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Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

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Comments

  • #3002
    Beechwoodspark
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,847 ✭✭✭✭Beechwoodspark


    Most anyone I know has actively shunned air travel since this whole thing started. And no desire to resume air travel even after a vaccine.


  • #3003
    Credit Checker Moose
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,226 ✭✭✭Credit Checker Moose


    Good for them.


  • #3004
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 2,827 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Beechwoodspark wrote: »
    Most anyone I know has actively shunned air travel since this whole thing started. And no desire to resume air travel even after a vaccine.
    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=110970253&postcount=2144
    You want to see Aviation here and everywhere destroyed irrespective of whether there is a pandemic or not. Your comments count for zip.


  • #3005
    LawBoy2018
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,162 ✭✭✭LawBoy2018


    Have there been any studies done re the reduction in emissions due to the aviation industry essentially being put into hibernation? Should be interesting.


  • #3006
    Inquitus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,762 ✭✭✭✭Inquitus


    Deleted User wrote: »
    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=110970253&postcount=2144
    You want to see Aviation here and everywhere destroyed irrespective of whether there is a pandemic or not. Your comments count for zip.

    I think the major impact that may become apparent, once things hopefully return to normal soon, is whether businesses will travel to the extent they have done in the past, video conferencing has shown itself, due to necessity, to work well and allow businesses to continue to operate at a high level without the requirement of constant face to face meetings. If business travel never returns to pre-covid levels it will make a huge dent in airlines ability to fill business and first class cabins with premium paying fares, and likely also cause a rise in the price of economy fares to compensate. Have any airlines mentioned if they expect business travel revenues to recover to pre-covid levels, or give any indication that this revenue stream could be seriously dented in coming years?


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  • #3007
    L1011
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 69,542 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    Deleted User wrote: »
    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=110970253&postcount=2144
    You want to see Aviation here and everywhere destroyed irrespective of whether there is a pandemic or not. Your comments count for zip.

    Beechwoodspark has been instructed not to bring emissions/flight taxation/flight bans in to threads not specifically on that subject - on the reverse, please don't bring their older posts on that in to said threads either


  • #3008
    LawBoy2018
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,162 ✭✭✭LawBoy2018


    The real question is, what will happen to the regional airports? Without Ryanair they cease to exist.


  • #3009
    titan18
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,009 ✭✭✭✭titan18


    Inquitus wrote: »
    I think the major impact that may become apparent, once things hopefully return to normal soon, is whether businesses will travel to the extent they have done in the past, video conferencing has shown itself, due to necessity, to work well and allow businesses to continue to operate at a high level without the requirement of constant face to face meetings. If business travel never returns to pre-covid levels it will make a huge dent in airlines ability to fill business and first class cabins with premium paying fares, and likely also cause a rise in the price of economy fares to compensate. Have any airlines mentioned if they expect business travel revenues to recover to pre-covid levels, or give any indication that this revenue stream could be seriously dented in coming years?

    Ya, that's going to take a while to come back and I doubt ever does come back to the way it was. Leisure travel will pick up and likely pick up very fast when people have confidence in travelling. Business travel might never be the same


  • #3010
    bk
    Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 22,985 Mod ✭✭✭✭bk


    Beechwoodspark wrote: »
    Most anyone I know has actively shunned air travel since this whole thing started. And no desire to resume air travel even after a vaccine.

    I certainly hope not and I rather doubt it.

    Purely anecdotal, but I can't wait to get back flying again when it is save to do so. Lots of friends in other countries who I can't wait to see and I'm completely missing a proper relaxing summer holiday in actual sun!

    I also feel terrible for all the people in the aviation and related industries, how their lives have been impacted and hopefully it will return to semi normality before too long.

    Though I do agree that business travel will be very slow to return to normal and possibly might never be the same again.


  • #3011
    LawBoy2018
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,162 ✭✭✭LawBoy2018


    bk wrote: »
    I certainly hope not and I rather doubt it.

    Purely anecdotal, but I can't wait to get back flying again when it is save to do so. Lots of friends in other countries who I can't wait to see and I'm completely missing a proper relaxing summer holiday in actual sun!

    I also feel terrible for all the people in the aviation and related industries, how their lives have been impacted and hopefully it will return to semi normality before too long.

    Though I do agree that business travel will be very slow to return to normal and possibly might never be the same again.

    So long as travel expenses are tax deductible, business travel will be a thing. The large companies that previously splashed out on business class tickets for their employees don't care about the cost associated with travel. It'll take a while but things will bounce back.

    However, if we lose any more of the 'low fare' airlines, we could see a sharp decline in travel for leisure as the lack of competition will drive up the price of tickets, making holidays more unaffordable for low income families.


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  • #3012
    MrMusician18
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,591 ✭✭✭MrMusician18


    Beechwoodspark wrote: »
    Most anyone I know has actively shunned air travel since this whole thing started. And no desire to resume air travel even after a vaccine.
    Almost everyone I know has avoided air travel since the middle of March, however most people I know miss travelling terribly and are looking forward to flying away as soon as it's safe. Some have even told me they intend to fly away next Summer regardless of the covid situation but one hopes that it will be resolved by then. I think the reality check a lot of us passengers are missing is the question around affordability. Will air fares still be reasonable when supply of seats is constrained, pent up demand for leisure travel is unleashed, and a potential lack of business/premium cross subsidy?
    Inquitus wrote: »
    I think the major impact that may become apparent, once things hopefully return to normal soon, is whether businesses will travel to the extent they have done in the past, video conferencing has shown itself, due to necessity, to work well and allow businesses to continue to operate at a high level without the requirement of constant face to face meetings. If business travel never returns to pre-covid levels it will make a huge dent in airlines ability to fill business and first class cabins with premium paying fares, and likely also cause a rise in the price of economy fares to compensate. Have any airlines mentioned if they expect business travel revenues to recover to pre-covid levels, or give any indication that this revenue stream could be seriously dented in coming years?
    I've mentioned something similar previously. If the premium market doesn't return then many of the flag carriers business model is in trouble. If the pandemic has shown is anything, it's that business travel is largely not required and is an inefficiency.


  • #3013
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 2,827 ✭ [Deleted User]


    I've got a number of flights booked and I'll be moving them around to exploit the lifting of lockdown whenever that happens. If I have to get antigen tests the day before flights I'll be doing it. I like many can't wait to get back in to the air to meet friends and family.


  • #3014
    Inquitus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,762 ✭✭✭✭Inquitus


    Deleted User wrote: »
    I've got a number of flights booked and I'll be moving them around to exploit the lifting of lockdown whenever that happens. If I have to get antigen tests the day before flights I'll be doing it. I like many can't wait to get back in to the air to meet friends and family.

    A private PCR test costs up to €200, that's a significant additional expense on top of fares, hotels etc. While an individual may be happy to pay for the PCR test, it is a huge barrier to the return of families to the air, for my wife and our 3 kids you are looking at up to €1000 to get all of us tested, that's simply prohibitively expensive for a large percentage of the population to consider, €1000 euro is likely more than the cost of flights to anywhere in Europe, and a huge additional cost for a holiday.

    So as I say if it were just me I might well consider paying such an additional expense, as like most of us I enjoy travel, exploring new countries and places etc. But for the large family holiday segment of the market it is likely to put a serious dent in airline revenues as families simply will not pay such a large additional cost for a holiday!


  • #3015
    MrMusician18
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,591 ✭✭✭MrMusician18


    LawBoy2018 wrote: »
    So long as travel expenses are tax deductible, business travel will be a thing. The large companies that previously splashed out on business class tickets for their employees don't care about the cost associated with travel. It'll take a while but things will bounce back.

    However, if we lose any more of the 'low fare' airlines, we could see a sharp decline in travel for leisure as the lack of competition will drive up the price of tickets, making holidays more unaffordable for low income families.
    The problem for business is not the cost of travel but the loss of efficiency. It was recently believed in many corporates that video conferencing was the poor third relation of face-to-face meetings but the technology is so good now that it is a close second.
    I would travel a lot for work (domestically), a meeting in Cork one day, Galway the next. Now we have the meetings on Zoom, all on the one day, leaving the rest of the week for getting stuff done. I can only imagine what business might see now as the amount of valuable executive time waste through travel.


  • #3016
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 2,827 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Inquitus wrote: »
    A private PCR test costs ....
    Moving the goalposts there. Antigen test fine by me for 10 to 20 euro and PCR tests in Germany are lower than your scaremongering claims at 128 to 147 euro. https://www.jumpradio.de/thema/freiwillige-coronatests-wo-machen-kosten-100.html...anyhow the E.U. want to pay for 22 million antigen tests to free up travel in the E.U. https://www.airliners.de/eu-22-millionen-antigen-schnelltests/57925


  • #3017
    LawBoy2018
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,162 ✭✭✭LawBoy2018


    MrMusician18 wrote: »
    The problem for business is not the cost of travel but the loss of efficiency. It was recently believed in many corporates that video conferencing was the poor third relation of face-to-face meetings but the technology is so good now that it is a close second.
    I would travel a lot for work (domestically), a meeting in Cork one day, Galway the next. Now we have the meetings on Zoom, all on the one day, leaving the rest of the week for getting stuff done. I can only imagine what business might see now as the amount of valuable executive time waste through travel.

    I take your point but the main reason why the large corporate firms in Dublin send their executives abroad is for them to make contacts. Travelling domestically isn't really comparable imo. Our whole department is being flown out to Asia next year for a one day seminar. (all going well obv)


  • #3018
    Inquitus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,762 ✭✭✭✭Inquitus


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Moving the goalposts there. Antigen test fine by me for 10 to 20 euro and PCR tests in Germany are lower than your scaremongering claims at 128 to 147 euro. https://www.jumpradio.de/thema/freiwillige-coronatests-wo-machen-kosten-100.html...anyhow the E.U. want to pay for 22 million antigen tests to free up travel in the E.U. https://www.airliners.de/eu-22-millionen-antigen-schnelltests/57925

    Only PCR tests are currently accepted for travel (this may change) and the tests generally need to be taken before you leave unless you want to wait for results in your country of arrival while potentially impacted by quarantine rules. Costs of the test in Ireland are more expensive than in Germany, so I am not scaremongering, just highlighting how much they cost here and the fact that in most cases people would need to have one in their departure country within 48 hours of flying rather than waste days in quarantine on arrival waiting for a test result to arrive.

    This may change if rapid antigen tests are approved, but they are less accurate, and have not been approved yet! Airlines are obviously keen on them and making plenty of optimistic claims, but approval will be done on medical grounds not on airlines wishes.


  • #3019
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 2,827 ✭ [Deleted User]


    As the Irish Government has gone to pains in court of law to claim their directions are only guidance and if Germany allows antigen tests which seems certain then I'm flying to Ireland with my clear antigen test results.


  • #3020
    Calina
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Calina


    MrMusician18 wrote: »
    The problem for business is not the cost of travel but the loss of efficiency. It was recently believed in many corporates that video conferencing was the poor third relation of face-to-face meetings but the technology is so good now that it is a close second.
    I would travel a lot for work (domestically), a meeting in Cork one day, Galway the next. Now we have the meetings on Zoom, all on the one day, leaving the rest of the week for getting stuff done. I can only imagine what business might see now as the amount of valuable executive time waste through travel.

    My experience is exactly the opposite to yours. The meetings are not all on one day and there are metric tonnes more of them because informal chats are out the window. I don't see incessant video conferencing as an efficient use of time and most people i know who travelled use the time for disturbance free work. Not sure what you do that enables you to schedule all meetings on one day but it is certainly not viable for everyone.

    On the leisure travel front, I have flights booked for Christmas but given the situation where I live, I cannot see myself using them.


  • #3021
    MadYaker
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,268 ✭✭✭✭MadYaker


    Cookiemunster wrote: »
    True, but it took the court case to make the government admit to the above. They were happy enough to let the populace believe the misconception that travel was actually banned until then.

    Most people aren’t that stupid and understood that travel isn’t banned. People have been travelling for important reasons it’s not as if nobody has flown anywhere in the last few months. People just don’t want to do it during a pandemic unless they have to.


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  • #3022
    Captain_Crash
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,814 ✭✭✭Captain_Crash


    MrMusician18 wrote: »
    The problem for business is not the cost of travel but the loss of efficiency. It was recently believed in many corporates that video conferencing was the poor third relation of face-to-face meetings but the technology is so good now that it is a close second.
    I would travel a lot for work (domestically), a meeting in Cork one day, Galway the next. Now we have the meetings on Zoom, all on the one day, leaving the rest of the week for getting stuff done. I can only imagine what business might see now as the amount of valuable executive time waste through travel.

    Before covid my company (large MNC) would have had dozens of not hundreds of execs traveling the globe, and the powers that be have been quite open that they intend this to return fairly quickly once things start moving again. I can’t imagine we’re the only company with this thinking! There is only so much that can be done on a zoom call.


  • #3023
    trellheim
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,964 ✭✭✭trellheim


    Until the light clears re vaccines, testing and insurance I can't see things changing much. I've no wish to be sick in Chicago or Orlando without insurance. I want to be back on the beach in Spain but it has to be right, I love travel but this is bigger than all that.


  • #3024
    Noxegon
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,559 ✭✭✭Noxegon


    MadYaker wrote: »
    Most people aren’t that stupid

    Government advice is not to travel.

    Travel insurance is invalid.

    Employers requiring those travelling to take unpaid leave.

    Travel regarded as the bogeyman in the media.

    I guess I'm stupid by your definition.

    I develop Superior Solitaire when I'm not procrastinating on boards.ie.



  • #3025
    Cookiemunster
    Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 12,186 Mod ✭✭✭✭Cookiemunster


    trellheim wrote: »
    Until the light clears re vaccines, testing and insurance I can't see things changing much. I've no wish to be sick in Chicago or Orlando without insurance. I want to be back on the beach in Spain but it has to be right, I love travel but this is bigger than all that.

    What ever about the US, your EHIC card will cover you right across the EU, no matter what the government say about travel insurance.


  • #3026
    Van.Bosch
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,927 ✭✭✭Van.Bosch


    I don’t think anyone disputes the absolute devastation this virus has caused to the aviation and tourism sectors. What do people think we will see for Irish Aviation throughout 2021?

    I think we will see:
    -EI will carry about 3-4 non pax in 2021
    -TATL will have half the frequencies it had in 2018
    - SNN will have one TATL route at most for the summer only.
    - the government will delay the traffic light system but will eventually remove the do not travel guidance.
    - a new provider will win the EI regional contract.


    Any other guesses?


  • #3027
    trellheim
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,964 ✭✭✭trellheim


    What ever about the US, your EHIC card will cover you right across the EU, no matter what the government say about travel insurance

    I am well aware of this. However, EU Healthcare is operating with a focus towards COVID all across Europe so your experience may be very different except perhaps for genuine emergencies look at the news ffs.

    Most of our neighbours have announced ramped-up quarantine these last two weeks. If you booked and paid in advance, thats money you cant claim back because... no insurance.

    As for TATL resuming with the USA in a jocker on COVID I can't see it without decent testing regime which is just plain not there at the moment and a 14-day quarantine, while enabling essential travel, is not a basis for business or tourism travel.


  • #3028
    Nermal
    Registered Users Posts: 2,703 ✭✭✭Nermal


    Anyone aware of a travel insurance product that DOES offer cover, despite government advice?


  • #3029
    goingnowhere
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,206 ✭✭✭goingnowhere


    Nermal wrote: »
    Anyone aware of a travel insurance product that DOES offer cover, despite government advice?

    Large corporates will likely have arrangements for travel required for business continuance.

    I'd be more worried about what the Embassy will do if you need help


  • #3030
    Dublinflyer
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 600 ✭✭✭Dublinflyer


    MrMusician18 wrote: »
    The problem for business is not the cost of travel but the loss of efficiency. It was recently believed in many corporates that video conferencing was the poor third relation of face-to-face meetings but the technology is so good now that it is a close second.
    I would travel a lot for work (domestically), a meeting in Cork one day, Galway the next. Now we have the meetings on Zoom, all on the one day, leaving the rest of the week for getting stuff done. I can only imagine what business might see now as the amount of valuable executive time waste through travel.

    Video Conf works well for a very certain set of tasks, project updates, one to one meetings, small weekly team updates and that kind of thing. But I work for a large telecoms provider and we do a lot of software dev work as well where the teams are constantly coming up with new ways of doing things and products. You will never have the same creative conversation on video as you will have in a room.

    I manage a team of about 100 people and like a lot of places we have almost been in a holding pattern for the past 7 months but things need to start moving again, we need to start innovating again and need to move the business on. It's been widely accepted in my company that face to face meetings are needed to get people in the same room and coming up with new things. VC has come on a huge amount but the real difference Covid has made is that people are better at using it but you still get a small group of people who are very vocal on the calls and some get left behind as a result, that's just human nature. It's all the little side conversations that happen where ideas really flow, again not possible when people are in their kitchens.

    I can only speak for where I work but while travel will not be the same level as before, in fairness it was ridiculous in my company, it has been accepted from the top down that we will be moving about once it's safer to do so whenever that will be. That's not going to be the same in every place but you will find that companies that are freer with the travel restrictions especially for the likes of sales people will be doing a little better.


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  • #3031
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 2,827 ✭ [Deleted User]


    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/02/ryanair-earnings-q2-2020.html
    2min25 in to the video clip: Michael O'Leary talking about pent up demand with hard numbers/details of how bookings go up when locations are added to Green List. His example was the Canaries/UK


  • #3032
    billy few mates
    Registered Users Posts: 6,920 ✭✭✭billy few mates


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/02/ryanair-earnings-q2-2020.html
    2min25 in to the video clip: Michael O'Leary talking about pent up demand with hard numbers/details of how bookings go up when locations are added to Green List. His example was the Canaries/UK

    You lost me at Michael O'Leary...


  • #3033
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 2,827 ✭ [Deleted User]


    billy few mates wrote: »
    You lost me at Michael O'Leary...
    Well then that is your loss, isn't it.


  • #3034
    HTCOne
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 893 ✭✭✭HTCOne


    billy few mates wrote: »
    You lost me at Michael O'Leary...

    In fairness, people need to separate the personality and PR spin from the business man, he wouldn’t be where he is, and Ryanair wouldn’t be what they are if he didn’t know his stuff. WW and himself are well worth listening to. They are right up there with Ed Bastian and Gary Kelly as the global gurus of aviation. Tim Clarke lost a bit of shine in recent years. Mueller is still highly respected too.


  • #3035
    ProfessorPlum
    Registered Users Posts: 1,812 ✭✭✭ProfessorPlum


    Deleted User wrote: »
    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/02/ryanair-earnings-q2-2020.html
    2min25 in to the video clip: Michael O'Leary talking about pent up demand with hard numbers/details of how bookings go up when locations are added to Green List. His example was the Canaries/UK

    I think there is huge ‘pent up demand’. Almost everyone is missing travel (maybe not all business travel - a lot of that is gone forever), but many people are still not prepared to travel in this environment. Even if all restrictions were lifted tomorrow, there’s a large cohort of people who wouldn’t be comfortable travelling.
    But there are still restrictions - more of them as the virus surges again, so the prospect of a ‘green list’ having any meaningful impact on numbers in the near future is remote I think.
    Winter will be bleak. The best we can hope for is that airlines will break even next summer. And if they don’t, it’s hard to see them survive.
    There’s some comfort in not seeing the rise in deaths quite mirroring the rise in case numbers - that’s probably a reflection on much more testing now than earlier in the pandemic, so more people with mild/no symptoms are adding to the numbers, but will never be in hospitalisation/death stats. Together with a vaccine, that might give people confidence to travel next year. I honestly don’t think I’ll see the lofty ambitions of 2019 before the end of my career - or to be more correct - if my airline are one of the lucky ones still standing when the dust settles.


  • #3036
    billy few mates
    Registered Users Posts: 6,920 ✭✭✭billy few mates


    HTCOne wrote: »
    Ryanair wouldn’t be what they are if he didn’t know his stuff. WW and himself are well worth listening to....

    Yeah but maybe not for travel advice in the middle of a global pandemic...


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  • #3037
    MrMusician18
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,591 ✭✭✭MrMusician18


    ProfessorPlum wrote: »
    I think there is huge ‘pent up demand’. Almost everyone is missing travel (maybe not all business travel - a lot of that is gone forever), but many people are still not prepared to travel in this environment. Even if all restrictions were lifted tomorrow, there’s a large cohort of people who wouldn’t be comfortable travelling.
    But there are still restrictions - more of them as the virus surges again, so the prospect of a ‘green list’ having any meaningful impact on numbers in the near future is remote I think.
    Winter will be bleak. The best we can hope for is that airlines will break even next summer. And if they don’t, it’s hard to see them survive.
    There’s some comfort in not seeing the rise in deaths quite mirroring the rise in case numbers - that’s probably a reflection on much more testing now than earlier in the pandemic, so more people with mild/no symptoms are adding to the numbers, but will never be in hospitalisation/death stats. Together with a vaccine, that might give people confidence to travel next year. I honestly don’t think I’ll see the lofty ambitions of 2019 before the end of my career - or to be more correct - if my airline are one of the lucky ones still standing when the dust settles.

    I don't have the numbers that O'Leary had access to but my gut feeling would suggest he is correct. As soon as it's safe, there will be a flood away on holidays. A leisure focussed airline with deep pockets, like Ryanair, will be best poised to capitalise on the opportunities 2021 present. If there is the vaccine that we all hope for.

    I know others above have mentioned how their companies plan to take to the skies once again after the pandemic has ended and I believe business will of course fly again - just not at the same volume and this will be the challenge for the older brands like BA. The reason is that premium seats are responsible for over half of these airlines revenue - so changes in demand in this segment get amplified.

    One poster above said that their company has started to tread water effectively due to the lack of travel but I would certainly think that is the minority. The same happened in our organisation i.e. it somewhat stalled in late March/April but the new reality and systems were established and working by May and business has largely gone back to normal sans travel. I cannot see the old way of working ever returning completely


  • #3038
    trellheim
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,964 ✭✭✭trellheim


    I cannot see the old way of working ever returning completely
    Make no mistake there will be a massive surge on to get people back travelling. Many industries depend on it.

    Without insurance though all bar the least risky trips will not go ahead though. Imagine taking a family to Orlando and the theme parks without insurance ; any coronavirus cancellations are not claimable under 261 and without insurance its all out of your own pocket with many hotels closed.


  • #3039
    MrMusician18
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,591 ✭✭✭MrMusician18


    trellheim wrote: »
    Make no mistake there will be a massive surge on to get people back travelling. Many industries depend on it.

    Without insurance though all bar the least risky trips will not go ahead though. Imagine taking a family to Orlando and the theme parks without insurance ; any coronavirus cancellations are not claimable under 261 and without insurance its all out of your own pocket with many hotels closed.
    Lots of industry doors indeed depend on travel, but as I've said before it was once thought that a lot of other business needed travel to enable their business - say pharma manufacturing.

    While it is true that business will obviously need to return to some travel, the prevailing idea that all travel that was previously undertaken was necessary has been blown out of the water. The manager from London doesn't need to make that trip to the plant in Cork to meet people or the team as much anymore. Business will see that as an expense to be trimmed and and the time lost as efficiency to be gained.

    There is no going back, to think otherwise is wishful imo. The fastest to adapt to this will be the ones that thrive - and those that don't focus on premium and have cash would be best placed imo.


  • #3040
    HTCOne
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 893 ✭✭✭HTCOne


    I'm absolutely chomping at the bit to get travelling again. As soon as restrictions are eased, I'm outta here! Several times! Everyone I've had interactions with on the subject has said the same thing. I just hope there's enough if an industry left to cater.


  • #3041
    opinionated3
    Registered Users Posts: 2,154 ✭✭✭opinionated3


    Tony holohan telling us all today, via the government, to forget about travel in the near future. It's incredible how many jobs nphet are willing to jeopardize/lose forever over this great fear of overrun hospitals. I think 2021 is going to be disastrous for our industry. I'm losing hope daily that our facility will survive despite all the cost cutting that had taken place since this started.


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  • #3042
    Dublinflyer
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 600 ✭✭✭Dublinflyer


    opinionated3 wrote: »
    Tony holohan telling us all today, via the government, to forget about travel in the near future. It's incredible how many jobs nphet are willing to jeopardize/lose forever over this great fear of overrun hospitals. I think 2021 is going to be disastrous for our industry. I'm losing hope daily that our facility will survive despite all the cost cutting that had taken place since this started.

    And this is exactly why the government need to get their aviation, and travel generally, house in order. People are going to come home for Christmas by any way they can. Tony can sit there and say what he wants but there is nothing stopping people from coming into the country once they say that they are going to isolate for 2 weeks and we all know that's not going to happen. I think they are being a bit naive if they think anyone is going to listen to travel advise for Christmas day. We have all had a $h1t year between isolation, losing jobs and everything else. Everyone will want to be around family and friends on Dec 25th so the sooner they realise that and plan for it the better.


  • #3043
    MrMusician18
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,591 ✭✭✭MrMusician18


    Dublinflyer wrote: »
    And this is exactly why the government need to get their aviation, and travel generally, house in order. People are going to come home for Christmas by any way they can. Tony can sit there and say what he wants but there is nothing stopping people from coming into the country once they say that they are going to isolate for 2 weeks and we all know that's not going to happen. I think they are being a bit naive if they think anyone is going to listen to travel advise for Christmas day. We have all had a $h1t year between isolation, losing jobs and everything else. Everyone will want to be around family and friends on Dec 25th so the sooner they realise that and plan for it the better.

    What do you mean by get their house in order? Is it just cave to the demands of the travel sector?

    Yes we've all had a **** year, but one sure way of making 2021 starts **** as well is to ignore the public health advice at Christmas.


  • #3044
    opinionated3
    Registered Users Posts: 2,154 ✭✭✭opinionated3


    MrMusician18 wrote: »
    What do you mean by get their house in order? Is it just cave to the demands of the travel sector?

    Yes we've all had a **** year, but one sure way of making 2021 starts **** as well is to ignore the public health advice at Christmas.

    But what's the solution? They've already more or less admitted we'll probably be back in full lockdown again by February...... Which means more catastrophic job losses in aviation as well as other industries. It's easy for holohan to pontificate.... His job is well paid and safe. What happened to the living with covid plan? Cos what's going on at the moment is just existing with restrictions.....I certainly wouldn't call it living.


  • #3045
    Tenzor07
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,999 ✭✭✭Tenzor07


    Dublinflyer wrote: »
    And this is exactly why the government need to get their aviation, and travel generally, house in order. People are going to come home for Christmas by any way they can. Tony can sit there and say what he wants but there is nothing stopping people from coming into the country once they say that they are going to isolate for 2 weeks and we all know that's not going to happen. I think they are being a bit naive if they think anyone is going to listen to travel advise for Christmas day. We have all had a $h1t year between isolation, losing jobs and everything else. Everyone will want to be around family and friends on Dec 25th so the sooner they realise that and plan for it the better.

    Flights should ramp up from 14th December to get people home for Christmas and allow people to come back to see family they haven't seen all year.

    Holohan definitely won't be easing restrictions for Travel anytime soon, will be lucky if the current Level 5 will be eased by then..
    While NPHETs policy won't change people will still come home to Ireland for the holidays and others will leave, probably not to return...


  • #3046
    Dublinflyer
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 600 ✭✭✭Dublinflyer


    MrMusician18 wrote: »
    What do you mean by get their house in order? Is it just cave to the demands of the travel sector?

    Yes we've all had a **** year, but one sure way of making 2021 starts **** as well is to ignore the public health advice at Christmas.

    I mean that they ned to come up with a clear plan and actually stick with it, the living with covid plan is a prime example of the confusion they are causing. A really good 5 level plan was devised, in fairness it was really clear and gave people an idea of where we were going and a stepped approach for living with this. The idea being as things got better or worse we move up or down a level. Literally the day after it comes out they start mixing up parts of the 5 stages and caused mass confusion. It's the same for aviation, one of the biggest concerns everyone has is the lack of any idea where this is moving and they might end up with a cancelled flight of having to isolate for 2 weeks.

    As for ignoring the advise, I think people have had enough and are tired of it. You are right in that we will set ourselves up for failure in the new year but it's going to happen anyway. It does not help when you have a certain cohort of people protesting and almost assaulting people for wearing masks on the Luas and getting away with it. Let's enforce the rules, the general public would support that but it's not happening right now.


  • #3047
    MrMusician18
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,591 ✭✭✭MrMusician18


    opinionated3 wrote: »
    But what's the solution? They've already more or less admitted we'll probably be back in full lockdown again by February...... Which means more catastrophic job losses in aviation as well as other industries. It's easy for holohan to pontificate.... His job is well paid and safe. What happened to the living with covid plan? Cos what's going on at the moment is just existing with restrictions.....I certainly wouldn't call it living.
    Those that are calling for an alternative way need to propose the solution. And before it's mentioned, rapid antigen tests are not a solution at the moment because they fall to detect asymptomatic and presymptomatic cases.
    Instead of pulling against the measures, everyone impacted should be pulling with, pulling to get us back to orange and green so travel can resume.


  • #3048
    opinionated3
    Registered Users Posts: 2,154 ✭✭✭opinionated3


    But what are nphets parameters for allowing travel? What are the exact numbers/stats required so that, for example, my wife and I could go to, say, Portugal on a two week holiday, and return home and go to work as normal? They aren't able to define that and therein lies the essential problem for aviation. I won't book any flights anywhere whilst believing I may have to complete a 14 day quarantine when I come home. That's just not realistic or doable for most working people.


  • #3049
    MrMusician18
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,591 ✭✭✭MrMusician18


    opinionated3 wrote: »
    But what are nphets parameters for allowing travel? What are the exact numbers/stats required so that, for example, my wife and I could go to, say, Portugal on a two week holiday, and return home and go to work as normal? They aren't able to define that and therein lies the essential problem for aviation. I won't book any flights anywhere whilst believing I may have to complete a 14 day quarantine when I come home. That's just not realistic or doable for most working people.

    NPHET don't set policy, they only advise Government. The numbers that permit travel are the incidence/1000 in the country you are coming from and the country you are travelling to. With green and orange levels, as per the traffic light system, travel can reopen.

    Government cannot give the certainty you require because it is not possible. They do not know what the situation is going to be like with any certainty in this country at any point in the future, let alone the kind of horizons needed to plan and book a holiday. The same goes for any country you might travel to.

    Some on the forum think seen to think these issues are unique to Ireland, that it's our governments incompetence that's the cause of this. This is rather strange in an aviation forum, which should have a more global perspective than most. These are the challenges that every country faces. Every country is trying to square public health needs with what are largely public travel desires.

    Just because this is unpalatable doesn't make it any less true.


  • #3050
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 2,827 ✭ [Deleted User]


    MrMusician18 wrote: »
    Those that are calling for an alternative way need to propose the solution. And before it's mentioned, rapid antigen tests are not a solution at the moment because they fall to detect asymptomatic and presymptomatic cases.
    antigen tests are a very legitimate solution when there is slack w.r.t. ICU spaces in Hospitals.
    You seem to be intent on deflecting from the Health Service's adject inability to deliver sufficient ICU spaces.


  • #3051
    gral6
    Registered Users Posts: 715 ✭✭✭gral6


    I wish Tony 'd just ...uck off... He' should be held to accounts for his dramatic failure with cervical cancer and attempts to cover it up...


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