Amber Snow Alert

ninebeanrows · 17-02-2005 2:38pm

6z Ensembles coming out and not good at all :mad: :mad:
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The cold spell only lasting for 8 or 9 days it would seem

:rolleyes:

:eek:

ninebeanrows · 17-02-2005 2:40pm

An alright amount of precip too averaging out at
about 2-4mm a day equating to about 5-7cm's
of snow

Scubadevils · 17-02-2005 2:47pm

Seems to be a lot of negativity about still on TWO etc with regards to just how cold it will be to produce snow. Or is this normal for the particular individuals? Also talk of little precip around.

17-02-2005 3:09pm

Felixdhc wrote:

Seems to be a lot of negativity about still on TWO etc with regards to just how cold it will be to produce snow. Or is this normal for the particular individuals? Also talk of little precip around.

BBC forecasters are kicking into over drive today.I have BBC one South here via sky digital and their forecaster talked of 0 or sub zero by day there at sealevel and with plenty of snow cover.
Of course there will be some pesimists on TWO-they are looking for too much-theres plenty of optimism there too.
Also many had their fingers burnt by similar charts a few weeks ago.
TWO is big enough though to have a wide range of opinions.
What I'm mainly interested in is as much reality as possible.
Fantasy island forecasts dont interest me that much.

Speaking of TWO though, the funniest comment I read on there recently was some guy saying his local dj on the radio was talking about next weeks freeze and he said " Girls you're going to have to wear your knickers"

Danno · 17-02-2005 3:46pm

Slightly off thread:

What happened to the thread I kicked off last night at 1800z???

Danno · 17-02-2005 3:49pm

Ah, found it! It was in the Current Indications Thread!

Thought I started a new thread for it though!

Danno · 17-02-2005 3:51pm

Rightio, across the internet, various forums, weather websites and official Met Offices have been taking a cautious, but collective agreement on the quite likely development of a substantial cold spell developing across North Western Europe over the weekend and on into next week

But, as we all know, these are UK websites and generally do not include Ireland in issuing forecasts, or don't do so in any great detail.

So, how will this cold event unfold, how will it affect Ireland?

Well, here are my thoughts and opinions:

Friday sees a cold front hovering across the centre of Ireland bringing drizzle and the odd pocket of heavy rain especially to E areas.

This front will push south later into the night, but as it does so, I expect an intense burst of rain over the East, and with cold air already in the north, this cuts in to the rain band and could give sleety conditions for a time.

Into Saturday, and a cold N wind takes over, giving wintry showers to N and NE coasts.

But it is later on on Sunday, when we see a NE coming into line, and a trough of showers will cross N Cenrtal UK, and picking up more steam over the Irish sea. Late in Sunday evening, I expect this line to push over much of Eastern Ireland and into the midlands bringing snowfall for most areas.

Monday sees a repeat performance, but with overcast conditions, the cold will stay in and very little thawing will take place. I expect rather cloudy and flurry style conditions to persist for some days after.

The NW, W and SW will not have much snowfall, and it might not be cold enough there for some. They will enjoy more crisp cool and sunny conditions as they will be closer to the high pressure.

More Later!

magpie · 17-02-2005 3:56pm

Going to Spar to buy canned goods.

17-02-2005 3:57pm

Danno,
We've moved on to discussing the expected icy snowy spell of next week in this thread.
All posts regarding that will be here.
As will reports of weather coming from it ie sleet hail or snow from sunday onwards.
I will temporally close rain or shine for that period also, but it remains open for now of course.

Danno · 17-02-2005 4:09pm

OK! Hard to keep up with it all! It is unfolding quickly!

Scubadevils · 17-02-2005 4:19pm

Earthman wrote:

BBC forecasters are kicking into over drive today.I have BBC one South here via sky digital and their forecaster talked of 0 or sub zero by day there at sealevel and with plenty of snow cover.
Of course there will be some pesimists on TWO-they are looking for too much-theres plenty of optimism there too.
Also many had their fingers burnt by similar charts a few weeks ago.
TWO is big enough though to have a wide range of opinions.
What I'm mainly interested in is as much reality as possible.
Fantasy island forecasts dont interest me that much.

Speaking of TWO though, the funniest comment I read on there recently was some guy saying his local dj on the radio was talking about next weeks freeze and he said " Girls you're going to have to wear your knickers"

I suppose from the past flops I get worried when I read the negative views now rather then getting excited when reading the past positive ones! - but yes, plenty of optimism there too. I suppose I tend to feel that they all want snow and if some are saying its not likely because x, y & z well then maybe they are the ones being more realistic to the outcome (think i'm reading into this too much)

Saw that comment, very good. Could imagine Gerry Ryan saying that too!

ninebeanrows · 17-02-2005 4:53pm

Felix i can tell you that this is not going to flip now

We are set for at least a 5 day freeze and indications
suggest something towards 10 days :eek:

This will be a cold spell like none that we have seen in recent
years and no doubt there will be widespread distruption. Maxima
will struggle to 2 or 3 by day with lots of snow showers about
and more prolonged stuff. The length of the cold spell will also
take many by surprise

This is it folks a cold spell coming up that could beat 2001
and probably a once in a decade event for the east coast.

I'll be staking up on a few essentials at the weekend

Because **IF** we were hit by a blizzard on the east coast
next week which is possible then things could get nasty.

The weather forecaster i reckon just cant believe what has
been placed before them. Charts they look at that look
exactly like those from the 80's!

So getting ready Ireland winters a coming :eek:

Scubadevils · 17-02-2005 5:49pm

OK, I'll stop doubting and get excited

billy the squid · 17-02-2005 6:09pm

was hoping for better things to come out of the 12z but its still good.

Supercell · 17-02-2005 7:42pm

All I can say is some people here seem to be getting totally carried away with this..it is in no way comparable to an 80's cold spell!!
I expect Monday through to maybe Thursday to be cold..with daytime maxima above freezing (at sea leval) with small accumulations ie 1-2 cm..
80's would be about a week of "ice-days" or more, and 10-15 cm at sea leval and much higher at elevation ..neither of which looks likely at the moment.

Ray777 · 17-02-2005 8:00pm

Carried away? That's an understatement. My guess is that it'll be quite chilly this weekend. We might even get a light sprinkling of snow. I won't be stocking up on tinned food. I'll just stick the central heating on.

By monday, I could be eating my words. If I am, I'll eat my hat.

Villain · 17-02-2005 8:06pm

TV3 news predicting snow for monday! But Metcheck is only giving a 10% to 20% chance of snow for the east cost on sunday and monday.

ninebeanrows · 17-02-2005 8:26pm

TV3 = lot of

TV3 are well to be generous poor at forecasting

Very very good tonight snow showers will dump around
5cm's daily in the east

Villain · 17-02-2005 8:29pm

Weathercheck wrote:

TV3 = lot of

TV3 are well to be generous poor at forecasting

Very very good tonight snow showers will dump around
5cm's daily in the east

What about metchecks percentages??

seamus · 17-02-2005 8:31pm

Don't eat amber snow.

Snow was cool on Christmas day, but not now, and certainly not during the week. I've to drive to work....

17-02-2005 8:34pm

Weathercheck wrote:

TV3 = lot of

TV3 are well to be generous poor at forecasting

Very very good tonight snow showers will dump around
5cm's daily in the east

I see MattyH is in full ramp mode over on TWO which is very unusual.
Yer man on RTÉ said sunday will be wet with a lot of showers in off the Irish sea.
Wet was the word not a flake of snow mentioned - I would be surprised if there wasnt some snow in the mix on Sunday.

As regards monday onwards there will be snow.It's actually still too early to say how cold the air is going to be though or how much precipitation.
Theres two levels of cold in my book, theres cold enough to snow and theres cold enough for snow to settle.
I've seen wet snow fall persistantly for hours and not settle untill dusk-the extra degree drop being the clincher.

17-02-2005 8:37pm

irish1 wrote:

What about metchecks percentages??

I've never liked their calculations for here.
They dont seem to take into account local things like Irish sea convection showers.
Its as if their model in this case is calculating the chances of snow showers falling in kent reaching Ireland.
They dont look at our own home grown Irish sea ones and there will be a lot of them.
There has to be with high sea water temps and polar air travelling above it with pressure not too high.
That equals an unstable athmosphere.

Supercell · 17-02-2005 8:37pm

Weathercheck wrote:

Very very good tonight snow showers will dump around
5cm's daily in the east

If the 9AM reading at Dublin Airport shows >5cm at any day next week I would be HUGELY suprised!!

Villain · 17-02-2005 8:40pm

So going on current charts we'r looking at about 5 cms of snow in the east by monday night, would that be correct? and how far in do you think the showers will come, i.e. will west carlow see these showers?

Isn't nice to discuss something other than politics earthman, even if it is only the weather

Supercell · 17-02-2005 8:44pm

Earthman wrote:

I've never liked their calculations for here.
They dont seem to take into account local things like Irish sea convection showers.
Its as if their model in this case is calculating the chances of snow showers falling in kent reaching Ireland.
They dont look at our own home grown Irish sea ones and there will be a lot of them.
There has to be with high sea water temps and polar air travelling above it with pressure not too high.
That equals an unstable athmosphere.

Well am not so sure about the high sea temp part

, but with CAPE and LI reasonable (for the time of year) from Monday onwards..so convective precipitation is indeed likely if/when the wind gets a ne component.

17-02-2005 8:44pm

irish1 wrote:

So going on current charts we'r looking at about 5 cms of snow in the east by monday night, would that be correct? and how far in do you think the showers will come, i.e. will west carlow see these showers?

Isn't nice to discuss something other than politics earthman, even if it is only the weather

Shush dont mention that in here

I'm of the view that Tullow will see some snow yes and before monday.
I could be wrong and to be frank while the charts look good on the cold front(unintentional pun) precipitation is difficult to tie down as it will be in the form of showers and these are a hit and miss affair.

17-02-2005 8:46pm

Longfield wrote:

Well am not so sure about the high sea temp part , but CAPE and LI reasonable (for the time of year) from Monday onwards..so convective preciptation is indeed likely if/when the wind gets a ne component.

heh dont give away all my commonor garden language secrets will ya

Supercell · 17-02-2005 9:00pm

Hmmmmmmmm 12z ensembles .. http://129.13.102.67/wz/pics/MT8_Dublin_ens.png

Interpretation , looks possible that a front/trough will move through on monday ...three of the models say its going to be rain ..the rest say snow or it will pass to the west leaving Dublin in the cold sector....hmm interesting stuff.
There is a huge amount of varience in the near term in the dublin than for example the Aberdeen one ..http://129.13.102.67/wz/pics/MT8_Aberdeen_ens.png

Its feasable we may have about one day of cold and thats it..as to talk of 5 + days of extreme weather ..looks very very unlikely

Danno · 17-02-2005 9:01pm

John Eagleton mentioned "Rain Showers" in the east coast for Sunday.

Kinda reminds me of the "if you are unsure, go with mild..." type of thinking.

Anyways, the air will be cold enough over West Carlow and Laois to turn those dying rain showers into snow!

Supercell · 17-02-2005 9:08pm

Right now i'd say Met Éireann is spot on with ..

Sunday and Monday will be very cold, with North or Northeast winds. Most parts will be dry and bright - but scattered wintry showers will occur also and may produce some falls of snow, especially on hills. (Northern and Eastern areas are most at risk). Widespread night frosts are likely too.
http://www.met.ie/forecasts/

Amber Snow Alert

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