that favs dont always win, a brief glance over my posting history would tell you I generally oppose favs. That doesnt mean that every outsider is good value. This one is case in point

Anyway, its a terrible terrible value 5/1 shot. If anyone wants to go along with it, feel free

4068ac1elhodqr

Well what you implied earlier was that there was only 1 in 200 chance of the No vote winning. When actually 4 out of every 10 punters/bets were actively backing the No bet.

Thus, (theoretically), I'd happily hand you over 1k if you had 200k in crispy new notes available to hand back.

So in summary, we can 'agree to disagree' that 5/1 (or x6) is realistic/fair odds.

Haven't placed any bets yet as would always prefer accumulate, and might hold back - as it may even move higher for a short bursts (based on media influences: stats, press releases, campaign activity...) closer to the event time.

StealthRolex

Is anyone offering an accumulator bet on this in case we vote the wrong way the first time and have to keep voting until we vote the right way?

Or have I misunderstood Irish democracy and we are now allowed to vote the way the government doesn't want us to vote ...

Shanotheslayer

Can't wait to see peoples betslips with 100 odd quid on the No Vote. Seeing as it's ''Good Value''

ianburke

9/2 with pp max i can get on is 1.70 . i am limited to 1% with pp though so unrestricted accounts can bet 170 which is a lot more than i thought they would lay in a novelty market like this.

i reckon it will end up 1/5, 3/1 by midweek. yes could be worth a punt then

4068ac1elhodqr

Or with a bunch of 600 notes on the way out of bookies.
The 'No vote' is 'somewhat unlikely' to win, but certainly has a 'strong possibility' all the same.
Only a time traveller could call with absolute certainty the actual result on this.

The only reason for calling it 'value' is that it's offered at a 1 in 5 chance.
whereas some folks (inc myself) think it's more like a 1 in 3 chance, that's all.
Odds may balance out closer to event time so 'lay offsetting' is another strategy.

This market isn't available as an accumulator currently, and isn't classed as an e/w event.

Other 'value' markets:

---

Meath West 'to have the highest No vote' x34
Yes votes to be less than 60% x1.72

skooterblue2

Aubrie Loud Barbershop wrote: »

Other 'value' markets:

---

Meath West 'to have the highest No vote' x34

I would have guessed that Donegal would have the lowest Yes return.

4068ac1elhodqr

yes, DNG (NE) is the favourite for the highest 'No vote' at x4.33, but MW is the 'value bet' for the lowest No vote returns, as it offers x34.

Dublin (Central) also offers value at a whopping x51 (50/1) , for the highest Yes votes, but Dublin S/SE may clinch it at x3.

Hulk Hands

Aubrie Loud Barbershop wrote: »

Or with a bunch of 600 notes on the way out of bookies.
The 'No vote' is 'somewhat unlikely' to win, but certainly has a 'strong possibility' all the same.
Only a time traveller could call with absolute certainty the actual result on this.

The only reason for calling it 'value' is that it's offered at a 1 in 5 chance.
whereas some folks (inc myself) think it's more like a 1 in 3 chance, that's all.
Odds may balance out closer to event time so 'lay offsetting' is another strategy.

This market isn't available as an accumulator currently, and isn't classed as an e/w event.

Other 'value' markets:

---

Meath West 'to have the highest No vote' x34
Yes votes to be less than 60% x1.72

It's 5/1. 5/1 is a '1 in 6' chance, not a 1 in 5 chance.

Lay offsetting? With no betfair market whatsoever. Right. For that strategy to work, you'd have to back it now at 5s, and hope it shortens all the way down to about 5/2, where in that case you could hedge out on yes at 1/4. It'd basically have to halve in price. Even in the incredibly unlikely event that did happen, with your 170 max on 5/1, you'd hedge out 820 at 1/4 for a massive profit of 32 quid. A lot of risk there for 32 quid. I won't say my true thoughts on it for fear of a ban, but suffice to say that a back to lay strategy in this case isnt a smart move whatsoever

4068ac1elhodqr

It's common knowledge that Betfair(exchange) isn't a 'pre-requisite' or the only method of applying a 'lay-type approach', but maybe you know this already.

1 unit at x6 and
2 units at x1.5^ is break even (risk elimination) with Y majority result, or 200% profit with the N result.

^ I've thrown in the x1.5 figure as a possibility, yes it's only 1.12 today, but very recently 3 main polls all recently commented on the rise of the no/undecided and some slippage of the yes share. One poll specified only 53% for Y. Not of course that polls at all important, it will boil down to the final few days campaigning towards the undecided. Many of the undecided will make impulse based, instinctual final decisions. There is also some separate historical data on referendum land-sliding. Before the final close of event, may also likely to be some price volatility as bet frequency increases. Even picking a (realistic x1.2) in the coming days for Y to win would only cause an acceptable small loss.

Saying all that, the <60% Y option is a very attractive bet option at around x1.72.

skooterblue2

http://theliberal.ie/gay-marriage-tomorrows-sunday-independent-reveals-yes-vote-plunges-to-53/

Might not be so clear cut now

Hulk Hands

Aubrie Loud Barbershop wrote: »

It's common knowledge that Betfair(exchange) isn't a 'pre-requisite' or the only method of applying a 'lay-type approach', but maybe you know this already.

Obviously I know that already, haven't I just explained a scenario exactly explaining that in the post directly above yours!

Getting 1.5 on yes would need the No odds to drop from 6.0 to about 2.62. Hoping/expecting that to happen is incredibly optimistic at best and borderline insanity at worst. It's a horrible strategy.

Those polls are well expected as a yes biased media attempts to get people out to vote. Even if the 53% yes was accurate, 5 days before the vote, that would still make the 1/8 yes great value. I've layed a bit of 7/1 No to a couple of poor unfortunates. Hopefully get a bit more action in coming days

desertcircus

skooterblue2 wrote: »

http://theliberal.ie/gay-marriage-tomorrows-sunday-independent-reveals-yes-vote-plunges-to-53/

Might not be so clear cut now

53% Yes, 24% No, 23% Don't Know. There are campaigns that would kill for that kind of support a week out from polling; the No side need to win every single voter on the fence and convert maybe sixty thousand Yes votes as well just to draw even.

Carlos Orange

I wonder how polls handle turnout. There is always going to be a difference between how people would vote if they voted and how the people who vote actually vote.

OI OI

Couldnt agree more with Hulk Hands, 9/2 on a No vote is woeful bad value, the press always like to make it sound like a close call, it would take unbelievable switch in opinion and lying to the pollsters for the No side to win. People keep mentioning the UK polls, but its silly to compare the two, while the conservatives got an unexpected majority, if you look at it the real % swing was only couple of points. The same sex opinion polls are roughly showing about 67 - 33, now silent no or not, that is an unassailable lead in a week. The likes of paddy power know that the majoirty of punters will back the No as most are mugs who think 9/2 sounds like good value in a 2 horse race and dont have the dough to punt the odds on. They are also carving people up on the over round, 1/8 and 9/2! I'd lay the No all day long myself, so if anyone wants to back the No with me at 7/1 they can have it.

4068ac1elhodqr

Interestingly Powers just cut the No from x6 to x4, with Yes now available at x1.2 (as predicted above, yesterday).
Boyles still have the x6 available so availing of both x6 & x1.2 leaves smaller risk margin.
Will x1.4 N available later in the week? Perhaps...

The sub-60% Y is looking option better all the time and still available at x1.73, even though 80% of punt/ers are on it.

Perhaps worth reiterating this discussion is within the gambling forum, and whilst we all know many people have very strong personal views (as demonstrated on numerous other separate topics/forums). The focus here is purely on prediction, foresight, value of ROI (return of investment), discussion of unforeseen random variables on results. And of course, primarily: beating the bookies.

Other variables:
Poor weather on the day could reduce the No vote, as they are more apathetic overall to vote.
Believe the Polls quoted error of margin is much higher than their stated of 2.5%, maybe 7%.

Q. Does the '20%+/- currently undecided' (from the polls) include the estimated 40% whom won't even 'statistically' be part of the turnout?

ianburke

pity this wasnt on betfair. it will end up 1/4 5/2 by thursday id imagine would have been a decent chance to make a profit eventhough i cant see the no side winning. tbh id be a no voter but if its raining i wont even bother turning up. and im sure there are many more no voters like myself

4068ac1elhodqr

Agree, and many folks would laugh at the weather suggestion, but it could be very real apathetic factor.
The No voters have less to loose than the Yes voters have to gain, many of whom might have vested direct personal interest.

Another factor to consider would be that a too successful Yes campaign could backfire. Common folk are an awkward bunch, who resent being told strongly what to do or think. Id compare it to the media coverage of Cricket in the UK. Very few people actually play cricket, they honestly don't mind it, and essentially have little opinion, nor interest on it. But as it receives constant almost daily coverage right across the national media, maybe it has bought itself a divisive 'Marmite factor', it otherwise would not have. Nobody really dislikes badminton, it's just badminton after all, ask them their views on cricket though...

Friday 22nd: 16oC, sunny, a couple of showers, rain in the evening.

efb

Went with Dub Central 50/1 for highest yes and Kerry South 8/1 for highest no

The_Kew_Tour

I would not back the No Vote if you gave me 50\1.

The Yes will win and win with bit to spare. The quiet vote of the Eastern European and African vote towards No might edge it bit more towards the No vote but I be surprised if Yes got anything less then 65% of the vote.

Hulk Hands

OI OI wrote: »

Couldnt agree more with Hulk Hands, 9/2 on a No vote is woeful bad value, the press always like to make it sound like a close call, it would take unbelievable switch in opinion and lying to the pollsters for the No side to win. People keep mentioning the UK polls, but its silly to compare the two, while the conservatives got an unexpected majority, if you look at it the real % swing was only couple of points. The same sex opinion polls are roughly showing about 67 - 33, now silent no or not, that is an unassailable lead in a week. The likes of paddy power know that the majoirty of punters will back the No as most are mugs who think 9/2 sounds like good value in a 2 horse race and dont have the dough to punt the odds on. They are also carving people up on the over round, 1/8 and 9/2! I'd lay the No all day long myself, so if anyone wants to back the No with me at 7/1 they can have it.

I was starting to lose faith in humanity a bit, so good to see this. Im fairly sure the NO is a big loser in all books as mugs have their 20 quids. I got 1300 on Yes there at 1/4 and 2/9 across a few shops there though so happy enough, on top of what ive laid at 7/1. Literally free money

ianburke

where did you lay 7/1? cant find markets anywhere

Collie D

The_Kew_Tour wrote: »

I would not back the No Vote if you gave me 50\1.

The Yes will win and win with bit to spare. The quiet vote of the Eastern European and African vote towards No might edge it bit more towards the No vote but I be surprised if Yes got anything less then 65% of the vote.

I'm pretty sure only Irish citizens get to vote in referenda. But I agree with your figures. Based on yesterday's poll the Yes vote is at just under 70% when don't knows are excluded

Hulk Hands

ianburke wrote: »

where did you lay 7/1? cant find markets anywhere

Sorry, to a couple of people I know in daily life rather than online

ianburke

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Sorry, to a couple of people I know in daily life rather than online

cool. i would have gone on and done the same had there been a market on betfair. 3/1 is a terrible back price now for those backing it

robbiezero

Hulk Hands wrote: »

I was starting to lose faith in humanity a bit, so good to see this. Im fairly sure the NO is a big loser in all books as mugs have their 20 quids. I got 1300 on Yes there at 1/4 and 2/9 across a few shops there though so happy enough, on top of what ive laid at 7/1. Literally free money

Where is 1/4 available?