Should farmers start planning for Brexit?

keepalive213

I don't think brexit will happen, I've thought that since the snap election of 2017.
Europe is trying to make an example of UK to stop other countries following suit, UK is being typically arrogant and pompous.
Brexit is a good bargaining tool for tanglers / dealers
"ah sure this brexit thing the price of cattle is gone to ****"

Bass Reeves

keepalive213 wrote: »

I don't think brexit will happen, I've thought that since the snap election of 2017.
Europe is trying to make an example of UK to stop other countries following suit, UK is being typically arrogant and pompous.
Brexit is a good bargaining tool for tanglers / dealers
"ah sure this brexit thing the price of cattle is gone to ****"

I would not be so sure. It seems that if you talk to Irish politicians most now seems to be of the opinion that it will happen. The British politicians have walked themselves up the aisle without a groom waiting for them. Brexit was a political idea without a plan.

Having said that the British expected everybody else to blink and that was not going to happen but the problem is that they are gone so far they cannot walk with there electors. Remember the British opposition is pro Brexit as well so a change in government will not mean a change in policy. I taught like you up to recently but now I am much more negative unless there is a massive change in the British position and that is virtually politically impossible with a split Tory party and an opposition that is pro Brexit as well

What is effecting cattle prices is that costs are rising exponentially and a massive fodder shortage. Any surplus fodder is in the west which has not a tradition of selling extra bales. It would be cost prohibitive anyway in a small margin business. While there is second cut being made it is unlikly to fill the gap.

Mooooo

K.G. wrote: »

Some good heads around here.whats a good hedge in the situation we are in now

The issue I guess is the unknown. If we knew or
Had an idea of what way it would effect us we could do something about it or try to. Having a buffer for low prices would be one way but doing it tax efficiently is another thing. Perhaps income averaging may help or reducing costs wherever that can be done

kowtow

K.G. wrote: »

Some good heads around here.whats a good hedge in the situation we are in now

land north of the border.

keepalive213

Bass Reeves wrote: »

I would not be so sure. It seems that if you talk to Irish politicians most now seems to be of the opinion that it will happen.

Yeah I personally wouldn't pay much heed to most Irish politicians or what they might say. Half the time sucking up to Europe and the other half to the UK establishment, shower of clowns not a true leader among them.
Even if we had a comprehensive agreement right now it's too late to have it all in place by March.
I predict another referendum in UK post deadline and a No vote, I hope for all European peoples sake that I'm correct.

Say my name

K.G. wrote: »

Some good heads around here.whats a good hedge in the situation we are in now

Try and get your electricity usage as low as you can now when you have the chance. Take any energy saving grants available.
Our electricity supply is interconnected to Britain and this Celtic interconnector between ireland and France completion date is not till 2025. With the shelving of the proposed high powered cables and pylons due to local opposition between Great Island and Dublin it may not go ahead at all.

charolais0153

kowtow wrote: »

land north of the border.

Good shout. Woulf it be exporting as such if moving cattle from one side of borser to the other?

kowtow

charolais0153 wrote: »

Good shout. Woulf it be exporting as such if moving cattle from one side of borser to the other?

I was thinking more of after a bad brexit.

If UK does badly - land *might* fall in price. NI land *might* fall faster
If UK recovers, does well out of brexit, NI recovers with it
If UK never recovers (unlikely IMO) stronger chance of UI - NI ultimately recovers compared to South

Tongue in cheek suggestion really, land too expensive everywhere.

greenfield21

Yeah good thinking. if you're mad for dairying why not buy land in the north and move the cows up there when Irish dairy collapses. Can't understand why everyone keeps talking about beef, most of our dairy food services sector relys on the Brits. They don't seem to buying much of our milk powder anyway. Its all the high value products.

_Brian

jntsnk wrote: »

But I’m wordering has Britain got a plan B for importing meat or other food for that matter. Have they been in talks with countries outside of the EU. I don’t think so. Is it all a bluff.
So the market will still be there only thing are the WTO charges applying then.
And you have a lot of Irish factories with British slaughtering plants. Could they bring in Irish sides and process the meat , label it as British then.

Surely they can access plenty of Canadian, American, Brazilian and Argentine meat, I’d say they would have plenty of options. The last thing we should be thinking is that they have no other options.

Bass Reeves

greenfield21 wrote: »

Yeah good thinking. if you're mad for dairying why not buy land in the north and move the cows up there when Irish dairy collapses. Can't understand why everyone keeps talking about beef, most of our dairy food services sector relys on the Brits. They don't seem to buying much of our milk powder anyway. Its all the high value products.

There is no levy/duty on Milk products AFAIK so milk will not be under the same pressure

charolais0153

kowtow wrote: »

I was thinking more of after a bad brexit.

If UK does badly - land *might* fall in price. NI land *might* fall faster
If UK recovers, does well out of brexit, NI recovers with it
If UK never recovers (unlikely IMO) stronger chance of UI - NI ultimately recovers compared to South

Tongue in cheek suggestion really, land too expensive everywhere.

Farmers in uk are expecting sheep to collapse and cattle to rise so if you had a herd number in ni you coyld kill them up there even though they were reared in ireland....

TooOldBoots

I think the UK will end up with no deal. The EU has already indicated that it will support Ireland and its agri and food industry for a transition period of a few years. Support could be in the form of export refunds to cover UK tarifs.
The whole thing could get very nasty yet with the UK not allowing free movement of goods through the UK from Ireland onto Europe.
The car industry in the UK along with its finance center in london will at that stage be RIP.
What will happen to all those trainloads of workers from Belfast into Dublin everyday is another question. I think once the people of NI loose their freedom to work in the EU they will have to make choose if they still want to be part of the UK.

einn32

What are we supposed to plan for?? Nobody in the UK has a clue how to cut ties with the EU. Plus the EU are not making it easy making it a huge undertaking. We just won't know the issues until the dust settles. We can speculate alright and gamble!

The UK puts a lot of money into the EU pot, which has to hurt when it's removed. Subsidies are more important to farming in Ireland then prices received. A strict border would surely hurt Ireland.

Loves_lorries

TooOldBoots wrote: »

I think the UK will end up with no deal. The EU has already indicated that it will support Ireland and its agri and food industry for a transition period of a few years. Support could be in the form of export refunds to cover UK tarifs.
The whole thing could get very nasty yet with the UK not allowing free movement of goods through the UK from Ireland onto Europe.
The car industry in the UK along with its finance center in london will at that stage be RIP.
What will happen to all those trainloads of workers from Belfast into Dublin everyday is another question. I think once the people of NI loose their freedom to work in the EU they will have to make choose if they still want to be part of the UK.

London won't see that much of a fall off in finance, its been the premiere financial capital for centuries now.

Switzerland is a major financial hub too and its not in the EU.

TooOldBoots

Loves_lorries wrote: »

London won't see that much of a fall off in finance, its been the premiere financial capital for centuries now.

Switzerland is a major financial hub too and its not in the EU.

Switzerland is fully aligned with the EU rules, regulations and customs area. The UK is looking to be out of these. The exodus out of London by financial firms has started and will happen in a big way if a no deal brexit happens.
The whole thing is madness on their behalf. They basically think they can have open trade without the rules. Theirs no way that can happen.

Expect the Car manufacturers to start reducing output from December on. Once Toyota, Nissan and a few more issue protective notice to the workers you'll see a big change in attitude with panic stations in full mode

kowtow

TooOldBoots wrote: »

Switzerland is fully aligned with the EU rules, regulations and customs area. The UK is looking to be out of these. The exodus out of London by financial firms has started and will happen in a big way if a no deal brexit happens.
The whole thing is madness on their behalf. They basically think they can have open trade without the rules. Theirs no way that can happen.

Expect the Car manufacturers to start reducing output from December on. Once Toyota, Nissan and a few more issue protective notice to the workers you'll see a big change in attitude with panic stations in full mode

I wouldn't count on the UK financial services market being devastated.

Santander (a Spanish bank) put £150 million and 5,000 jobs into the UK last week.

Watch what they do, not what they say.

There's a lot of fake news doing the rounds!

K.G.

kowtow wrote: »

land north of the border.

Thats a little dramatic. I was thinking more in terms of inputs or cash.there only seems to be demand for short keep cattle due to silage but should people be buying longer keep to avoid selling at an uncertain time in the spring

kowtow

K.G. wrote: »

Thats a little dramatic. I was thinking more in terms of inputs or cash.there only seems to be demand for short keep cattle due to silage but should people be buying longer keep to avoid selling at an uncertain time in the spring

Very, very difficult to say.

This is our first year doing calf to beef alongside dairy, and on expensive rented ground at that. It would be difficult to generate a bigger disaster financially speaking (given the weather) if we had tried.

If there is a happy Brexit deal (and one has to presume that beyond all the bluster there is some willingness on both sides to do a deal..) then what is the chance of a strong spike in the price of cattle come the Spring?

memorystick

I think you're right. Beef could peak in February.

TooOldBoots

kowtow wrote: »

I wouldn't count on the UK financial services market being devastated.

Santander (a Spanish bank) put £150 million and 5,000 jobs into the UK last week.

Watch what they do, not what they say.

There's a lot of fake news doing the rounds!

Thats a peanuts amount of money in banking terms. Plus you failed to mention all the caveats with the deal.
Frankfurt financial center will be the biggest winner from this. Don't take the Germans for fools, they know exactly what they are doing. The Irish will have very little say at the end of the day

Timmaay

greenfield21 wrote: »

Yeah good thinking. if you're mad for dairying why not buy land in the north and move the cows up there when Irish dairy collapses. Can't understand why everyone keeps talking about beef, most of our dairy food services sector relys on the Brits. They don't seem to buying much of our milk powder anyway. Its all the high value products.

If your mad for dairying and are flexible about where to start then heading out west, Roscommon/sligo etc I think would be a good bet, plenty of land in lower demand that the traditional dairy/tillage strongholds of munster/Leinster, and assuming they are right about climate change down that way will grow plenty of grass moving forward.

charolais0153

Timmaay wrote: »

If your mad for dairying and are flexible about where to start then heading out west, Roscommon/sligo etc I think would be a good bet, plenty of land in lower demand that the traditional dairy/tillage strongholds of munster/Leinster, and assuming they are right about climate change down that way will grow plenty of grass moving forward.

Ye have a headstart of 2 weeks in terms of growth. In feb this year, the difference between sourh galway and north tipp was staggering.

Willfarman

Lab our party wants to go back to the ballot.. there won’t be much of an exit at I think now. A half arsed one at worst.

Timmaay

charolais0153 wrote: »

Ye have a headstart of 2 weeks in terms of growth. In feb this year, the difference between sourh galway and north tipp was staggering.

Fully agreed, even earlier here in the south east, however in years like this we lost 4 or 5times the amount over the drought. Please God this year is a complete exception obviously ha, but if it's anything a sign of what's to come I still think the more inland west areas are a very viable area of growth for grass based dairying.

Say my name

Timmaay wrote: »

Fully agreed, even earlier here in the south east, however in years like this we lost 4 or 5times the amount over the drought. Please God this year is a complete exception obviously ha, but if it's anything a sign of what's to come I still think the more inland west areas are a very viable area of growth for grass based dairying.

From what I hear you're too late on that idea. Some big dairy farms already recently set up in that area from southeast ex pats.
It's Ireland's answer to New Zealand's south island.

K.G.

How much and which of our main inputs will come through uk or british businesses

ganmo

K.G. wrote: »

How much and which of our main inputs will come through uk or british businesses

A lot of the medications and doses.
Chanelle are the only ones I’m sure are manufacturing in Ireland. Norbrook are in newry so are close. I’m not sure where msd’s and bimeda’s manufacting are.

alps

Bass Reeves wrote: »

There is no levy/duty on Milk products AFAIK so milk will not be under the same pressure

Cheese at 40% duty, maybe fresh products at a lower rate, but some coops really concerned and really exposed.

As far as financial support mentioned earlier, just look at the amount previous supports have amounted to. While welcome, they really wouldn't have amounted to single digit percentages of the shortfalls...

Some lads could only use them yo pay for a ski holiday...??

Suckler

Willfarman wrote: »

Lab our party wants to go back to the ballot.. there won’t be much of an exit at I think now. A half arsed one at worst.

Labour are desperate for renewed voter approval after the last few months of Corbyn being strung up on antisemitism claims. I think they'd say anything to get people (especially young voters) looking their way again.