Australia

UrbanSea · 24-04-2014 12:16am

Very different trial but Master Carpenter runs again Friday

tryfix · 24-04-2014 12:22am

Slattsy wrote: »

How to rate Kingston Hill given what he did to the The Grey Gatsby in the Racing Post after TGG finishing so close to Toormore.
TGG close form with Outstrip.
Outstrip has form with Toormore.

Serious lines there. Zig zags everywhere!! And WC comes out on top in my book atm.

It's fairly safe to put a line through The Grey Gatsby's Racing Post Trophy run due to the soft ground or whatever holding him back. Otherwise you'd have to give Kingston Hill 132 for his 24lb beating of him in the RPT. Kingston Hill's OR of 120 is good enough for rating him, those handicappers know their stuff within reason, but it's soft ground form.

Slattsy · 24-04-2014 12:22am

UrbanSea wrote: »

Wouldn't expect a reasonably intelligent response anyway.

Was charged with hyperbole. No point fighting it so may aswell add to your case!

Slattsy · 24-04-2014 12:24am

Fwiw there wasn't one thing I said that could be classed as hyperbole.

Slattsy · 24-04-2014 12:24am

tryfix wrote: »

It's fairly safe to put a line through The Grey Gatsby's Racing Post Trophy run due to the soft ground or whatever holding him back. Otherwise you'd have to give Kingston Hill 132 for his 24lb beating of him in the RPT. Kingston Hill's OR of 120 is good enough for rating him, those handicappers know their stuff within reason, but it's soft ground form.

So is plenty of Toormores.

tryfix · 24-04-2014 12:37am

Slattsy wrote: »

So is plenty of Toormores.

Toormore's recent form is on good ground. His Craven win slow by 0.23 seconds. His National Stakes win fast by 0.83. His earlier wins were on slightly slower ground at slow by 3 seconds. He handles good ground well.

Kingston Hill's RPT win was slow by 8.83 seconds.

NewApproach · 24-04-2014 12:52am

Slattsy, you say you'll be interested in backing WC once bookies go NRNB. What sort of price will you be expecting?

NewApproach · 24-04-2014 12:53am

tryfix wrote: »

Toormore's recent form is on good ground. His Craven win slow by 0.23 seconds. His National Stakes win fast by 0.83. His earlier wins were on slightly slower ground at slow by 3 seconds. He handles good ground well.

Kingston Hill's RPT win was slow by 8.83 seconds.

This is not how to analyse time. Slow by 0.23 seconds compared to what exactly?

Slattsy · 24-04-2014 1:03am

NewApproach wrote: »

Slattsy, you say you'll be interested in backing WC once bookies go NRNB. What sort of price will you be expecting?

Expect it drop maybe 2 points from current odds.

tryfix · 24-04-2014 1:31am

NewApproach wrote: »

This is not how to analyse time. Slow by 0.23 seconds compared to what exactly?

Standard time for the distance of a race at that track. I think it's based on something like the time a 100 rated 3yo should take to run the distance carrying 9 stone on good ground or something similar. Good ground naturally produces faster run races than soft ground.

Toormore's National Stakes win was faster than standard, it was one of only 2 races that day at the Curragh that were faster than standard and it was the fastest than standard race that day. So given that he was a 2yo and carrying 9 stone 3lb it was a pretty good performance on the clock.

sting60 · 24-04-2014 9:43am

Short and sweet Toormore has to find 3lb to beat Kingman.

Gringo180 · 24-04-2014 1:25pm

sting60 wrote: »

Short and sweet Toormore has to find 3lb to beat Kingman.

Kingman has more scope in him, a step up to a mile will be right up his street too.

faoile@n · 24-04-2014 1:38pm

Gringo180 wrote: »

Kingman ... a step up to a mile will be right up his street too.

What exactly are you basing this on?

Being out of Invincible Spirit a mile is by no way guaranteed.

The likely fast ground goes against him too but I'm sure Newmarket will have the track well watered to ensure the British star shows up :rolleyes:

Gringo180 · 24-04-2014 1:51pm

faoile@n wrote: »

What exactly are you basing this on?

Based on watching his races. He's won going away over 7f as a 2 year old, obviously he is alot more stronger as a 3 year old. No doubt about he will get the mile and relish it.

sting60 · 24-04-2014 2:24pm

faoile@n wrote: »

What exactly are you basing this on?

Being out of Invincible Spirit a mile is by no way guaranteed.

The likely fast ground goes against him too but I'm sure Newmarket will have the track well watered to ensure the British star shows up :rolleyes:

Imo breeding should not be any problem as Invinciple Spirit has thrown numerous horses to stay beyond 1m including nh winners.The dam Zenda by Zarmindar and he was responsible for Zarkava and countless others who stayed beyond a mile.Looking at the type of ground Invincible Spirit progeny excel 9% soft and 16% firm.I heard the comments from Gosden and I looked at his action time/time again and I believe he will be better on good ground and a mile will be no problem based on breeding and his win over the stiff 7f at Sandown as a 2yr old.

tryfix · 24-04-2014 4:57pm

sting60 wrote: »

Imo breeding should not be any problem as Invinciple Spirit has thrown numerous horses to stay beyond 1m including nh winners.The dam Zenda by Zarmindar and he was responsible for Zarkava and countless others who stayed beyond a mile.Looking at the type of ground Invincible Spirit progeny excel 9% soft and 16% firm.I heard the comments from Gosden and I looked at his action time/time again and I believe he will be better on good ground and a mile will be no problem based on breeding and his win over the stiff 7f at Sandown as a 2yr old.

He's certainly from an interesting family. His Dam who's more stoutly bred than him won the French Guineas but didn't win over any further and his half brother Remote is also a lot more stoutly bred than him, by Dansili he was a decent 3yo last year who won his maiden at 10f and went back for a 6l win over a mile before winning a GP3 at Ascot over 10f.

There's lots of speed in Kingman's pedigree and performances, enough to see him go Sprinting if he flopped in the Guineas. I would think it's the worry of another injury rather than performance that has Gosden worried about firm ground.

jimjamcos · 24-04-2014 7:10pm

Gosden has no worries about Kingman not handling firm. His only worry is that firm would increase the likelihood of injury reoccurring. He'll run.

sting60 · 24-04-2014 7:13pm

tryfix wrote: »

He's certainly from an interesting family. His Dam who's more stoutly bred than him won the French Guineas but didn't win over any further and his half brother Remote is also a lot more stoutly bred than him, by Dansili he was a decent 3yo last year who won his maiden at 10f and went back for a 6l win over a mile before winning a GP3 at Ascot over 10f.

There's lots of speed in Kingman's pedigree and performances, enough to see him go Sprinting if he flopped in the Guineas. I would think it's the worry of another injury rather than performance that has Gosden worried about firm ground.

Can I correct a very good post with "there is super speed in Kingmans pedigree".My take he has really progressed from 2 to 3 and ratings suggest that.If correct then his 7f run at Sandown [as a 2yr old]is serious indication that this is a real real good horse over a mile.I think this horse is [3lbs at least] better than anything we have seen as 3yr olds.This could Imo be a superstar over a mile but will not stay a Derby trip,I think.

Gringo180 · 24-04-2014 7:29pm

Mark my words this Kingman will get the mile and will win cosily by 2+ Lengths, I think he will get the 10f myself, a real top class prospect to look forward to this year.

NewApproach · 24-04-2014 7:37pm

jimjamcos wrote: »

Gosden has no worries about Kingman not handling firm. His only worry is that firm would increase the likelihood of injury reoccurring. He'll run.

Its his conformation which is the worry rather than pedigree with a view to him performing and withstanding racing on fast ground.

sting60 · 24-04-2014 8:19pm

Tagrooda In a BOBIS race she looks like a filly/mare who wants 3m over sticks Imo.

NewApproach · 24-04-2014 9:26pm

sting60 wrote: »

Tagrooda In a BOBIS race she looks like a filly/mare who wants 3m over sticks Imo.

:eek:

sting60 · 24-04-2014 9:28pm

NewApproach wrote: »

:eek:

Obviously im posting ****e but she needs a real distance on soft.

NewApproach · 24-04-2014 9:59pm

sting60 wrote: »

Obviously im posting ****e but she needs a real distance on soft.

She's going to follow Bracelet home in the Oaks.

sting60 · 24-04-2014 10:05pm

NewApproach wrote: »

She's going to follow Bracelet home in the Oaks.

The Best filly I have seen is Welds and she is brilliant on firm nothing will beat her on good to firm /firm.

UrbanSea · 24-04-2014 10:09pm

sting60 wrote: »

The Best filly I have seen is Welds and she is brilliant on firm nothing will beat her on good to firm /firm.

Did you see the Aga filly today hardly will leave France though

sting60 · 24-04-2014 10:17pm

UrbanSea wrote: »

Did you see the Aga filly today hardly will leave France though

Urban read what I say.This is best filly I have ever seen but she needs her ground.She needs rock hard ground[best tip ever if she gets her ground].

Gringo180 · 24-04-2014 10:21pm

sting60 wrote: »

Urban read what I say.This is best filly I have ever seen but she needs her ground.She needs rock hard ground[best tip ever if she gets her ground].

Treve says hello :pac:

sting60 · 24-04-2014 10:29pm

Gringo180 wrote: »

Treve says hello :pac:

Sorry talking abo
ut young horses was hoping that was understood.

tryfix · 24-04-2014 11:48pm

sting60 wrote: »

The Best filly I have seen is Welds and she is brilliant on firm nothing will beat her on good to firm /firm.

Who?

UrbanSea · 25-04-2014 8:00am

tryfix wrote: »

Who?

I take it he means the Aga filly that won by over 20 lengths on debut at Cork can't recall her name

NewApproach · 25-04-2014 3:06pm

UrbanSea wrote: »

I take it he means the Aga filly that won by over 20 lengths on debut at Cork can't recall her name

She's interesting but the form isn't worth the paper it's written on surely?

tryfix · 25-04-2014 3:10pm

UrbanSea wrote: »

I take it he means the Aga filly that won by over 20 lengths on debut at Cork can't recall her name

Ebeyina?

Well I do like a beautifully bred 23L winner as a classic prospect, but I don't like Dermot Weld as a trainer to deliver a classic performance from such a horse when the going gets tough. Maybe once, but Weld and Classic prospects that flop. Ugh..

Gringo180 · 25-04-2014 10:30pm

Is the Aga Khan still sending horses to Oxx or is it just Weld and Halford now?

sting60 · 27-04-2014 1:14pm

tryfix wrote: »

Who?

Balansiya.

UrbanSea · 28-04-2014 4:11pm

Australia and War Command to face Kingman. Exciting race

Slattsy · 28-04-2014 4:27pm

UrbanSea wrote: »

Australia and War Command to face Kingman. Exciting race

Great race if Kingman turns up.
I'll imagine they'll water the ground sufficiently so Josden runs him.

NewApproach · 28-04-2014 5:20pm

I just don't get the hype surrounding War Command, he seems to be everyone's 'wiseguy' horse of the race. OK he might be one or two points too big but certainly no more than that. I assume I'll lay him if he goes sub 10/1.

As an aside it's looking like I will have a massively lopsided book on this race. I'm on both Kingman and Toormore antepost and will be looking to heavily lay Australia. No hiding places!!

chinguetti · 28-04-2014 7:22pm

If Ballydoyle are really running War Command on Saturday and not waiting for France, you can assume that Australia isn't as good as they think he is. I suppose we'll know more on Thursday when they have to make a decision but they might change their mind again by then.

sting60 · 28-04-2014 10:44pm

NewApproach wrote: »

I just don't get the hype surrounding War Command, he seems to be everyone's 'wiseguy' horse of the race. OK he might be one or two points too big but certainly no more than that. I assume I'll lay him if he goes sub 10/1.

As an aside it's looking like I will have a massively lopsided book on this race. I'm on both Kingman and Toormore antepost and will be looking to heavily lay Australia. No hiding places!!

Lay a 9/1 shot wow.Times have changed in lay world .

NewApproach · 28-04-2014 10:50pm

sting60 wrote: »

Lay a 9/1 shot wow.Times have changed in lay world .

What's the issue? I lay what I perceive to be underpriced and back what I perceive to be overpriced. Stakes involved obviously depend on many factors, including the prices of the selections in question. This approach has served me very well for quite a while...

Perhaps you would like to offer some advice? I suppose anything over 7/1 must be backed each way? Or is it the favourites you prefer?

tryfix · 28-04-2014 11:01pm

chinguetti wrote: »

If Ballydoyle are really running War Command on Saturday and not waiting for France, you can assume that Australia isn't as good as they think he is. I suppose we'll know more on Thursday when they have to make a decision but they might change their mind again by then.

Not necessarily. They ran Hawk Wing and Rock Of Gibraltar against each other in the 2,000 guineas and Hawk Wing and High Chaparral against each other in the Derby.

O'Brien seems to have gone off the French Guineas a bit.

sting60 · 28-04-2014 11:04pm

NewApproach wrote: »

What's the issue? I lay what I perceive to be underpriced and back what I perceive to be overpriced. Stakes involved obviously depend on many factors, including the prices of the selections in question. This approach has served me very well for quite a while...

Perhaps you would like to offer some advice? I suppose anything over 7/1 must be backed each way? Or is it the favourites you prefer?

No you are fine.Christ ull make a fortune when you do give me a bell how you do it.Not good at math IMO.

chinguetti · 28-04-2014 11:08pm

tryfix wrote: »

Not necessarily. They ran Hawk Wing and Rock Of Gibraltar against each other in the 2,000 guineas and Hawk Wing and High Chaparral against each other in the Derby.

That's true and I'm sure their more than that example but after all their talk of Australia for Newmarket and WC only kept in the race in case anything went wrong, it seems odd that they change their minds within a few days and run them both. Remember, they're looking at future stallions here that would like a classic against their names.

If they both run, one can't get have a classic after its name; if they run in separate, they may have two separate classic winners. Doubtful that Australia will go to the Curragh for the Guineas so that one maybe for WC though in time.

tryfix · 28-04-2014 11:32pm

chinguetti wrote: »

That's true and I'm sure their more than that example but after all their talk of Australia for Newmarket and WC only kept in the race in case anything went wrong, it seems odd that they change their minds within a few days and run them both. Remember, they're looking at future stallions here that would like a classic against their names.

If they both run, one can't get have a classic after its name; if they run in separate, they may have two separate classic winners. Doubtful that Australia will go to the Curragh for the Guineas so that one maybe for WC though in time.

It's a confusing race, Australia is a Derby horse who might be good enough to win a moderate Guineas, this does not look like a moderate Guineas. So he'd have to be almost the best O'Brien has trained to win from such a quality field. War Command doesn't appeal as superstar either.

I'll stick with Toormore for a bit of value against all the hype...

sting60 · 28-04-2014 11:47pm

One horse race if he turns up best horse by miles.

kfallon · 29-04-2014 12:50pm

I would imagine Australia will be further 'forward' than War Command for Saturday. Can see War Command running a nice race and then be primed for The Curragh. He can then go down the mile route for the rest of the season. Bit like Camelot/Power 2 years ago.

Australia will definitely be only running once over a mile this season I would imagine.

diomed · 03-05-2014 1:20pm

I have doubts about Australia.

Australia's has run only three times, only once in a Group race, a G3 with three opponents.
In his G3 race at Leopardstown he beat Free Eagle who was confirming form with Kingfisher (5/5; 5/8 in Group company since) and Wexford Town (unraced since), two horses Free Eagle beat in his previous race. Imo it was a match race between Australia and Free Eagle.

Australia's maiden win at The Curragh:
2nd Carla Bianca, next ran 4th in G1 Moyglare, and 3rd of 8 in a 2014 maiden.
3rd Juniper Tree, next race was 4th in a Navan maiden.
4th Gorteo, 2nd in two maidens since.
5th Kerkeni, 2nd in two maidens, then a maiden win in 2014.
6th Billboard won a Roscommon maiden since.
The horses coming out of that race have not impressed.

Australia's parents, Galileo and Ouija have (I think) seven Group wins each. All of those Group wins were at 1 mile, 2 furlongs or 1 mile, 4 furlongs.
(I am including Galileo's Ballysax listed win as a Group win, and Ouija Board's 1m 1f 192y Nassau Stakes as 1m 2f).
You will find mile Group winners in Australia's grandparents: Sadler's Wells 2x8f; 3x10f: and Cape Cross 4 x 8f. The other two grandparents: Urban Sea 3x10f; 1x12f: Selection Board unraced?
The probabilities are Australia is a 1m2f+ horse.

A careful reading of Australia's 2yo "in running" comments suggests he needs longer distances.
His 7f first race where he finished second beaten a neck: "stayed on well under pressure inside final furlong, just held, never nearer"
His 7f second race won by 3/4l: "advantage reduced inside final furlong but kept on well"
His 8f final race: " led over 1f out and soon quickened clear, impressive"

It looks to me like 7f was too short for him as a 2yo. When he moved to 8f he gave a better impression (against imo poor horses).
His reputation rests on his beating of Free Eagle in a moderate time.

But I have the humble pie ready.

BumperD · 03-05-2014 1:33pm

diomed wrote: »

I have doubts about Australia.

Australia's has run only three times, only once in a Group race, a G3 with three opponents.
In his G3 race at Leopardstown he beat Free Eagle who was confirming form with Kingfisher (5/5; 5/8 in Group company since) and Wexford Town (unraced since), two horses Free Eagle beat in his previous race. Imo it was a match race between Australia and Free Eagle.

Australia's maiden win at The Curragh:
2nd Carla Bianca, next ran 4th in G1 Moyglare, and 3rd of 8 in a 2014 maiden.
3rd Juniper Tree, next race was 4th in a Navan maiden.
4th Gorteo, 2nd in two maidens since.
5th Kerkeni, 2nd in two maidens, then a maiden win in 2014.
6th Billboard won a Roscommon maiden since.
The horses coming out of that race have not impressed.

Australia's parents, Galileo and Ouija have (I think) seven Group wins each. All of those Group wins were at 1 mile, 2 furlongs or 1 mile, 4 furlongs.
(I am including Galileo's Ballysax listed win as a Group win, and Ouija Board's 1m 1f 192y Nassau Stakes as 1m 2f).
You will find mile Group winners in Australia's grandparents: Sadler's Wells 2x8f; 3x10f: and Cape Cross 4 x 8f. The other two grandparents: Urban Sea 3x10f; 1x12f: Selection Board unraced?
The probabilities are Australia is a 1m2f+ horse.

A careful reading of Australia's 2yo "in running" comments suggests he needs longer distances.
His 7f first race where he finished second beaten a neck: "stayed on well under pressure inside final furlong, just held, never nearer"
His 7f second race won by 3/4l: "advantage reduced inside final furlong but kept on well"
His 8f final race: " led over 1f out and soon quickened clear, impressive"

It looks to me like 7f was too short for him as a 2yo. When he moved to 8f he gave a better impression (against imo poor horses).
His reputation rests on his beating of Free Eagle in a moderate time.

But I have the humble pie ready.

Very good analysis. I have him as a Derby horse rather than a miler. We'll know for sure at about 3:52pm

Johner · 03-05-2014 1:34pm

Australia can lick the back of my sack.

Australia

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