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Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion : Spring/Summer 2020

DOCARCH

Just starting new thread for the season(s). Nothing to report!

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Calibos

Started to rain in Bray as the ‘tip of the spear‘ pokes us. Looks fairly ominous on the Radar. Are we sure its only the rain and not the T&L that’ll cross the Irish Sea?

pad199207

jimmynokia wrote: »

In short nothing will happen so??

Basically yeah. Can’t see anything happening.

jimmynokia

In short nothing will happen so??

pad199207 wrote: »

Status Yellow - Thunder warning for Leinster, Cavan, Monaghan and Donegal

Met Éireann Weather Warning

Scattered thunderstorms today and tonight, with lightning, hail and a risk of localised flooding.

Valid: 11:00 Monday 10/08/2020 to 08:00 Tuesday 11/08/2020

Issued: 11:00 Monday 10/08/2020

Oneiric 3

Well out of the risk zone here but sky still looks like a touch down could occur at any moment. Pleasant enough feel to the day though.

CirrusBusiness

Sparks just at Rosslare now and more just south of Cork. Looks promising for the afternoon.

Hmmm those strikes showed up on Lightningmaps .. don't see them now. Also showed a strike at Coumfea West peak.

Humberto Salazar

Losing their 'oomph' as they head into the south and southeast. Any factors that could reinvigorate them?

Bejubby

All going up the Irish sea looking at sat24

Bejubby

All going up the Irish sea looking at sat24

Danno

Quite a heavy burst of rain over WX but no sparks yet

typhoony

the views across the Irish sea from Howth and Dalkey could be entertaining.

the potential is there all week, weak low pressure with bands moving from SE to NW.

pad199207

Status Yellow - Thunder warning for Leinster, Cavan, Monaghan and Donegal

Met Ã‰ireann Weather Warning

Scattered thunderstorms today and tonight, with lightning, hail and a risk of localised flooding.

Valid: 11:00 Monday 10/08/2020 to 08:00 Tuesday 11/08/2020

Issued: 11:00 Monday 10/08/2020

pad199207

Status Yellow - Thunder warning for Leinster, Cavan, Monaghan and Donegal

Met Éireann Weather Warning

Scattered thunderstorms today and tonight, with lightning, hail and a risk of localised flooding.

Valid: 11:00 Monday 10/08/2020 to 08:00 Tuesday 11/08/2020

Issued: 11:00 Monday 10/08/2020

PukkaStukka

Seem to be loosing their charge crossing the sea :rolleyes:

highdef

Cooljaybeans wrote: »

Looks to be heading towards wexford

Looks like making landfall further north, more likely to be Wicklow and dare I say it but Dublin is at risk with the current trajectory and intensity. All subject to change, of course!

Cooljaybeans

Looks to be heading towards wexford

PukkaStukka

Sparking away merrily too in south Wales over the Brecon Beacons

DOCARCH

Showers gathering now off the SE coast now. Some sferics in Devon/Cornwall.

Oscar Bravo

No mention of thunderstorms on Dublin airport TAF,just a small chance of a heavy shower

TAF

TAF EIDW 092300Z 1000/1024 31004KT 9999 FEW012 SCT040
PROB40 TEMPO 1002/1007 4000 BR BKN008
PROB40 TEMPO 1007/1010 BKN008
BECMG 1008/1010 04007KT
PROB30 TEMPO 1015/1021 4000 SHRA BKN012 SCT040CB
BECMG 1018/1020 35005KT
PROB40 TEMPO 1021/1024 BKN012
BECMG 1022/1024 28005KT

[Deleted User]

eon1208 wrote: »

Thanks guys. I like to study the weather. I have 4 acres of hay on the ground. It is extremely hard, sometimes almost impossible to make quality hay in Ireland. Its not ready until Tuesday. I was going to put plastic around it. More expensive that but soft clean hay is so much nicer than silage. I have decided to go for it. Its a gamble but the forecast is pointing to a dry 48 hours. Meteorite " I'm definitely not taking it for granted. Its a big gamble. Fingers crossed and I appreciate the forecast. I like to study it hay or no hay..

Have a hay field rented out. He cut and turned 4 acres with great care. Needed another half day and had to call in the baler and wrapper before the rain came. Such was life

igCorcaigh

Meteorite58 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/1292422004855967745?s=20

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/1292475193823301632?s=20

If instability = warm air (wants to rise), what is lift?

spookwoman

Danno wrote: »

Might be a few rouge strikes in the SE tonight? Clouds just west of Cornwall look like potential.

Looks like something bubbling up out to sea off the south

eon1208

Thanks guys. I like to study the weather. I have 4 acres of hay on the ground. It is extremely hard, sometimes almost impossible to make quality hay in Ireland. Its not ready until Tuesday. I was going to put plastic around it. More expensive that but soft clean hay is so much nicer than silage. I have decided to go for it. Its a gamble but the forecast is pointing to a dry 48 hours. Meteorite " I'm definitely not taking it for granted. Its a big gamble. Fingers crossed and I appreciate the forecast. I like to study it hay or no hay..

pad199207

ECM bringing the risk even further onto the coast for thundery activity tomorrow evening

nacho libre

eon1208 wrote: »

Rain is missing Ireland on that map. Cloud and heat is the order of the day.

Yes, it's looking good for Laois to stay dry, but in these kind of setups showers could appear anywhere in the East, so rain can't be ruled out 100 per cent, especially closer to the east and south east coast

Danno

Might be a few rouge strikes in the SE tonight? Clouds just west of Cornwall look like potential.

Meteorite58

https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/1292422004855967745?s=20

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/1292475193823301632?s=20

Meteorite58

eon1208 wrote: »

Rain is missing Ireland on that map. Cloud and heat is the order of the day.

Wouldn't be so quick to discount rain and thunderstorm potential. The HARMONIE has upgraded since to show rainfall making its way inland and the ECM 06Z has also increased the potential again for some heavy rainfall in places and increased thunderstorm potential as has most of the European models apart from the EURO 4.

eon1208

Rain is missing Ireland on that map. Cloud and heat is the order of the day.

PukkaStukka

Not looking good for most of us tomorrow

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/1292437748738031617?s=19

eon1208

Thanks Meteorite. I was feeling after Mets forecast that the odds were in favour of dry. All week they gave thunderstorms and now the storms don't make it inland except in the north. I will plan on tomorrow being dry. The odds look better today than they did all week. I know its fickle though. We'll see. Fingers crossed. Maybe the later models will give clarity. BTW what is the Arome model.