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Storm Ellen - 19th/20th August 2020

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13567…69

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    #62
    spookwoman
    Registered Users Posts: 9,922 ✭✭✭spookwoman


    Never know until it happens


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    #63
    SleetAndSnow
    Registered Users Posts: 4,678 ✭✭✭SleetAndSnow


    spookwoman wrote: »
    Never know until it happens

    True! But just from previous storms and looking at how they turned out vs the models, and the fact that the ICON and GCM seem to be showing different then I can't see it being that strong. It could be 150 easily though at the same time!

    Regardless, tie everything down!!


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    #64
    spookwoman
    Registered Users Posts: 9,922 ✭✭✭spookwoman


    SleetAndSnow wrote: »
    True! But just from previous storms and looking at how they turned out vs the models, and the fact that the ICON and GCM seem to be showing different then I can't see it being that strong. It could be 150 easily though at the same time!

    Regardless, tie everything down!!

    Agreed some serious off the mark forecasting on previous occasions. I'll be bringing in the gas cooker just in case. Can't do without the coffee


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    #65
    irishrover99
    Registered Users Posts: 2,024 ✭✭✭irishrover99


    JanuarySnowstor wrote: »
    Guys this is unreal and come out of nowhere!!
    The conditions shown by some models warrant a red for sure in the South

    Anytime you see 100km wind or 5cm of snow you say red warning. You must work for joe.ie?


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    #66
    irishrover99
    Registered Users Posts: 2,024 ✭✭✭irishrover99


    pad199207 wrote: »
    ‪Earlier on today aparantly a woman rang the bbc and said she heard a hurricane was on the way...‬

    Probably a boards subscriber


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    #67
    sdanseo
    Registered Users Posts: 9,233 ✭✭✭sdanseo


    irishrover99 wrote: »
    Anytime you see 100km wind or 5cm of snow you say red warning. You must work for joe.ie?

    He didn't say there would certainly be a red warning, like me he said that there would be IF the conditions shown on the charts verified.

    A literal interpretation of the charts does not a sensationalist make. No different to a single run being on crack doesn't mean there's going to be another Ice Age.

    I caveat any of my more sensational sounding posts for the same reason, though it shouldn't be necessary.


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    #68
    irishrover99
    Registered Users Posts: 2,024 ✭✭✭irishrover99


    sdanseo wrote: »
    He didn't say there would be a red warning, like me he said that there would be IF the conditions shown on the charts verified.
    A literal interpretation of the charts does not a sensationalist make.
    I caveat any of my more sensational sounding posts for the same reason, though it shouldn't be necessary.

    Take a look at his/her comment history on every time the weather gets bad. It always includes a red warning mention. This is also not the first time I have mentioned this.


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    #69
    gally74
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,997 ✭✭✭gally74


    That was a fair account on rte, could we go to red ... maybe


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    #70
    sdanseo
    Registered Users Posts: 9,233 ✭✭✭sdanseo


    irishrover99 wrote: »
    Take a look at his/her comment history on every time the weather gets bad. It always includes a red warning mention. This is also not the first time I have mentioned this.

    Well aware, but it's generally linked to a chart or a situation that depicts red warning conditions.

    The conversation should be about how the shíte charts never materialise, not how someone consistently interprets them correctly!

    I realise the skill in forecasting is about the combination of matching literal interpretation of charts against probability and historical data. But it's still not incorrect to read a chart that shows 100kt winds and say "oh look, there'll be 100kt winds if that happens".


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    #71
    igCorcaigh
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 11,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    It's a weird one alright.

    Is it the ex hurricane that's providing the energy?
    I see stingjet mentioned, reminds me of Darwin.


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    #72
    KingdomRushed
    Registered Users Posts: 471 ✭✭KingdomRushed


    Had a look through all the models, quite a few scenarios showing. None of the high res models are showing 150 k winds really. The cyclone looks quite defined on some and rather messy on others. Would say that east cork, Waterford would appear to take the hardest winds on balance on the models. Quite fascinating stuff for August. Would be quite the shock to staycation people in caravans and what not if they do not take it seriously


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    #73
    SeaBreezes
    Registered Users Posts: 1,524 ✭✭✭SeaBreezes


    SleetAndSnow wrote: »
    Not a hope is there going to be 200km/h gusts. Max I am going to say is 110 at the coasts.

    Its 2020. Anything is possible.


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    #74
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,859 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ICON still not developing the initial storm like the other models but does go on to get very windy on Thurs


    anim_syl4.gif

    anim_rqm2.gif


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    #75
    leahyl
    Registered Users Posts: 14,246 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    Anyone notice that the met warning doesn’t actually mention any wind speeds...it’s just an orange warning...strange


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    #76
    pad199207
    Registered Users Posts: 7,127 ✭✭✭pad199207


    leahyl wrote: »
    Anyone notice that the met warning doesn’t actually mention any wind speeds...it’s just an orange warning...strange

    Glasnevin being careful, a lot of chopping and changing. I’d say 130kmh+ gusts plus along SW fringes may be achievable


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    #77
    munsterlegend
    Registered Users Posts: 6,143 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    leahyl wrote: »
    Anyone notice that the met warning doesn’t actually mention any wind speeds...it’s just an orange warning...strange

    Still a lot of uncertainty. Not the usual storm path either but it’s 2020 so expect the worst!


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    #78
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,859 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    leahyl wrote: »
    Anyone notice that the met warning doesn’t actually mention any wind speeds...it’s just an orange warning...strange

    Just too much uncertainty yet I reckon, Siobhan Ryan did mention that it could be high impact, potential there for something out of the ordinary especially it being in the Summer.


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    #79
    taytobreath
    Registered Users Posts: 2,773 ✭✭✭taytobreath


    Will this storm be a flooding event or a wind event?


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    #80
    leahyl
    Registered Users Posts: 14,246 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    taytobreath wrote: »
    Will this storm be a flooding event or a wind event?

    Both I’d say!


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    #81
    Shadylou
    Registered Users Posts: 252 ✭✭Shadylou


    taytobreath wrote: »
    Will this storm be a flooding event or a wind event?

    I'd imagine non event


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    #82
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 6,903 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Ireland has a vaccine.

    Storm Ellen blew the fckon virus to Timbuc Too.


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    #83
    igCorcaigh
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 11,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    Thewife wrote: »
    Is she no longer on boards ?? I’ve been thinking about her for months wondering if she is ok with all this covid but can’t seem to find her here to send a message . Does anyone know if she is ok ? Sorry for being off topic

    I am in touch with her.
    She is keeping well.


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    #84
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 6,903 ✭✭✭pauldry


    igCorcaigh wrote: »
    I am in touch with her.
    She is keeping well.

    Thank God

    Maybe thread should be called Level 2 Storm Ellen with embedded conversation about Grace


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    #85
    Doctors room ghost
    Registered Users Posts: 4,805 ✭✭✭Doctors room ghost


    igCorcaigh wrote: »
    I am in touch with her.
    She is keeping well.




    Tell her we were asking for her and we wish her well.


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    #86
    JanuarySnowstor
    Registered Users Posts: 2,899 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    The gfs is also saying no so we have 2 models not developing anything.
    Tough one to call but theven gfs is consistently saying no thanks


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    #87
    igCorcaigh
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 11,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    Doctors room ghost wrote: »
    Tell her we were asking for her and we wish her well.

    I certainly will do.
    Thanks for your concern.


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    #88
    Jpmarn
    Registered Users Posts: 1,476 ✭✭✭Jpmarn


    Storm Ellen is a merging of an Atlantic depression and the remnants of Tropical Storm Kyle. I wouldn’t be too surprised if the warnings are upgraded to status red.


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    #89
    JanuarySnowstor
    Registered Users Posts: 2,899 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    Gfs still interested in giving us something severe in the South but a day later!
    Hard to be confident about anything.
    A forecasters nightmare!
    Saying that stockpiling for a 24hour event doesn't carry much punch these days after the covid story


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    #90
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    ICON and GFS not onboard.

    12z GEM, UKMO, ECMWF, ARPEGE going for something nasty.


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    #91
    leahyl
    Registered Users Posts: 14,246 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    Sleety_Rain wrote: »
    ICON and GFS not onboard.

    12z GEM, UKMO, ECMWF, ARPEGE going for something nasty.

    Well, surely the majority rules?!


This discussion has been closed.
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