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Marriage referendum 11/2 no vote

  • 11-05-2015 11:29am
    #1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 912 gravehold


    This seems like very good odds I put 20 euro down as there is a large silent no vote so it's not in the bag, is there a chance of straight people betting then voting note to help win the bet as gay marraige doesn't effect them.

    I know a few that put a bet on and voting no now.


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Comments

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Aubrie Loud Barbershop


    Interesting proposal and after some consideration there may well be some logic behind the large, silenced silent, conservative, over-40's and maybe slightly rural and fairly active Catholic (4 million) traditional voice.

    The odds on offer are a fairly decent @x6, though not available as an 'add-on accumulator' as the only bookies with it (pp's) only offer it as single small-stakes market, so nothing to get too excited about.

    Stats showing only 32% of participating punters choosing the no option, then again powers had a 'slightly pro-yes' outdoor ad campaign for it. Another note is the turnout, expecting a decent 50% of population. Though consider that every young liberal hipster across the land and their buddies would likely making their mark. Perhaps if the church(s) run a minibus shuttle service and free cups of tea/ham sandwiches they can clinch it.

    http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/irish-politics/gay-marriage-referendum-result


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 912 gravehold


    Yeah pitty about the accumulater, I know a few people putting down bets at the odds and plan to vote no now where they probably wouldn't have bothered before, so even have those odds will also help on the day for no to win


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,135 ✭✭✭ Gregk961
    Registered User


    Probably going to sound like a complete turd here but to place a bet and then cast your vote on an important referendum to help improve the chances of your bet is shameful to be honest.

    I really wouldn't be pushed on either side of the vote but what you're doing is pretty appaling, to me at least.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 12,333 ✭✭✭✭ JONJO THE MISER
    Banned


    Gregk961 wrote: »
    Probably going to sound like a complete turd here but to place a bet and then cast your vote on an important referendum to help improve the chances of your bet is shameful to be honest.

    I really wouldn't be pushed on either side of the vote but what you're doing is pretty appaling, to me at least.

    I see no problem with it, everything is fair game in gambling if you can profit from it.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,135 ✭✭✭ Gregk961
    Registered User


    I see no problem with it, everything is fair game in gambling if you can profit from it.

    Like I said its my personal opinion. If nothing else its throwing away a vote.

    I would argue your point about anything being fair. I know plenty of punters who would stick there hand into a betting shop till and call it profit, however there are plenty of ways to be a succesful gambler without cheating.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Aubrie Loud Barbershop


    Realistically (in context) a few fellows (guessing maybe a dozen) with this approach won't have an affect on the outcome, nor should they expect any significant influence on the outcome. Any punters doing so with that intention would also be unlikely to vote in any case, otherwise they would have stronger definite views on it.

    I'd be tempted to add the No option on an accumulator (if available) regardless of whether or not I'd even bother to vote, simply as it offers good value. Also have selections on Eurovision, BigBrother etc but a single phone vote won't be used or have any real affect on outcomes unless had 100k twitteraties. And won't be upset if Ruska and one of the media hungry narcissists win the event.


  • Registered Users Posts: 684 ✭✭✭ ianburke
    Registered User


    no harm in folks trying to profit from a no. they are entitled to vote any way they want.

    doubt they'll raise enough to make a difference but good luck to anyone that tries. i wont be betting on this type of mickey mouse market but the op makes a valid point about the silent ones. ive sat on the fence with a view to not upsetting any of my friends but ill be voting no on the day.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Aubrie Loud Barbershop


    Can't really compare a vote to cheating/robbing bookie tills, as is no different to chanting support for a football team from the stands.

    - A closer comparison to cheating could be picking up x27ew for Finland (EV) via Oddschecker when everyone else dropped it to x17. But then a (paid) Traders miscalculation is just a strategic investor's benefit. Or picking cons to win (ukelection) at x13 which seemed 'far far too generous an investment offering' at the time.

    Worth mentioning too, although it's classed as a 'novelty market', there is very little that's mickymouse about a 550% Return on Investment ;).

    It's also an AvB class event, so less risk involved than e.g. ManU vs Chelsea (which could draw). BigBrother: now that's fairly micky-mouse, due to far too many 'random-event occurrences' (mostly instigated by the producers themselves throughout the entire duration). Value to be had all the same...

    With about 8 days to go likely the odds may well drop further (common trend), today's stats are 35% punting the No (increase), and odds down to x5.5 (was x6 yesterday). High horses folks aside, people can vote whatever way they wish and for whatever reason they choose and this is a gambling (high-risk-investment) forum after all.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,816 ✭✭✭ skooterblue2
    Banned


    Hi I know nothing about gambling
    what Kind of odds would I get if (no to marriage equality) and (no to presidential refendum) and (Bobby Alyward Fianna Fail to get in in Carlow Kilkenny)?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Aubrie Loud Barbershop


    As described above x5.5 (9/2) with ppowers for the no vote, so £100 staked = £550 in pocket.
    Though Ladbrookes have also just opened a market for this event at x6 (5/1).

    For the other one you'd need to search for it, usually under 'political' or 'novelty' sections. Likely only Irish bookmakers would consider offering prices on that one pre-elections, only 'next leaders' of the main parties and that type of thing currently offered.

    But remember... only bet what you can afford to lose, and give away any excess that you don't really need :)


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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,002 ✭✭✭ Hulk Hands
    Registered User


    This is probably the worst value bet in the history of betting. The market is only up for publicity reasons. There's a reason every bookie isnt taking bets on this. It's a done deal. There needs to be a 55-45 split in the polls for there even to be a slight chance of an upset. What are the polls right now, 65-35? Look at the Scottish referendum when the No side only had a 2% poll lead weeks beforehand yet was still a 1/4, 1/5 shot. I'm not one to say something has no chance, everything has its price but the real price on this is closer to 200/1


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,002 ✭✭✭ Hulk Hands
    Registered User


    MOD

    <snip>

    NO.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,930 duckysauce


    Hulk Hands wrote: »
    This is probably the worst value bet in the history of betting. The market is only up for publicity reasons. There's a reason every bookie isnt taking bets on this. It's a done deal. There needs to be a 55-45 split in the polls for there even to be a slight chance of an upset. What are the polls right now, 65-35? Look at the Scottish referendum when the No side only had a 2% poll lead weeks beforehand yet was still a 1/4, 1/5 shot. I'm not one to say something has no chance, everything has its price but the real price on this is closer to 200/1

    will you lay it on betfair for that ?


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,002 ✭✭✭ Hulk Hands
    Registered User


    duckysauce wrote: »
    will you lay it on betfair for that ?

    I offered up a lay price in the above post but apparantly its not allowed. Anyway, why on earth would I lay 200s on betfair when I can back 1/8 and 1/10 Yes in irish shops? Not that i'd be able to get on something to make it worth my while anyway


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Aubrie Loud Barbershop


    200/1 sure would be a nice price, and would likely see an un-orderly queue on the street corners of turf accountants nationwide.

    Boyles just opened up the book for it at x6, so three books now offering the market, at realistic prices.
    Wouldn't trust the polls, as proven recently in the uk's elections - they all got it very wrong.

    Remember though to make any 'x marks' in biro, don't trust those (erasable) pencil marks...


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,002 ✭✭✭ Hulk Hands
    Registered User


    200/1 sure would be a nice price, and would likely see an un-orderly queue on the street corners of turf accountants nationwide.

    Boyles just opened up the book for it at x6, so three books now offering the market, at realistic prices.
    Wouldn't trust the polls, as proven recently in the uk's elections - they all got it very wrong.

    Remember though to make any 'x marks' in biro, don't trust those (erasable) pencil marks...

    How were they so wrong in the UK elections? Predicted Tories comfortably most seats. Didnt predict an overall majority, but the polls were still only out by less than a couple of % to account for that. The initial exit poll taken on election night was absolutely spot on. The polls have to travel seismically to even indicate a chance. I'll concede a no vote its actually possible. That doesnt stop 5/1 being one of the worst prices in living history. Only plus point for anyone insane enough to back it is the limits are tiny, so you can only lose a miniscule amount.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,930 duckysauce


    Hulk Hands wrote: »
    I offered up a lay price in the above post but apparantly its not allowed. Anyway, why on earth would I lay 200s on betfair when I can back 1/8 and 1/10 Yes in irish shops? Not that i'd be able to get on something to make it worth my while anyway

    why spout about 200's then if it's not achievable ??


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,002 ✭✭✭ Hulk Hands
    Registered User


    duckysauce wrote: »
    why spout about 200's then if it's not achievable ??

    All I said was that the true price was closer to 200/1. As in that what the 100% price should be. Surely thats the aim of what we're doing here in gambling forum, trying to find value? How can we find value without talking about what the true price should be?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Aubrie Loud Barbershop


    True (market) price is x6 not x200, otherwise that's what several books would now be offering those particular numericals instead.
    x200 is simply nonsense, even after (HH) themselves said the polls show 65% vs 35%, sure that's simply poor use of an abacus/pocket calculator.

    Must say am less confident in the No vote winning (51% or more share), than I was calling in the recent UK election to the Con(Maj) at x13 circa (which was influenced by the main polls in the run-up: which ALL predicted a coalition, as the likely probability. This was offered with tiny odds <1mth avg. of x1.15).

    ...Less confident simply because the No voters know they will be badgered into a repeat vote again if they do succeed, bit like that EU referendum one, thus their motivation will be lower to even partake. x6 still is value all the same, x4 or x5 is about right, but do have concerns regarding No's motivation to make the effort, and mightn't touch this particular market unless it can be wild-card accumulated.

    Often though, the simple application of gut logic theories, whether plain simple singular or 'contextually laterally complex' can super-seed manufactured stats, charts, powerpoint presentations and sampled focus-group polling :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 47 ✭✭✭ chops27
    Registered User


    Good odds, I agree there are alot of no voters in the closet......forgive the pun


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  • Registered Users Posts: 144 ✭✭ CobraClan
    Registered User


    I'll be voting yes, and you know why? Because I belive in love! And if you don't like it you can get the f..k out! :D


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Aubrie Loud Barbershop


    or Gin bottle!

    ...only joking CC, sure feel free to vote what ever way you want for whatever reason. Although eternal-light-spirit-infinite-conciousness in a humanoid-body-physical-manifestation doesn't require legal verification of true love, so don't worry toooo much.

    ...That's what I told mi' Julie anyway when she saw presented a pre-nuptial agreement.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,002 ✭✭✭ Hulk Hands
    Registered User


    True (market) price is x6 not x200, otherwise that's what several books would now be offering those particular numericals instead.
    x200 is simply nonsense, even after (HH) themselves said the polls show 65% vs 35%, sure that's simply poor use of an abacus/pocket calculator.

    What on earth are you on about? Firstly odds are displayed in fractions (6/1), decimals (7.0) or even the American way (+600). Why do you keep saying x6? You clearly have no idea what 'true price' means. This is the real 100% market price after margin is taken out. If the 'true price' is 'x6' in your opinion, then why on earth would you be backing 5/1 and saying its value?
    Must say am less confident in the No vote winning (51% or more share), than I was calling in the recent UK election to the Con(Maj) at x13 circa (which was influenced by the main polls in the run-up: which ALL predicted a coalition, as the likely probability. This was offered with tiny odds <1mth avg. of x1.15). )

    Will you please stop on about poxing some UK election bet in a market that you'd struggle to get 20 quid on. We get it, you won a bet. Well done.
    Often though, the simple application of gut logic theories, whether plain simple singular or 'contextually laterally complex' can super-seed manufactured stats, charts, powerpoint presentations and sampled focus-group polling :)

    This is just gibberish. 'Gut logic theories'. I feel stupider for having read it


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Aubrie Loud Barbershop


    Yes the (decimal) price (today) is x6 for the No vote. Fractions are perhaps for the older generation of punters at the sides of horse race tracks, with tweed caps, walking sticks etc. of little use for calculating returns on multiple accumulations.

    x201 or 200/1 (or thereabouts as a ROI - which is what were talking about here after all, not bookmakers margins) is again, clearly pure utter nonsense, when the punting share is at 40% for the No vote.

    Nope, not just 20quid, and not just a single, but also as a multiplier on the end of other multiple accumulators, thank you.

    If we lived by the world of statistical probabilities, the 1st Fav would always win every race/event and would be little point in punting any other.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,002 ✭✭✭ Hulk Hands
    Registered User


    Complete and utter gibberish again. 200/1 as an ROI? 40% punting share? I dont even think you know yourself what point you're trying to make.

    I know very well that favs dont always win, a brief glance over my posting history would tell you I generally oppose favs. That doesnt mean that every outsider is good value. This one is case in point

    Anyway, its a terrible terrible value 5/1 shot. If anyone wants to go along with it, feel free


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Aubrie Loud Barbershop


    Well what you implied earlier was that there was only 1 in 200 chance of the No vote winning. When actually 4 out of every 10 punters/bets were actively backing the No bet.

    Thus, (theoretically), I'd happily hand you over 1k if you had 200k in crispy new notes available to hand back.

    So in summary, we can 'agree to disagree' that 5/1 (or x6) is realistic/fair odds.

    Haven't placed any bets yet as would always prefer accumulate, and might hold back - as it may even move higher for a short bursts (based on media influences: stats, press releases, campaign activity...) closer to the event time.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,293 StealthRolex
    Registered User


    Is anyone offering an accumulator bet on this in case we vote the wrong way the first time and have to keep voting until we vote the right way?

    Or have I misunderstood Irish democracy and we are now allowed to vote the way the government doesn't want us to vote ...


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,189 ✭✭✭✭ Shanotheslayer
    Registered User


    Can't wait to see peoples betslips with 100 odd quid on the No Vote. Seeing as it's ''Good Value''


  • Registered Users Posts: 684 ✭✭✭ ianburke
    Registered User


    9/2 with pp max i can get on is 1.70 . i am limited to 1% with pp though so unrestricted accounts can bet 170 which is a lot more than i thought they would lay in a novelty market like this.

    i reckon it will end up 1/5, 3/1 by midweek. yes could be worth a punt then


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Aubrie Loud Barbershop


    Or with a bunch of 600 notes on the way out of bookies.
    The 'No vote' is 'somewhat unlikely' to win, but certainly has a 'strong possibility' all the same.
    Only a time traveller could call with absolute certainty the actual result on this.

    The only reason for calling it 'value' is that it's offered at a 1 in 5 chance.
    whereas some folks (inc myself) think it's more like a 1 in 3 chance, that's all.
    Odds may balance out closer to event time so 'lay offsetting' is another strategy.

    This market isn't available as an accumulator currently, and isn't classed as an e/w event.

    Other 'value' markets:
    Meath West 'to have the highest No vote' x34
    Yes votes to be less than 60% x1.72


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