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Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion : Spring/Summer 2020
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ECMWF 06Z showing fairly high potential for thunderstorm activity early Weds morning into Weds day. Overnight temperatures of 16 to 18C, Dp's 15 to 16C .
Forcing along the front with plenty of instability, warm Theata W and Theta E readings, good lapse rates, LLS and DLS available. lift off the mountains in the SW and S, cool upper pool. Thunderstorm potential in the SW and S moving up into the country early morning.
The Fax chart showing Ireland within the 564 DAM line, Sticky night in store Tues into Weds.
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PukkaStukka wrote: »Siobhán Ryan on the Radio1 forecast before 8am said Monday has the potential for heavy thundery rain and spot flooding.
Met É's website says "Very mild and heavy overnight. Scattered thunderstorms and widespread falls of heavy rain will lead to localised flooding."
From Sunday morning onwards looks like it could enter 'Welsh import' terrotiry for the SE and E of Ireland with Monday in particular looking good:
New Moon
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PukkaStukka wrote: »Same restated by JoDo on RTE1 at 6:30. Her forecast was gas
Couldn't remember all the NI counties.0 -
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PukkaStukka wrote: »Same restated by JoDo on RTE1 at 6:30. Her forecast was gas
She consistently annoys both me and the missus!
The frequent lack of structure in her forecasts which seem poorly planned and scripted is both sloppy and very unprofessional. And the wink and the cúpla focail at the end is no compensation for a shoddy job.0 -
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Currently most of the activity Monday over the UK and over waters between Ireland and the UK. How much will stray close to or in over the Irish coast ? Will have to wait and see maps closer to the time.
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The rain seems to be be only just making landfall.
Models look divided at the moment, from showing mostly missing and staying over water to some heavy showers up along coastal counties. Couldn't call it, very close.
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ECM edging the potential for heavy showers, thunderstorm activity closer to the SE, E and NE on the latest run. Still not full model consensus and a deal of unpredictability in this set up as reflected by Met Eireanns forecast : Warm again tomorrow with some spells of hazy sunshine though more cloud around generally especially in parts of the north and east. Much of the country staying dry with just isolated sharp showers breaking out. However, it is likely that heavy showers and thunderstorms will move across Ulster during the afternoon and evening. Parts of Leinster, especially near the coast, may see some showers or thunderstorms too at any stage through the day, though they may stay out at sea. Highest temperatures of 19 to 25 degrees, warmest over Munster. Winds will be light and northerly or variable in direction
MT mentions showers or thunderstorms possible by mid morning in parts of the SE, E and central counties.
No doubt big instability from the slow moving trough coinciding with peak diurnal heating, plenty of lift around Wales, very high temperatures across the water, up to about 30c near Bristol and high Dp's of around 18C near Wales and up around 16C around the SE, E.
Low level shear with convergence zones over the sea, Deep layer shear available, where showers occur could be very heavy if they come onshore, a lot of available moisture available.
The all important AROME just rolling out, where it wasn't showing shower activity it now is in the SE, E, NE, N and some moving inland possible also into central counties as MT mentioned. More to be gleaned from the models as they roll out today.
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Rain is missing Ireland on that map. Cloud and heat is the order of the day.
Wouldn't be so quick to discount rain and thunderstorm potential. The HARMONIE has upgraded since to show rainfall making its way inland and the ECM 06Z has also increased the potential again for some heavy rainfall in places and increased thunderstorm potential as has most of the European models apart from the EURO 4.
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