Amber Snow Alert

17-02-2005 8:34pm

Weathercheck wrote:

TV3 = lot of

TV3 are well to be generous poor at forecasting

Very very good tonight snow showers will dump around
5cm's daily in the east

I see MattyH is in full ramp mode over on TWO which is very unusual.
Yer man on RTÉ said sunday will be wet with a lot of showers in off the Irish sea.
Wet was the word not a flake of snow mentioned - I would be surprised if there wasnt some snow in the mix on Sunday.

As regards monday onwards there will be snow.It's actually still too early to say how cold the air is going to be though or how much precipitation.
Theres two levels of cold in my book, theres cold enough to snow and theres cold enough for snow to settle.
I've seen wet snow fall persistantly for hours and not settle untill dusk-the extra degree drop being the clincher.

17-02-2005 8:37pm

irish1 wrote:

What about metchecks percentages??

I've never liked their calculations for here.
They dont seem to take into account local things like Irish sea convection showers.
Its as if their model in this case is calculating the chances of snow showers falling in kent reaching Ireland.
They dont look at our own home grown Irish sea ones and there will be a lot of them.
There has to be with high sea water temps and polar air travelling above it with pressure not too high.
That equals an unstable athmosphere.

Supercell · 17-02-2005 8:37pm

Weathercheck wrote:

Very very good tonight snow showers will dump around
5cm's daily in the east

If the 9AM reading at Dublin Airport shows >5cm at any day next week I would be HUGELY suprised!!

Villain · 17-02-2005 8:40pm

So going on current charts we'r looking at about 5 cms of snow in the east by monday night, would that be correct? and how far in do you think the showers will come, i.e. will west carlow see these showers?

Isn't nice to discuss something other than politics earthman, even if it is only the weather

Supercell · 17-02-2005 8:44pm

Earthman wrote:

I've never liked their calculations for here.
They dont seem to take into account local things like Irish sea convection showers.
Its as if their model in this case is calculating the chances of snow showers falling in kent reaching Ireland.
They dont look at our own home grown Irish sea ones and there will be a lot of them.
There has to be with high sea water temps and polar air travelling above it with pressure not too high.
That equals an unstable athmosphere.

Well am not so sure about the high sea temp part

, but with CAPE and LI reasonable (for the time of year) from Monday onwards..so convective precipitation is indeed likely if/when the wind gets a ne component.

17-02-2005 8:44pm

irish1 wrote:

So going on current charts we'r looking at about 5 cms of snow in the east by monday night, would that be correct? and how far in do you think the showers will come, i.e. will west carlow see these showers?

Isn't nice to discuss something other than politics earthman, even if it is only the weather

Shush dont mention that in here

I'm of the view that Tullow will see some snow yes and before monday.
I could be wrong and to be frank while the charts look good on the cold front(unintentional pun) precipitation is difficult to tie down as it will be in the form of showers and these are a hit and miss affair.

17-02-2005 8:46pm

Longfield wrote:

Well am not so sure about the high sea temp part , but CAPE and LI reasonable (for the time of year) from Monday onwards..so convective preciptation is indeed likely if/when the wind gets a ne component.

heh dont give away all my commonor garden language secrets will ya

Supercell · 17-02-2005 9:00pm

Hmmmmmmmm 12z ensembles .. http://129.13.102.67/wz/pics/MT8_Dublin_ens.png

Interpretation , looks possible that a front/trough will move through on monday ...three of the models say its going to be rain ..the rest say snow or it will pass to the west leaving Dublin in the cold sector....hmm interesting stuff.
There is a huge amount of varience in the near term in the dublin than for example the Aberdeen one ..http://129.13.102.67/wz/pics/MT8_Aberdeen_ens.png

Its feasable we may have about one day of cold and thats it..as to talk of 5 + days of extreme weather ..looks very very unlikely

Danno · 17-02-2005 9:01pm

John Eagleton mentioned "Rain Showers" in the east coast for Sunday.

Kinda reminds me of the "if you are unsure, go with mild..." type of thinking.

Anyways, the air will be cold enough over West Carlow and Laois to turn those dying rain showers into snow!

Supercell · 17-02-2005 9:08pm

Right now i'd say Met Éireann is spot on with ..

Sunday and Monday will be very cold, with North or Northeast winds. Most parts will be dry and bright - but scattered wintry showers will occur also and may produce some falls of snow, especially on hills. (Northern and Eastern areas are most at risk). Widespread night frosts are likely too.
http://www.met.ie/forecasts/

Danno · 17-02-2005 9:33pm

TWO has gone black-out!

Danno · 17-02-2005 9:34pm

http://img.snow-forecast.com/images2/uksnownext3to6days.jpg <<< Yup, Laois looks nice for the next 3-6days!

Danno · 17-02-2005 9:44pm

Danno wrote:

TWO has gone black-out!

As too has www.weathercheck.net :eek:

17-02-2005 9:52pm

Danno wrote:

As too has www.weathercheck.net :eek:

He's probably working on an even snowier picture for his front page.
The usual snowy picture indicates mild conditions-so he needs something dire for this.

I believe they are working on TWO-service will resume there no doubt.

I hope we're not next... :eek:

Danno · 17-02-2005 10:00pm

Hope not!

Anyone got links to the latest fax charts? Going out as far as possible?

Gonzo · 17-02-2005 10:02pm

i dont think it will be cold enough for snow till around late sunday night/monday morning with temperatures still around 5 to 7C on Sunday, so im inclined to go with RTE's predictions of wet conditions in the east with maybe sleet, i think we could see 3C by monday and the showers then should fall as snow but remember about a month or more ago we had a band of rain in the east and it stayed rain even tho the temperatures were around 1 and 2C so im still a bit uneasy about wheather it will snow or not, however the charts are showing that the worst temperatures will be from tuesday onwards to friday with temperatures around 0C in the east with plenty of showers and about 4C in the west with plenty of sunshine. At the moment the BBC are only looking at the showers coming from the north sea and lashing the eastern half of the UK with unbroken sunshine over wales and Ireland, they seem to forget what the irish sea is capable of during easterlies which sometimes can be as good as the north sea for producing snow showers. However I cant see these showers travelling much further than 50km inland from the irish east coast.

Supercell · 17-02-2005 10:17pm

Danno wrote:

http://img.snow-forecast.com/images2/uksnownext3to6days.jpg <<< Yup, Laois looks nice for the next 3-6days!

Those charts are notoriously inaccurate..take them with pound of salt!!

ninebeanrows · 17-02-2005 10:17pm

Will be back up this evening working hard to get a few new
special items and forecasts for the cold spell. Might be
tomorrow morning before i get it up,hope not

And it's looking

Back to work

Supercell · 17-02-2005 10:21pm

Earthman wrote:

He's probably working on an even snowier picture for his front page.
The usual snowy picture indicates mild conditions-so he needs something dire for this.

I believe they are working on TWO-service will resume there no doubt.

I hope we're not next... :eek:

Nah, while Matt does forecast blizzards at the drop of a hat ....many other site owners secretly want to do the same..the spell coming up is unusual for the time of year and especially given the last few post dot com winters..i think there is a few webmasters that want to express all that pent up snow lust

)

chump · 17-02-2005 10:23pm

sniff

http://www.weathercheck.net/oldlook

sniff

ninebeanrows · 17-02-2005 10:26pm

ne ne ne.. aint nothing there CHUMP

Danno · 17-02-2005 10:28pm

Hope it is easy to follow Matt!

Keep it simple, and more reguarly updated.

ninebeanrows · 17-02-2005 10:33pm

Laughable forecast from John Eagleton..laughable!

Really people do not loose heart with that poor forecast.

I can guarantee that snow showers will start falling
in the east from around Sunday morning

The forecast was :eek: really really :eek:

Leading people into a false secruity :rolleyes:

Danno · 17-02-2005 10:45pm

If unsure... go for mild - as I said earlier.

MET E are notorious for not predicting snow until 24hrs to go...

ninebeanrows · 17-02-2005 10:59pm

Honestly looking at the charts again tonight no one in the east
should worry about whether the precip falls as rain or sleet.

It WILL fall as snow, all the ingredients are there. 850hpa temperatures of
-10c and around 520 dam air...lets just say the snow line will
arrive in the east late Saturday

Ray777 · 17-02-2005 11:21pm

John 'The Eagle' Eagleton has it spot-on, I reckon. Cold rain, that's all we're getting

Danno · 17-02-2005 11:25pm

Bah, maybe on Howth Head or something, but over 30 or 40 miles inland should be cold enough for snow.

Gonzo · 17-02-2005 11:29pm

met eireann already screwed up once this week already with fthe severe frost the night before last when it was supposed to be mild. Sky news has a few snow flurrie symbols over east ireland for monday and they claim the main cold comes in from monday evening/tuesday

Danno · 17-02-2005 11:36pm

Hmmm, Sky News LOL!

I shout "blizzard" when I see a 4c and rainfall over Ireland

Gonzo · 17-02-2005 11:36pm

just after looking at the charts on http://www2.wetter3.de/animation.html and they seem to have changed their tune since this morning and are now showing the cold snap ending by wednesday over ireland and scotland with mild weather returning from the atlantic... this morning they had the cold snap intensifing by wednesday/thursday.

Supercell · 17-02-2005 11:47pm

Well closer to the time realism was bound to set in regardless of some peoples wild predictions ..an 80's spell this never was ..( though i wish it was

)

Danno · 17-02-2005 11:48pm

G'nite all.

Se you all 2morrow¬!

ninebeanrows · 18-02-2005 12:35am

This pessimism is crazy the charts are excellant..

GFS 18z obviously not so good but the cold spell still
lasts until Friday next week and even it is is likely
to be as mild outlier, there will be no cold rain folks,
dont get worried

Snow will start falling from late Saturday

omnicorp · 18-02-2005 12:37am

in Dublin?

Scubadevils · 18-02-2005 12:39am

Weathercheck wrote:

This pessimism is crazy the charts are excellant..

GFS 18z obviously not so good but the cold spell still
lasts until Friday next week and even it is is likely
to be as mild outlier, there will be no cold rain folks,
dont get worried

Snow will start falling from late Saturday

from as early as late Saturday?

18-02-2005 1:17am

Well the northerly will be here saturday but apart from wintry showers in and along the north coast thats that.

I dont expect to see decent action untill mon/Tues however showers will be likely in Eastern areas on Sunday with snow from them confined mostly to higher ground(but not exclusively)
Thats a guess because this is changing and evolving all the time, which is what you should expect as although there is general agreement on a broad pattern, the subtletys (if such a word exists ) are not certain 5 days out from an event.

Meterologists arent joking when they say stay tuned.
The Irish TV forecasts for instance are being very non committal and rightly so as 1 degree of a temp difference is all it takes for disruption and snow or rain/sleet and no disruption.

billy the squid · 18-02-2005 9:26am

take a look at the 00z there are some nice surprises in there. especially around wednesday. although the chances of going like that are slim but it would be nice.

forgot to add this

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1321.gif

18-02-2005 10:07am

It's charts like that , that make me wonder about GFS.
How on earth could an Atlantic system appear out of nowhere like that and be cold as well.
It would have to be mild, thus your classic cold vs mild battle happening with a lot of snow on the Eastern side of the system.

Not going to happen methinks.

In other news Eveyln Cusack mentioned sleet snow hail ,northeasterlies and siberia all in the one sentence on the radio this morning with the East and leinster most at risk from heavy snowfalls-though she did say the worst effected area would be England( What part of Leinster is England-I'll get out me map

)
The BBC breakfast forecaster Helen Willitts was ramping it up big style also.

billy the squid · 18-02-2005 10:20am

were the conditions different in February 1978, just wondering as I have read somewhere that that chart could create a repeat of it were it to come to pass

more info on February 1978 blizzards

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/datkbarch.asp?id=77
http://www.eclipse.co.uk/wradmore/bradninch/history/1978snow/1978snow.htm

ninebeanrows · 18-02-2005 11:03am

Hallo all

Well admittedly there has been a wee downgrading this morning
but for us in the east it's still a stunner. Snow showers will
start falling from very late on Saturday and through Sunday
with a little trough affecting eastern areas during Sunday
afternoon giving a few cm's in places. Monday will see snow
showers again in the east with the possibility of a little
LP moving up the west which could spell SNOW for
the East. For Western areas this will probably be a damp
squib but for the east coast it will be a week of

and

Villain · 18-02-2005 11:05am

You always build it up too high, I'd reckon we'll be lucky to see any lying snow in the east, I hope I'm wrong but I doubt anything major will happen apart from a few showers.

magpie · 18-02-2005 11:13am

Is it just me, or is it a lot warmer today?

pollyantic · 18-02-2005 11:17am

Gotta say i love these weather threads

You've got the calm coleected tell it like it is guys and the boy who cried wolf fighting it out all the time

Looks like it wont be the end of the world next week then.

18-02-2005 11:22am

Weathercheck wrote:

Hallo all

Well admittedly there has been a wee downgrading this morning
but for us in the east it's still a stunner. Snow showers will
start falling from very late on Saturday and through Sunday
with a little trough affecting eastern areas during Sunday
afternoon giving a few cm's in places.

Snow from that will be borderline I think, and probably confined to hills as the real cold air wont have dug in by then.
The fun proper wont be untill monday-but its no way certain-nothing ever is.
Significant snow fall is possible but it will be a hit and miss affair, such is the nature of showers.

ninebeanrows · 18-02-2005 11:40am

Lots to get through this morning...

A few touch and go snow events next week.

Firstly snow showers will hug the east coast through
Sunday giving small accumalations through the day
and through Sunday night. Temperatures will rise
to no more than 3c in the east and no more than 5c
in the west. A hard frost will follow with temperatures
plummeting to -4 or -5c. A period of light snow will
affect eastern areas towards midnight.

Monday hits with the possiblity of a snow event in the east
a little low pressure moves down the west of the country
falling as sleet or rain here but falling as snow on the eastern
limit of the precipitation, whether the precipitation will reach the
far east is not known yet but if it did it would dump upto
10cm's of snow. A bitter day maxima of no more than 1 or 2c
where the snow is falling and 3 or 4c at max elsewhere.

Tuesday spells more trouble for the east with temperatures already
-2 or -3c a little low pressure will form over the centre of the country
and wrap the cold air into the east with periods of prolonged snow.
This feature could leave another 10cm's of snow in the east.

ninebeanrows · 18-02-2005 11:42am

Earthman Sunday will be cold enough for snow infact
it's looking colder than Monday and Tuesday

Gonzo · 18-02-2005 11:50am

since yesterday morning this cold spell is degrading slightly all the time, i think we will still get it but it may only be for 2 days where snow is possible and even then only showers where some places will escape and some areas will get a few inchs and this all been in the eastern third of the country. The cold spell proper is meant to last for a full week in southern and south east england with milder conditons edging into ireland and scotland which could be enough to turn the snow showers back into rain, even 1C rise could make this difference. This time yesterday i was expecting widespread disruption in the east but this seems to be looking more unlikely as the charts continue to change for the slightly milder and things are becoming more accurate. once again tho i dont fully believe these charts, they have been wrong so many times this winter even 24 hours in advance.

18-02-2005 12:00pm

To cheer Gonzo up...

http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rtavn1682.html

Look where that -10 850 air is

Weathercheck feel free by the way to talk of the latest runs , they're not bad at all as regards bitter cold and snow...

ninebeanrows · 18-02-2005 12:01pm

Gonzo i think the charts are misleading you..

On a chart like this
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1321.gif

Reds and yellow's are not necessarily warm

Here the corresponding temp chart
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1322.gif

And everyone seems paranoid about "England" doing well
out of this, they will but Eastern Ireland will get its fair share too.

And any worry about a 2 day cold spell well it's not going
to be a 2 day cold spell

Even being reserved expect at least a 7 day cold spell
with the liklyhood of it lasting around 10 days

We are good to go people who live with 100 miles of the east coast,
GOOD TO GO from late Saturday snow showers will affect
eastern areas, only a few days to go now

Darwin · 18-02-2005 12:02pm

Sunday is looking pretty cold alright, but theyr.net (who are usually pretty accurate) are not showing any precipation at all up to Sunday midnight - which is their latest post.

Amber Snow Alert

Comments