Should farmers start planning for Brexit?

K.G. · 09-06-2017 7:24pm

kowtow wrote: »

It's notable that the parties that actually want a re-run of the referendum, the lib dems and the SNP, did pretty badly last night.

The only way that another referendum will happen - and after last night anything is possible - is for a Corbyn govt. to get in first and then end up with a fudged Brexit where the EU manage to twist their arm and another referendum is seen as the only way out.

And if a Corbyn govt. does get in the country will be so shafted economically that it won't be worth exporting to in any event!

Ah its just a hunch with me.

Buford T. Justice XIX · 07-08-2018 11:06am

Been a while since we had a Brexit chat:D
I came across this link yesterday and said I'd throw it up.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-trade-meat-banned-eu-australia-beef-liam-fox-dit-friends-of-the-earth-a8475006.html?utm_source=reddit.com

Among the meat products suggested for export to the UK are hormone-treated beef and “burnt goat heads”.

I'm wondering how big is the demand for "burnt goat heads"?
Can't say I ever came across it in the supermarket

Base price · 07-08-2018 3:46pm

Buford T. Justice V wrote: »

Been a while since we had a Brexit chat:D
I came across this link yesterday and said I'd throw it up.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-trade-meat-banned-eu-australia-beef-liam-fox-dit-friends-of-the-earth-a8475006.html?utm_source=reddit.com

I'm wondering how big is the demand for "burnt goat heads"?
Can't say I ever came across it in the supermarket

It appears to be a Halal delicacy - http://newshahimpex.ca/portfolio-item/goat-head-burnt/

Siamsa Sessions · 07-08-2018 7:04pm

Looks like there’s not much more clarity now than there was when this thread started (burnt goat heads, notwithstanding!)

Whatever way the cards eventually fall, the farmer at the bottom will take more of a hit than the men in suits further up the chain, as is the deliberate design of the system.

We might be better off looking at that inequality and starting an honest discussion re FoodWise2025, etc. rather than being distracted by Boris Johnson, Nigel Farage, and others in the media who’re getting great mileage out of Brexit.

Mac Taylor · 07-08-2018 9:13pm

The rest of Europe’s beef farmers won’t be too happy either if we have to move the beef we sell in the uk onto mainland europe. We will collapse the whole European beef market:mad:

ganmo · 22-08-2018 4:22pm

I was poking around the EU's website yday and came across a notice regarding the feed registar.
It said that feed additives registered by companies in the UK will loose their registration come the end of march. Meaning no feed including those additives could be sold/imported to the EU.

I hope the uk companies will have transferred the registration to one of their subsidiary in the EU. Failing that what possible impact is there to farms here? Milk replacer(Volac in england), pig, poultry feed and mineral premixes (devenish and trouw up north) could get stopped at the border.

Volac have a subsidiary in Ireland and devenish and trouw have significant cross border markets so I can't see them letting this get away from them but its better to be aware of what could happen

jntsnk · 22-08-2018 8:24pm

They will eventually hammer something out. There is too much financially to lose on both sides. The real tragedy and a disgrace is that this uncertainty is causing undue worry and expense.

davidk1394 · 22-08-2018 9:01pm

jntsnk wrote: »

They will eventually hammer something out. There is too much financially to lose on both sides. The real tragedy and a disgrace is that this uncertainty is causing undue worry and expense.

All the uncertainty is done by media speculation. Their scaremongering the MP’s and public in equal measure. Everyone knows everything yet everyone knows nothing. I think any person considering a conversion of a farm like ourselves should wait perhaps 2 years.

wrangler · 22-08-2018 9:11pm

davidk1394 wrote: »

All the uncertainty is done by media speculation. Their scaremongering the MP’s and public in equal measure. Everyone knows everything yet everyone knows nothing. I think any person considering a conversion of a farm like ourselves should wait perhaps 2 years.

Probably be quotas again by then

alps · 23-08-2018 12:03am

davidk1394 wrote: »

All the uncertainty is done by media speculation. Their scaremongering the MP’s and public in equal measure. Everyone knows everything yet everyone knows nothing. I think any person considering a conversion of a farm like ourselves should wait perhaps 2 years.

Uncertainty is not just caused by speculation. Massive uncertainty, massive costs, massive planning issues exist because day to day planning of the simplest and most basic of things cannot take place as normal.

An simple example of this is a family meat company in NI who supply the multiples all over UK and Ireland. Their normal packaging supply chain means that they are now ordering from their suppliers for next spring supply, but at this stage cannot get an answer from either their customers or political guidance as to what regulatory print needs to be on the packaging.

Currently the packaging carries the EU production facility stamp as well as saying made in the EU...but nobody can give guidance as to how simple things like this should change..if at all.

Their haulage contractors have now opened a depot in the South, and all new trucks registered in the South....without answers as to what is going to happen, they need to hedge against any or all eventualities.. the on going and possibly needless cost to business is huge..

Buford T. Justice XIX · 20-09-2018 1:11pm

On the hole Brexit thingy, I thought this part was worth mentioning.

London is relaxed about different agriculture and food regulations applying in Northern Ireland to the rest of the U.K., because they already exist.

https://www.politico.eu/article/theresa-may-irish-border-brexit-assault-on-eu-demands/

20silkcut · 22-09-2018 11:46am

Just wondering what silver linings could be gained from the dark cloud of a hard no deal brexit . Could the Irish sugar industry be re started considering a lot of our sugar currently comes from Britain.
Will the government support farmers beef farmers in particular to diversify in the inevitable devastation of the beef industry?
Can the EU fill the hole in Irish farmers pockets left by having no market for our cattle. God knows how large it will be.
I have heard of a cattle price collapse in 1974 after joining the common market which more than halved the value of cattle but it quickly recovered. In a hard no deal brexit I’d imagine there would be no quick recovery. It would have to be diversification of farming operation.
With the current price of store cattle it already feels like a hard brexit.
I currently have a herd of cattle worth less than what I paid for them. And a nice little bill in the co-op for the last 6 months. Thank god for the BPS.

greenfield21 · 22-09-2018 11:56am

I am the only one who thinks the Brits will do well out of brexit? Seems like were all looking down on them in ire for been fools. Everybody keeps talking about the English media but look at our own so much bias in everything they print.

20silkcut · 22-09-2018 12:13pm

greenfield21 wrote: »

I am the only one who thinks the Brits will do well out of brexit? Seems like were all looking down on them in ire for been fools. Everybody keeps talking about the English media but look at our own so much bias in everything they print.

For British companies competing with EU companies in their domestic market brexit will be a god send.
If Britain follows a cheap food policy as many of the brexiteers say they will that will devastate British farming with nothing only the michael gove environmental subsidy to survive on.
It will be in the interest of the EU and every trading bloc in the world to devastate British agri business in a no deal Brexit. I heard one commentator say that is a process that will take 18 months.

ganmo · 22-09-2018 12:17pm

greenfield21 wrote: »

I am the only one who thinks the Brits will do well out of brexit? Seems like were all looking down on them in ire for been fools. Everybody keeps talking about the English media but look at our own so much bias in everything they print.

There will be some that will do well out of it but depending on what is finally agreed it could end up pretty bad for joe soap

wexie · 22-09-2018 12:22pm

20silkcut wrote: »

farmers in particular to diversify in the inevitable devastation of the beef industry?

Would it come to that though? I'm just curious as I've been reading a lot about (especially) beef exports to the UK but would Irish beef not be seen as a high quality product internationally? (no growth hormones, antibiotics etc. etc)

Would new markets not be found? I would have assumed there are currently people out there actively looking for new export markets?

This would seem like a very marketable image no?

turfin · 22-09-2018 12:49pm

wexie wrote: »

Would it come to that though? I'm just curious as I've been reading a lot about (especially) beef exports to the UK but would Irish beef not be seen as a high quality product internationally? (no growth hormones, antibiotics etc. etc)

Would new markets not be found? I would have assumed there are currently people out there actively looking for new export markets?

This would seem like a very marketable image no?

All our beef is saleable somewhere else but at what price? The UK is a premium market, farmers here operating on razor thin margins or none, selling beef for significantly less to other markets is just not financially viable. If we lose access to the UK beef market beef farming here will be over for many. It's just too soon to find the new markets required to take that volume of beef.

tractorporn · 22-09-2018 12:53pm

wexie wrote:

Would it come to that though? I'm just curious as I've been reading a lot about (especially) beef exports to the UK but would Irish beef not be seen as a high quality product internationally? (no growth hormones, antibiotics etc. etc)

Yes it would but Irish beef is sold cheaper than UK beef on the supermarket shelves. The one real thing that would scupper us selling our beef as a quality product in the UK is that Joe Public over there doesn't care about quality and almost exclusively makes purchasing decisions on price, they say they don't want South American beef but yet when it's on offer it's all snapped up. The one exception to that is the upper middle and upper class who shop in M&S and Waitrose to make a statement about their wealth.

memorystick · 22-09-2018 12:57pm

One of the biggest farmers around here is not being buying cattle to feed at the moment. He's waiting until after Christmas and spring because he reckons the whole arse will completely fall out of them. He have a turn over if about 200 head per week.

jntsnk · 22-09-2018 1:55pm

But I’m wordering has Britain got a plan B for importing meat or other food for that matter. Have they been in talks with countries outside of the EU. I don’t think so. Is it all a bluff.
So the market will still be there only thing are the WTO charges applying then.
And you have a lot of Irish factories with British slaughtering plants. Could they bring in Irish sides and process the meat , label it as British then.

Bass Reeves · 22-09-2018 3:09pm

memorystick wrote: »

One of the biggest farmers around here is not being buying cattle to feed at the moment. He's waiting until after Christmas and spring because he reckons the whole arse will completely fall out of them. He have a turn over if about 200 head per week.

I wonder has that anything to do with banks starting to refuse stocking loans unless there is an agreed beef price from procrssors

20silkcut · 22-09-2018 4:10pm

Bass Reeves wrote: »

I wonder has that anything to do with banks starting to refuse stocking loans unless there is an agreed beef price from procrssors

Nobody can predict the next few months neither farmers factories or banks.
But all models and forecasts run by the WTO predict that a hard no deal brexit is a disaster and the Irish beef industry is definitely one of the casualties.
That is without doubt.

memorystick · 22-09-2018 4:15pm

Bass Reeves wrote: »

I wonder has that anything to do with banks starting to refuse stocking loans unless there is an agreed beef price from procrssors

I doubt for this guy. One of the biggest SFP in the country. He bought every bit of land he has which is well over 1000 acres. Plenty of brains and ability. He could be wrong though. There could be major panic buying to fill freezers and fridges before March.

jntsnk · 22-09-2018 5:25pm

It could all change, PM May is struggling with support, cold feet starting to kick in?

Loves_lorries · 22-09-2018 5:49pm

I'm not smart enough to have a contingency plan for what pig headed politicians in London and Brussels land us with.

Only nuclear option I have in reserve at all times is if it all goes south, I plant the whole place or simply grow silage for dairymen.not much of a plan admittedly.

jntsnk · 22-09-2018 5:58pm

Loves_lorries wrote: »

I'm not smart enough to have a contingency plan for what pig headed politicians in London and Brussels land us with.

Only nuclear option I have in reserve at all times is if it all goes south, I plant the whole place or simply grow silage for dairymen.not much of a plan admittedly.

There might be too much silage ground on the market by then......

20silkcut · 22-09-2018 6:56pm

Is there any one on here around long enough to remember the cattle price collapse of 1974 or better still the Anglo Irish economic war of the 1930’s , burn everything British except their coal, that’s probably closest to what a no deal brexit looks like (long shot) I know. They’d be shoving 90 now at least over 100 if they were farming back then.

Dinzee Conlee · 22-09-2018 7:28pm

20silkcut wrote: »

Is there any one on here around long enough to remember the cattle price collapse of 1974 or better still the Anglo Irish economic war of the 1930’s , burn everything British except their coal, that’s probably closest to what a no deal brexit looks like (long shot) I know. They’d be shoving 90 now at least over 100 if they were farming back then.

Remember the grandfather talking about the economic war... sounded fcuking grim...

What’s different now to then is agricultural matters much less to a lot of people. In 1930, agriculture was almost the entire economy.
Now, whilst still a a part of the economy, it’s much much less...

To non farming people we have had two crisis in farming recently... if beef price falls through the floor, and we have another ‘crisis’ - will they pay much heed?

ganmo · 22-09-2018 7:52pm

Dinzee Conlee wrote: »

Remember the grandfather talking about the economic war... sounded fcuking grim...

What’s different now to then is agricultural matters much less to a lot of people. In 1930, agriculture was almost the entire economy.
Now, whilst still a a part of the economy, it’s much much less...

To non farming people we have had two crisis in farming recently... if beef price falls through the floor, and we have another ‘crisis’ - will they pay much heed?

I heard of a story where someone brought 2 calves to the mart, ended up not sellin them but when he went back to the trailer he had 6

K.G. · 22-09-2018 8:59pm

Some good heads around here.whats a good hedge in the situation we are in now

Should farmers start planning for Brexit?

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