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April 2021 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

1. Predict the I.M.T. (Irish Mean Temperature, average for five locations, Claremorris, Mullingar, Casement, Oak Park, Shannon) ... the 1981-2010 normal value is 8.4 C.

2. Predict the MAX temperature at any of 25 regular reporting locations on the met.ie website.

3. Predict the MIN temperature at any of 25 regular reporting locations on the met.ie website.

4. Predict the PRC (precipitation) which is the average at eleven locations expressed as a percentage of normal. The stations used are the five in (1) above plus Malin Head, Ballyhaise, Belmullet, Johnstown Castle, Cork and Valentia.

5. Predict the SUN (sunshine) which is the average at six locations expressed as a percentage of normal. The stations used are Belmullet, Casement, Dublin, Cork, Shannon and Valentia.

6. BONUS -- Easter Sunday (4th) -- predict max temp and the hours of sunshine for Cork. Each worth 5/10 and but scored out of 6 to provide a chance to earn one or two superbonus points.

Forecasts:

MTC _________ 7.5 _ 20.8 _ -5.2 __ 080 __ 115 ___ 11.8 _ 4.8

Normal _______8.4 _ 20.5 _ -2.0 __ 100 __ 100 ___ 12.0 _ 3.5

Enter by 0300h Thursday 1st of April with the usual late penalties applying after that.

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appledrop

Thanks M.T not too bad, I thought I would get about 2 points!

I'm the glad the people of Cork got a much sunnier and warm Easter Sunday than was initially predicted!

M.T. Cranium

So, converting the forecast table into a scoring table ...

FORECASTER ___ temp _ sun _ total points

waterways _______6 ___ 6 ____ 12

Dasa29 _________ 6 ___ 6 ____ 12

CirrusBusiness ___ 6 ___ 5 ____ 11

WesternStorm ___ 5 ___ 6 ____ 11

Jpmarn _________6 ___ 4 ____ 10

Dacogawa ______ 5 ___ 5 ____ 10

Pauldry _________4 ___ 6 ____ 10

Adam240610 ____4 ___ 5 _____ 9

Sunflower3 ______5 ___ 4 _____ 9

200motels ______ 5 ___ 3 _____ 8

Artane2002 _____ 4 ___ 3 _____ 7

Eon1208 _______ 3 ___ 4 _____ 7

Appledrop ______ 3 ___ 4 _____ 7

DOCARCH ______ 2 ___ 5 _____ 7

___ Con Sensus __3 ___ 4 _____ 7

MrSkinner ______ 2 ___ 4 _____ 6

sryanbruen ______4 ___ 2 _____ 6

Mr Stonewall ____ 3 ___ 2 _____ 5

M.T. Cranium ____ 2 ___ 3 _____ 5

Danno __________1 ___ 4 _____ 5

Tae laidir _______ 2 ___ 2 _____ 4

Joe Public _______1 ___ 3 _____ 4

john mac _______3 ___ 1 _____ 4

Kindred Spirit ___ 2 ___ 2 _____ 4

___ NormaL _____2 ___ 2 _____ 4

Gonzo __________1 ___ 1 _____ 2

Bsal ___________ 1 ___ 1 _____ 2

____________________________________

The warmest and sunniest forecasts scored best, congrats to waterways and dasa29.

Jpmarn

Cork Max 14.3°C sun 11.4 hours

M.T. Cranium

The temperature portion can be scored now, if that's all true (and it looks right).

Groups of four (excluding Con Sensus and Normal) will get six, five etc points, one group (two points) will have five people since there's a tie at the last of its cohort.

Will post the actual numbers tomorrow when we can confirm that sunshine hours were as high as they appear from the hourlies, in which case the same logic will apply, four highest forecasts getting the six points. Gonzo won't be further penalized after late penalty, as his punt went a bit low to require a trim.

The four highest sunshine forecasts go to waterways (8.3), Pauldry (8.0), dasa29 (7.0) and Western Storm (6.5). Waterways would need the result to be 7.3 hours to stay in this top scoring group, Pauldry okay down to 7.2. So I'm not entirely sure the four high forecasts are the four closest, but it could be the case.

The bonus is being scored out of (6+6) to make superbonus points automatic, and if sunshine is high enough, waterways and dasa29 will total 12, Western Storm 11 and Cirrus Business either 11 or 12.

pauldry

Cork 14.3c Max and quite a sunny day bar one or two hours and maybe an hour in morning and evening

Tae laidir

Cork 14deg at 16.00

appledrop

M.T yeah I'd also go warmer I'd agree with 13 5.

Hoping I'll do alright with 5 hours of sunshine though.

M.T. Cranium

Here are the bonus question forecasts re-arranged in order of Cork temperatures. The sunshine forecasts are arranged visually with the higher amounts further out to the right.

FORECASTER ____ Cork 4th max, sun

waterways _______14.7 ______ 8.5

Dasa29 _________ 14.0 _____ 7.0

Jpmarn _________ 13.8 ___ 5.5

CirrusBusiness ___ 13.7 ____ 6.5

WesternStorm ___ 13.5 ____ 6.8

Dacogawa _______13.4 ____ 6.2

200motels ______ 13.4 __ 4.1

Sunflower3 ______13.2 ___ 5.0

Artane2002 _____ 13.1 __ 4.3

sryanbruen ______13.1 __ 4.0

Pauldry _________13.0 ______ 8.3

Adam240610 ____12.9 ____ 6.0

john mac _______12.7 _ 2.5

___ Con Sensus __12.7 ___ 5.0

Eon1208 _______ 12.4 ___ 5.0

Appledrop ______ 12.3 ___ 5.0

Mr Stonewall ____ 12.3 _ 3.75

DOCARCH ______ 12.1 ____ 6.3

MrSkinner ______ 12.0 ___ 5.0

Kindred Spirit ___ 12.0 __ 4.0

___ NormaL _____12.0 _ 3.5

M.T. Cranium ____ 11.8 __ 4.8

Tae laidir _______ 11.8 __ 3.9

Gonzo __________11.5 _2.3

Joe Public _______11.4 __ 4.2

Bsal ____________ 9.0 _ 3.0

Danno __________ 8.4 ___ 5.2

____________________________________

This should make it easier to score the bonus results on Monday.

Would anyone revise if they could? I would go a bit warmer maybe 13.5.

Tae laidir

Dublin Airport -1.9 yesterday.

Gonzo

Gonzo _________ 7.7 _ 23.1 _ -5.8 __ 088 __ 112 ___ 11.5 _ 2.3

M.T. Cranium

Table of forecasts for April 2021

FORECASTER ___ (pen) __ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Cork 4th max, sun

WesternStorm __________ 9.9 _ 23.2 _ -0.5 _ 075 _ 124 ___ 13.5 _ 6.8

Eon1208 _____ (-1) _____ 9.0 _ 21.0 _ -3.3 _ 088 _ 120 ___ 12.4 _ 5.0

Danno ________________ 8.9 _ 21.9 _ -5.4 _ 075 _ 140 ____ 8.4 _ 5.2

Mr Stonewall ___________ 8.9 _ 20.7 _ -4.8 _ 073 _ 105 ___ 12.3 _ 3.75

john mac ______________ 8.6 _ 22.5 _ -2.6 _ 105 _ 102 ___ 12.7 _ 2.5

Bsal __________________ 8.6 _ 21.0 _ -2.5 _ 094 _ 110 ____ 9.0 _ 3.0

Artane2002 ____________ 8.6 _ 20.8 _ -4.5 _ 115 _ 102 ___ 13.1 _ 4.3

Tae laidir ______________ 8.6 _ 20.6 _ -2.5 _ 108 _ 093 ___ 11.8 _ 3.9

Kindred Spirit ____ (-3) __ 8.5 _ 19.2 _ -3.0 _ 110 _ 105 ___ 12.0 _ 4.0

Dasa29 _______________ 8.5 _ 18.5 _ -3.0 _ 100 _ 110 ___ 14.0 _ 7.0

____ NormaL ___________8.4 _ 20.5 _ -2.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 12.0 _ 3.5

waterways ______ (-2) __ 8.3 _ 24.5 _ -2.7 _ 090 _ 107 ___ 14.7 _ 8.5

Sunflower3 ____________ 8.2 _ 22.5 _ -4.5 _ 090 _ 105 ___ 13.2 _ 5.0

____ Con Sensus _______ 8.2 _ 20.8 _ -3.8 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 12.7 _ 5.0

Joe Public _____________ 8.2 _ 22.2 _ -4.4 _ 099 _ 093 ___ 11.4 _ 4.2

Dacogawa _____________ 8.2 _ 21.5 _ -3.1 _ 095 _ 106 ___ 13.4 _ 6.2

Appledrop _____________ 8.2 _ 21.0 _ -2.5 _ 095 _ 090 ___ 12.3 _ 5.0

Pauldry _______________ 8.2 _ 20.3 _ -3.4 _ 081 _ 120 ___ 13.0 _ 8.3

Adam240610 ___________8.1 _ 20.2 _ -3.9 _ 090 _ 111 ___ 12.9 _ 6.0

200motels _____________7.9 _ 21.0 _ -4.3 _ 091 _ 102 ___ 13.4 _ 4.1

DOCARCH _____________ 7.9 _ 20.2 _ -2.9 _ 092 _ 112 ___ 12.1 _ 6.3

MrSkinner _____________ 7.9 _ 20.1 _ -4.2 _ 072 _ 112 ___ 12.0 _ 5.0

sryanbruen ____________ 7.8 _ 20.4 _ -4.2 _ 090 _ 105 ___ 13.1 _ 4.0

Gonzo ____ (-10) _______ 7.7 _ 23.1 _ -5.8 _ 088 _ 112 ___ 11.5 _ 2.3

CirrusBusiness __________7.7 _ 19.9 _ -3.9 _ 080 _ 095 ___ 13.7 _ 6.5

M.T. Cranium ___________7.5 _ 20.8 _ -5.2 _ 080 _ 115 ___ 11.8 _ 4.8

Jpmarn _______________ 7.4 _ 19.5 _ -3.8 _ 095 _ 110 ___ 13.8 _ 5.5

___________________________________________

25 forecasts so far, will adjust Con Sensus with any later entries.

appledrop

pauldry wrote: »

Weird thing is that could be the high for the month. No warm weather for next 10 days anyways

Yep and we could also have our minimum for the month this weekend. That's Ireland for you!

pauldry

Weird thing is that could be the high for the month. No warm weather for next 10 days anyways

M.T. Cranium

Any later entrants offering a MAX prediction that rounds off to 21 or reads 21.5, 21.6, will be capped at maximum score of 15 as well as taking their full late penalties. If they go higher than 21.7 then no cap, if they go lower than 20.5 then score already capped. This will also apply if minimum progression is applied to the MAX scoring and other minimum progression scores will not suffer (the 15 penalty scores will be outside the progression in other words).

No requests for a substitution of a lower scoring forecast already in the table of forecasts will be accepted. A late entrant can remove the 15 cap by stipulating that the number they predict will occur again during the rest of the month (e.g., you say 21.2 again, and there's a 21.4 later, then your score will be 18 without the cap). You have to stipulate this to qualify for protection.

Also for the bonus, max scores will drop by one for each category in addition to the late penalties. This will preserve the overall integrity of scoring this month. This applies from 0300h to 0300h each day 2nd, 3rd so let's say somebody came in later on 2nd, their bonus forecasts would score out of five each while the rest of the field scores from 5/6. This will be applied as a one point deduction to score otherwise attained if 3+ ... if 0-2 then it will stand since no benefit was apparent.

No late entries made already on the 1st appear to have benefitted from the Valentia readings and earlier forecasts would show edit times if the MAX was edited after the deadline.

Table of entries will be up soon.