2000 Guineas 2019

abarkie wrote: »

Do you create the spreadsheet yourself or download from somewhere?

It was a "system" mentioned in an old cheap paperback book, and I put it into Excel to make it easy to use.
You ignore all the maiden, conditions, handicap wins and just enter the Listed and Group wins.
For the classic races you will have a maximum of about four group wins for any horse. Most have none.
I would not say it is successful, but you take a closer look at the form of horses with Group wins.
If you PM we an e-mail address I will send you a copy.

I think the stamina index can be a bit misleading.
You are right to point out that Kingman can have few runners 3yo and over so his stamina index will be based on almost no runners.
The Stamina Index could only be useful for sires with at least three crops of 3yos.

For the 2018 English Derby I questioned on Betfair the stamina index of Deep Impact, the sire of Saxon Warrior.
When I looked into it in detail I found it was based on only about a dozen runners in GB/ IRE, almost all in low grade races, with the exception of Saxon Warrior himself.
The Racing Post Stamina Index is based only on GB / IRE runners.

People said Deep Impact had won over 2 miles in Japan, and had finished 3rd in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe.
Long distance races in Japan are of very firm tracks, wide tracks, the field moving along like a cycling peleton, the winner getting cover all the way (cyclists describe this as an armchair ride).

I much prefer actual data to percentages and averages.
Percentages, which should be based on data greater than a hundred (per cent) are often based on a handful.

Line Of Duty out, 31 still in (and that includes Calyx). No French trained horse.

I put 20 at 85s on Emaraaty Ana while waiting to see the final declarations.

On Windfinder the forecast wind on Saturday afternoon is 17 knots from the left and very slightly behind.
On Sunday for the 1000 Guineas it is 9 knots from behind and slightly from the left.

IAMAMORON wrote: »

It depends on the wind direction. See Tetrach's post above, he is all over it.

I became a wind watcher, and am thinking of getting one of those handheld wind measuring yokes.
If you have a bicycle you will know the effect.
As a fan of Nick Mordin I learned from his writings that it was something to consider in a race, especially on a straight course like Newmarket or The Curragh.
Mordin suggested looking at the flags (always at racecourses) and if the flag is fully stretched it is about 20 mph, half stretched about 10 mph.
Years ago at The Curragh I backed a winner in a handicap at 14/1 only because it was drawn on the far side with the wind coming from the opposite side.
The horse was out of the wind getting an easy time until asked to win in the last hundred yards.
The bookmaker had a big smile on his face when I arrived to collect, his only payout on the race.

A great example of an intelligent ride in strong wind is Frankie Dettori on Blue Bunting 16/1 in the 2011 English 1000 Guineas.
She was drawn 16, and afaik in those days high numbers were on the right (away from the stand). Now the high numbrs are stand side.
There was a strong wind from the right, and Blue Bunting was drawn on the right, the "wrong" side.
Frankie took a pull coming out of the stalls, took Blue Bunting to the back of the field, worked his way over to the left of the field, kept his filly at the rear and on the left getting cover from the wind.
The horses in front were getting a battering from the wind.
In the last furlong Frankie had plenty of horse, came up the stand rails, and won easily.

At the moment the wind at Newmarket is 29 km/h or 18 mph, and the forecast is for a little higher.

I do not know how the field will split in the 2000 Guineas.
My guess if they will all end up on the far rail as the wind is from the stand side.
My preference would be for a low draw horse (drawn far side).
It shows the risks you take with antepost betting - horses are withdrawn, the ground, draw, wind all unknown, and of course you do not know the prices on the day.

Laid Ten Sovereigns to be in the first five at 1.62.
He wins, or he comes home in his own time.