100 Bets to Broke Flat Season

magicmoves · 13-05-2015 9:25am

Backed Blaine and Gathering Power. Not sure if the ground will suite Indy

FLOOPER · 13-05-2015 4:06pm

Thanks again Aidan. Had Casper Netscher ew so up today as was last weekend thanks to you. You make horse racing Ã¢Â‚Â¬un Ã¢Â‚Â¬un Ã¢Â‚Â¬un Ã°ÂŸÂ˜Â€Ã°ÂŸÂ˜Â€Ã°ÂŸÂ˜Â€

kippy · 13-05-2015 4:07pm

FLOOPER wrote: »

Thanks again Aidan. Had Casper Netscher ew so up today as was last weekend thanks to you. You make horse racing Ã¢Â‚Â¬un Ã¢Â‚Â¬un Ã¢Â‚Â¬un Ã°ÂŸÂ˜Â€Ã°ÂŸÂ˜Â€Ã°ÂŸÂ˜Â€

Are there many bookies paying out 4 places in that race?

longshotvalue · 13-05-2015 4:13pm

kippy wrote: »

Are there many bookies paying out 4 places in that race?

Paddy Power and Skybet, unfortunately i didnt know that when i put the bet up as id have taken advantage of that extra place.:mad:..

kippy · 13-05-2015 4:14pm

aidankkk wrote: »

Paddy Power and Skybet, unfortunately i didnt know that when i put the bet up as id have taken advantage of that extra place.:mad:..

Thanks and thanks for the thread. Some great tips on it.

longshotvalue · 14-05-2015 5:04pm

York 5:20

Have to put up a last minute selection here that i forgot to post last night, and just realized it. I think Icon Dream could wel improve from his seasonal reappearance and has some decent form on good ground. He is of a workable mark and ill have to have a small min gamble at a huge 66/1

1/2 Point EW 66/1 Various

longshotvalue · 15-05-2015 5:34pm

Aintree 7:05

Sea Lord looks to have found a very decent opportunity here. He climbed the ladder very fast 2 years ago winning a series of summer good ground handicaps. His run this year in the Scottish County hurdle reads well enough as well as he looks to have been up against a couple of well handicapped horses there. He’s had a break and should be fitter after his last run about 3 weeks ago. The flat track 2m4f here should be right up his street, and 12/1 looks value. That said I think I will avoid the knockout handicap snip in waiting here Virgilio. On his day Sea Lord wouldn’t have anything to fear from the rest of there and 9/1 without the FAV here looks the bet to make.

1 Point win 9/1 Without Fav Betfair Sportsbook

Lt J.R. Bell · 15-05-2015 6:00pm

Anyone see the flat race at Newbury or Newmarket

Geogre Baker was ridding a Jamie Osborne trained horse owned by Rich Ricci. Bad start but did very very well to claim 3rd. 25/1 shot.

Might be worth keeping an eye on in the future. Decent run for a maiden

longshotvalue · 15-05-2015 7:11pm

aidankkk wrote: »

Aintree 7:05

Sea Lord looks to have found a very decent opportunity here. He climbed the ladder very fast 2 years ago winning a series of summer good ground handicaps. His run this year in the Scottish County hurdle reads well enough as well as he looks to have been up against a couple of well handicapped horses there. He’s had a break and should be fitter after his last run about 3 weeks ago. The flat track 2m4f here should be right up his street, and 12/1 looks value. That said I think I will avoid the knockout handicap snip in waiting here Virgilio. On his day Sea Lord wouldn’t have anything to fear from the rest of there and 9/1 without the FAV here looks the bet to make.

1 Point win 9/1 Without Fav Betfair Sportsbook

Lovely Great run

:D:D:D:D:D:D

Heroditas · 15-05-2015 7:25pm

aidankkk wrote: »

Lovely Great run :D:D:D:D:D:D

Urgh, missed it!

hullabulloo · 15-05-2015 7:32pm

Amazing stuff as always!

idnkph · 15-05-2015 7:42pm

I always look at this thread too late.... Grrrr. Aidenkkk you could pm these picks to me on a daily basis if you want. ðŸ˜Š

longshotvalue · 15-05-2015 9:34pm

4:15 Thirsk

A Fairly straightforward pick here is Gramercy. He ran well last time at Chester on his reappearance travelling well and probably not staying in the soft ground over 7 furlongs. Of this mark he is well capable of taking this race. He should strip fitter here and 20/1 with paddy power is a standout price that won’t last long

1 Point EW 20/1 Paddy Power

3:45 Newbury

I can’t remember a worse 1mile group 1 on decent ground. There isn’t 1 standout horse in this and I can’t have the favourite at the prices. It’s fairly clear that there is nothing between the top 4 in the betting but Toormore looks the definite value here. He won well on his debut last year and I’m pretty sure he’ll be ready for this. There shouldn’t be much in price between him and the fav Night of Thunder on last year’s runs. I’m also going to have a small saver bet on Cougar Mountain simply because he is the choice of the yard to go for this and his first run can be ignored. 25/1 is too big.

1 Point win Toormore 9/1 Various
½ Point win Cougar Mountain 25/1 Various

faoile@n · 15-05-2015 10:10pm

Ladbrokes are 25/1 with 4 places and 1/4 odds on the Lockinge...

longshotvalue · 15-05-2015 10:24pm

Newmarket 2:15

Chiberta King has been pretty poor on the AW lately but his turf form around here particularly is very strong and if he can recapture any of that at all he stands a decent chance here at a big price. It’s also possible he needs a bit further but that’s a risk worth taking at 20/1

½ Point Win 20/1 Various

longshotvalue · 16-05-2015 1:14pm

Auteuil 2:08

Willie Mullins has an unbelievable record in these races when he sends them over and my gut feeling is the market has the wrong one from him today. Gitane Du Berlais looks a soft ground horse and her record around here is decent but not great enough to be very short here, especially on good ground. I do like the look of his other runner Val DE Ferbet who although jumped poor last time out, has some very decent form and has Ruby on board today. 9/1 looks a few points too big

1 Point win 9/1 Generally Val DE Ferbet

gavindublin · 16-05-2015 2:25pm

Good man aidan.

I'm starting to like you as much as I like willie mullins ðŸ˜Š

Lt J.R. Bell · 16-05-2015 3:02pm

aidankkk wrote: »

Newmarket 2:15

Chiberta King has been pretty poor on the AW lately but his turf form around here particularly is very strong and if he can recapture any of that at all he stands a decent chance here at a big price. It’s also possible he needs a bit further but that’s a risk worth taking at 20/1

½ Point Win 20/1 Various

Had him too, praying for a return to 2013. Not a terrible run.

longshotvalue · 16-05-2015 4:25pm

Gramercy placed 3rd.. Probably a deduction fro the 20/1 advised as there was a few non runners.

A fair bit of hitting the goalpost today..:rolleyes:

longshotvalue · 17-05-2015 2:04pm

Navan 3:20

I’m going for a small bet for a bit on interest on an otherwise poor enough Sunday. Shipyard was supported last time out and didn’t perform but the slightly better ground here and 5 Furlongs should suit him judging by his very good big field performances at the Curragh last year of higher marks than this. 12/1 with Boyles is just about a big enough price for a bet.

1 Point win 12/1 Boyles 11/1 elsewhere

longshotvalue · 23-05-2015 10:06am

Haydock 2:00

Suegigo looked a stayer on the up in the Chester Cup and Northumberland place last year and had another few decent runs after of a higher mark than this. He had a reasonable seasonal opener over a trip too short and then disappointed the Chester Cup, but that race is a lottery at the best of times and he never got involved. I think he can show his true form here of this trip and looks a big price at 16/1. I’m also going with and old favourite of mine in Ill De Re who should come on from his first run this year and hasn’t run over this trip enough in the last year or so. There is a few bits of hope in some of those run while he has plummeted in the handicap and I wouldn’t be surprised if there was going to be a step up today. 50/1 looks superb value

1 Point win Suegioo 16/1 Various

1 Point EW 50/1 Ill De Re VC / Ladbrokes/Betfair

Haydock 3:45

Very easy pick here in Jack Dexter. There is nothing between a lot of these and in that case the best value easily is Jack at 18/1. He ran right up to form last time out and with a bit of cut in the ground here he won’t be far away. He generally runs over 6 furlongs but has a couple of very good runs in the Kings Stand to prove his Speed. He is around a 10/1 shot here really so 18/1 is a bargain.

1 Point win 18/1 VCBET

Goodwood 4:05

Grumeti gave a decent account of himself last time out on the flat over what was probably too short a trip on very fast ground. Today’s trip over 2 Furlongs further and on Good ground will bring him right into the action in what looks a weak enough affair for such a decent pot. He is 4lbs better of with the fav here on their last run and over this trip that indicates to me there won’t be much between them today. There is way too much of a difference in price here so the 12/1 about the selection is value.

1 Point win 12/1 Generally

Haydock 4:20

I thought to myself that’s the boat missed when my selection Gramercy just failed last week at 20/1, but I think he is value again here as the softer ground today will definitely suit him and he is surly on a good mark still.

1 Point win 12/1 Generally

longshotvalue · 23-05-2015 10:56am

Curragh 4:45

I’m afraid the price of Sole Power has gone past the point of lunacy. The fact that he is better at 5 furlongs is probably not in doubt but in fairness he hasn’t run that much at 6 and with his luck required in running in those group 1 sprints with big fields he has done ok. His 4 th in the Betfred Sprint Cup last year was a top class performance and he is possibly the only horse who could have got that close from the position he was in 2 furlongs out. Literally nothing went right and he stayed on as if the trip was certainly no problem. In this small field on decent ground I’m scratching my head at 5/1 especially after a top class performance in Dubai. He doesn’t even need to be at his best to stand a great chance here. Gordon Lord Byron obviously has the form to beat him at this trip but it’s his first run this year.

2 Points win 5/1 Bet365/Totesport/Fred

Deco99 · 23-05-2015 12:41pm

aidankkk wrote: »

Curragh 4:45

I’m afraid the price of Sole Power has gone past the point of lunacy. The fact that he is better at 5 furlongs is probably not in doubt but in fairness he hasn’t run that much at 6 and with his luck required in running in those group 1 sprints with big fields he has done ok. His 4 th in the Betfred Sprint Cup last year was a top class performance and he is possibly the only horse who could have got that close from the position he was in 2 furlongs out. Literally nothing went right and he stayed on as if the trip was certainly no problem. In this small field on decent ground I’m scratching my head at 5/1 especially after a top class performance in Dubai. He doesn’t even need to be at his best to stand a great chance here. Gordon Lord Byron obviously has the form to beat him at this trip but it’s his first run this year.

2 Points win 5/1 Bet365/Totesport/Fred

2.45

longshotvalue · 23-05-2015 4:00pm

Haydock 3:45

Very easy pick here in Jack Dexter. There is nothing between a lot of these and in that case the best value easily is Jack at 18/1. He ran right up to form last time out and with a bit of cut in the ground here he won’t be far away. He generally runs over 6 furlongs but has a couple of very good runs in the Kings Stand to prove his Speed. He is around a 10/1 shot here really so 18/1 is a bargain.

1 Point win 18/1 VCBET

i feel sick:(:(:(... Should have won, other horses getting in the way..

jousting with chairs · 23-05-2015 4:03pm

Very unlucky but great picking all the same.

qwabercd · 23-05-2015 4:17pm

aidankkk wrote: »

Haydock 3:45

Very easy pick here in Jack Dexter. There is nothing between a lot of these and in that case the best value easily is Jack at 18/1. He ran right up to form last time out and with a bit of cut in the ground here he won’t be far away. He generally runs over 6 furlongs but has a couple of very good runs in the Kings Stand to prove his Speed. He is around a 10/1 shot here really so 18/1 is a bargain.

1 Point win 18/1 VCBET

i feel sick:(:(:(... Should have won, other horses getting in the way..

Great pick but can't blame the other horses, always taking the risk when taking that route. Another few yards and he had it.

longshotvalue · 24-05-2015 3:09pm

Curragh 3:20

I think the market is wrong here with the difference between Al Kazeem and The Grey Gatsby. Al Kazeem doesn’t have to give the fav 7 lbs this year like last and will be better suited to the slightly softer ground than when the met last time. He has also run very well already this year behind Cirrus Des Aigles and looks the value here at 100/30. Postponed doesn’t look to be up to this yet and I don’t know how he is so short.

2 Points win 100/30 Boyles/lads/Betfair

ShaneU · 24-05-2015 3:25pm

Read that and the race had already started

longshotvalue · 24-05-2015 3:27pm

aidankkk wrote: »

Curragh 3:20

I think the market is wrong here with the difference between Al Kazeem and The Grey Gatsby. Al Kazeem doesn’t have to give the fav 7 lbs this year like last and will be better suited to the slightly softer ground than when the met last time. He has also run very well already this year behind Cirrus Des Aigles and looks the value here at 100/30. Postponed doesn’t look to be up to this yet and I don’t know how he is so short.

2 Points win 100/30 Boyles/lads/Betfair

Fecking Lovely , got home just in time to back that ...:D

longshotvalue · 24-05-2015 3:49pm

Curragh 3:55

I think Qualify may be a little underestimated here she has plenty of good form and although she was last in the UK equivalent it was her first run and she never got into it. Her run in the US last year was eye-catching in that she finished really well while being brought all over the track. If she isn’t used as a pacemaker here she might stand better chance than her odds indicate of getting involved. She worth a min bet anyway just in case.

½ Point EW 50/1 4 Places Bet365

longshotvalue · 25-05-2015 7:56am

3:55 Redcar

I’m going to go with the outsider of the field here Rebellious Guest. He wasn’t in the race at all last time out at Ascot but is now of a very low mark in comparison to the AW mark. In fairness it’s hard to find any reason to believe that he can transfer that form here but I’ll take the risk at 20/1. Even on the all-weather he is an in and out performer so a bit of sudden improvement today wouldn’t be out of character.

1 Point win 20/1 Generally

longshotvalue · 30-05-2015 10:31am

Poor enough days racing today with nothing really standing out so I’ll go with a couple of longshots for min bets.

York 2:55

It takes a bit of a leap of faith to think that Chilworth Icon might just have a small shout here but at 40/1 not much indication is needed. He is in here of a very low mark with a 7lbs claimer on and proved last year that 5 furlong’s was probably his best trip with a win at Sandown of a higher mark. He also ran well in the Portland after and although has been very poor this year it was the same last year until his win. At the price he looks a bit of value to like his very light weight here and get into the race and I’ll go for a min bet.

½ Point EW 40/1 Bet365 5 places

Newmarket 5:40

Sir Jack Layden was a decent 2yo who has struggled of too high a mark since but despite finishing well down the field from an outside draw last time out at york, I saw a little hope in that run and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he was to start to show a bit of form of a much reduced mark here. He is worth a min bet at 50/1 just in case

½ Point EW 50/1 Betfair Sportsbook

4:30 Newmarket

Mukmal started to look like he might be about to strike last time out here and in this weaker race getting the 3yo allowance he might just be the value getting load of weight from everything. He has shown enough a few times that a mark of 90 should be doable and I thought he would be shorter than 20/1. I’m also going to have a min bet on Hoof It at a big price , he should have needed his first run and if he improves from that he can get involved of this mark

1 Point win 20/1 Mukmal Generally

½ Point win 25/1 Hoof It Generally

Luap · 30-05-2015 12:45pm

Whats the thoughts of Blaine. Racing over 7f.

longshotvalue · 30-05-2015 1:23pm

Luap wrote: »

Whats the thoughts of Blaine. Racing over 7f.

Great chance and was my original pick for the race but he is the pricewise horse and the value was gone when i looked

jousting with chairs · 30-05-2015 4:33pm

Great shout on Mukmal, cheers

sdoc13 · 30-05-2015 4:34pm

aidankkk wrote: »

Poor enough days racing today with nothing really standing out so I’ll go with a couple of longshots for min bets.

York 2:55

It takes a bit of a leap of faith to think that Chilworth Icon might just have a small shout here but at 40/1 not much indication is needed. He is in here of a very low mark with a 7lbs claimer on and proved last year that 5 furlong’s was probably his best trip with a win at Sandown of a higher mark. He also ran well in the Portland after and although has been very poor this year it was the same last year until his win. At the price he looks a bit of value to like his very light weight here and get into the race and I’ll go for a min bet.

½ Point EW 40/1 Bet365 5 places

Newmarket 5:40

Sir Jack Layden was a decent 2yo who has struggled of too high a mark since but despite finishing well down the field from an outside draw last time out at york, I saw a little hope in that run and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he was to start to show a bit of form of a much reduced mark here. He is worth a min bet at 50/1 just in case

½ Point EW 50/1 Betfair Sportsbook

4:30 Newmarket

Mukmal started to look like he might be about to strike last time out here and in this weaker race getting the 3yo allowance he might just be the value getting load of weight from everything. He has shown enough a few times that a mark of 90 should be doable and I thought he would be shorter than 20/1. I’m also going to have a min bet on Hoof It at a big price , he should have needed his first run and if he improves from that he can get involved of this mark

1 Point win 20/1 Mukmal Generally

½ Point win 25/1 Hoof It Generally

BOOM. Get in ya beauty. Returned 25s superb picking as usual.

mickey1979 · 30-05-2015 4:34pm

Well done his in my lucky 15

Starscream25 · 30-05-2015 4:34pm

Get in there mukmal, Aidan you are a legend, have only started following recently but have already made a tidy profit because of you,cheers.

longshotvalue · 30-05-2015 4:35pm

[QUOTE
4:30 Newmarket

Mukmal[/I][/B] started to look like he might be about to strike last time out here and in this weaker race getting the 3yo allowance he might just be the value getting load of weight from everything. He has shown enough a few times that a mark of 90 should be doable and I thought he would be shorter than 20/1. I’m also going to have a min bet on Hoof It at a big price , he should have needed his first run and if he improves from that he can get involved of this mark

1 Point win 20/1 Mukmal Generally

½ Point win 25/1 Hoof It Generally[/QUOTE]

:D:D:D:D:D:D Cant believe the Drift....

Neon_Lights · 30-05-2015 4:44pm

Started following, placed bet on mukhmal, 40 to one on betfair exchange get in

madmoose · 30-05-2015 4:52pm

Thanks as per aid, my mate at haydock had that for 3/4 in a lucky15 for 1500!!! Great scenes here at haydock

Relyod5454 · 30-05-2015 4:58pm

thanks Aidan some superb picking!

hurleronditch · 30-05-2015 4:59pm

aidankkk wrote: »

[QUOTE
4:30 Newmarket

Mukmal[/I][/B] started to look like he might be about to strike last time out here and in this weaker race getting the 3yo allowance he might just be the value getting load of weight from everything. He has shown enough a few times that a mark of 90 should be doable and I thought he would be shorter than 20/1. I’m also going to have a min bet on Hoof It at a big price , he should have needed his first run and if he improves from that he can get involved of this mark

1 Point win 20/1 Mukmal Generally

½ Point win 25/1 Hoof It Generally

:D:D:D:D:D:D Cant believe the Drift....[/quote]

I'll tell you in 45 minutes whether it was madness or not but I didn't do a single on him, doubled him with Jack Leyden. About 3k if it lands, didly squat if not!!

jousting with chairs · 30-05-2015 5:02pm

Sweat on here as well, did €5 e/w on both and a €2.50 e/w dbl >.<

minibear · 31-05-2015 10:23am

aidankkk wrote: »

[QUOTE
4:30 Newmarket

Mukmal[/I][/B] started to look like he might be about to strike last time out here and in this weaker race getting the 3yo allowance he might just be the value getting load of weight from everything. He has shown enough a few times that a mark of 90 should be doable and I thought he would be shorter than 20/1. I’m also going to have a min bet on Hoof It at a big price , he should have needed his first run and if he improves from that he can get involved of this mark

1 Point win 20/1 Mukmal Generally

½ Point win 25/1 Hoof It Generally

:D:D:D:D:D:D Cant believe the Drift....[/QUOTE]

Can't believe I missed this post. I've been following your tips for ages but was busy all day yesterday and didn't see it.

great tipping!

longshotvalue · 01-06-2015 12:19pm

Derby Ante-post

I’ve been waiting to see what the stable did as regards Gleneagles and as he’s not running now I’m happy to have a bet NRNB on Giovanni Canaletto. I thought he looked good on his seasonal reappearance and with the given improvement as per usual from that stable 16/1 looks a very decent price. The French Derby yesterday was a perfect example of this with a very good 2nd, and I think it’s significant that they haven’t supplemented anything here.

1 Point win 16/1 Paddy Power NRNB

madmoose · 01-06-2015 1:47pm

I agree with this he will come on leaps and bounds for this and stays well, who will moore be on?

madmoose · 02-06-2015 5:33pm

Moore confirmed hence the plunge today now around 6/1 from 16/1!!

krustydoyle · 02-06-2015 5:48pm

madmoose wrote: »

Moore confirmed hence the plunge today now around 6/1 from 16/1!!

Im happy with the 14's i got so.. I knew well the arse would fall out of the value when i heard the confirmation earlier.

02-06-2015 6:11pm

Jeez I meant to back this yesterday at 14's. Missed the boat but managed 8-1

100 Bets to Broke Flat Season

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