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April 2021 Boards weather forecast contest

  • 29-03-2021 8:48pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 13,215 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    1. Predict the I.M.T. (Irish Mean Temperature, average for five locations, Claremorris, Mullingar, Casement, Oak Park, Shannon) ... the 1981-2010 normal value is 8.4 C.

    2. Predict the MAX temperature at any of 25 regular reporting locations on the met.ie website.

    3. Predict the MIN temperature at any of 25 regular reporting locations on the met.ie website.

    4. Predict the PRC (precipitation) which is the average at eleven locations expressed as a percentage of normal. The stations used are the five in (1) above plus Malin Head, Ballyhaise, Belmullet, Johnstown Castle, Cork and Valentia.

    5. Predict the SUN (sunshine) which is the average at six locations expressed as a percentage of normal. The stations used are Belmullet, Casement, Dublin, Cork, Shannon and Valentia.

    6. BONUS -- Easter Sunday (4th) -- predict max temp and the hours of sunshine for Cork. Each worth 5/10 and but scored out of 6 to provide a chance to earn one or two superbonus points.

    Forecasts:

    MTC _________ 7.5 _ 20.8 _ -5.2 __ 080 __ 115 ___ 11.8 _ 4.8

    Normal _______8.4 _ 20.5 _ -2.0 __ 100 __ 100 ___ 12.0 _ 3.5


    Enter by 0300h Thursday 1st of April with the usual late penalties applying after that.


«13

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 12,560 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    sryanbruen _________ 7.8 _ 20.4 _ -4.2 __ 090 __ 105 ___ 13.1 _ 4.0

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 24 WesternStorm


    WesternStorm _______9.9 _ 23.2 _ -0.5 __ 75 __ 124 ___ 13.5 _ 6.8


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,717 ✭✭✭ Bsal


    Bsal_______8.6 _ 21.0 _ -2.5 __ 94 __ 110 ___ 9.0 _ 3.0


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,421 ✭✭✭ Danno


    Danno______8.9 _ 21.9 _ -5.4 __75 __ 140 ___ 8.4 _ 5.2


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,853 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Pauldry_____8.2_ 20.3 _ -3.4 __81 __ 120___ 13_ 8.3


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,569 ✭✭✭ 200motels


    200motels 7.9_ 21 _ -4.3 __ 091 __ 102 ___ 13.4_ 4.1


  • Registered Users Posts: 458 ✭✭ dasa29


    Dasa29_____8.5_ 18.5 _ -3.0 __100 __ 110___ 14_ 7


  • Registered Users Posts: 153 ✭✭ CirrusBusiness


    CirrusBusiness___7.7__19.9__-3.9__80__95__13.7__6.5


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,122 Mod ✭✭✭✭ DOCARCH


    DOCARCH _________ 7.9 _ 20.2 _ -2.9 __ 092 __ 112 ___ 12.1 _ 6.3


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,997 ✭✭✭ John mac


    john mac_______8.6 _ 22.5 _ -2.6 __ 105 __ 102 ___ 12.7 _ 2.5


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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,628 ✭✭✭ appledrop


    Appledrop_8.2___21__-2.5__95%__90%__12.3__5.0


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,746 ✭✭✭ Joe Public


    Joe Public______8.2 __ 22.2 __ -4.4 __99 __ 93 ___ 11.4 _ 4.2


  • Registered Users Posts: 623 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    Tae laidir _______8.6 _ 20.6 _ -2.5 __ 108 __ 93 ___ 11.8 _ 3.9


  • Registered Users Posts: 755 ✭✭✭ mr.stonewall


    Mr Stonewall____8.9____20.7____-4.8____73____105___12.3___3.75


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,861 ✭✭✭ Artane2002


    Artane2002_______8.6 _ 20.8 _ -4.5 __ 115 __ 102 ___ 13.1 _ 4.3


  • Registered Users Posts: 165 ✭✭ sunflower3


    Sunflower3 _________ 8.2_ 22.5 _ -4.5__ 090__ 105___ 13.2_ 5.0


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,773 ✭✭✭ dacogawa


    Dacogawa _______ 8.2 _ 21.5 _ -3.1 __ 095 __ 106 ___ 13.4 _ 6.2


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,409 ✭✭✭ Jpmarn


    Jpmarn _______7.4 _ 19.5 _ -3.8 __ 95 __ 110 ___ 13.8 _ 5.5


  • Registered Users Posts: 748 ✭✭✭ adam240610


    Adam240610___8.1__20.2__-3.9__90_111__12.9__6.0


  • Registered Users Posts: 360 ✭✭ mrskinner


    Skinner_____7.9_____20.1_____-4.2_____72_____112_____12°/5h.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 281 ✭✭ eon1208


    9.0___ 21.0___-3.3___ 88___120___12.4 _ 5.0.....


  • Registered Users Posts: 352 ✭✭ waterways


    waterways _______8.3 _ 24.5 _ -2.7 __ 90 __ 107 ___ 14.7 _ 8.5


  • Registered Users Posts: 318 ✭✭ kindredspirit


    Oh, dear. Forgot again. :(

    Kindred Spirit ___ 8.5 ___ 19.2 ___ -3.0 ___ 110 ___ 105 ___ 12.0 _ 4.0


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,717 ✭✭✭ Bsal




  • Registered Users Posts: 4,628 ✭✭✭ appledrop


    Bsal wrote: »

    It's mad that we got such a high max on 1st April!

    If it was a day earlier our March max would have been off the scale!


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,215 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Any later entrants offering a MAX prediction that rounds off to 21 or reads 21.5, 21.6, will be capped at maximum score of 15 as well as taking their full late penalties. If they go higher than 21.7 then no cap, if they go lower than 20.5 then score already capped. This will also apply if minimum progression is applied to the MAX scoring and other minimum progression scores will not suffer (the 15 penalty scores will be outside the progression in other words).

    No requests for a substitution of a lower scoring forecast already in the table of forecasts will be accepted. A late entrant can remove the 15 cap by stipulating that the number they predict will occur again during the rest of the month (e.g., you say 21.2 again, and there's a 21.4 later, then your score will be 18 without the cap). You have to stipulate this to qualify for protection.

    Also for the bonus, max scores will drop by one for each category in addition to the late penalties. This will preserve the overall integrity of scoring this month. This applies from 0300h to 0300h each day 2nd, 3rd so let's say somebody came in later on 2nd, their bonus forecasts would score out of five each while the rest of the field scores from 5/6. This will be applied as a one point deduction to score otherwise attained if 3+ ... if 0-2 then it will stand since no benefit was apparent.

    No late entries made already on the 1st appear to have benefitted from the Valentia readings and earlier forecasts would show edit times if the MAX was edited after the deadline.

    Table of entries will be up soon.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,853 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Weird thing is that could be the high for the month. No warm weather for next 10 days anyways


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,628 ✭✭✭ appledrop


    pauldry wrote: »
    Weird thing is that could be the high for the month. No warm weather for next 10 days anyways

    Yep and we could also have our minimum for the month this weekend. That's Ireland for you!


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,215 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Table of forecasts for April 2021


    FORECASTER ___ (pen) __ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Cork 4th max, sun

    WesternStorm __________ 9.9 _ 23.2 _ -0.5 _ 075 _ 124 ___ 13.5 _ 6.8

    Eon1208 _____ (-1) _____ 9.0 _ 21.0 _ -3.3 _ 088 _ 120 ___ 12.4 _ 5.0

    Danno ________________ 8.9 _ 21.9 _ -5.4 _ 075 _ 140 ____ 8.4 _ 5.2

    Mr Stonewall ___________ 8.9 _ 20.7 _ -4.8 _ 073 _ 105 ___ 12.3 _ 3.75

    john mac ______________ 8.6 _ 22.5 _ -2.6 _ 105 _ 102 ___ 12.7 _ 2.5

    Bsal __________________ 8.6 _ 21.0 _ -2.5 _ 094 _ 110 ____ 9.0 _ 3.0

    Artane2002 ____________ 8.6 _ 20.8 _ -4.5 _ 115 _ 102 ___ 13.1 _ 4.3

    Tae laidir ______________ 8.6 _ 20.6 _ -2.5 _ 108 _ 093 ___ 11.8 _ 3.9

    Kindred Spirit ____ (-3) __ 8.5 _ 19.2 _ -3.0 _ 110 _ 105 ___ 12.0 _ 4.0

    Dasa29 _______________ 8.5 _ 18.5 _ -3.0 _ 100 _ 110 ___ 14.0 _ 7.0


    ____ NormaL ___________8.4 _ 20.5 _ -2.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 12.0 _ 3.5


    waterways ______ (-2) __ 8.3 _ 24.5 _ -2.7 _ 090 _ 107 ___ 14.7 _ 8.5

    Sunflower3 ____________ 8.2 _ 22.5 _ -4.5 _ 090 _ 105 ___ 13.2 _ 5.0


    ____ Con Sensus _______ 8.2 _ 20.8 _ -3.8 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 12.7 _ 5.0


    Joe Public _____________ 8.2 _ 22.2 _ -4.4 _ 099 _ 093 ___ 11.4 _ 4.2

    Dacogawa _____________ 8.2 _ 21.5 _ -3.1 _ 095 _ 106 ___ 13.4 _ 6.2

    Appledrop _____________ 8.2 _ 21.0 _ -2.5 _ 095 _ 090 ___ 12.3 _ 5.0

    Pauldry _______________ 8.2 _ 20.3 _ -3.4 _ 081 _ 120 ___ 13.0 _ 8.3

    Adam240610 ___________8.1 _ 20.2 _ -3.9 _ 090 _ 111 ___ 12.9 _ 6.0

    200motels _____________7.9 _ 21.0 _ -4.3 _ 091 _ 102 ___ 13.4 _ 4.1

    DOCARCH _____________ 7.9 _ 20.2 _ -2.9 _ 092 _ 112 ___ 12.1 _ 6.3

    MrSkinner _____________ 7.9 _ 20.1 _ -4.2 _ 072 _ 112 ___ 12.0 _ 5.0

    sryanbruen ____________ 7.8 _ 20.4 _ -4.2 _ 090 _ 105 ___ 13.1 _ 4.0

    Gonzo ____ (-10) _______ 7.7 _ 23.1 _ -5.8 _ 088 _ 112 ___ 11.5 _ 2.3

    CirrusBusiness __________7.7 _ 19.9 _ -3.9 _ 080 _ 095 ___ 13.7 _ 6.5

    M.T. Cranium ___________7.5 _ 20.8 _ -5.2 _ 080 _ 115 ___ 11.8 _ 4.8

    Jpmarn _______________ 7.4 _ 19.5 _ -3.8 _ 095 _ 110 ___ 13.8 _ 5.5

    ___________________________________________

    25 forecasts so far, will adjust Con Sensus with any later entries.


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,184 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    Gonzo _________ 7.7 _ 23.1 _ -5.8 __ 088 __ 112 ___ 11.5 _ 2.3


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