FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

John.Icy · 20-12-2020 1:45pm

It's not really being pushed out? The GFS is as you were with an initial attempt at height rises towards Greenland from the 26th. It flattens out then attempt 2 +300 hours.

gfs-0-180.png?6

Artane2002 · 20-12-2020 1:54pm

I'm not sure why people are saying it's being pushed out, the 26th/27th have always been the days to watch.

also, does anybody have any verification stats for the models? from observation, I've noticed that the GFS has been performing better than the ECM and even the UKMO. I'm not saying this because it's showing what we want! the ECM ensembles have constantly been showing cold charts that haven't verified this winter. and now, the ECM is all over the shop while the GFS/GEFS have maintained remarkable consistency over the last few days. the EPS keep flipping from flatter to more amplified and back again. it's just an observation, it would be interesting to see if it's scientifically accurate.

ZX7R · 20-12-2020 2:42pm

Artane2002 wrote: »

I'm not sure why people are saying it's being pushed out, the 26th/27th have always been the days to watch.

also, does anybody have any verification stats for the models? from observation, I've noticed that the GFS has been performing better than the ECM and even the UKMO. I'm not saying this because it's showing what we want! the ECM ensembles have constantly been showing cold charts that haven't verified this winter. and now, the ECM is all over the shop while the GFS/GEFS have maintained remarkable consistency over the last few days. the EPS keep flipping from flatter to more amplified and back again. it's just an observation, it would be interesting to see if it's scientifically accurate.

Not scientifically accurate,
For the last 6 weeks the gfs has out performed the ecm
For where I live now in Poland.
The ECM outperformed the gsf on the type of perspiration forecast though.

Nabber · 20-12-2020 3:28pm

Snowbiee21 wrote: »

All well and good, but the “eye candy” gets pushed out a day or two every day after a poor viewing of charts it seems.

That's why it's an FI thread though. No need for deeper analysis other than blue good green bad.

Rebelbrowser · 20-12-2020 6:32pm

Decent looking GFS and GEM this afternoon. Anyone saying there is no chance of snow in the next two weeks is being very premature. Of course guessing it won't snow will be right 95% of the time, but the odds of snow in the next fortnight must be at least 25 to 30% (which of course still makes it an outside shot)

PukkaStukka · 20-12-2020 6:40pm

ZX7R wrote: »

Not scientifically accurate,
For the last 6 weeks the gfs has out performed the ecm
For where I live now in Poland.
The ECM outperformed the gsf on the type of perspiration forecast though.

Is that a new product they are offering?

Comhrá · 20-12-2020 6:41pm

PukkaStukka wrote: »

Is that a new product they are offering?

It is to be Sure.

Gonzo · 20-12-2020 6:52pm

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Decent looking GFS and GEM this afternoon. Anyone saying there is no chance of snow in the next two weeks is being very premature. Of course guessing it won't snow will be right 95% of the time, but the odds of snow in the next fortnight must be at least 25 to 30% (which of course still makes it an outside shot)

So far there isn't any great signs of snow over the next 2 weeks, nothing substantial anyway. I do think most of us will see wintry falls of cold rain/sleet/wet snow at times with lying snow mostly reserved for high ground locations. As most of the cold is northerly based between now and New Year's Day, much of this would be rather dry too so I don't think we will be seeing much in the way of heavy rainfall/wintry mix in the run up to the New year.

We appear to be still at the evolving stage into a new weather pattern which contains alot of blocking and the possibilities of a multi stage warming and a major SSW forming in January is still very much open. Compare this to the past two winters and it's a world of difference. I am hoping that the charts we see in FI will develop further and maybe we might be in with a chance for some proper cold in January rather than the low level cold that will in place up to New Year's Day. So much to play for yet.

nacho libre · 20-12-2020 7:51pm

Gonzo wrote: »

So far there isn't any great signs of snow over the next 2 weeks, nothing substantial anyway. I do think most of us will see wintry falls of cold rain/sleet/wet snow at times with lying snow mostly reserved for high ground locations. As most of the cold is northerly based between now and New Year's Day, much of this would be rather dry too so I don't think we will be seeing much in the way of heavy rainfall/wintry mix in the run up to the New year.

We appear to be still at the evolving stage into a new weather pattern which contains alot of blocking and the possibilities of a multi stage warming and a major SSW forming in January is still very much open. Compare this to the past two winters and it's a world of difference. I am hoping that the charts we see in FI will develop further and maybe we might be in with a chance for some proper cold in January rather than the low level cold that will in place up to New Year's Day. So much to play for yet.

Yes, there is much to play for in terms of getting a more noteworthy cold spell courtesy of a SSW in early January.
The one caveat is that an SSW, assuming there even is one, may not work in our favour. Also, given that there is a disconnect between the stratosphere and tropopshere vortex could this have an adverse effect?

In the more immediate term, while there won't be substantial snow anywhere within the next 11 days, as we saw at the start of December there can be surprises, so low levels areas in the north and north west could get a covering of snow between now and the new year.

Villain · 20-12-2020 7:55pm

I do like an auld split

lostweekend3 · 20-12-2020 8:25pm

No expert but the ECM to my eye looks to be an improvement on this mornings run. Atlantic ridge extending up to Greenland on 27th.

John.Icy · 20-12-2020 8:46pm

With low pressure dropping down from the north and coming very close to us, there will be frontal snow opportunities. In those cases, you can get away with slightly less cold uppers so it's not all doom in those regards.

Rebelbrowser · 20-12-2020 9:57pm

John.Icy wrote: »

With low pressure dropping down from the north and coming very close to us, there will be frontal snow opportunities. In those cases, you can get away with slightly less cold uppers so it's not all doom in those regards.

Thats my hope too.

arctictree · 21-12-2020 11:35am

GFS 06z T+144 Getting closer....

RobertKK · 21-12-2020 7:02pm

Looking at the BBC weather, they had plenty of charts for next week.
We are in a very cold period, the forecaster said it would be unsettled with rain, but then said with it being cold, it could become very interesting next week.
So it seems all point the same way for next week, cold and possibility of snow.

Kermit.de.frog · 21-12-2020 7:13pm

RobertKK wrote: »

Looking at the BBC weather, they had plenty of charts for next week.
We are in a very cold period, the forecaster said it would be unsettled with rain, but then said with it being cold, it could become very interesting next week.
So it seems all point the same way for next week, cold and possibility of snow.

It's a complex situation. On the one hand by day not a particularly cold elevated air mass given our proximity to the center of the circulation. However, this is countered somewhat by the fact the freezing level will be lower than usual for this situation which means snow can come down to lower levels more easily particularly in heavier precipitation.

It will be very cold at night though with temperatures widely below freezing. People will notice that.

I'd caution that this is still at a distance so we could yet see upgrades in the depth of cold.

I'm willing to give it a few more days to see what goodies are on offer.

Meteorite58 · 21-12-2020 9:52pm

Yes complex is the word, quite unsettled, potential there for wet and windy weather at times, possibly wintry and could see snow falls, loads of different scenarios depending on position of LP's timing of frontal activity, position of cold airmass but it is certainly trending cold.

pauldry · 22-12-2020 10:40am

Cold and Icy and some whiteness at times especially in mornings but complex low has all sorts of air circulating in it even though its cold sourced so its not all cold enough for snow just sectors of it.

Because of where the low is coming from though it wont be as messy as a cold Northwesterly maybe black ice will be a problem and therefore even wet snow will lie on cold surface.

typhoony · 22-12-2020 4:28pm

typhoony · 22-12-2020 6:40pm

1065hpa over Greenland

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gfs/12_228_mslp500.png

nacho libre · 22-12-2020 7:43pm

Hopefully the yellows can make it to Greenland to make it a proper Greenland High

Villain · 23-12-2020 12:03am

You got to love the pub run

Birdnuts · 23-12-2020 2:50am

BBC tv forecast just now being surprisingly bullish on next week being "cold and wintery"

BLIZZARD7 · 23-12-2020 2:55am

Villain wrote: »

You got to love the pub run

East coast and beyond would be buried ala 2010 under this setup, East to North easterlies for about 5+ days straight with nice low pressure and a Greenland/Iceland high in situ...

gfs-0-252.png?18

Kermit.de.frog · 23-12-2020 10:20am

Things looking ever more interesting this morning within 7 - 14 days. We are seeing ever colder projections atm. Plenty of entertainment to be had if we continue on this track.

Still cold for the rest of the week and snow for some of us from time to time. Bitterly cold nights.

Great to have optimistic outlooks

pauldry · 23-12-2020 11:43am

Maybe they know we are in lockdown so a chart with High Pressure and Southwesterlies would mean no hits for their webpage!

typhoony · 23-12-2020 12:07pm

even though there doesn't appear to be any extreme cold to tap into you'd expect with an extended period of Northerly airflow that the charts will trend colder as we get into the weekend so that by mid next week the country is hovering around freezing during the day

Gonzo · 23-12-2020 12:26pm

looks wintry indeed on the latest charts, cold stretched out to the ends of FI and fairly unsettled from December 27th with temperatures lowering. It almost seems we are not that far from possibly tapping into some properly bitter air if this setup maintains itself well into January.

nacho libre · 23-12-2020 12:26pm

Yes, even if the coldest air does not get to us, the air in situ should start to cool down so long as there is no mixing from Atlantic sourced air. Some places should see snow over the next seven days!

pauldry · 23-12-2020 12:36pm

I think the period from Stephens night to Dec 28th is a period of potential snowfall in places. After that I would reckon the dreaded Atlantic will mix in bringing rain and sleet mostly.

Gonzo · 23-12-2020 12:45pm

pauldry wrote: »

I think the period from Stephens night to Dec 28th is a period of potential snowfall in places. After that I would reckon the dreaded Atlantic will mix in bringing rain and sleet mostly.

December 30th of January 5th is still cool but Atlantic air is thrown into the mix, hopefully the trend will become colder before then. The GFS turns quite snowy for Leinster from January 6th to 8th but that's a long way out.

nacho libre · 23-12-2020 1:32pm

If the lows are flabby and filling over us, perhaps any mixing of air would be lessened. No doubt we will see cold rain and sleet at times, but at least some part of the country would be very unlucky not to get some snow before the New Year.

Villain · 23-12-2020 6:56pm

I found the image of the Rollercoaster

Interesting setup for sure but I’m not convinced we’ll see snow in short term for many.

Reckless Abandonment · 24-12-2020 12:14pm

Fantastic model watching at the moment. Low drops down in the 27th/28th hangs around for a few days the another one (a bit colder) drops down in the 5th and all the time it cold from start to finish of the gfs 6z . There is so much going on with moisture available and cold someone has to strike white gold. The big question is will it he cold enough.

Gonzo · 24-12-2020 1:33pm

Reckless Abandonment wrote: »

There is so much going on with moisture available and cold someone has to strike white gold. The big question is will it he cold enough.

that is a downside to this possibly prolonged cold spell, while it does look cold, the uppers aren't bitterly cold because there is too much Atlantic modification and long sea fetch, there also isn't any real cold air around Europe yet, it's still up above Iceland and just north of Scandinavia so the uppers are ranging -3 to -6 for the most part.
This will be marginal I feel with many places getting cold rain with a mixture of sleet and possibly wet snow with lying snow more reserved for high ground.

There is the possibility that as this cold spell goes on our own cold pool will start to evolve and maybe then any precipitation that does fall becomes more snow rather than a wet mixture. We have time on our hands with this one as we are heading into the coldest part of mid winter and we have yet to see how this SSW plays out and it's effects over the next month. I will be amazed if most of us don't see at least one decent snow day at some stage between now and March because this is the best mid winter set up we have had in many, many years.

Roots 2020 · 24-12-2020 1:41pm

Villain wrote: »

I found the image of the Rollercoaster

Interesting setup for sure but I’m not convinced we’ll see snow in short term for many.

Looks like wave 3 on a Covid chart!

BLIZZARD7 · 24-12-2020 9:44pm

It's rare to see an op run with a black hole anomaly of high pressure over Greenland, especially at day 10, yet that is exactly what we have on tonight's ECM Ensemble MEAN chart -

EDH101-240.GIF?24-0

The op run was a warm outlier in its latter frames but FI is only about +120hrs at the moment. Tis unusual to see such agreement about this at day 10 though. There should be lots more great model viewing over the festive period, with these synoptics we will start to see model runs showing deep cold visiting our shores soon, whether or not we get there in reality is a different question... Things are looking very promising though, more so than I have ever seen before at this time of year... :cool:

GFS leading the way in recent weeks.

Merry Christmas to all !

Artane2002 · 24-12-2020 11:30pm

the GFS 18z lost its sanity... it's showing a 1050mb HP over Greenland on New Year's Eve (19:00) and lots of troughing/shortwaves over Europe, very very strange looking chart, lots of shortwaves all over the place. I'd love to upload the picture but it's such a pain doing it on this laptop.

JanuarySnowstor · 24-12-2020 11:38pm

Time for a thread on next week Kermit??
The 18z continues the trend of build towards new year!!
Ironic how global warming is delivering for our shores last 10 years!
Synoptically I've never seen the likes of it before!!

Snowbiee21 · 24-12-2020 11:39pm

Artane2002 wrote: »

the GFS 18z lost its sanity... it's showing a 1050mb HP over Greenland on New Year's Eve (19:00) and lots of troughing/shortwaves over Europe, very very strange looking chart, lots of shortwaves all over the place. I'd love to upload the picture but it's such a pain doing it on this laptop.

Someone care to share the chart?

Artane2002 · 24-12-2020 11:59pm

Snowbiee21 wrote: »

Someone care to share the chart?

I think the chart will change when the 0z comes out, I can't get imgur to work as I mentioned but here's the chart. it's not as strange looking at it the second time but I don't think it's right either, yesterday's 18z also went off the rails.

gfs-0-168.png?18

Kermit.de.frog · 25-12-2020 12:16am

The problem we have this year is that it has been much milder than normal in eastern Europe and western Russia - we have no real deep cold pool to tap in to.

Our only route at the moment for snow is a northeasterly over Scandinavia in terms of anything significant from the continent.

Gonzo · 27-12-2020 3:41pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The problem we have this year is that it has been much milder than normal in eastern Europe and western Russia - we have no real deep cold pool to tap in to.

Our only route at the moment for snow is a northeasterly over Scandinavia in terms of anything significant from the continent.

yep the very mild European December has degraded this cold spell alot from what could have been. This mornings GFS operational run isn't great but several of the lower resolution members are having a go at getting us very cold and much more interesting bringing in much colder air further south.

A few choice runs from this mornings models. Highly unlikely to verifiy but maybe the runs are onto something colder.

GFS P26:

GFS P21:

GFS P29:

GFS P09:

GFS P20:

There are more cold runs than the above shown but these give a glimmer of hope that the window is still well and truly open to deliver something more promising in January.

Slashermcguirk · 27-12-2020 4:23pm

It would be great to get a super cold event that happens in mid January. Days much shorter then and I always felt January should deliver our coldest weather. So often it’s February / March that ends up delivering our coldest weather but days getting longer at that point.

A snowy January would be class

Kermit.de.frog · 27-12-2020 5:16pm

My own sense is we have entered a long colder period but just have yet to hit the jackpot. We are in the buildup.

Gonzo · 27-12-2020 5:36pm

12z about midway through rollout, that appears to be a bit of a screeching easterly over Ireland and major high pressure developing over Greenland. Hopefully we hit the jackpot on further updates and more of the other members.

Kermit.de.frog · 27-12-2020 5:39pm

The great Munster blizzard on the 6th of January

Artane2002 · 27-12-2020 5:41pm

PLEASE let this happen

8A32565B-322F-469C-8112-1EA22CE6FDE8.png.7d6eb90bdd2c9d4d33503f9135caf35a.png

A2438457-BA56-47D0-AD64-8CDBE5EEB46A.png.d3103059834aa864d42bee426d5f11f2.png

Snowbiee21 · 27-12-2020 5:42pm

Artane2002 wrote: »

PLEASE let this happen

FI for a reason, won’t get excited until at least 48-72 hours beforehand! Promising signs nevertheless

Artane2002 · 27-12-2020 5:43pm

Snowbiee21 wrote: »

FI for a reason, won’t get excited until at least 48-72 hours beforehand! Promising signs nevertheless

the models have been toying around with some sort of an easterly for the start of January but not quite as good as what the GFS is showing. I'd love to trust what the GFS is showing but it has been extremely inconsistent recently so it's hard to have any faith in it, and of course, it's in FI.

FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST