April 2021 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium · 29-03-2021 8:48pm #1

1. Predict the I.M.T. (Irish Mean Temperature, average for five locations, Claremorris, Mullingar, Casement, Oak Park, Shannon) ... the 1981-2010 normal value is 8.4 C.

2. Predict the MAX temperature at any of 25 regular reporting locations on the met.ie website.

3. Predict the MIN temperature at any of 25 regular reporting locations on the met.ie website.

4. Predict the PRC (precipitation) which is the average at eleven locations expressed as a percentage of normal. The stations used are the five in (1) above plus Malin Head, Ballyhaise, Belmullet, Johnstown Castle, Cork and Valentia.

5. Predict the SUN (sunshine) which is the average at six locations expressed as a percentage of normal. The stations used are Belmullet, Casement, Dublin, Cork, Shannon and Valentia.

6. BONUS -- Easter Sunday (4th) -- predict max temp and the hours of sunshine for Cork. Each worth 5/10 and but scored out of 6 to provide a chance to earn one or two superbonus points.

Forecasts:

MTC _________ 7.5 _ 20.8 _ -5.2 __ 080 __ 115 ___ 11.8 _ 4.8

Normal _______8.4 _ 20.5 _ -2.0 __ 100 __ 100 ___ 12.0 _ 3.5

Enter by 0300h Thursday 1st of April with the usual late penalties applying after that.

sryanbruen · 29-03-2021 8:50pm

sryanbruen _________ 7.8 _ 20.4 _ -4.2 __ 090 __ 105 ___ 13.1 _ 4.0

WesternStorm · 29-03-2021 8:55pm

WesternStorm _______9.9 _ 23.2 _ -0.5 __ 75 __ 124 ___ 13.5 _ 6.8

Bsal · 29-03-2021 9:41pm

Bsal_______8.6 _ 21.0 _ -2.5 __ 94 __ 110 ___ 9.0 _ 3.0

Danno · 29-03-2021 9:54pm

Danno______8.9 _ 21.9 _ -5.4 __75 __ 140 ___ 8.4 _ 5.2

pauldry · 29-03-2021 10:35pm

Pauldry_____8.2_ 20.3 _ -3.4 __81 __ 120___ 13_ 8.3

200motels · 30-03-2021 11:42am

200motels 7.9_ 21 _ -4.3 __ 091 __ 102 ___ 13.4_ 4.1

dasa29 · 30-03-2021 1:59pm

Dasa29_____8.5_ 18.5 _ -3.0 __100 __ 110___ 14_ 7

CirrusBusiness · 31-03-2021 6:18pm

CirrusBusiness___7.7__19.9__-3.9__80__95__13.7__6.5

DOCARCH · 31-03-2021 8:30pm

DOCARCH _________ 7.9 _ 20.2 _ -2.9 __ 092 __ 112 ___ 12.1 _ 6.3

John mac · 31-03-2021 9:15pm

john mac_______8.6 _ 22.5 _ -2.6 __ 105 __ 102 ___ 12.7 _ 2.5

appledrop · 31-03-2021 9:34pm

Appledrop_8.2___21__-2.5__95%__90%__12.3__5.0

Joe Public · 31-03-2021 10:00pm

Joe Public______8.2 __ 22.2 __ -4.4 __99 __ 93 ___ 11.4 _ 4.2

Tae laidir · 31-03-2021 10:30pm

Tae laidir _______8.6 _ 20.6 _ -2.5 __ 108 __ 93 ___ 11.8 _ 3.9

mr.stonewall · 31-03-2021 10:38pm

Mr Stonewall____8.9____20.7____-4.8____73____105___12.3___3.75

Artane2002 · 31-03-2021 10:39pm

Artane2002_______8.6 _ 20.8 _ -4.5 __ 115 __ 102 ___ 13.1 _ 4.3

sunflower3 · 31-03-2021 10:52pm

Sunflower3 _________ 8.2_ 22.5 _ -4.5__ 090__ 105___ 13.2_ 5.0

dacogawa · 31-03-2021 11:27pm

Dacogawa _______ 8.2 _ 21.5 _ -3.1 __ 095 __ 106 ___ 13.4 _ 6.2

Jpmarn · 31-03-2021 11:36pm

Jpmarn _______7.4 _ 19.5 _ -3.8 __ 95 __ 110 ___ 13.8 _ 5.5

adam240610 · 01-04-2021 12:01am

Adam240610___8.1__20.2__-3.9__90_111__12.9__6.0

mrskinner · 01-04-2021 12:31am

Skinner_____7.9_____20.1_____-4.2_____72_____112_____12°/5h.

eon1208 · 01-04-2021 6:58am

9.0___ 21.0___-3.3___ 88___120___12.4 _ 5.0.....

waterways · 01-04-2021 9:34am

waterways _______8.3 _ 24.5 _ -2.7 __ 90 __ 107 ___ 14.7 _ 8.5

kindredspirit · 01-04-2021 2:55pm

Oh, dear. Forgot again.

Kindred Spirit ___ 8.5 ___ 19.2 ___ -3.0 ___ 110 ___ 105 ___ 12.0 _ 4.0

Bsal · 01-04-2021 9:47pm

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/1377662944276799491?s=20

appledrop · 01-04-2021 10:16pm

Bsal wrote: »

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/1377662944276799491?s=20

It's mad that we got such a high max on 1st April!

If it was a day earlier our March max would have been off the scale!

M.T. Cranium · 02-04-2021 12:08am

Any later entrants offering a MAX prediction that rounds off to 21 or reads 21.5, 21.6, will be capped at maximum score of 15 as well as taking their full late penalties. If they go higher than 21.7 then no cap, if they go lower than 20.5 then score already capped. This will also apply if minimum progression is applied to the MAX scoring and other minimum progression scores will not suffer (the 15 penalty scores will be outside the progression in other words).

No requests for a substitution of a lower scoring forecast already in the table of forecasts will be accepted. A late entrant can remove the 15 cap by stipulating that the number they predict will occur again during the rest of the month (e.g., you say 21.2 again, and there's a 21.4 later, then your score will be 18 without the cap). You have to stipulate this to qualify for protection.

Also for the bonus, max scores will drop by one for each category in addition to the late penalties. This will preserve the overall integrity of scoring this month. This applies from 0300h to 0300h each day 2nd, 3rd so let's say somebody came in later on 2nd, their bonus forecasts would score out of five each while the rest of the field scores from 5/6. This will be applied as a one point deduction to score otherwise attained if 3+ ... if 0-2 then it will stand since no benefit was apparent.

No late entries made already on the 1st appear to have benefitted from the Valentia readings and earlier forecasts would show edit times if the MAX was edited after the deadline.

Table of entries will be up soon.

pauldry · 02-04-2021 12:27am

Weird thing is that could be the high for the month. No warm weather for next 10 days anyways

appledrop · 02-04-2021 12:56am

pauldry wrote: »

Weird thing is that could be the high for the month. No warm weather for next 10 days anyways

Yep and we could also have our minimum for the month this weekend. That's Ireland for you!

M.T. Cranium · 02-04-2021 1:06am

Table of forecasts for April 2021

FORECASTER ___ (pen) __ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Cork 4th max, sun

WesternStorm __________ 9.9 _ 23.2 _ -0.5 _ 075 _ 124 ___ 13.5 _ 6.8

Eon1208 _____ (-1) _____ 9.0 _ 21.0 _ -3.3 _ 088 _ 120 ___ 12.4 _ 5.0

Danno ________________ 8.9 _ 21.9 _ -5.4 _ 075 _ 140 ____ 8.4 _ 5.2

Mr Stonewall ___________ 8.9 _ 20.7 _ -4.8 _ 073 _ 105 ___ 12.3 _ 3.75

john mac ______________ 8.6 _ 22.5 _ -2.6 _ 105 _ 102 ___ 12.7 _ 2.5

Bsal __________________ 8.6 _ 21.0 _ -2.5 _ 094 _ 110 ____ 9.0 _ 3.0

Artane2002 ____________ 8.6 _ 20.8 _ -4.5 _ 115 _ 102 ___ 13.1 _ 4.3

Tae laidir ______________ 8.6 _ 20.6 _ -2.5 _ 108 _ 093 ___ 11.8 _ 3.9

Kindred Spirit ____ (-3) __ 8.5 _ 19.2 _ -3.0 _ 110 _ 105 ___ 12.0 _ 4.0

Dasa29 _______________ 8.5 _ 18.5 _ -3.0 _ 100 _ 110 ___ 14.0 _ 7.0

____ NormaL ___________8.4 _ 20.5 _ -2.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 12.0 _ 3.5

waterways ______ (-2) __ 8.3 _ 24.5 _ -2.7 _ 090 _ 107 ___ 14.7 _ 8.5

Sunflower3 ____________ 8.2 _ 22.5 _ -4.5 _ 090 _ 105 ___ 13.2 _ 5.0

____ Con Sensus _______ 8.2 _ 20.8 _ -3.8 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 12.7 _ 5.0

Joe Public _____________ 8.2 _ 22.2 _ -4.4 _ 099 _ 093 ___ 11.4 _ 4.2

Dacogawa _____________ 8.2 _ 21.5 _ -3.1 _ 095 _ 106 ___ 13.4 _ 6.2

Appledrop _____________ 8.2 _ 21.0 _ -2.5 _ 095 _ 090 ___ 12.3 _ 5.0

Pauldry _______________ 8.2 _ 20.3 _ -3.4 _ 081 _ 120 ___ 13.0 _ 8.3

Adam240610 ___________8.1 _ 20.2 _ -3.9 _ 090 _ 111 ___ 12.9 _ 6.0

200motels _____________7.9 _ 21.0 _ -4.3 _ 091 _ 102 ___ 13.4 _ 4.1

DOCARCH _____________ 7.9 _ 20.2 _ -2.9 _ 092 _ 112 ___ 12.1 _ 6.3

MrSkinner _____________ 7.9 _ 20.1 _ -4.2 _ 072 _ 112 ___ 12.0 _ 5.0

sryanbruen ____________ 7.8 _ 20.4 _ -4.2 _ 090 _ 105 ___ 13.1 _ 4.0

Gonzo ____ (-10) _______ 7.7 _ 23.1 _ -5.8 _ 088 _ 112 ___ 11.5 _ 2.3

CirrusBusiness __________7.7 _ 19.9 _ -3.9 _ 080 _ 095 ___ 13.7 _ 6.5

M.T. Cranium ___________7.5 _ 20.8 _ -5.2 _ 080 _ 115 ___ 11.8 _ 4.8

Jpmarn _______________ 7.4 _ 19.5 _ -3.8 _ 095 _ 110 ___ 13.8 _ 5.5

___________________________________________

25 forecasts so far, will adjust Con Sensus with any later entries.

Gonzo · 02-04-2021 7:00pm

Gonzo _________ 7.7 _ 23.1 _ -5.8 __ 088 __ 112 ___ 11.5 _ 2.3

Tae laidir · 03-04-2021 10:26am

Dublin Airport -1.9 yesterday.

M.T. Cranium · 04-04-2021 1:06am

Here are the bonus question forecasts re-arranged in order of Cork temperatures. The sunshine forecasts are arranged visually with the higher amounts further out to the right.

FORECASTER ____ Cork 4th max, sun

waterways _______14.7 ______ 8.5

Dasa29 _________ 14.0 _____ 7.0

Jpmarn _________ 13.8 ___ 5.5

CirrusBusiness ___ 13.7 ____ 6.5

WesternStorm ___ 13.5 ____ 6.8

Dacogawa _______13.4 ____ 6.2

200motels ______ 13.4 __ 4.1

Sunflower3 ______13.2 ___ 5.0

Artane2002 _____ 13.1 __ 4.3

sryanbruen ______13.1 __ 4.0

Pauldry _________13.0 ______ 8.3

Adam240610 ____12.9 ____ 6.0

john mac _______12.7 _ 2.5

___ Con Sensus __12.7 ___ 5.0

Eon1208 _______ 12.4 ___ 5.0

Appledrop ______ 12.3 ___ 5.0

Mr Stonewall ____ 12.3 _ 3.75

DOCARCH ______ 12.1 ____ 6.3

MrSkinner ______ 12.0 ___ 5.0

Kindred Spirit ___ 12.0 __ 4.0

___ NormaL _____12.0 _ 3.5

M.T. Cranium ____ 11.8 __ 4.8

Tae laidir _______ 11.8 __ 3.9

Gonzo __________11.5 _2.3

Joe Public _______11.4 __ 4.2

Bsal ____________ 9.0 _ 3.0

Danno __________ 8.4 ___ 5.2

____________________________________

This should make it easier to score the bonus results on Monday.

Would anyone revise if they could? I would go a bit warmer maybe 13.5.

appledrop · 04-04-2021 1:18am

M.T yeah I'd also go warmer I'd agree with 13 5.

Hoping I'll do alright with 5 hours of sunshine though.

Tae laidir · 04-04-2021 4:43pm

Cork 14deg at 16.00

pauldry · 04-04-2021 7:40pm

Cork 14.3c Max and quite a sunny day bar one or two hours and maybe an hour in morning and evening

M.T. Cranium · 04-04-2021 7:55pm

The temperature portion can be scored now, if that's all true (and it looks right).

Groups of four (excluding Con Sensus and Normal) will get six, five etc points, one group (two points) will have five people since there's a tie at the last of its cohort.

Will post the actual numbers tomorrow when we can confirm that sunshine hours were as high as they appear from the hourlies, in which case the same logic will apply, four highest forecasts getting the six points. Gonzo won't be further penalized after late penalty, as his punt went a bit low to require a trim.

The four highest sunshine forecasts go to waterways (8.3), Pauldry (8.0), dasa29 (7.0) and Western Storm (6.5). Waterways would need the result to be 7.3 hours to stay in this top scoring group, Pauldry okay down to 7.2. So I'm not entirely sure the four high forecasts are the four closest, but it could be the case.

The bonus is being scored out of (6+6) to make superbonus points automatic, and if sunshine is high enough, waterways and dasa29 will total 12, Western Storm 11 and Cirrus Business either 11 or 12.

Jpmarn · 05-04-2021 11:06am

Cork Max 14.3°C sun 11.4 hours

M.T. Cranium · 05-04-2021 11:40am

So, converting the forecast table into a scoring table ...

FORECASTER ___ temp _ sun _ total points

waterways _______6 ___ 6 ____ 12

Dasa29 _________ 6 ___ 6 ____ 12

CirrusBusiness ___ 6 ___ 5 ____ 11

WesternStorm ___ 5 ___ 6 ____ 11

Jpmarn _________6 ___ 4 ____ 10

Dacogawa ______ 5 ___ 5 ____ 10

Pauldry _________4 ___ 6 ____ 10

Adam240610 ____4 ___ 5 _____ 9

Sunflower3 ______5 ___ 4 _____ 9

200motels ______ 5 ___ 3 _____ 8

Artane2002 _____ 4 ___ 3 _____ 7

Eon1208 _______ 3 ___ 4 _____ 7

Appledrop ______ 3 ___ 4 _____ 7

DOCARCH ______ 2 ___ 5 _____ 7

___ Con Sensus __3 ___ 4 _____ 7

MrSkinner ______ 2 ___ 4 _____ 6

sryanbruen ______4 ___ 2 _____ 6

Mr Stonewall ____ 3 ___ 2 _____ 5

M.T. Cranium ____ 2 ___ 3 _____ 5

Danno __________1 ___ 4 _____ 5

Tae laidir _______ 2 ___ 2 _____ 4

Joe Public _______1 ___ 3 _____ 4

john mac _______3 ___ 1 _____ 4

Kindred Spirit ___ 2 ___ 2 _____ 4

___ NormaL _____2 ___ 2 _____ 4

Gonzo __________1 ___ 1 _____ 2

Bsal ___________ 1 ___ 1 _____ 2

____________________________________

The warmest and sunniest forecasts scored best, congrats to waterways and dasa29.

appledrop · 05-04-2021 1:03pm

Thanks M.T not too bad, I thought I would get about 2 points!

I'm the glad the people of Cork got a much sunnier and warm Easter Sunday than was initially predicted!

Tae laidir · 05-04-2021 4:06pm

Cold front arrived later than I expected. Great bonus question.

appledrop · 06-04-2021 9:32am

New min -3.6 at Casement on 5th.

Jpmarn · 08-04-2021 11:55am

Tae laidir wrote: »

Cold front arrived later than I expected. Great bonus question.

I based my guess on the various forecasts that were around a few days beforehand. Generally anything from 12 to 14°c were quoted for Cork. I anticipate the early part of the day would be sunny and it would cloud up during the afternoon and early evening. With over 11hours of Sun it must be almost wall to wall sunshine. Forecasts are never 100% accurate.

M.T. Cranium · 08-04-2021 6:42pm

After the first week ...

IMT was 6.1 which is 2.0 below normal.

MAX 21.2 and MIN -3.6.

PRC only 17% of normal.

SUN was 163% of normal (976/600).

Bonus scoring already settled (above).

M.T. Cranium · 10-04-2021 7:55pm

A new MIN likely set with numerous reports of -4 early today. Any official numbers available yet?

pauldry · 10-04-2021 10:02pm

-4.7c in Dublin Airport new min

Will tonight beat it? Itl be close

pauldry · 11-04-2021 2:42am

Currently -3c in Casement n -4c in Baltinglass but a few hours yet. -5c possible in Casement. Forgot maybe Mt Dillon has won the lowest temp yet. Was -3c there last night at midnight

M.T. Cranium · 11-04-2021 6:38pm

Only Casement got as low as -4 on hourlies last night, so probably no new MIN.

The IMT after the 10th was 5.9, est 5.7 after today. The IMT for the 10th was only 2.9 C.

M.T. Cranium · 12-04-2021 1:27pm

Apparently Casement hit -4.7 to tie the MIN we had the previous night.

It has been cold here also, a bit of ice and snow returned on Saturday and it lasted right through the weekend in shady spots, despite highs around 5 C.

M.T. Cranium · 15-04-2021 7:34pm

After two weeks ...

The IMT on 5.8 after a cold second week, average 5.7 (2.8 below normal).

MAX 21.2 and MIN -4.7

PRC still very low, 31% with this past week at 46% of normal.

SUN remains high at 154% with this past week 144% (862/600).

If all aspects returned to normal for the period of today to end of month (and not saying they will) the outcomes would be about like this:

7.0 ___ 21.2 ____ --4.7 ____ 060 ____ 120

M.T. Cranium · 22-04-2021 9:33pm

After three weeks ...

IMT on 6.8, third week 8.7 C just 0.3 below normal.

MAX 21.2, MIN -4.7

PRC still low at 38% of normal, this past week 51% (somewhat closer to normal in west).

SUN has come down to 131% with this past week 84% (502/600).

April 2021 Boards weather forecast contest

Comments