Scottish independence

Aegir wrote: »

I do find it mildly amusing that Scottish Nationalists (or is that Irish nationalists in Scotland ) seem to have completely missed the shenanigans over Brexit and seem to think that somehow none of that will apply to them.

Yep
The campaign for an independent Scotland will be full of their version of sunlit uplands and unicorns and as you previously implied anything negative will be called project fear.

Jim2007 wrote: »

The winning party in a referendum almost always looses in a repeat.... the loosing party now know the full impact of the arguments used to win and will be able to more effectively challenge them second time around.

and the Scots now know that a lot of the issues written off as project fear are actually project fact.

They also know exactly how difficult it is to untangle a country from a union.

Zubeneschamali

Aegir wrote: »

and the Scots now know that a lot of the issues written off as project fear are actually project fact.

They also know exactly how difficult it is to untangle a country from a union.

Sure, but they are being dragged out of the European Union against their will right now.

So Independence will be out of one union, but back into another one, one with a decent record of supporting smaller member countries. A different story from the UK trying to escape into non-existent sunlit uplands.

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Sure, but they are being dragged out of the European Union against their will right now.

So Independence will be out of one union, but back into another one, one with a decent record of supporting smaller member countries. A different story from the UK trying to escape into non-existent sunlit uplands.

By no means guaranteed and a long way down the road.

derrymcorry

The EU is much better than the UK. I'd much rather a country being a full member of the EU than a part of the UK.

Aegir wrote: »

what sort of response? are the SNP going to declare war or something?

They should sort out their own backyard first though, they seem to be losing support left right and centre as the Scots start to realise that there is a bot more to running a country than blind nationalism.

That is news to me - can you supply some evidence for this.
The latest poll I have seen said that the SNP was on course to pick up 10 Tory seats at the next election.

Aegir wrote: »

They should sort out their own backyard first though, they seem to be losing support left right and centre

Can you post any evidence of that?

Aegir wrote: »

I do find it mildly amusing that Scottish Nationalists (or is that Irish nationalists in Scotland ) seem to have completely missed the shenanigans over Brexit and seem to think that somehow none of that will apply to them.

Is there a point that you disagree with or is it just a general whinge?

Aegir wrote: »

what sort of response? are the SNP going to declare war or something?

They should sort out their own backyard first though, they seem to be losing support left right and centre as the Scots start to realise that there is a bot more to running a country than blind nationalism.

I suspect you're not debating in good faith but I'll engage nonetheless.

The response will be from the electorate, according to you the SNP are losing ground which I'd like to see evidence of as anything I've seen is the opposite. The electorate will almost certainly hand an overwhelming majority mandate to the SNP, which in turn puts more weight behind another independence referendum. The Scots have been totter ally sidelined by the Tories and their voices ignored regarding Brexit, I'd be very surprised if there wasn't a response.

bob mcbob wrote: »

That is news to me - can you supply some evidence for this.
The latest poll I have seen said that the SNP was on course to pick up 10 Tory seats at the next election.

ten of the thirteen seats they lost at the last election?

Water John

The Tories just, borrowed them. They'll be handing them back soon.
It will be strange for a country to be possibly governed by a political party or similar minded one, with no elected members of Parliament, in that country.

Aegir wrote: »

ten of the thirteen seats they lost at the last election?

Yes thats right - they are on track for 45+ seats out of 59.
Not bad for a party losing support right, left and centre.

I also don't think your point about "blind nationalism" really stands up.
I think most Scots recognise that the SNP are the only adults in the room.

bob mcbob wrote: »

Yes thats right - they are on track for 45+ seats out of 59.
Not bad for a party losing support right, left and centre.

I also don't think your point about "blind nationalism" really stands up.
I think most Scots recognise that the SNP are the only adults in the room.

when Theresa May called the last election, the SNP were polling on 47 to 49%, they ended up with 37%.

First past the post really worked in their favour as well, giving the SNP 35 of 59 seats.

I would wait for your chickens to hatch, before counting them.

Aegir wrote: »

when Theresa May called the last election, the SNP were polling on 47 to 49%, they ended up with 37%.

First past the post really worked in their favour as well, giving the SNP 35 of 59 seats.

I would wait for your chickens to hatch, before counting them.

Really Ironic.

37% is the share of the vote the Tories got in 2015. They considered this a mandate for the Brexit vote.

bob mcbob wrote: »

Really Ironic.

37% is the share of the vote the Tories got in 2015. They considered this a mandate for the Brexit vote.

Legislation for which was put before the House of Commons and supported by the Labour Party

Aegir wrote: »

Legislation for which was put before the House of Commons and supported by the Labour Party

Great you accept that in FPTP, 37% is an acceptable level of the peoples votes to bring forward legislation that fundamentally alters a nations future.

bob mcbob wrote: »

Great you accept that in FPTP, 37% is an acceptable level of the peoples votes to bring forward legislation that fundamentally alters a nations future.

As far back as January 2013 Cameron promised an in/out referendum if the Conservatives were returned to power in the 2015 GE.

It's not as if the idea was sprung on anyone at the last minute.

And don't be so quick to slam the FPTP system, it has certainly been of benefit to the SNP.

bob mcbob wrote: »

Great you accept that in FPTP, 37% is an acceptable level of the peoples votes to bring forward legislation that fundamentally alters a nations future.

you only need one MP to introduce legislation. Getting it accepted by parliament is a different matter. The number of votes a party receives is irrelevant.

Gerrybadry

It looks like there will be an IndyRef2 by 2021.

Gerrybadry wrote: »

It looks like there will be an IndyRef2 by 2021.

IndyRef in 2021 followed by years of negotiations before independence happens. I'd demand a high price from the SNP if I were England. Citizenship rights for Scots who still consider themselves British, free trade, a share of North Sea oil.

Hawkeye9212 wrote: »

IndyRef in 2021 followed by years of negotiations before independence happens. I'd demand a high price from the SNP if I were England. Citizenship rights for Scots who still consider themselves British, free trade, a share of North Sea oil.

Yeah and maybe you can have your nuclear weapons and submarines back

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Yeah and maybe you can have your nuclear weapons and submarines back

I don't own any but I'm sure England will be happy to take them back. It's not much leverage for Scotland.

Hawkeye9212 wrote: »

I don't own any but I'm sure England will be happy to take them back. It's not much leverage for Scotland.

Where will they be based?

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Where will they be based?

There are several alternatives. All of them costly but the UK will put up the cash if they need to.

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Yeah and maybe you can have your nuclear weapons and submarines back

as long as they come with all the shipbuilding and other jobs that were moved to Scotland, I doubt any one wold be too upset.

Jim2007

Aegir wrote: »

as long as they come with all the shipbuilding and other jobs that were moved to Scotland, I doubt any one wold be too upset.

They account for 0.15% of the Scottish economy and the employment levels fluctuate dramatically do to the nature of the Industry. So probably worth it.

Jim2007

Hawkeye9212 wrote: »

There are several alternatives. All of them costly but the UK will put up the cash if they need to.

There actually very few locations and none in England. Apart from Scotland, Cork and Killary provide the best natural defence for a navy.

Jim2007 wrote: »

There actually very few locations and none in England. Apart from Scotland, Cork and Killary provide the best natural defence for a navy.

There are a few sites in England. Like I said, it will cost a lot of money.

Sam Russell

Hawkeye9212 wrote: »

There are a few sites in England. Like I said, it will cost a lot of money.

Portsmouth? Greenwich? Falmouth? I don't think so.

They need deep water, with different deep water routes out from the base. They have no alternatives, except to give up nuclear weapons altogether which could save loads of dosh, and since they would be a smaller country with much reduced GDP and reduced international reputation, it might suit them. After all, they are just place holders for USA military might.