National Broadband Plan or Starlink

heavydawson · 10-02-2021 6:27pm

screamer wrote: »

Im just under the 53 degrees so it’ll work.
I’m very tempted although in the village we have high speed broadband available, the incompetence of the installers means that we tried to get it installed in the past and they couldn’t navigate our old house and it’s thick walls. Price is really irrelevant when u need stable reliable broadband for work.

How thick are the walls? Is there an existing phone line coming into the house?

screamer · 10-02-2021 7:34pm

We have an existing m and mrmce c

listermint · 10-02-2021 10:13pm

screamer wrote: »

We have an existing m and mrmce c

Come again.

10-02-2021 10:38pm

screamer wrote: »

Im just under the 53 degrees so it’ll work.
I’m very tempted although in the village we have high speed broadband available, the incompetence of the installers means that we tried to get it installed in the past and they couldn’t navigate our old house and it’s thick walls. Price is really irrelevant when u need stable reliable broadband for work.

What do you mean by high speed? Imagine wireless?

celtic_oz · 11-02-2021 12:06am

ordered!

plodder · 23-02-2021 9:24am

Elon Musk satellites to beam high-speed broadband to Kerry valley

Rows Grower · 23-02-2021 11:48am

plodder wrote: »

Elon Musk satellites to beam high-speed broadband to Kerry valley

What a legend of a man!

Atomic Pineapple · 23-02-2021 12:09pm

I was about to pull the trigger, but what is the story with the 53 degrees? My address shows up as one I can order the hardware to. Assuming that by the time I actually get it that there will be coverage?

plodder · 23-02-2021 1:27pm

Atomic Pineapple wrote: »

I was about to pull the trigger, but what is the story with the 53 degrees? My address shows up as one I can order the hardware to. Assuming that by the time I actually get it that there will be coverage?

If you put random locations in the dates do vary or in some cases, it comes back saying no planned date yet. So it appears if it gives you a date, then that is the estimate of when they will have coverage at that location.

heavydawson · 23-02-2021 2:32pm

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1363763858121256963

Messer1 · 10-03-2021 12:30pm

SpaceX has announced that its beta Starlink is becoming available in parts of Northern Ireland https://www.reddit.com/r/Starlink/comments/m1stnn/uk_service_expansion_live/

This could be good news for those facing a lengthy wait for the National Broadband Plan. Adds weight to a report "Plan B for NBP" which I recently updated and circulated to Government etc.
Summary: http://bit.ly/PlanB_for_NBP_ExSum
Full plan: http://bit.ly/PlanB_for_NBP

NewClareman · 10-03-2021 4:30pm

Messer1 wrote: »

SpaceX has announced that its beta Starlink is becoming available in parts of Northern Ireland https://www.reddit.com/r/Starlink/comments/m1stnn/uk_service_expansion_live/

This could be good news for those facing a lengthy wait for the National Broadband Plan. Adds weight to a report "Plan B for NBP" which I recently updated and circulated to Government etc.
Summary: http://bit.ly/PlanB_for_NBP_ExSum
Full plan: http://bit.ly/PlanB_for_NBP

What you have written makes sense, and in line with my own thinking. I am absolutely certain that there is a role for Starlink, in Ireland, for providing broadband to specific sites. However, without having visibility of the contract details for the NBP, it is hard to know what difference any of this makes to the cost to the state.

heavydawson · 10-03-2021 5:34pm

Messer1 wrote: »

SpaceX has announced that its beta Starlink is becoming available in parts of Northern Ireland https://www.reddit.com/r/Starlink/comments/m1stnn/uk_service_expansion_live/

This could be good news for those facing a lengthy wait for the National Broadband Plan. Adds weight to a report "Plan B for NBP" which I recently updated and circulated to Government etc.
Summary: http://bit.ly/PlanB_for_NBP_ExSum
Full plan: http://bit.ly/PlanB_for_NBP

Are you proposing that the government _subsidise_ the cost of individual users connecting to satellite broadband services until NBP is in their area? Or are you suggesting that the NBP rollout be curtailed because everyone can get LEO internet?

There's nothing stopping people waiting for NBP to order Starlink as soon as it's available. The major downside I see is the price.
In the UK, you're looking at £439 for the initial cost and a further £84 a month for 150-300mbps
vs
€55/month for 500mbps NBP

As soon as NBP fibre is available to a Starlink customer for ~€30 month less, it's a no-brainer to go with NBP unless the price differential drops significantly.

Orebro · 10-03-2021 9:10pm

Messer1 wrote: »

SpaceX has announced that its beta Starlink is becoming available in parts of Northern Ireland https://www.reddit.com/r/Starlink/comments/m1stnn/uk_service_expansion_live/

This could be good news for those facing a lengthy wait for the National Broadband Plan. Adds weight to a report "Plan B for NBP" which I recently updated and circulated to Government etc.
Summary: http://bit.ly/PlanB_for_NBP_ExSum
Full plan: http://bit.ly/PlanB_for_NBP

Dear Brian Flanagan,

No thanks.

Yours etc,
Rural Ireland

celticbhoy27 · 11-03-2021 1:28am

Looking at few threads on reddit etc. To be fair it actually looks like a game changer for people in rural areas. It's a pity its more or less coinciding with the nbp. I'm tempted to get it for a couple of years tbh. 300mbps is pretty sweet while i wait to be connected

Orebro · 11-03-2021 10:20am

celticbhoy27 wrote: »

Looking at few threads on reddit etc. To be fair it actually looks like a game changer for people in rural areas. It's a pity its more or less coinciding with the nbp. I'm tempted to get it for a couple of years tbh. 300mbps is pretty sweet while i wait to be connected

This is the point. Go and order it if you want it, it will absolutely fill the gap before you get FTTH. But as a replacement for FTTH like Messer1/Brian Flanagan is suggesting? - no thanks!!

Messer1 · 11-03-2021 10:20am

heavydawson wrote: »

Are you proposing that the government _subsidise_ the cost of individual users connecting to satellite broadband services until NBP is in their area? Or are you suggesting that the NBP rollout be curtailed because everyone can get LEO internet?

There's nothing stopping people waiting for NBP to order Starlink as soon as it's available. The major downside I see is the price.
In the UK, you're looking at £439 for the initial cost and a further £84 a month for 150-300mbps
vs
€55/month for 500mbps NBP

As soon as NBP fibre is available to a Starlink customer for ~€30 month less, it's a no-brainer to go with NBP unless the price differential drops significantly.

All options should be considered. By the time the NBP has finished laying fibre, there could be 3 LEO broadband operators competing with 2nd or 3rd gen systems. A subsidy would be problematic but I understand it is being considered in Germany for rural users.

Yes, price is a downside but some people can't stay "broadband-poor" for years waiting for their superduper 500 mbps.

Orebro · 11-03-2021 10:22am

Messer1 wrote: »

All options should be considered. By the time the NBP has finished laying fibre, there could be 3 LEO broadband operators competing with 2nd or 3rd gen systems. A subsidy would be problematic but I understand it is being considered in Germany for rural users.

Yes, price is a downside but some people can't stay "broadband-poor" for years waiting for their superduper 500 mbps.

People can order it for themselves if they like - no need for Government intervention.

I'm glad there was enough noise from people on here and the general public that the FTTH project is going on full steam ahead. Nobody in power is going to try and stop that now thank goodness.

Messer1 · 11-03-2021 10:30am

NewClareman wrote: »

What you have written makes sense, and in line with my own thinking. I am absolutely certain that there is a role for Starlink, in Ireland, for providing broadband to specific sites. However, without having visibility of the contract details for the NBP, it is hard to know what difference any of this makes to the cost to the state.

My back of envelope suggests that at a conservative €2 bn capex to pass 540k premises, the cost per premises passed is about €3.7k and if, in medium term 50% take up the NBP service, the cost per user jumps to €7.5k.
PS My envelope never refuses ink!!

Messer1 · 11-03-2021 10:37am

Orebro wrote: »

People can order it for themselves if they like - no need for Government intervention.

I'm glad there was enough noise from people on here and the general public that the FTTH project is going on full steam ahead. Nobody in power is going to try and stop that now thank goodness.

I certainly don't advocate stopping the NBP. The provision of good quality broadband to rural areas should be accelerated, not slowed. This could be achieved by Starlink especially in areas which are unlikely to get fibre for years. When fibre arrives in these areas, users can decide whether to stick or switch.

Messer1 · 11-03-2021 10:42am

Orebro wrote: »

This is the point. Go and order it if you want it, it will absolutely fill the gap before you get FTTH. But as a replacement for FTTH like Messer1/Brian Flanagan is suggesting? - no thanks!!

I am NOT advocating for Starlink to replace FTTH.

Orebro · 11-03-2021 10:44am

Messer1 wrote: »

I certainly don't advocate stopping the NBP. The provision of good quality broadband to rural areas should be accelerated, not slowed. This could be achieved by Starlink especially in areas which are unlikely to get fibre for years. When fibre arrives in these areas, users can decide whether to stick or switch.

I'm not sure what the problem is then, or why this requires government intervention - if the Starlink service is there as a commercial company what's the problem exactly? Can't people just go and order it themselves?

heavydawson · 11-03-2021 11:15am

Messer1 wrote: »

My back of envelope suggests that at a conservative €2 bn capex to pass 540k premises, the cost per premises passed is about €3.7k and if, in medium term 50% take up the NBP service, the cost per user jumps to €7.5k.
PS My envelope never refuses ink!!

To be fair to you Messer1, you're not the hardliner many might have you believe :-)
I went through your proposal, and as detailed as it is (comprehensive isn't the word!), the final section reads akin to "NBP, but Starlink!"
It's not clear what you're proposing the government do? I think you could flesh it out a little. You've clearly put some thought into the economics and timeframe, but you've said yourself here that you're not advocating for curtailing NBP, and not necessarily subsidising Starlink either.

You could for example suggest that the government incorporates some degree of promotion/awareness of LEO services as part of the NBP rollout along the lines of:
"Fibre won't be in your area for X years, but while you're waiting you may want to consider...."

I think Starlink is high awareness in the likes of the boards community of users, but I don't think a lot of non-tech folks are aware of its existence.

I very much doubt the government could promote Starlink exclusively (favouritism).

Unless you can fine-tune your proposal you'll have the same political idiocy of "5G can do it all" being spouted by on the airwaves again.

People on the long-tail of the NBP should be made aware of alternatives available while they wait......and to me that's the direction the government could take with your proposal.....but I'd suggest you focus on that use-case.

The Cush · 11-03-2021 11:20am

Messer1 wrote: »

My back of envelope suggests that at a conservative €2 bn capex to pass 540k premises, the cost per premises passed is about €3.7k and if, in medium term 50% take up the NBP service, the cost per user jumps to €7.5k.

Not forgetting that the connection part of the NBP subsidy isn't paid for those premises that don't connect, that can be up to €5,000 per premises.

Orebro · 11-03-2021 11:22am

Isn't that up to Starlink though to make people aware of their service? I'm sure they'll have a good marketing department etc. And if people are very stuck then they'll find this service if it works for them. It's hardly something the government should be getting involved in - Elon Musk has deep enough pockets to put on a few TV and newspaper ads.

I'm really not sure what Messer1's point is at all.

Messer1 · 11-03-2021 12:34pm

heavydawson wrote: »

To be fair to you Messer1, you're not the hardliner many might have you believe :-)
I went through your proposal, and as detailed as it is (comprehensive isn't the word!), the final section reads akin to "NBP, but Starlink!"
It's not clear what you're proposing the government do? I think you could flesh it out a little. You've clearly put some thought into the economics and timeframe, but you've said yourself here that you're not advocating for curtailing NBP, and not necessarily subsidising Starlink either.

You could for example suggest that the government incorporates some degree of promotion/awareness of LEO services as part of the NBP rollout along the lines of:
"Fibre won't be in your area for X years, but while you're waiting you may want to consider...."

I think Starlink is high awareness in the likes of the boards community of users, but I don't think a lot of non-tech folks are aware of its existence.

I very much doubt the government could promote Starlink exclusively (favouritism).

Unless you can fine-tune your proposal you'll have the same political idiocy of "5G can do it all" being spouted by on the airwaves again.

People on the long-tail of the NBP should be made aware of alternatives available while they wait......and to me that's the direction the government could take with your proposal.....but I'd suggest you focus on that use-case.

Thanks for taking the time to read Plan B for NBP. I agree with (almost) all you have said. I felt that my role was to get the potential of LEO broadband onto the table of decision makers rather than to advocate specific solutions (which invariably would be wrong/unsuitable/etc).

My sole recommendation was that "the Government should immediately review the NBP, notwithstanding contractual and strategic commitments, and actively encourage and support the provision of high-speed broadband via low-Earth orbit satellites to premises within the Intervention Area especially where the NBP’s incremental capital expenditures and waiting times for service are likely to be significant".

I do touch on the idea of a subsidy towards cost of users' antennas in a footnote but it wasn't a recommendation because it would be so complicated to apply equitably/legally.

As a general point, I think that Starlink should grow organically in line with the launch cadence for its satellites so that a satisfactory performance and user experience can be sustained. As a result, word of mouth will build its user base. We must remember that only about 10% of sats for its service have been launched to date.

Orebro · 11-03-2021 12:59pm

Messer1 wrote: »

Thanks for taking the time to read Plan B for NBP. I agree with (almost) all you have said. I felt that my role was to get the potential of LEO broadband onto the table of decision makers rather than to advocate specific solutions (which invariably would be wrong/unsuitable/etc).

LEO broadband was mentioned many times by Gov ministers, well before the NBP contract was signed, but was rightly deemed not to be a solution to our broadband issues. If a commercial entity has a solution then that's great, but it's up to them to create awareness of it - nothing to do with Government.

I really don't get your point (I've read your docs).

joe123 · 11-03-2021 1:51pm

Messer1 wrote: »

My sole recommendation was that "the Government should immediately review the NBP, notwithstanding contractual and strategic commitments, and actively encourage and support the provision of high-speed broadband via low-Earth orbit satellites to premises within the Intervention Area especially where the NBP’s incremental capital expenditures and waiting times for service are likely to be significant".

What do you deem significant?

The doc you put together is detailed, but I cant help feel the TLDR is rural homes should only be given Starlink not Fibre. A tech that is still in its infancy.

NBI have stated that there will be a small percentage where FTTH just wont be feasible so they will look at other avenues to provide service, so sure, Starlink here would definitely be a good choice. But thats the 1%.

Outside of that, all effort and focus should be on acceleration of the FTTH rollout. Things like this just delay progress.

And this goes back to, anyone waiting for FTTH are free to look at alternatives in the meantime. This is up to the individual to research and Starlink as a company to advertise.

Musk has already mentioned a few times now that Starlink is not for the everyday consumer but for those extreme rural locations, of which you'll see a lot more of in bigger countries.

We know two things: Fibre is the gold standard that is future proof with work already underway in Ireland.

Starlink - As promising as initial tests are, we dont even know how it will fair in Ireland never mind when thousands more users start coming online with it. Not to mention its crazy expensive at the minute.

Orebro · 11-03-2021 2:26pm

What also needs to be put to bed right now is that the NBP would and should go ahead regardless of Starlink - there’s a few out there that think the Gov missed a trick in that Starlink came along and somehow the FTTH rollout is now defunct - nothing could be further from the truth.

I think all Brian Flanagan is doing here is muddying the waters.

Messer1 · 11-03-2021 2:45pm

joe123 wrote: »

What do you deem significant?

The doc you put together is detailed, but I cant help feel the TLDR is rural homes should only be given Starlink not Fibre. A tech that is still in its infancy.

NBI have stated that there will be a small percentage where FTTH just wont be feasible so they will look at other avenues to provide service, so sure, Starlink here would definitely be a good choice. But thats the 1%.

Outside of that, all effort and focus should be on acceleration of the FTTH rollout. Things like this just delay progress.

And this goes back to, anyone waiting for FTTH are free to look at alternatives in the meantime. This is up to the individual to research and Starlink as a company to advertise.

Musk has already mentioned a few times now that Starlink is not for the everyday consumer but for those extreme rural locations, of which you'll see a lot more of in bigger countries.

We know two things: Fibre is the gold standard that is future proof with work already underway in Ireland.

Starlink - As promising as initial tests are, we dont even know how it will fair in Ireland never mind when thousands more users start coming online with it. Not to mention its crazy expensive at the minute.

I'd say about 3 years would be very significant especially if, for example, you are trying to run a biz and/or have several school-going kids.

Starlink is aiming at underserved/unserved areas, not just extreme rural. Don't forget that there are also many homes within no/inferior BB outside the NBP's intervention area. Agree that it is expensive compared with other services but for some households it may be a price well worth paying - no one is forcing anyone to buy the service.

Fibre is certainly the gold standard at the moment and its deployment need not be delayed by the arrival of LEO BB which could be a solution for homes needing BB ASAP.

National Broadband Plan or Starlink

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