Scottish independence

Water John · 22-10-2019 3:24pm

The Tories just, borrowed them. They'll be handing them back soon.
It will be strange for a country to be possibly governed by a political party or similar minded one, with no elected members of Parliament, in that country.

bob mcbob · 22-10-2019 4:48pm

Aegir wrote: »

ten of the thirteen seats they lost at the last election?

Yes thats right - they are on track for 45+ seats out of 59.
Not bad for a party losing support right, left and centre.

I also don't think your point about "blind nationalism" really stands up.
I think most Scots recognise that the SNP are the only adults in the room.

22-10-2019 4:56pm

bob mcbob wrote: »

Yes thats right - they are on track for 45+ seats out of 59.
Not bad for a party losing support right, left and centre.

I also don't think your point about "blind nationalism" really stands up.
I think most Scots recognise that the SNP are the only adults in the room.

when Theresa May called the last election, the SNP were polling on 47 to 49%, they ended up with 37%.

First past the post really worked in their favour as well, giving the SNP 35 of 59 seats.

I would wait for your chickens to hatch, before counting them.

bob mcbob · 22-10-2019 10:35pm

Aegir wrote: »

when Theresa May called the last election, the SNP were polling on 47 to 49%, they ended up with 37%.

First past the post really worked in their favour as well, giving the SNP 35 of 59 seats.

I would wait for your chickens to hatch, before counting them.

Really Ironic.

37% is the share of the vote the Tories got in 2015. They considered this a mandate for the Brexit vote.

23-10-2019 8:23am

bob mcbob wrote: »

Really Ironic.

37% is the share of the vote the Tories got in 2015. They considered this a mandate for the Brexit vote.

Legislation for which was put before the House of Commons and supported by the Labour Party

bob mcbob · 23-10-2019 10:48am

Aegir wrote: »

Legislation for which was put before the House of Commons and supported by the Labour Party

Great you accept that in FPTP, 37% is an acceptable level of the peoples votes to bring forward legislation that fundamentally alters a nations future.

Fr Tod Umptious · 23-10-2019 11:15am

bob mcbob wrote: »

Great you accept that in FPTP, 37% is an acceptable level of the peoples votes to bring forward legislation that fundamentally alters a nations future.

As far back as January 2013 Cameron promised an in/out referendum if the Conservatives were returned to power in the 2015 GE.

It's not as if the idea was sprung on anyone at the last minute.

And don't be so quick to slam the FPTP system, it has certainly been of benefit to the SNP.

23-10-2019 12:20pm

bob mcbob wrote: »

Great you accept that in FPTP, 37% is an acceptable level of the peoples votes to bring forward legislation that fundamentally alters a nations future.

you only need one MP to introduce legislation. Getting it accepted by parliament is a different matter. The number of votes a party receives is irrelevant.

Gerrybadry · 03-11-2019 3:59pm

It looks like there will be an IndyRef2 by 2021.

Hawkeye9212 · 03-11-2019 9:49pm

Gerrybadry wrote: »

It looks like there will be an IndyRef2 by 2021.

IndyRef in 2021 followed by years of negotiations before independence happens. I'd demand a high price from the SNP if I were England. Citizenship rights for Scots who still consider themselves British, free trade, a share of North Sea oil.

A Dub in Glasgo · 03-11-2019 10:05pm

Hawkeye9212 wrote: »

IndyRef in 2021 followed by years of negotiations before independence happens. I'd demand a high price from the SNP if I were England. Citizenship rights for Scots who still consider themselves British, free trade, a share of North Sea oil.

Yeah and maybe you can have your nuclear weapons and submarines back

Hawkeye9212 · 03-11-2019 10:44pm

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Yeah and maybe you can have your nuclear weapons and submarines back

I don't own any but I'm sure England will be happy to take them back. It's not much leverage for Scotland.

A Dub in Glasgo · 03-11-2019 11:03pm

Hawkeye9212 wrote: »

I don't own any but I'm sure England will be happy to take them back. It's not much leverage for Scotland.

Where will they be based?

Hawkeye9212 · 04-11-2019 12:12am

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Where will they be based?

There are several alternatives. All of them costly but the UK will put up the cash if they need to.

04-11-2019 10:02am

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Yeah and maybe you can have your nuclear weapons and submarines back

as long as they come with all the shipbuilding and other jobs that were moved to Scotland, I doubt any one wold be too upset.

Jim2007 · 04-11-2019 11:20am

Aegir wrote: »

as long as they come with all the shipbuilding and other jobs that were moved to Scotland, I doubt any one wold be too upset.

They account for 0.15% of the Scottish economy and the employment levels fluctuate dramatically do to the nature of the Industry. So probably worth it.

Jim2007 · 04-11-2019 11:28am

Hawkeye9212 wrote: »

There are several alternatives. All of them costly but the UK will put up the cash if they need to.

There actually very few locations and none in England. Apart from Scotland, Cork and Killary provide the best natural defence for a navy.

Hawkeye9212 · 04-11-2019 12:53pm

Jim2007 wrote: »

There actually very few locations and none in England. Apart from Scotland, Cork and Killary provide the best natural defence for a navy.

There are a few sites in England. Like I said, it will cost a lot of money.

Sam Russell · 04-11-2019 1:55pm

Hawkeye9212 wrote: »

There are a few sites in England. Like I said, it will cost a lot of money.

Portsmouth? Greenwich? Falmouth? I don't think so.

They need deep water, with different deep water routes out from the base. They have no alternatives, except to give up nuclear weapons altogether which could save loads of dosh, and since they would be a smaller country with much reduced GDP and reduced international reputation, it might suit them. After all, they are just place holders for USA military might.

04-11-2019 4:16pm

Jim2007 wrote: »

They account for 0.15% of the Scottish economy and the employment levels fluctuate dramatically do to the nature of the Industry. So probably worth it.

easy to be flippant about 7000 jobs when one of them isn't yours

Fr Tod Umptious · 04-11-2019 9:09pm

Maybe rUK will hold on to the sub bases as part of the the withdraw agreement.
A bit like the old treaty ports from our own independence.

But that withdrawal agreement when ever it will be will be one tough negotiation.

A Dub in Glasgo · 04-11-2019 10:47pm

Aegir wrote: »

easy to be flippant about 7000 jobs when one of them isn't yours

Any evidence of those 7000 jobs?

Take this quiz

https://twitter.com/LesleyRiddoch/status/1191082274105831430

05-11-2019 12:23pm

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Any evidence of those 7000 jobs?

Take this quiz

https://twitter.com/LesleyRiddoch/status/1191082274105831430

https://www.gov.scot/publications/scotlands-marine-economic-statistics-2017/pages/7/

7.2 Key economic points

In 2017 Shipbuilding generated £572 million in GVA: accounting for 0.43% of the overall Scottish economy and 11% of the marine economy GVA. Shipbuilding provided employment for 7,700 people (headcount), contributing 0.3% of the total Scottish employment and 11% of the marine economy employment.

4068ac1elhodqr · 05-11-2019 12:56pm

The odds for this are a 50:50 split (equates to 1.83 in bookie margin terms).

It'll be close and could really go either way, Scotexit might fill the papers and newspapers for many years.
To speed it up faster simply get Channel4/STV to run Braveheart every Friday night.

bob mcbob · 05-11-2019 6:24pm

Aegir wrote: »

https://www.gov.scot/publications/scotlands-marine-economic-statistics-2017/pages/7/

A couple of points to this -
1 Not all the ships built in Scotland are military
2 SNP want to stay members of Nato (just remove trident) so Scotland will require a Navy (I assume that as the Tories insist that Scotland picks up a representative share of the national debt, it can also pick up the same share of the UKs assets )
3 The Royal Navy will not actually need that many ships as they will no longer be responsible for guarding the strategically important Iceland gap.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GIUK_gap#Importance_to_the_Royal_Navy

4 Shipbuilding technology can also be used by other emerging technologies such as floating wind farms

Bobtheman · 05-11-2019 6:56pm

derrymcorry wrote: »

At the SNP conference in Aberdeen today Nicola Sturgeon said that they were preparing for a second independence referendum at the end of next year. She also said that Westminster couldn't stop it and Scotland was being taken out of the EU despite the electorate voting to remain. She said that Scotland is an economically viable independent nation.

What do you think about Scottish independence? Do you believe that it would be in the best interests of the Scottish people to become an indpendent country within the EU?

I, as an Irish republican, would be delighted to see an indpendent Scotland as I believe they could be our best friend within the EU now with England gone.

Also, think about the benefits that Scottish independence could have for Irish reunification.

The brexit referendum was perfectly legal ad there is no Federalist arrangement in the UK. For instance in the US you need x amount of stated to change the Constitution not a plurality. All that being said I think the scots should go but whether the English will make that easy or hard is open to question plus I'm not sure the Spanish would welcome the scots into the EU given their Catalan issues .

Sam Russell · 05-11-2019 7:52pm

bob mcbob wrote: »

A couple of points to this -
1 Not all the ships built in Scotland are military
2 SNP want to stay members of Nato (just remove trident) so Scotland will require a Navy (I assume that as the Tories insist that Scotland picks up a representative share of the national debt, it can also pick up the same share of the UKs assets )
3 The Royal Navy will not actually need that many ships as they will no longer be responsible for guarding the strategically important Iceland gap.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GIUK_gap#Importance_to_the_Royal_Navy

4 Shipbuilding technology can also be used by other emerging technologies such as floating wind farms

They will need fishery protection vessels, whether they are in the EU or Nato or not, but especially if they are not.

Capt'n Midnight · 05-11-2019 8:09pm

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

Maybe rUK will hold on to the sub bases as part of the the withdraw agreement.
A bit like the old treaty ports from our own independence.

But that withdrawal agreement when ever it will be will be one tough negotiation.

This is a minor issue.

You don't even need a base. The US navy supported it's subs from ships for over 30 years there. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holy_Loch#US_Navy_at_Holy_Loch

arctictree · 05-11-2019 8:27pm

What about 'English Independence'? Maybe time for a debate on that?!

05-11-2019 8:47pm

bob mcbob wrote: »

A couple of points to this -
1 Not all the ships built in Scotland are military
2 SNP want to stay members of Nato (just remove trident) so Scotland will require a Navy (I assume that as the Tories insist that Scotland picks up a representative share of the national debt, it can also pick up the same share of the UKs assets )
3 The Royal Navy will not actually need that many ships as they will no longer be responsible for guarding the strategically important Iceland gap.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GIUK_gap#Importance_to_the_Royal_Navy

4 Shipbuilding technology can also be used by other emerging technologies such as floating wind farms

so Scotland picks up 8% of the national debt and 8% of the Military? 1/4 of an aircraft carrier maybe and one and a bit type 45 destroyers? Of course it will have a navy, but it is unlikely to be anything like as big as the rUK navy and regardless, the UK is not going to get military ships built in a foreign country.

The Royal Navy does a lot more than protects the Greenland/Iceland gap. I would hazard a guess and say 80% of the fleet is south of Carlisle at the moment, if not south of Gibraltar.

Sam Russell wrote: »

They will need fishery protection vessels, whether they are in the EU or Nato or not, but especially if they are not.

They already have them, Fisheries is devolved function https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_Fisheries_Protection_Agency

bob mcbob · 07-11-2019 5:46pm

Aegir wrote: »

so Scotland picks up 8% of the national debt and 8% of the Military? 1/4 of an aircraft carrier maybe and one and a bit type 45 destroyers? Of course it will have a navy, but it is unlikely to be anything like as big as the rUK navy and regardless, the UK is not going to get military ships built in a foreign country.

The Royal Navy does a lot more than protects the Greenland/Iceland gap. I would hazard a guess and say 80% of the fleet is south of Carlisle at the moment, if not south of Gibraltar.

They already have them, Fisheries is devolved function https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_Fisheries_Protection_Agency

Once again
- Uk not getting ships built abroad -
https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/support-ships-likely-to-be-built-overseas/

- You only need aircraft carriers if you are (or have pretensions to be) a world power

- As for hazarding a guess about the navy's deployment - well you even admit it yourself.

07-11-2019 6:29pm

bob mcbob wrote: »

Once again
- Uk not getting ships built abroad -
https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/support-ships-likely-to-be-built-overseas/

those ships aren't actually warships, so normal EU procurement rules apply.

A Dub in Glasgo · 07-11-2019 8:48pm

Johnson taking back control and telling the people in Scotland it does not matter what they think or who they vote for, the Tories will not allow an independence referendum

https://twitter.com/libby_brooks/status/1192453576313987073

Marlow · 07-11-2019 9:02pm

Aegir wrote: »

The Royal Navy does a lot more than protects the Greenland/Iceland gap.

How on earth did you get the notion that they do that at all?

Greenland is danish territory. The Royal Navy would get kicked out, if they came up there.

The danish navy actually even keeps portoguise and spanish trawlers at bay to protect Greenlands fishing grounds for the locals.

/M

Capt'n Midnight · 07-11-2019 10:49pm

Marlow wrote: »

How on earth did you get the notion that they do that at all?

Greenland is danish territory. The Royal Navy would get kicked out, if they came up there.

The danish navy actually even keeps portoguise and spanish trawlers at bay to protect Greenlands fishing grounds for the locals.

/M

The Denmark Strait is between Iceland and Greenland. It used to be a lot more important for defence with underwater microphones and stuff. Iceland used it for leverage when they kicked out the Royal Navy in three separate Cod Wars. Then the Russian Boomers got longer range missiles so they could hide under Arctic ice. They didn't need to get into the Atlantic to nuke the US anymore.

The Danish Navy is also responsible for keeping Scottish trawlers out of Faroese waters.

The Royal Navy doesn't keep Faroese trawlers out of Scottish waters because they are allowed fish there.

07-11-2019 11:28pm

Marlow wrote: »

How on earth did you get the notion that they do that at all?

Greenland is danish territory. The Royal Navy would get kicked out, if they came up there.

The danish navy actually even keeps portoguise and spanish trawlers at bay to protect Greenlands fishing grounds for the locals.

/M

Greenland-Iceland-UK Gap. Not as relevant as it was during the cold war, but defending that is pretty much the UK's main role within NATO should it all kick off with Russia.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GIUK_gap

Bobtheman · 10-11-2019 9:00pm

Does anyone really give a flying fxxx about NATO or defence in Scotland. During the last referendum I thought the scots should stay but after the stupidity of the average uk voter was exposed - they should get as far away from these lunatics as possible.
I do think referendums are a bad idea. Hitler used them to great advantage and post war the Germans banned them.
Let complex political decisions rest in the hands of professional politicians. As Winston Churchill said the biggest argument against democracy is to spend five minutes with the average voter.
It's worth recalling that decriminalisation of homosexuaity was oppssed by by most voters in the 1960s UK. In Ireland most voters oppossed legalising condoms in the 1980s. Yet professional politicians did it anyway

Water John · 10-11-2019 11:15pm

Then with the Scots likely to elect SNP MPs in about 75% of the seats in Scotland, Independence should be a done deal, no referendum needed.

Sam Russell · 10-11-2019 11:25pm

Water John wrote: »

Then with the Scots likely to elect SNP MPs in about 75% of the seats in Scotland, Independence should be a done deal, no referendum needed.

Is it possible that those that vote other than SNP would be in favour of Scottish Indy Ref? I would think that many say Labour supporters might also support an IndyRef2 but vote Labour because they always do.

So an SNP vote is the min support for IndyRef2.

A Dub in Glasgo · 10-11-2019 11:48pm

Sam Russell wrote: »

Is it possible that those that vote other than SNP would be in favour of Scottish Indy Ref? I would think that many say Labour supporters might also support an IndyRef2 but vote Labour because they always do.

So an SNP vote is the min support for IndyRef2.

When the UK refuse an independence referedum, there is little alternative

Marlow · 10-11-2019 11:49pm

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

When the UK refuse an independence referedum, what do you suggest?

Rebuild the wall. Job done.

/M

A Dub in Glasgo · 10-11-2019 11:55pm

Marlow wrote: »

Rebuild the wall. Job done.

/M

Yes, the wall that is wholly in England :pac:
trail-england-tyne-and-wear-hadrians-wall-trail-at-map-22906378.png

Marlow · 10-11-2019 11:56pm

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Yes, the wall that is wholly in England :pac:

At least it limits the amount of english coming up to Scotland

(and please read the sarcasm between the missing lines in my original post.)

/M

Water John · 10-11-2019 11:59pm

Feck it, take a piece of England with them as there going.

Fr Tod Umptious · 11-11-2019 9:04am

Bobtheman wrote: »

Does anyone really give a flying fxxx about NATO or defence in Scotland. During the last referendum I thought the scots should stay but after the stupidity of the average uk voter was exposed - they should get as far away from these lunatics as possible.
I do think referendums are a bad idea. Hitler used them to great advantage and post war the Germans banned them.
Let complex political decisions rest in the hands of professional politicians. As Winston Churchill said the biggest argument against democracy is to spend five minutes with the average voter.
It's worth recalling that decriminalisation of homosexuaity was oppssed by by most voters in the 1960s UK. In Ireland most voters oppossed legalising condoms in the 1980s. Yet professional politicians did it anyway

Your right people don't give a flying fxxx about NATO or defence in Scotland.

Your right also that referendums are bad ideas.

The desire for indyref2 is clearly on the back of the Brexit result.

Most people campaigning and voting for independence will not be worried about the other issues around independence and the withdrawal from the UK.

The agenda will be about getting back into EU as soon as possible.

Just like people who voted Leave in Brexit did not care about all the other issues around leaving EU.

BonnieSituation · 12-11-2019 7:36pm

Dublanedri wrote: »

Berwick-upon-Tweed should be returned to Scotland post-independence.

They should return it now so. Be much easier.
:sar: ðŸ˜›

Water John · 12-11-2019 7:36pm

Not over familiar with the boundary, but would that be The Borders? Or is that a general term for the area?

BonnieSituation · 12-11-2019 7:37pm

Water John wrote: »

Not over familiar with the boundary, but would that be The Borders?

The border does a dog leg around Berwick.

http://www.oldemaps.co.uk/berwick-map.htm

13-11-2019 11:41am

do the people of Berwick not get a say in this?

BonnieSituation · 13-11-2019 12:28pm

Aegir wrote: »

do the people of Berwick not get a say in this?

Yes. The people of Berwick will have their say in a hypothetical referendum after a discussion of the hypothesis on an Irish message board.

There is no talk almost anywhere about Berwick returning to Scotland. I fail to see how you managed to get yourself in an apoplectic twist given the nature of the discussion above.

We geddit, u no want Scotland indy!

Scottish independence

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