Share Picks 2021 - Thread banned users post #1

Shedite27 · 20-04-2021 4:49pm

Judith Great Balance wrote: »

What is the appeal of Peleton over something like Zwift?

Zwift is a computer system, not a bike. You set it up and watch it while riding your own bike on a turbo trainer. You can communicate with friends while doing it. Kinda replicates the "out for a spin/race" feel. You have to add the cost of the bike and turbo trainer.

Peloton you get an actual bike, and has a big iPad in front of you to have someone tell ya when to go faster/harder, and shout "Wet Ass Peloton" at you (serious, search it on Twitter :eek: )

cronos · 20-04-2021 4:50pm

LC134 wrote: »

Happened me in early March - basically gave away 7k. Each stock had bounced back a little.

Peloton is still a sore one to look at but it’s dropped quite a lot recently so I might re-enter if I can at previous discounted price.

My SPACs are actually mitigating the damage as they are already beaten up and in the 9s / low 10s.

Down roughly the same amount of money in the last week or so. Gambled and lost on stocks that were already 50% down, classic story of trying to catch a knife on high risk stocks.

Timmaay · 20-04-2021 4:51pm

DutchYurt wrote: »

Yeah I'm very much back in the red, my 2020 and 2021 gains are gone. I thought I was buying the dip too but they kept dipping. Most of my stocks right now are between 25 to 45% down.. disaster

I set a target of +20% for 2021, and hit that in like the 3rd week of jan, I thought about getting out then (but not nearly seriously enough ha), after having such a good run in 2020 I really should of taken more profits, but lessions learnt, long way till the end of 2021 so that 20%+ still the target.

20-04-2021 4:52pm

Shedite27 wrote: »

Zwift is a computer system, not a bike. You set it up and watch it while riding your own bike on a turbo trainer. You can communicate with friends while doing it. Kinda replicates the "out for a spin/race" feel. You have to add the cost of the bike and turbo trainer.

Peloton you get an actual bike, and has a big iPad in front of you to have someone tell ya when to go faster/harder, and shout "Wet Ass Peloton" at you (serious, search it on Twitter :eek: )

lol!

jams100 · 20-04-2021 4:57pm

cronos wrote: »

I definitely tried to catch a falling knife and failed. Sold skills and Opendoor at around a 25% to 30% loss. Not good for the health watching such drops each day.

Your a bit late selling :pac:

Skillz announcing Q1 results on the 4th May. I'm hoping all the weeds (sellers) will be removed from this stock before then so I can add further to position. The problem with selling now is your going to have to wait 28days to write off losses, if they post good numbers after this massive correction it will start rising again. I guess it depends how much you need that money, this is a 3yr+ hold for me.
Anyway I'm up ~15% for the year overall, during days like today its better to just close laptop and look back at account at 8:50pm, keeping the long term perspective, we're not day traders

Edit: that's not supposed to come across in an arrogant or any sort of bad way. It's just that irrational decisions can be made after several down days. Economies are going to rip over the next 12-24 months!

cronos · 20-04-2021 4:58pm

I wonder how we are all doing versus the S&P 500. I'm starting to think this individual share investing should only be done with a view to taking profits whenever they appear. Going long is dangerous.

cronos · 20-04-2021 5:02pm

jams100 wrote: »

Your a bit late selling :pac:

Skillz announcing Q1 results on the 4th May. I'm hoping all the weeds (sellers) will be removed from this stock before then so I can add further to position. The problem with selling now is your going to have to wait 28days to write off losses, if they post good numbers after this massive correction it will start rising again. I guess it depends how much you need that money, this is a 3yr+ hold for me.
Anyway I'm up ~15% for the year overall, during days like today its better to just close laptop and look back at account at 8:50pm, keeping the long term perspective, we're not day traders

I agree it's late. Will probably go up from here. But I've been saying that each day for the last week.

I don't plan to rebuy at this point. But who knows. There's not a lack of alternative stocks at rock bottom prices. But I'm moving to cash.

I'm 12% up overall but want to protect that. Most of my profits were from Boohoo and CCIV.

Mechatronical · 20-04-2021 5:37pm

Anyone have an opinion on Discovery Shares?

butrasgali · 20-04-2021 6:01pm

Same here,all my stocks are down 35%ish

Underground · 20-04-2021 6:06pm

People still bullish on Lemonade? Tempted to buy some more at this price but its been an absolute dog for me since I bought it (down 36%

) and don't wanna throw good money after bad.

Treppen · 20-04-2021 6:07pm

cronos wrote: »

I agree it's late. Will probably go up from here. But I've been saying that each day for the last week.

I don't plan to rebuy at this point. But who knows. There's not a lack of alternative stocks at rock bottom prices. But I'm moving to cash.

I'm 12% up overall but want to protect that. Most of my profits were from Boohoo and CCIV.

Did you sell boohoo ? I just bought a bit more hoping for the summer bump in UK and online

cronos · 20-04-2021 6:19pm

Treppen wrote: »

Did you sell boohoo ? I just bought a bit more hoping for the summer bump in UK and online

No I'm keeping Boohoo long term. More the stuff that's dropping 10% a day. As I say, me selling is usually a time to buy haha.

20-04-2021 6:33pm

cronos wrote: »

I wonder how we are all doing versus the S&P 500. I'm starting to think this individual share investing should only be done with a view to taking profits whenever they appear. Going long is dangerous.

What?

cronos · 20-04-2021 6:45pm

6 wrote: »

What?

When you are in a (if you are in) bubble stock and bought high. Obviously not in general. Like going long on gamestop at 200 dollars is probably not a good idea.

supue · 20-04-2021 7:04pm

Mechatronical wrote: »

Anyone have an opinion on Discovery Shares?

I was watching them last December ahead of the European launch of Discovery+. They've completed a number of bundled deals with operators across Europe (Sky, Vodafone) and some Middle Eastern operators - investor attachment to anything OTT and replacing an at risk revenue stream of traditional linear TV has been viewed favourably recently so I considered a pop in their share price but didn't pull the trigger.

They're just short of double where they were in December, and far down from when they were across Jan-Feb, but this was crazy territory. My biggest issue with them is whether their portfolio and back-catalogue (which is huge), gives them the ability to turn this into anything mainstream a-la Netflix, Amazon Prime Video, HBO Max, Disney+ which I'd consider paying for. Currently my answer is a firm no.

They're trading on a legacy brand, and need a radical rethink into mainstream production for me to consider them a buy - their traditional revenues from linear TV will decrease over time and their Eurosport brand which will merge into the Discovery+ I expect doesn't have the kind of exclusive content in markets to consider them picking up premium sports subscribers. I think they had a deal in Germany which they backed out of during Covid - Olympics and the sports they carry doesn't translate into paying subs in my view.

Think of all the Discovery channels on your TV service and if they disappeared would you consider paying €5.99 a month for it (All the Discovery sub brands, TLC, Quest, Eurosport, etc) - no chance. They'd need to convert a fairly high percentage of these to replace the lost revenue from TV operators if they were to remove them. Look at Disney+ on the other hand - their channels were well watched in the kids space and they had an impressive back-catalogue and new shows they brought to market, I just don't see that currently with Discovery.

Therefore they can complete all the bundled deals with operators which will make them look good to investors, but if this doesn't materialise to millions of customers continuing to pay for the service at the end of free trials, I struggle to see their valuation holding up.

bish76 · 20-04-2021 7:44pm

Underground wrote: »

People still bullish on Lemonade? Tempted to buy some more at this price but its been an absolute dog for me since I bought it (down 36% ) and don't wanna throw good money after bad.

I started with $102. I kept buying and it kept dropping and I continued buying. Now it's 15% of my portfolio and still 20% below BEP. Yes, I am bullish on this - may be I don't have any other option. :eek:

pioneerpro · 20-04-2021 8:08pm

jams100 wrote: »

Skillz announcing Q1 results on the 4th May. I'm hoping all the weeds (sellers) will be removed from this stock before then so I can add further to position. The problem with selling now is your going to have to wait 28days to write off losses, if they post good numbers after this massive correction it will start rising again. I guess it depends how much you need that money, this is a 3yr+ hold for me.

The actual problem here is the fact that the SPAC Sponsors somehow circumvented the 2 year lockup period a couple of weeks ago, selling their entire position, and facilitating the sell-off of the majority of the PIPE holdings. This could be an absolute bloodbath if its picked up on in the mainstream.

https://content.edgar-online.com/ExternalLink/EDGAR/0001104659-20-138151.html?hash=ef7aba83821860035446aa3f8b514514750ad1925dddab8e7171cd9c59e8c0ec&dest=TM2038890D1_EX#TM2038890D1_EX

Flex · 20-04-2021 9:05pm

Netflix share price dropped 12% the moment after close there.

Shedite27 · 20-04-2021 9:35pm

Flex wrote: »

Netflix share price dropped 12% the moment after close there.

Coincidede with their results. Netflix guided that they'd add more than 6m new subscribers in Q1. They didn't even get 4m

bcklschaps · 20-04-2021 11:13pm

cronos wrote: »

Disaster. Started selling. Probably turn in the next few mins haha.

Very close to throwing in the towel on a whole slew of stocks, that I'm currently holding. When you go from being nicely in profit to fairly serious loss on a stock in the space of a Month, its devastating

eg.

MP Materials... Was 50% in profit. Now 19% down. Share price has crashed from around $50 start of March to $27 now.

cc87 · 21-04-2021 12:05am

At least crypto is having a recovery from its dips. Everything else seems to follow dips with more dips. At this stage I would take a week or two of stocks going sideways.

Overall trading volume has been decreasing across April I think, March was one of the highest months in a long time for volume. Even though its painful atm, there's signs it's coming to an end.

butrasgali · 21-04-2021 9:29am

Sorry,this was asked before I'm sure,can I buy crypto coin on degiro..I'm interested in some dogecoin..thanks

Valhallapt · 21-04-2021 9:31am

cc87 wrote: »

Even though its painful atm, there's signs it's coming to an end.

I hope you are right, my DEGIRO has been blood red for weeks on end now.

circadian · 21-04-2021 9:36am

butrasgali wrote: »

Sorry,this was asked before I'm sure,can I buy crypto coin on degiro..I'm interested in some dogecoin..thanks

Not that I'm aware of. I'd recommend using a reputable crytpo exchange, although, even then there's risks.

Shedite27 · 21-04-2021 9:40am

butrasgali wrote: »

Sorry,this was asked before I'm sure,can I buy crypto coin on degiro..I'm interested in some dogecoin..thanks

No, and Coinbase don't trade it either. Binance probably the easiest to buy Doge

cc87 · 21-04-2021 9:53am

PLTR looks like it could start to come back up again.

Insider selling seems to have dropped off, with stock options being exercised instead and funds are buying again. ARK's approach of buying any and all dips in PLTR has probably stopped it dropping well into the mid-teens as well, another 1.15m shares yesterday.

Hopefully means the near weekly new contracts and partnerships they've announced might actually affect the SP

Chuckie_Egg · 21-04-2021 10:03am

bish76 wrote: »

I started with $102. I kept buying and it kept dropping and I continued buying. Now it's 15% of my portfolio and still 20% below BEP. Yes, I am bullish on this - may be I don't have any other option. :eek:

I'm not that well up on Lemonade but from the small DD I did it wasn't for me, I it looks like after the fad has finally waned here the share price will be south of $40

cronos · 21-04-2021 10:15am

pioneerpro wrote: »

The actual problem here is the fact that the SPAC Sponsors somehow circumvented the 2 year lockup period a couple of weeks ago, selling their entire position, and facilitating the sell-off of the majority of the PIPE holdings. This could be an absolute bloodbath if its picked up on in the mainstream.

https://content.edgar-online.com/ExternalLink/EDGAR/0001104659-20-138151.html?hash=ef7aba83821860035446aa3f8b514514750ad1925dddab8e7171cd9c59e8c0ec&dest=TM2038890D1_EX#TM2038890D1_EX

Seems to be going up pre market. Back to where I sold at least haha. Probably start a run all the way back up knowing my luck.

cronos · 21-04-2021 10:22am

bcklschaps wrote: »

Very close to throwing in the towel on a whole slew of stocks, that I'm currently holding. When you go from being nicely in profit to fairly serious loss on a stock in the space of a Month, its devastating

eg.

MP Materials... Was 50% in profit. Now 19% down. Share price has crashed from around $50 start of March to $27 now.

I had a lot of that scenario in Feburary but I decided when it dropped to break even to exit. Although I was more like 30% up on most of them.

Cute Hoor · 21-04-2021 10:58am

Bit of activity on ARB this morning, up around 20%
Trading halted I think

bish76 · 21-04-2021 10:59am

Chuckie_Egg wrote: »

I'm not that well up on Lemonade but from the small DD I did it wasn't for me, I it looks like after the fad has finally waned here the share price will be south of $40

Yes, fooled by Motley brothers and they charge for it.

John.burke · 21-04-2021 11:01am

cronos wrote: »

I had a lot of that scenario in Feburary but I decided when it dropped to break even to exit. Although I was more like 30% up on most of them.

Did you not like the stock to begin with? I understand if you want to make use of the funds elsewhere but selling a stock when the only thing that's changed is the price seems a bit off

growleaves · 21-04-2021 11:43am

I have seen Netflix and Amazon advertising their shares on Youtube Ads over the last few weeks.

To me that is a desperate sign of stock dumping.

I do think both companies are invincible over the long-term though.

sirboby · 21-04-2021 12:39pm

growleaves wrote: »

I have seen Netflix and Amazon advertising their shares on Youtube Ads over the last few weeks.

To me that is a desperate sign of stock dumping.

I do think both companies are invincible over the long-term though.

I didn't even know companies were allowed to do that.

That's crazy

SmokyMo · 21-04-2021 1:34pm

growleaves wrote: »

I have seen Netflix and Amazon advertising their shares on Youtube Ads over the last few weeks.

To me that is a desperate sign of stock dumping.

I do think both companies are invincible over the long-term though.

Are you sure it wasnt just some broker? I would be shocked if it was actually netflix or amazon doing it.

growleaves · 21-04-2021 2:00pm

SmokyMo wrote: »

Are you sure it wasnt just some broker? I would be shocked if it was actually netflix or amazon doing it.

I will pause it and look out for small print to examine if it comes up again. I didn't notice any third party broker name.

Treppen · 21-04-2021 2:16pm

I've seen Mile tipped here a few times.

What's the attraction. (Apart from charging by the mile, which is easy for any other company to copy!).

treatyman · 21-04-2021 2:18pm

growleaves wrote: »

I will pause it and look out for small print to examine if it comes up again. I didn't notice any third party broker name.

Click on the ad and see where it brings you.

cronos · 21-04-2021 2:43pm

John.burke wrote: »

Did you not like the stock to begin with? I understand if you want to make use of the funds elsewhere but selling a stock when the only thing that's changed is the price seems a bit off

I'm no expert on this by any stretch. But the market is revaluing these drastically. What's a good company and what's a good stock can be two different things. Also there have been some short reports suggesting the management team are lying on some of the financial projections. Given the SPAC market is being investigated by the SEC, that does not seem unbelievable. But I probably have sold too late, just didn't want to watch it continue to decline. But it's probably found it's bottom now I suspect.

Edit: Typical, up she goes haha

Edit 2: Most certainly not an expert should have held, a day like today would have been enough to give me some confidence back. You live and learn. Expensive lesson.

ADZAM · 21-04-2021 2:56pm

ADZAM wrote: »

MILE reaching new all time lows, lemonade they will launch car insurance by the end of the year.
Down 50% off peak in February.

Relieved to see some green today on Metromile, bought at the low yesterday, up over $8 again, thankfully!

ADZAM · 21-04-2021 2:59pm

Affirm (AFRM) is another stock that got battered since February, down almost 60% off high.
They are one of the pioneering of BNPL (buy now, pay later), they integrate with shopify to allow merchants to offer their service. Price action kinda pegged to Peloton as they are a major affirm customer. Affirm acquired returnly today, a startup that looks after returns for eCommerce.
The founder Max Levchin was one of the founders of paypal, I am bullish on affirm and added around $63 recently to average down. I could see them either growing well on their own or being acquired by Shopify, Paypal, Square (any big ecommerce/fintech companies).

cc87 · 21-04-2021 3:10pm

Treppen wrote: »

I've seen Mile tipped here a few times.

What's the attraction. (Apart from charging by the mile, which is easy for any other company to copy!).

Betsy Cohen, Ryan Graves, Mark Cuban involved.

They're an AI-based insurance company currently operating in 8 states, planned to expand to 20 by end of year (unlikely now due to COVID). Possibly covering the majority of the US by end 2022

Looking to expand not just in terms of areas of operation but also into other areas for insurance.

Partnering with car manufacturers.

Looking to license their software out to other companies, ie SaaS based (https://enterprise.metromile.com/).

Yes, other companies can do pay-per-mile but they don't. The closest is Root that looks to assess your driving behaviour and charges based off that. It's a huge market and many others do not have the growth potential of a metromile. In addition, it would require huge expense to develop a good model at a time when companies are trying not to spend. (Possibly more likely that a Geico or similar buys metromile)

ADZAM · 21-04-2021 5:18pm

cc87 wrote: »

Betsy Cohen, Ryan Graves, Mark Cuban involved.

They're an AI-based insurance company currently operating in 8 states, planned to expand to 20 by end of year (unlikely now due to COVID). Possibly covering the majority of the US by end 2022

Looking to expand not just in terms of areas of operation but also into other areas for insurance.

Partnering with car manufacturers.

Looking to license their software out to other companies, ie SaaS based (https://enterprise.metromile.com/).

Yes, other companies can do pay-per-mile but they don't. The closest is Root that looks to assess your driving behaviour and charges based off that. It's a huge market and many others do not have the growth potential of a metromile. In addition, it would require huge expense to develop a good model at a time when companies are trying not to spend. (Possibly more likely that a Geico or similar buys metromile)

To your point, the main reason I stuck with them is they are only going to get bigger from here, they are in 8 states today, wait until they are in 10,15, 20, you get the point.

cronos · 21-04-2021 5:56pm

That's some crazy run on SKLZ. No idea what's driving the market these days.

pioneerpro · 21-04-2021 7:12pm

cronos wrote: »

That's some crazy run on SKLZ. No idea what's driving the market these days.

GIK, LOTZ, ACTC, NGA as well. Action is absolutely bizarre today on any number of SPACs.

Atlas_IRL · 21-04-2021 8:04pm

Just wanna say for one day before we get the fake out ad red again..

SPACS ARE BACK BABY!

jams100 · 21-04-2021 10:48pm

cronos wrote: »

I definitely tried to catch a falling knife and failed. Sold skills and Opendoor at around a 25% to 30% loss. Not good for the health watching such drops each day.

This is what I think of when I see some people buying and selling in this thread

cc87 · 22-04-2021 12:31am

cc87 wrote: »

Current Portfolio...
Sold all NRZ plus trimmed others to move to crypto. Aim is to keep around 10% in crypto but shares dropped since so it's a bit higher. Roughly 40% BTC, 15% ETH, 15% DOT, 10% USDT, 10% XRP, 10% ROSE. BTC was about 50% until it dipped and ETH gained.

Added NIO at 37.30. Probably sell this once it recovers, not confident in keeping Chinese shares currently.
CCIV as well around the 22 mark. Too cheap not to buy.
AONE/Markforged a 3d printing SPAC, down slightly since
Bought Tesla just over 600. I am a convert.
TSIA/Latch, this is a spac that really intrigues me. Basically a SaaS that works as a go between for real estate companies and smart home companies. Offers an app where all devices can be controlled by the user and stays with you when you move home. They've also partnered with manufacturers and make their own devices. Stupidly low churn and some big companies partnered with them. Slight concern is that one of their biggest partners, Tishman Speyer, is also a major sponsor of the SPAC
Bought more IAG when it dipped to 185 a few weeks ago, nice quick recovery to 200+

Some speculative plays added, IMM.L pharma in phase 3 of a lupus drug, Mode.l bitcoin app, Vela.l an investment firm with shares in mode and a potential covid drug (https://arcadiatrial.org/). These totalled less than 2% of the portfolio until everything else dipped and they held firm.

Currently -4% overall.

22-04-2021 7:44am

Nice portfolio
Do you spend much on transactions costs, as you buy and sell regularly?

cc87 · 22-04-2021 8:55am

6 wrote: »

Nice portfolio
Do you spend much on transactions costs, as you buy and sell regularly?

More than I would like to currently but I use Degiro for most trades and mainly US stocks which keeps fees low then Binance for crypto which also has low enough fees.

Was never my intention to trade more than invest. The last two months worth of dips meant I used up cash I was keeping on the sidelines. Don't see myself doing much over the next few months unless the speculative plays come through and there's some profit to be taken.

Starting to invest in fractional shares is the next area I want to look into. Make some of the higher cost shares like AMZN more attainable.

Share Picks 2021 - Thread banned users post #1

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