Saturday PM (10th) - Tuesday AM (13th), Snow and Ice

loughside · 10-02-2018 9:27pm

haven`t seen snowflakes as big this winter..

Gaoth Laidir · 10-02-2018 9:30pm

Back to a rain/snow mix at Aldergrove at 20:20.

Gaoth Laidir · 10-02-2018 9:31pm

Warning for snow at Knock

EIKN AD WRNG 01 VALID 110100/111200 SNOW FBL 1 TO 3CM FCST =

JCX BXC · 10-02-2018 9:32pm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Back to a rain/snow mix at Aldergrove at 20:20.

It was the same at 19:50?

Kermit.de.frog · 10-02-2018 9:32pm

Temperatures retreating now from the west. 6.2c here in North Dublin - a drop of almost 3c in the last hour.

Showers should turn to snow before midnight across much of the northwest and Connaught then nationwide by around 3 am.

Edit - replaced "from 3 am with by 3 am"

mountainy man · 10-02-2018 9:35pm

Just started snowing here again, 1.3C, still have a few lying patches from last episode despite the terrible rain.

Gaoth Laidir · 10-02-2018 9:39pm

JCX BXC wrote: »

It was the same at 19:50?

The 20:00 synop showed intermittent moderate snow (ww code 72 below). It did seem a bit strange with the wbt so high but it must have been a marginal call.

AAXX 10204 03917 47250 /3208 10013 20009 39836 49913 56033 772//
333 55300 20000 85/05 86/15

Kermit.de.frog · 10-02-2018 9:48pm

Temperature at Howth currently 5.7 c - falling rapidly.

http://howthweather.com/

Gaoth Laidir · 10-02-2018 10:00pm

Back to rain at Aldergrove.

METAR EGAA 102050Z 31009KT 9999 -RA SCT002 BKN006 01/01 Q0992

Kermit.de.frog · 10-02-2018 10:06pm

Snow was a surprise there at this stage.

Happygosad33 · 10-02-2018 10:09pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Snow was a surprise there at this stage.

Met office rain warning mentioned 1 to 2cm possible to low levels as it cleared. 5cm above 250m. The intensity helped.

Gaoth Laidir · 10-02-2018 10:15pm

Aerodrome warning for Aldergrove.

Snow
Issued at: Sat 10 Feb 2018 - 11:08 UTC
Valid from: Sat 10 Feb 2018 - 20:00 UTC
Valid to: Sun 11 Feb 2018 - 06:00 UTC

SNOW (OR RAIN AND SNOW MIXED) IS LIKELY TO OCCUR AT THE AIRFIELD. SLIGHT SNOWFALL IS FORECAST, WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 3CM. SNOW TYPE WET. VISIBILITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 600M IN THE SNOWFALL, WITH A MINIMUM VISIBILITY OF 800M. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN 15KT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF DRIFTING.

Belfast City:

Snow
Issued at: Sat 10 Feb 2018 - 11:32 UTC
Valid from: Sat 10 Feb 2018 - 20:00 UTC
Valid to: Sun 11 Feb 2018 - 00:00 UTC

SLIGHT SNOW IS LIKELY TO OCCUR AT THE AIRFIELD BUT NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

sdanseo · 10-02-2018 10:22pm

Very short term warnings. Wonder what we'll see for later tomorrow.

pad199207 · 10-02-2018 10:24pm

Temperature gradually coming down now. 4.8c

Gaoth Laidir · 10-02-2018 10:28pm

sdanseo wrote: »

Very short term warnings. Wonder what we'll see for later tomorrow.

Snow is only in the TAF up to midday tomorrow. Showery activity will be diminishing after that.

TAF AMD EGAA 102103Z 1021/1118 31009KT 9999 -RA FEW002 BKN010
TEMPO 1021/1023 33020G30KT 2500 +RA RASN BKN004
BECMG 1022/1101 28014KT FEW008 SCT018
TEMPO 1100/1104 3000 SHRASN BKN012
TEMPO 1104/1112 30018G28KT 0800 SHSN BKN004 BKN012CB=

Kermit.de.frog · 10-02-2018 10:31pm

I think posting TAFs in future should have explanations in English for those who won't be able to read them. Make it easier for onlookers to understand.

George Sunsnow · 10-02-2018 10:33pm

JCX BXC wrote: »

It was the same at 19:50?

http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~brugge/18.html

For your perusal

Gaoth Laidir · 10-02-2018 10:36pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I think posting TAFs in future should have explanations in English for those who won't be able to read them. Make it easier for onlookers to understand.

I did explain the pertinent bit.

Pete2k · 10-02-2018 10:39pm

Rain suddenly turned to snow in West Roscommon. Already sticking to the cars.

pnpweirdo · 10-02-2018 10:48pm

A few serious gusts of wind here in limerick city

davidsr20 · 10-02-2018 10:52pm

Very windy here east galway.

MJohnston · 10-02-2018 10:56pm

There's a handy site here that decodes the TAFs into proper sentences, instead of the coded stuff that takes 2 hours to figure out:
http://en.allmetsat.com/metar-taf/united-kingdom-ireland.php?icao=EIDW

You can click on the map to get the different airports.

JCX BXC · 10-02-2018 10:57pm

The Aeroweather (actually think it's been renamed Pilot Weather) app is very good and update very quickly. Have been using it the last 2-3years.

sdanseo · 10-02-2018 11:03pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I think posting TAFs in future should have explanations in English for those who won't be able to read them. Make it easier for onlookers to understand.

Perhaps a sticky or item in the useful links thread with a decoding tool, maybe a link that same provided with TAF posts?

If you sit down for 10 mins it is very easy to learn how decode them. Happy to provide as much explaining as needed but such a long winded explanation in every post where the report, especially the full TAF, is posted would be a bit long winded.

Gaoth Laidir · 10-02-2018 11:03pm

Here's a guide to decoding them.

https://irishweatheronline.wordpress.com/2013/08/30/aviation-weather-a-guide-to-metars-and-tafs/

Gaoth Laidir · 10-02-2018 11:05pm

sdanseo wrote: »

Perhaps a sticky or item in the useful links thread with a decoding tool, maybe a link that same provided with TAF posts?

If you sit down for 10 mins it is very easy to learn how decode them. Happy to provide as much explaining as needed but such a long winded explanation in every post where the report, especially the full TAF, is posted would be a bit long winded.

Exactly. No need to decode the whole lot if only part of it is relevant and is explained.

sdanseo · 10-02-2018 11:14pm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

The coldest uppers will have passed east by then. Increasing heights and temperatures will cut down showery activity. Tomorrow morning 0600-1200 is the best window.

A couple of the pub runs showing the -8's sticking around later, but precip dying out by late afternoon

HIRLAM

hirlamuk-16-24-0.png?10-22

GFS, -8's present until midnight or after

27-7UK.GIF?10-18

precip at 1600Z

21-779UK.GIF?10-18

showers dying out by 2200Z
27-779UK.GIF?10-18

MJohnston · 10-02-2018 11:18pm

GFS' lack of resolution really makes it useless at accurate precip charts closer than 36 hours.

Kermit.de.frog · 10-02-2018 11:27pm

sdanseo wrote: »

explanation in every post where the report, especially the full TAF, is posted would be a bit long winded.

There is no requirement whatsoever to be posting full TAFs here. Not only is it pointless given the model data available but onlookers should not have to be doing any research to simply be able to find out what the forecast is.

Best to keep things as simple as possible. I'd recommend opening a thread for TAFs and dump them in there for those interested.

sryanbruen · 10-02-2018 11:28pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

There is no requirement whatsoever to be posting full TAFs here. Not only is it pointless given the model data available but onlookers should not have to be doing any research to simply be able to read them.

Best to keep things as simple as possible. I'd recommend opening a thread for TAFs and dump in there for those interested.

I think we have enough threads

.

lolie · 10-02-2018 11:28pm

A few very wet small flakes of snow in the last shower that passed through here in s cavan.

JCX BXC · 10-02-2018 11:30pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Best to keep things as simple as possible. I'd recommend opening a thread for TAFs and dump in there for those interested.

And we'll open separate threads for reports, separate threads for wind charts, separate threads for temp charts, separate threads for everything!

If it's relevant why not post them?

sdanseo · 10-02-2018 11:32pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

There is no requirement whatsoever to be posting full TAFs here. Not only is it pointless given the model data available but onlookers should not have to be doing any research to simply be able to find out what the forecast is.

Best to keep things as simple as possible. I'd recommend opening a thread for TAFs and dump them in there for those interested.

I think GL's approach is reasonable here. A TAF is one line, 2 max, of text on a large monitor.

A decoded TAF is many lines.

However, a TAF with relevant bits in bold and explained is maybe 2/3 lines and a happy medium. It's certainly no more obtrusive than the many hundreds of 800x600 chart pictures in the thread, which not everyone is an expert at reading either.

Example:

sdanseo's evil twin wrote:

EIDW 101700Z 1018/1118 21020G30KT 9999 BKN025 TEMPO 1018/1020 24027G44KT -RA BKN010 BECMG 1019/1021 28027G40KT BECMG 1023/1101 28020G30KT BECMG 1103/1106 26018KT PROB40 TEMPO 1112/1118 28020G30KT 5000 -SHGS BKN012 SCT018CB

40% chance of light graupel tomorrow, 1200-1800Z

Rougies · 10-02-2018 11:34pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

There is no requirement whatsoever to be posting full TAFs here. Not only is it pointless given the model data available but onlookers should not have to be doing any research to simply be able to find out what the forecast is.

Best to keep things as simple as possible. I'd recommend opening a thread for TAFs and dump them in there for those interested.

Have to disagree here Kermit, I don't think they're pointless at all as they are a professional forecast and will also take into account things we don't have access to like the Harmonie model.

Oscar Bravo · 10-02-2018 11:35pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

There is no requirement whatsoever to be posting full TAFs here. Not only is it pointless given the model data available but onlookers should not have to be doing any research to simply be able to find out what the forecast is.

Best to keep things as simple as possible. I'd recommend opening a thread for TAFs and dump them in there for those interested.

Nah, love the TAF'S, we will keep them thanks.

Kermit.de.frog · 10-02-2018 11:36pm

JCX BXC wrote: »

And we'll open separate threads for reports, separate threads for wind charts, separate threads for temp charts, separate threads for everything!

If it's relevant why not post them?

I have no problem at all with them being posted so long as they are explained for those who can not read them.

I think they are totally pointless. And yet we have them on almost every page from certain posters who clearly can't be bothered looking at the models. The model data is there.

[ Mod Snip]

bazlers · 10-02-2018 11:37pm

Seemingly around the middle of March 1979 in the Edenderry area there was at least 30CMs of level snow on the ground. There was no snow at all in tullamore. So quiet a localised event.

MJohnston · 10-02-2018 11:37pm

I've never found the TAFs particularly good in forecast terms, they're often conservative, but they're certainly useful for current observations.

George Sunsnow · 10-02-2018 11:42pm

Maybe we should open a separate thread on the merits of taf’s first rather than derailing this one with more balderdash argey bargey?

OR

I would suggest just referring to them in comoner garden language as ‘the latest xxx airport area forecast ‘ is... and say what that is
Passing visitors,the bulk of the threads traffic and the people the thread is for have no interest in argey bargey and just want to know if it’s going to snow,gale or flood ,strike with lightning etc

JCX BXC · 10-02-2018 11:42pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I have no problem at all with them being posted so long as they are explained for those who can not read them.

I think they are totally pointless. And yet we have them on almost every page from certain posters who clearly can't be bothered looking at the models. The model data is there.

It's spamming.

Ah here get off it will ya - "certain posters who clearly can't be bothered looking at the models".

You've great contributions Kermit but seriously?

Lumi · 10-02-2018 11:42pm

Mod Note

The forum moderators have no issue with TAFs being posted so long as they are decoded so that everyone can follow the thread.
We have already communicated this to the couple of posters who use them and by and large they have complied with the request to decode them.

Can we get back on topic please?

Thanks

Nettle Soup · 10-02-2018 11:44pm

So much tension with the anticipation of white gold

JanuarySnowstor · 10-02-2018 11:44pm

I have to agree with Kermit and find them rather pointless. The data we have access to is far better.
By the way I often read how useless gfs ppn charts are. I wonder can these one liners be supported because I find them very accurate.
In general I'm a big fan of the gfs anyway and think the slating it gets on other forums is quite close to a disgrace

Larbre34 · 10-02-2018 11:47pm

All this thread starting is going to KdF's head methinks.

You're a regular poster who just appears to have more time on his hands than some of the rest of us. The TAFs stay.

sdanseo · 10-02-2018 11:51pm

Looking a little ahead to Monday night:

Meteorite58 · 10-02-2018 11:51pm

Larbre34 wrote: »

All this thread starting is going to KdF's head methinks.

You're a regular poster who just appears to have more time on his hands than some of the rest of us. The TAFs stay.

Mod Note: Laerbre34 has received a warning for personal abuse. Need to get back on topic.

eastmayo · 10-02-2018 11:54pm

Snowing heavy here at the moment. Kilmovee mayo.

PukkaStukka · 10-02-2018 11:55pm

Folks, I'm not a mod and I have the passion about weather as everyone else here. I also value everyone's contribution be they amateur, pro, anorak or whatever. Each to their own as they say, but at the same time, the level of respect that has generally been shown to one another is one of the things which makes this particular forum to be as enjoyable as it is.

Can I say therefore, please, that we don't fall out among ourselves. We actually have a good thing going here

MJohnston · 11-02-2018 12:00am

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

By the way I often read how useless gfs ppn charts are. I wonder can these one liners be supported because I find them very accurate.

I said that myself, and what I mean is that the actual mapping resolution of the charts is too low to be very useful. It's 0.25 degrees, so approximately each 'square' of the model is about 27km in width. Which means you often get Dublin indicated as having snow when it really only means it'll fall over the mountains and higher ground. Similar in other parts of the country which are near high ground. And it's not great at estimating coastal effects because of this either.

Compare with say the WRF, which I don't know about the relative accuracies of the models, but the resolution is literally about 10 times better there (2km vs 27km), and so you get a better representation of the localised effects of snow.

Other short-range models like HIRLAM or ARPEGE are 0.1 degrees (about 11km), or there's the 7km ICON, or the 1.3km AROME.

So, imo, it's not about the GFS modelling precip incorrectly, it's about how specific it can get for the differentiation between snow and rain. The charts might be 100% spot on, but they're just not high-res enough to show local effects.

In addition to the above, I would say that the GFS is very useful in the medium-range for precipitation estimation, because it gives good generalised pictures of the weather we can expect, but once those short-range models come into view at around 36 hours out, you're better off switching to them for a clearer picture of how the precip will fall.

Gaoth Laidir · 11-02-2018 12:02am

The latest satellite shows colder cloud tops just arriving in the northwest now. Temps and dewpoints still pretty high in general.

https://weather.us/satellite/europe/top-alert-15min/20180210-2230z.html

PS. I will continue to post whatever TAFs I want, explaining where needed. If someone doesn't want to read them then just scroll on past. Nobody has the right to dictate what others should or should not post just because that person started the thread. In many cases TAFs are more valuable than some of the GFS precip charts that fill up pages and pages of the threads. To say that whoever posts TAFs couldn't be bothered to look at the models is pretty lame. Go and read up on TAFs if you don't understand them or read the explanation that invariably accompanies them.

Saturday PM (10th) - Tuesday AM (13th), Snow and Ice

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