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new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

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    #7262
    igCorcaigh
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 11,078 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    Legacy Better Explosion wrote: »
    No data is definate, or will ever be final, for this dynamic event.
    However the best available large set of data shows for Hubei (largest region with longest duration)
    https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

    62k currently confirmed, with most in an unknown state
    I..e 'status:pending' (each case may take weeks or perhaps months before final status can be assigned)

    15k recovered and 2k dead
    So of the 'final status' we know of, 13.333% didn't ever recover.

    Takes time for the numbers to settle. Recovery rate will be high I'm sure.


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    #7263
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    ceadaoin. wrote: »
    But no one is talking about it and its a huge coverup according to others

    You just complained about a headline saying killer virus, is it not a killer virus? At least the daily mail offers a different view on the issue


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    #7264
    SeaBreezes
    Registered Users Posts: 1,524 ✭✭✭SeaBreezes


    https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200219-sitrep-30-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=6e50645_2


    WHO Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) Situation Report – 29 Feb 19..
    WHO is working with an international network of statisticians and mathematical modelers to estimate key epidemiologic parameters of COVID19, such as the incubation period (the time between infection and symptom onset), case fatality ratio (CFR, the proportion of cases that die), and the serial interval (the time between symptom onset of a primary and secondary case). Reports of current analyses that have estimated these parameters are provided in this Situation Report as a summary of currently available evidence. These values should be considered preliminary and parameters will likely be updated as more information becomes available.

    Preliminary estimates of median incubation period are 5-6 days (ranging from 0-14 days) and estimates for the serial interval range from 4.4 to 7.5 days


    The confirmed case fatality ratio, or CFR, is the total number of deaths divided by the total number of confirmed cases at one point in time. Within China, the confirmed CFR, as reported by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, is 2.3%. This is based on 1023 deaths amongst 44 415 laboratory-confirmed cases as of 11 February.
    This CFR does not include the number of more mild infections that may be missed from current surveillance, which has largely focused on patients with pneumonia requiring hospitalization; nor does it account for the fact that recently confirmed cases may yet develop severe disease, and some may die. As the outbreak continues, the confirmed CFR may change.

    (They skip past the fact all they have to do, to get a better idea, is factor in the time lag to closed cases, and estimate the number of cases 3 weeks(ish) before, but everyone seems to be fudging that issue, so it must be a scary number, otherwise it would be all over every release.(IMO))

    Anyway, here is it, the latest and greatest from WHO..

    Edit: Comments in Twitter make me laugh/cry:

    - When do we expect the findings from the team
    - Apparently after half the world's population has it.


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    #7265
    whiskeyman
    Registered Users Posts: 12,564 ✭✭✭✭whiskeyman


    Drumpot wrote: »

    Speaking on RTÉ's Drivetime, Dr Ronan Glynn reiterated the view of the department that he "would not be surprised if Ireland had a confirmed case of the virus."

    No panic , nothing to get overly concerned about right now but if it comes here, we are prepared. Good message to start communicating. I wonder have the headlines about Irish people on infected ships pushed them to start this sort of exercise, no harm if it did.

    I just saw a clip of him on the RTE 9 news.
    He said if you have symptoms, to call 999 or your GP!!!

    WTF??


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    #7266
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    igCorcaigh wrote: »
    Takes time for the numbers to settle. Recovery rate will be high I'm sure.
    Largely agree 13% is too high, if someone's going to pass, it may happen within the early weeks, rather than months. 2-5% may be more realistic.

    But there is also a risk of 'demand overload' for oxygen machines, which won't help in most situations. The young may be given priority, who knows for sure, again it can depend on external contexts and resource availability.

    When the Titanic went down, they only saved the good lookin wimin, a few super wealthy chaps and most of the young uns, Leonardo sank.


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    #7267
    RebelButtMunch
    Registered Users Posts: 2,378 ✭✭✭RebelButtMunch


    whiskeyman wrote: »
    I just saw a clip of his on the RTE 9 news.
    He said if you have symptoms, to call 999 or your GP!!!

    WTF??

    Seems ok to me. What do you think they should do?


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    #7268
    givyjoe
    Registered Users Posts: 3,287 ✭✭✭givyjoe


    RebelButtMunch wrote: »
    Seems ok to me. What do you think they should do?

    Call Joe Duffy


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    #7269
    Duke of Url
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,662 ✭✭✭Duke of Url


    fritzelly wrote: »
    They are using the 2.x% based on the total everywhere

    Remove Hubei from the equation since outside it deaths are minuscule then you get a CFR 0.7%

    That is a much happier number - unless deaths suddenly ramp up everywhere else that is a more realistic figure. Forget Hubei as it is skewing the ratio's for something that is centered on itself

    The death rate is only based on confirmed cases of people who tested positive by medical staff.

    Analysis suggests that the confirmed cases only represent around 5 - 10% of the real number of people who have contracted COVID19 but have not been tested.

    This would drop the actual death rate to 0.3% or lower


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    #7270
    whiskeyman
    Registered Users Posts: 12,564 ✭✭✭✭whiskeyman


    RebelButtMunch wrote: »
    Seems ok to me. What do you think they should do?

    Call a local GP or medical center / local HSE clinic etc...

    Calling 999 for flu symptoms seems rather excessive, no?
    So much for easing sense of panic.


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    #7271
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    Anyway see the African locust plage is spreading, even reaching Pakistan and closing on China (aka 'Sin' in the old bible books).
    The 'occult' Moon (whereby it eclipses Mars) has also just occurred today Feb 19th.

    And with that, chin up, and (cough cough) good (*cough*) luck, ,folks.


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    #7272
    fritzelly
    Registered Users Posts: 17,248 ✭✭✭✭fritzelly


    SeaBreezes wrote: »
    The confirmed case fatality ratio, or CFR, is the total number of deaths divided by the total number of confirmed cases at one point in time. Within China, the confirmed CFR, as reported by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, is 2.3%. This is based on 1023 deaths amongst 44 415 laboratory-confirmed cases as of 11 February.

    The bolded part is important - that high CFR only exists within China


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    #7273
    Call Me Jimmy
    Registered Users Posts: 8,449 ✭✭✭Call Me Jimmy


    SeaBreezes wrote: »

    (They skip past the fact all they have to do, to get a better idea, is factor in the time lag to closed cases, and estimate the number of cases 3 weeks(ish) before, but everyone seems to be fudging that issue, so it must be a scary number, otherwise it would be all over every release.(IMO))

    Anyway, here is it, the latest and greatest from WHO..

    That has confused me no end, why no time lag for death (or any reasonable lag) is used. If you add all the new confirmed cases on a specific day, the deaths are still only reflective of the confirmed cases x days ago because doing it against today's deaths implies people could die instantaneously? I must be misunderstanding.


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    #7274
    fritzelly
    Registered Users Posts: 17,248 ✭✭✭✭fritzelly


    Duke of Url wrote: »
    The death rate is only based on confirmed cases of people who tested positive by medical staff.

    Analysis suggests that the confirmed cases only represent around 5 - 10% of the real number of people who have contracted COVID19 but have not been tested.

    This would drop the actual death rate to 0.3% or lower

    You could say there are deaths happening that are not recorded as covid related as well (they are not going to waste resources on it) - so swings and roundabouts. I'm sure the real CFR outside Hubei will continue to drop


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    #7275
    branie2
    Registered Users Posts: 10,292 ✭✭✭✭branie2


    Legacy Better Explosion wrote: »
    Anyway see the African locust plage is spreading, even reaching Pakistan and closing on China (aka 'Sin' in the old bible books).
    The 'occult' Moon (whereby it eclipses Mars) has also just occurred today Feb 19th.

    And with that, chin up, and (cough cough) good (*cough*) luck, ,folks.

    I hope we don't get that either!


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    #7276
    fritzelly
    Registered Users Posts: 17,248 ✭✭✭✭fritzelly


    whiskeyman wrote: »
    I just saw a clip of him on the RTE 9 news.
    He said if you have symptoms, to call 999 or your GP!!!

    WTF??

    So everyone with a cough or a sniffle calls the emergency line, jaysus
    Should only be calling if you are dying


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    #7277
    Duke of Url
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,662 ✭✭✭Duke of Url


    Legacy Better Explosion wrote: »
    No data is definate, or will ever be final, for this dynamic event.
    However the best available large set of data shows for Hubei (largest region with longest duration)
    https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

    62k currently confirmed, with most in an unknown state
    I..e 'status:pending' (each case may take weeks or perhaps months before final status can be assigned)

    15k recovered and 2k dead
    So of the 'final status' we know of, 13.333% didn't ever recover.

    Eh what?


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    #7278
    wakka12
    Registered Users Posts: 9,786 ✭✭✭wakka12


    Eight more people on Diamon Princess become serious condition, total 28


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    #7279
    wakka12
    Registered Users Posts: 9,786 ✭✭✭wakka12


    It is unlikely the number of cases in Hubei is hugely overestimated as some suggest. Government are sweeping the province for undetected coronavirus cases by tracking and investigating purchases of fever and cough medicine currently

    https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-hubei-searches-cases-through-medicine-purchases-report-2020-2?utm_source=reddit.com&r=US&IR=T


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    #7280
    fritzelly
    Registered Users Posts: 17,248 ✭✭✭✭fritzelly


    108 new deaths

    Total confirmed cases 62,013

    Suspected - no change with new cases vs released


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    #7281
    SeaBreezes
    Registered Users Posts: 1,524 ✭✭✭SeaBreezes


    wakka12 wrote: »
    Eight more people on Diamon Princess become serious condition, total 28

    21% infection rate with another 79 confirmed cases.
    With tests of accuracy of 30-50% ... many of them will walk who already have it.


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    #7282
    ceadaoin.
    Registered Users Posts: 8,095 ✭✭✭ceadaoin.


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    You just complained about a headline saying killer virus, is it not a killer virus? At least the daily mail offers a different view on the issue

    I didnt complain about it. I was pointing out that its complete bull**** that the virus isnt being reported on or is being downplayed by msm (as being claimed by some posters), and using the daily mail as an example.


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    #7283
    MD1990
    Registered Users Posts: 11,740 ✭✭✭✭MD1990


    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1230260100822175745

    great decline in new cases


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    #7284
    wakka12
    Registered Users Posts: 9,786 ✭✭✭wakka12


    https://twitter.com/hectorology/status/1230247971540783114?s=21


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    #7285
    Call Me Jimmy
    Registered Users Posts: 8,449 ✭✭✭Call Me Jimmy


    fritzelly wrote: »
    108 new deaths

    Total confirmed cases 62,013

    Suspected - no change with new cases vs released

    Seems like they're getting a handle on things in Hubei and Wuhan.

    Yesterday in Wuhan 1,600 new cases, today 615.

    And today in Hubei outside Wuhan, 13.


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    #7286
    igCorcaigh
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 11,078 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    Thankfully all the seeds seem to be contained across the wider globe.

    Asian countries will bring new cases, as to be expected.

    This will go everywhere, but the more we can slow it down the better.


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    #7287
    wakka12
    Registered Users Posts: 9,786 ✭✭✭wakka12


    Not to sound too cynical but it actually seems impossible to believe that neighbouring countries of China today counted far more new cases than all of China outside Wuhan


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    #7288
    laurah591
    Registered Users Posts: 326 ✭✭laurah591


    fritzelly wrote: »
    108 new deaths

    Total confirmed cases 62,013

    Suspected - no change with new cases vs released

    349 new cases.... big drop off in new cases reported today. Edit so I see China have changed reporting format again and have reverted to test diagnosis again and netted off some cases ..... another monkey covers eye moment

    Meanwhile outside of the ship and China; the rest of world reported 39 new cases and 3 deaths (albeit all 3 were elderly with pre existing). Regular cases cropping up in Japan and Singapore might be raising flags - looks like both countries will hit 100 cases in the next few days

    Meanwhile Iran is going into major containment phase with all schools and universities closed tomorrow followed today's developments.


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    #7289
    fritzelly
    Registered Users Posts: 17,248 ✭✭✭✭fritzelly


    wakka12 wrote: »
    https://twitter.com/hectorology/status/1230247971540783114?s=21

    What isn't Iran telling us? They currently have a 100% death rate!


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    #7290
    Fr_Dougal
    Registered Users Posts: 9,167 ✭✭✭Fr_Dougal


    It would be helpful if they released the daily numbers of tests carried out.


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    #7291
    Beasty
    Administrators, Social & Fun Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 75,300 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭Beasty


    OK, time to step in with some mod instructions:

    1. Please interact in a civil manner
    2. Do not tell others what to do, or what to post
    3. If you have a problem with a post report it and leave the modding to the mods

    In terms of thread content:

    4. Treat everything you read here with caution. Anything posted is from an anonymous internet poster. You cannot assume anyone has any "specialist" knowledge whatever they claim
    5. Statistics are important to some (and I personally pay a lot of attention to them), but they are of very little use to anyone who is already caught up in this, or indeed knows of people who are caught up
    6. Terms such as "sinus", "airborne", "aerosol" have little relevance at this time in this jurisdiction. Ultimately though if cases are discovered in Ireland please pay attention to the relevant authorities and what they advise/recommend, and not some randomer(s) on the internet

    All the above is me talking as a complete layman on the subject. Like everything in this thread do not treat it as chapter and verse, beyond paying attention to items 1-3 above

    Any questions please PM me - do not try and dissect this post in-thread


This discussion has been closed.
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