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Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion : Spring/Summer 2020

DOCARCH

Just starting new thread for the season(s). Nothing to report!

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JanuarySnowstor

I like her she gives an honest opinion and doesn't really care what you or me think!
Looks thundery during Wed/Thurs

Meteorite58

Currently most of the activity Monday over the UK and over waters between Ireland and the UK. How much will stray close to or in over the Irish coast ? Will have to wait and see maps closer to the time.

eon1208

Thanks Meteorite. I want Monday to be completely dry in the Laois area. Do you currently think there is a good chance of that. The rain seems to be be only just making landfall. I wonder could it likely pan out like this.

Meteorite58

The rain seems to be be only just making landfall.

Models look divided at the moment, from showing mostly missing and staying over water to some heavy showers up along coastal counties. Couldn't call it, very close.

eon1208

Thanks Meteorite. I appreciate your response. If you notice a more definite trend tomorrow and you have time, it would be helpful to know the odds.

Larbre34

eon1208 wrote: »

Thanks Meteorite. I appreciate your response. If you notice a more definite trend tomorrow and you have time, it would be helpful to know the odds.

In the nature of that weather setup, it'll be showery in the eastern half of the Country. Will the showers be significant, maybe. Will they get as far inland Laois, also maybe. Will they be sporadic, yes.

It'll be a nowcast situation, keep an eye on the rain radar.

Meteorite58

ECM edging the potential for heavy showers, thunderstorm activity closer to the SE, E and NE on the latest run. Still not full model consensus and a deal of unpredictability in this set up as reflected by Met Eireanns forecast : Warm again tomorrow with some spells of hazy sunshine though more cloud around generally especially in parts of the north and east. Much of the country staying dry with just isolated sharp showers breaking out. However, it is likely that heavy showers and thunderstorms will move across Ulster during the afternoon and evening. Parts of Leinster, especially near the coast, may see some showers or thunderstorms too at any stage through the day, though they may stay out at sea. Highest temperatures of 19 to 25 degrees, warmest over Munster. Winds will be light and northerly or variable in direction

MT mentions showers or thunderstorms possible by mid morning in parts of the SE, E and central counties.

No doubt big instability from the slow moving trough coinciding with peak diurnal heating, plenty of lift around Wales, very high temperatures across the water, up to about 30c near Bristol and high Dp's of around 18C near Wales and up around 16C around the SE, E.

Low level shear with convergence zones over the sea, Deep layer shear available, where showers occur could be very heavy if they come onshore, a lot of available moisture available.

The all important AROME just rolling out, where it wasn't showing shower activity it now is in the SE, E, NE, N and some moving inland possible also into central counties as MT mentioned. More to be gleaned from the models as they roll out today.

eon1208

Thanks Meteorite. I was feeling after Mets forecast that the odds were in favour of dry. All week they gave thunderstorms and now the storms don't make it inland except in the north. I will plan on tomorrow being dry. The odds look better today than they did all week. I know its fickle though. We'll see. Fingers crossed. Maybe the later models will give clarity. BTW what is the Arome model.

PukkaStukka

Not looking good for most of us tomorrow

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/1292437748738031617?s=19

eon1208

Rain is missing Ireland on that map. Cloud and heat is the order of the day.

Meteorite58

eon1208 wrote: »

Rain is missing Ireland on that map. Cloud and heat is the order of the day.

Wouldn't be so quick to discount rain and thunderstorm potential. The HARMONIE has upgraded since to show rainfall making its way inland and the ECM 06Z has also increased the potential again for some heavy rainfall in places and increased thunderstorm potential as has most of the European models apart from the EURO 4.

Meteorite58

https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/1292422004855967745?s=20

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/1292475193823301632?s=20

Danno

Might be a few rouge strikes in the SE tonight? Clouds just west of Cornwall look like potential.

nacho libre

eon1208 wrote: »

Rain is missing Ireland on that map. Cloud and heat is the order of the day.

Yes, it's looking good for Laois to stay dry, but in these kind of setups showers could appear anywhere in the East, so rain can't be ruled out 100 per cent, especially closer to the east and south east coast

pad199207

ECM bringing the risk even further onto the coast for thundery activity tomorrow evening

eon1208

Thanks guys. I like to study the weather. I have 4 acres of hay on the ground. It is extremely hard, sometimes almost impossible to make quality hay in Ireland. Its not ready until Tuesday. I was going to put plastic around it. More expensive that but soft clean hay is so much nicer than silage. I have decided to go for it. Its a gamble but the forecast is pointing to a dry 48 hours. Meteorite " I'm definitely not taking it for granted. Its a big gamble. Fingers crossed and I appreciate the forecast. I like to study it hay or no hay..

spookwoman

Danno wrote: »

Might be a few rouge strikes in the SE tonight? Clouds just west of Cornwall look like potential.

Looks like something bubbling up out to sea off the south

igCorcaigh

Meteorite58 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/1292422004855967745?s=20

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/1292475193823301632?s=20

If instability = warm air (wants to rise), what is lift?

[Deleted User]

eon1208 wrote: »

Thanks guys. I like to study the weather. I have 4 acres of hay on the ground. It is extremely hard, sometimes almost impossible to make quality hay in Ireland. Its not ready until Tuesday. I was going to put plastic around it. More expensive that but soft clean hay is so much nicer than silage. I have decided to go for it. Its a gamble but the forecast is pointing to a dry 48 hours. Meteorite " I'm definitely not taking it for granted. Its a big gamble. Fingers crossed and I appreciate the forecast. I like to study it hay or no hay..

Have a hay field rented out. He cut and turned 4 acres with great care. Needed another half day and had to call in the baler and wrapper before the rain came. Such was life

Oscar Bravo

No mention of thunderstorms on Dublin airport TAF,just a small chance of a heavy shower

TAF

TAF EIDW 092300Z 1000/1024 31004KT 9999 FEW012 SCT040
PROB40 TEMPO 1002/1007 4000 BR BKN008
PROB40 TEMPO 1007/1010 BKN008
BECMG 1008/1010 04007KT
PROB30 TEMPO 1015/1021 4000 SHRA BKN012 SCT040CB
BECMG 1018/1020 35005KT
PROB40 TEMPO 1021/1024 BKN012
BECMG 1022/1024 28005KT

DOCARCH

Showers gathering now off the SE coast now. Some sferics in Devon/Cornwall.

PukkaStukka

Sparking away merrily too in south Wales over the Brecon Beacons

Cooljaybeans

Looks to be heading towards wexford

highdef

Cooljaybeans wrote: »

Looks to be heading towards wexford

Looks like making landfall further north, more likely to be Wicklow and dare I say it but Dublin is at risk with the current trajectory and intensity. All subject to change, of course!

PukkaStukka

Seem to be loosing their charge crossing the sea :rolleyes:

pad199207

Status Yellow - Thunder warning for Leinster, Cavan, Monaghan and Donegal

Met Éireann Weather Warning

Scattered thunderstorms today and tonight, with lightning, hail and a risk of localised flooding.

Valid: 11:00 Monday 10/08/2020 to 08:00 Tuesday 11/08/2020

Issued: 11:00 Monday 10/08/2020

pad199207

Status Yellow - Thunder warning for Leinster, Cavan, Monaghan and Donegal

Met Ã‰ireann Weather Warning

Scattered thunderstorms today and tonight, with lightning, hail and a risk of localised flooding.

Valid: 11:00 Monday 10/08/2020 to 08:00 Tuesday 11/08/2020

Issued: 11:00 Monday 10/08/2020

typhoony

the views across the Irish sea from Howth and Dalkey could be entertaining.

the potential is there all week, weak low pressure with bands moving from SE to NW.

Danno

Quite a heavy burst of rain over WX but no sparks yet

Bejubby

All going up the Irish sea looking at sat24