Should farmers start planning for Brexit?

In lots of ways there’s a huge similarity to the Y2K hype going on.

Nobody knows what is going to happen so people are rolling out all sorts of doomsday scenarios.

The one thing beauracrats are great for is holding out right to the end and then a fudge is rolled out that makes everyone look like they achieved what they wanted while only making small concessions to the other side.

The U.K. will be grand either way, chances the average joe soap on the street will see no deference either way.

Farmers planning for Brexit is like saying we should have been planning for the trade war between USA and Turkey that is having such a serious effect on cattle at the moment, there is so little you can do.

If nothing else the Brits can just do what USA and EU did during the current recession and quantitative ease their way out of any trouble, yes it’s kicking the can down the road, but to a lesser or greater extent that’s what all large western nations do. Issue a 30-40 year bond in the hopes it will be sorted by then, and if not issue another bigger bond to cover the house again.

I think for our own perspective there will be export refunds or intervention measures to cover us to some extent.

Im shocked there has been no work in developing more deep sea port capacity in either Rosslare or Cork, it’s something I think the current government are being complacent on. We should have shelved all but essential infrastructure development and started a plan to make ourselves more resilient on getting goods in and out without the U.K., as it stands it’s a huge bargaining chip for the U.K. and even the EU should be pushing us to get alternative plans in place. Maybe we have the capacity but I’ve read that we would need to double at least our shipping capacity.

_Brian wrote: »

In lots of ways there’s a huge similarity to the Y2K hype going on.

Nobody knows what is going to happen so people are rolling out all sorts of doomsday scenarios.

The one thing beauracrats are great for is holding out right to the end and then a fudge is rolled out that makes everyone look like they achieved what they wanted while only making small concessions to the other side.

The U.K. will be grand either way, chances the average joe soap on the street will see no deference either way.

Farmers planning for Brexit is like saying we should have been planning for the trade war between USA and Turkey that is having such a serious effect on cattle at the moment, there is so little you can do.

If nothing else the Brits can just do what USA and EU did during the current recession and quantitative ease their way out of any trouble, yes it’s kicking the can down the road, but to a lesser or greater extent that’s what all large western nations do. Issue a 30-40 year bond in the hopes it will be sorted by then, and if not issue another bigger bond to cover the house again.

I think for our own perspective there will be export refunds or intervention measures to cover us to some extent.

Im shocked there has been no work in developing more deep sea port capacity in either Rosslare or Cork, it’s something I think the current government are being complacent on. We should have shelved all but essential infrastructure development and started a plan to make ourselves more resilient on getting goods in and out without the U.K., as it stands it’s a huge bargaining chip for the U.K. and even the EU should be pushing us to get alternative plans in place. Maybe we have the capacity but I’ve read that we would need to double at least our shipping capacity.

I am not sure if there can be a fudge. The British want total access to the EU but ha ve there own rules and standards. They talk about a free trade deal like Canada but Canada cannot provide services into the EU this would end Londan as the main European Fiancial hub. THe Eu know has to be willing yo accept a hit on its economy because if it lets the UK make its own rules and standards it will have to give Norway and Switerland the same deal who both accept European rules and free travel arrangements.

On Irish ports we have plenty of deep port access. At present the access corrodor to Foynes is going to planning stage. Foynes is the deepest port in Europe after Amsterdam as far as I know. It will cost very little to develop it after the road is build.

Bass Reeves wrote: »

I am not sure if there can be a fudge. The British want total access to the EU but ha ve there own rules and standards. They talk about a free trade deal like Canada but Canada cannot provide services into the EU this would end Londan as the main European Fiancial hub. THe Eu know has to be willing yo accept a hit on its economy because if it lets the UK make its own rules and standards it will have to give Norway and Switerland the same deal who both accept European rules and free travel arrangements.

On Irish ports we have plenty of deep port access. At present the access corrodor to Foynes is going to planning stage. Foynes is the deepest port in Europe after Amsterdam as far as I know. It will cost very little to develop it after the road is build.

A good few years ago ed Walsh ex ul president suggedted this, Rotterdam is full to the gills. Only some minor road improvements and the you have access to the motorway. 2 hrs to Dublin. Only pity is we didn’t do it 20 years ago

My reading is that the leave supporters are much like Trump supporters, they have nothing to lose.
The media is calling for remain as it is controlled by the middle and upper classes. They have loads to lose.
If you have ever been to Sunderland or Stoke (I have relations that I visit annually at least in both) it would be fairly apparent why they voted to leave. They are still unsure as to what will happen but they know it can't be much worse than what has happened to their areas over the last 40 years.
Much like the rust belt in the US.

greenfield21 wrote: »

I would love to see another vote, just to see the remainers faces when Britain votes to leave again. Its mad that support is still only in the fifties for remain with all the media hatred for leave. Look how well the British economy is doing and they would probably still leave now, with a little help from farage and Boris like last time I have no doubt leave would win again. Those two could be past it though.

Grueller wrote: »

My reading is that the leave supporters are much like Trump supporters, they have nothing to lose.
The media is calling for remain as it is controlled by the middle and upper classes. They have loads to lose.
If you have ever been to Sunderland or Stoke (I have relations that I visit annually at least in both) it would be fairly apparent why they voted to leave. They are still unsure as to what will happen but they know it can't be much worse than what has happened to their areas over the last 40 years.
Much like the rust belt in the US.

British media is mostly pro leave.You should just listen to Sky and the BBC in general. Rupert Murdock owns most of the British media and is a Bresiteer. Only 2-3 British newspapers are pro remain only one redtop is pro remain. I think too many mix up Irish coverage with UK coverage

alps wrote: »

A look at how borders operate just coming in prime time...

Remember them?

Trying to find parking up the hill at Newry. Waiting for hours at Begans Carrickarnon and getting given out too by C&E cause there was staples in the paperwork instead of pins.

Delivering bottles of spirits and crates of beer at Christmas to keep the powers that be sweet

_Brian wrote: »

In lots of ways there’s a huge similarity to the Y2K hype going on.

Nobody knows what is going to happen so people are rolling out all sorts of doomsday scenarios.

The one thing beauracrats are great for is holding out right to the end and then a fudge is rolled out that makes everyone look like they achieved what they wanted while only making small concessions to the other side.

The U.K. will be grand either way, chances the average joe soap on the street will see no deference either way.

Farmers planning for Brexit is like saying we should have been planning for the trade war between USA and Turkey that is having such a serious effect on cattle at the moment, there is so little you can do.

If nothing else the Brits can just do what USA and EU did during the current recession and quantitative ease their way out of any trouble, yes it’s kicking the can down the road, but to a lesser or greater extent that’s what all large western nations do. Issue a 30-40 year bond in the hopes it will be sorted by then, and if not issue another bigger bond to cover the house again.

I think for our own perspective there will be export refunds or intervention measures to cover us to some extent.

Im shocked there has been no work in developing more deep sea port capacity in either Rosslare or Cork, it’s something I think the current government are being complacent on. We should have shelved all but essential infrastructure development and started a plan to make ourselves more resilient on getting goods in and out without the U.K., as it stands it’s a huge bargaining chip for the U.K. and even the EU should be pushing us to get alternative plans in place. Maybe we have the capacity but I’ve read that we would need to double at least our shipping capacity.

Totally agree on the fudge outcome Brian.
Both sides have too much to lose not to agree.
There will be some fancy new name or Acronym invented for it and the Brits will tell their people its Brexit, and the EU will tell us its not Brexit!
At least I hope that's what they have the cop-on to do.
Otherwise it's very bad news for Ireland, but as you say - just as easy for the Irish farmer to plan for as the Y2K bug

Dickie10 wrote: »

what do people think of the sheep industry and lamb trade in a post hard Brexit era?

there'll be no live imports which will be a +
uk exports to the continent will take a hit +
sterling is likely to dive -
there are other side effects but they'd be the main ones

Dickie10 wrote: »

so thats sounds quite positive on the whole. does that mean that northern lambs cant come to the republic to be slaughtered? that would take some amount of lambs out of the system

it depends on how big those +/- are.

the hard border means there'll be paperwork, delays and duties for it to be done right...but when did those in bandit country ever let that stop them

Dickie10 wrote: »

would they really go out of business? really the diffference between beef and sheep is that quantity and supply is too much in beef and there isnt a supply or oversupply in sheep?

i don't think he means one of the companies will shutdown, more like one of the factories will close eg icm navan with camolin staying open

maybe they would also have to pay more for them

Shauny2010 wrote: »

Seems to be a lot of people who think Brexit is next March. Brexit begins next March but nothing changes on the day, theirs a 2 year transition period after that so even in a no deal Brexit their will be still plenty time to do deals

after 11pm 29th march the uk will no longer be an EU member.

IF an agreement is reached there will be a 2 year transition.

at the minute the deadline for agreement is the middle of December.

it all depends on how big that if is