Offseason 2021 - Trades, Free Agency, QB Carousel

eagle eye · 06-03-2021 7:58pm

Foxtrol wrote:

I'm not sure how I'm the clueless one, when Herbert was a consensus early 1st round pick by nearly every person that earns a living analyzing the draft and since draft season kicked off Trask hasn't been getting near even the tail end of the 1st among that same group. Do you throw out these QB 'hot takes' each year hoping one day a certain one will hit that you'll be able to hang your hat on? Your hit rate isn't great.

Well you can search my history and I've been pretty decent at it. I remember talking about Russell Wilson, Andy Dalton and Derek Carr being underrated
In fact I said Carr was the best QB in his class. To name a few, I remember saying Sam Bradford, Jameis Winston, Blake Bottles, Teddy Bridgewater, Marcus Mariota and Josh Rosen were all overrated. I said the same as regards Kyler Murray but many still disagree with that.
I've been wrong on occasion too but not very often. I was wrong about Mahomes, I didn't think he was all that.

Foxtrol · 06-03-2021 11:28pm

eagle eye wrote: »

Well you can search my history and I've been pretty decent at it. I remember talking about Russell Wilson, Andy Dalton and Derek Carr being underrated
In fact I said Carr was the best QB in his class. To name a few, I remember saying Sam Bradford, Jameis Winston, Blake Bottles, Teddy Bridgewater, Marcus Mariota and Josh Rosen were all overrated. I said the same as regards Kyler Murray but many still disagree with that.
I've been wrong on occasion too but not very often. I was wrong about Mahomes, I didn't think he was all that.

No issue with you saying QBs are under or over rated, that is just normal opinions, but what I call BS on is trying to equate a player that was analyzed by nearly every pundit as being an early first round pick, who then went on to exceed most expectations with another QB that is no where in his league coming out of college, Trask having both a pretty low floor and a low ceiling.

eagle eye · 07-03-2021 2:11am

Foxtrol wrote:

No issue with you saying QBs are under or over rated, that is just normal opinions, but what I call BS on is trying to equate a player that was analyzed by nearly every pundit as being an early first round pick, who then went on to exceed most expectations with another QB that is no where in his league coming out of college, Trask having both a pretty low floor and a low ceiling.

Well I think you are very wrong about Trask.
I've looked very closely at this QB class and I think he has a very good chance to be successful in the NFL.
After Lawrence I don't see a gap between the next highest rated and the others I mention.
The one I wouldn't draft is Fields.

Itssoeasy · 07-03-2021 3:40pm

With the cap dropping free agency will be more nuts than usual. I think the new Texans GM is in an awful position because he can’t be seen to just be caving in to desean Watson’s position (whether there is merit or not) because every time a Texans player after that will just use watsons stance. Bill O’ Brien should get the blame for this mess both on and off the field. Also, that personal gob****e isn’t far below BO’B. Watson to me is the lynchpin to the QB free agency merry go round.

Foxtrol · 07-03-2021 4:36pm

eagle eye wrote: »

Well I think you are very wrong about Trask.
I've looked very closely at this QB class and I think he has a very good chance to be successful in the NFL.
After Lawrence I don't see a gap between the next highest rated and the others I mention.
The one I wouldn't draft is Fields.

That is some goal post shifting.

I would have no problem with you making a claim Trask has a very good chance of being successful in the NFL, however what you did instead was to ridiculously say 'there is not much between' Trask and Herbert - a QB with a way higher ceiling due to his athleticism, that was seen for two years running to be a much higher regarded talent, who ended up being drafted 6th and then went on to exceed those high expectations.

I'd disagree with you that they is a Lawrence tier and then all the other 7 or so QBs are all about the same. There is clearly tiers within that other group.

Trask can be a passable NFL QB if he goes to the right place, if not he'll be terrible. That can be the case for a lot of players but it is especially the case for him due to his physical limitations and how the game has evolved away from his type of QB.

Foxtrol · 07-03-2021 4:39pm

Itssoeasy wrote: »

With the cap dropping free agency will be more nuts than usual. I think the new Texans GM is in an awful position because he can’t be seen to just be caving in to desean Watson’s position (whether there is merit or not) because every time a Texans player after that will just use watsons stance. Bill O’ Brien should get the blame for this mess both on and off the field. Also, that personal gob****e isn’t far below BO’B. Watson to me is the lynchpin to the QB free agency merry go round.

Once the cap is announced it is going to be crazy with guys getting cut.

BOB has a lot of blame but the problems clearly come from the owner.

Can't see why Nick Caserio took the job there, it is a no win situation for them and even if he does everything perfectly it'll be a long road to the team being decent

The_Honeybadger · 07-03-2021 5:18pm

Foxtrol wrote: »

Once the cap is announced it is going to be crazy with guys getting cut.

BOB has a lot of blame but the problems clearly come from the owner.

Can't see why Nick Caserio took the job there, it is a no win situation for them and even if he does everything perfectly it'll be a long road to the team being decent

Have they given a date for the cap announcement yet? Free agency is only a week away, seems crazy that they haven’t been able to put a figure on it by now, albeit I’m sure all teams have laid out multiple scenario plans. I can’t imagine the anxiety that some of the players must be feeling at this stage, particularly the mid level guys. I’m sure they’d love to just get on with it.

Agree on Caserio, the only thing anybody can do there is fail. I suppose you get a nice paycheque doing it and he probably won’t get much blame given what he walked in to, but still.

I can see them digging their heels in with Watson, ultimately dragging the whole thing on in to the season and eroding his trade value. If they get a good offer before the draft they should take it. Doesn’t look like he will play for them again under that ownership. Crazy.

eagle eye · 07-03-2021 5:38pm

Foxtrol wrote:

That is some goal post shifting.

There's no goalpost shifting

Foxtrol wrote:

I would have no problem with you making a claim Trask has a very good chance of being successful in the NFL, however what you did instead was to ridiculously say 'there is not much between' Trask and Herbert - a QB with a way higher ceiling due to his athleticism, that was seen for two years running to be a much higher regarded talent, who ended up being drafted 6th and then went on to exceed those high expectations.

I still say that he's very like Herbert in the pocket. I've agreed that Herbert is more athletic but he doesn't use it very often.

Foxtrol wrote:

I'd disagree with you that they is a Lawrence tier and then all the other 7 or so QBs are all about the same. There is clearly tiers within that other group.

Lawrence and Joe Burrow last year are the safest picks since Andrew Luck.
There's nobody else in that class. After that we have athletic QB's and then some pocket passers but there's risks attached to them all.
I have my own favourites in that group but that's irrelevant here.

Foxtrol wrote:

Trask can be a passable NFL QB if he goes to the right place, if not he'll be terrible. That can be the case for a lot of players but it is especially the case for him due to his physical limitations and how the game has evolved away from his type of QB.

Tom Brady just led the Buccaneers to the Superbowl. Joe Burrow was the first pick in the draft last year.
So what type of QB has the game evolved away from?

07-03-2021 7:24pm

Foxtrol wrote: »

No issue with you saying QBs are under or over rated, that is just normal opinions, but what I call BS on is trying to equate a player that was analyzed by nearly every pundit as being an early first round pick, who then went on to exceed most expectations with another QB that is no where in his league coming out of college, Trask having both a pretty low floor and a low ceiling.

I mean there are regularly high rated first round picks that don't pan out. I dont see why someone making their own analasys is such an issue. If someone said dak prescott would be better than jarred goff your have laughed at them then

Foxtrol · 07-03-2021 11:25pm

The_Honeybadger wrote: »

Have they given a date for the cap announcement yet? Free agency is only a week away, seems crazy that they haven’t been able to put a figure on it by now, albeit I’m sure all teams have laid out multiple scenario plans. I can’t imagine the anxiety that some of the players must be feeling at this stage, particularly the mid level guys. I’m sure they’d love to just get on with it.

Agree on Caserio, the only thing anybody can do there is fail. I suppose you get a nice paycheque doing it and he probably won’t get much blame given what he walked in to, but still.

I can see them digging their heels in with Watson, ultimately dragging the whole thing on in to the season and eroding his trade value. If they get a good offer before the draft they should take it. Doesn’t look like he will play for them again under that ownership. Crazy.

I'm presuming it has to be tomorrow for the cap. Tuesday is the deadline for franchise tag and I can't believe they'll go past that deadline without giving the league clarity on what they are dealing with

Foxtrol · 08-03-2021 4:14pm

eagle eye wrote: »

There's no goalpost shifting

I still say that he's very like Herbert in the pocket. I've agreed that Herbert is more athletic but he doesn't use it very often.

The difference in arm strength is visible practically every time Herbert throws the ball.

Lawrence and Joe Burrow last year are the safest picks since Andrew Luck.
There's nobody else in that class. After that we have athletic QB's and then some pocket passers but there's risks attached to them all.
I have my own favourites in that group but that's irrelevant here.

That is at best an incredibly lazy take.

It is like saying in the NFL now there is Mahomes and the next 10 QBs are on the same tier - all with their own issues.

Tom Brady just led the Buccaneers to the Superbowl. Joe Burrow was the first pick in the draft last year.
So what type of QB has the game evolved away from?

So Trask is now also comparable to Brady and Burrow... :rolleyes:

- Burrow had a complete different tier of mobility than Trask.
- Burrow and a 43 year old Brady have far stronger arms than Trask (even with Burrow not having a 'strong arm' for the NFL).
- Brady (obviously) and Burrow have much better processing time and decision making.

Name the last successful rookie QB with a weak NFL arm and basically statuesque in the pocket?

Foxtrol · 08-03-2021 4:18pm

Ivy Better Rumba wrote: »

I mean there are regularly high rated first round picks that don't pan out. I dont see why someone making their own analasys is such an issue. If someone said dak prescott would be better than jarred goff your have laughed at them then

Again, I've no problem with someone making their own analysis but similarly I'm allowed to call that analysis nonsense if that was what it appears to be to me. Even if I agreed with the level of talent for Trask, the two have completely different athletic profiles - it is like comparing a slow jump ball WR to someone like Tyreek Hill due to some 'eye test' of how good their hands are.

I've had a near annual discussion/disagreement with that poster regarding QBs, they like the pocket passer and seem to ignore athleticism - for example two years ago they banged the drum that Haskins should have been the #1 pick and Murray shouldn't have even been picked in the top 10. Similarly, they claimed Mike White might be a better QB than Dak - just prior to him being cut and moving onto the practice squads since then. At least in the case of White and Haskins they both have strong arms, for Trask we can't even say that.

BonnieSituation · 08-03-2021 4:47pm

Foxtrol wrote: »

Again, I've no problem with someone making their own analysis but similarly I'm allowed to call that analysis nonsense if that was what it appears to be to me. Even if I agreed with the level of talent for Trask, the two have completely different athletic profiles - it is like comparing a slow jump ball WR to someone like Tyreek Hill due to some 'eye test' of how good their hands are.

I've had a near annual discussion/disagreement with that poster regarding QBs, they like the pocket passer and seem to ignore athleticism - for example two years ago they banged the drum that Haskins should have been the #1 pick and Murray shouldn't have even been picked in the top 10. Similarly, they claimed Mike White might be a better QB than Dak - just prior to him being cut and moving onto the practice squads since then. At least in the case of White and Haskins they both have strong arms, for Trask we can't even say that.

And there's always the fawning over Stidham that we should never ever overlook...

ELM327 · 08-03-2021 5:12pm

Stidham has had very little outings for NE which speaks for itself really.
And in those that he did play he turned the ball over.

Badabing · 08-03-2021 5:14pm

Bears Bobby Massie to be FA. Strange decision

cosatron · 08-03-2021 5:24pm

Badabing wrote: »

Bears Bobby Massie to be FA. Strange decision

ryan pace and strange decision are an exclusive partnership.

letowski · 08-03-2021 5:36pm

Badabing wrote: »

Bears Bobby Massie to be FA. Strange decision

I think were going to see a few surprise cuts given the franchises will only be working with ~$185m (or lower) salary cap this year.

This will be the most interesting FA in years imo.

eagle eye · 09-03-2021 12:15am

Foxtrol wrote:

That is at best an incredibly lazy take.

Yet another insult.

Foxtrol wrote:

So Trask is now also comparable to Brady and Burrow...

I'm talking about pocket passer but you try to make it out that I'm putting him on their level. That's pathetic.
You said the game has evolved away from that type of Quarterback and I called you on it but you don't even respond to that. Instead you try and move the goalposts and claim I'm putting Trask on the same level as Brady and Burrow which I never did.

Stop embarrassing yourself.

eagle eye · 09-03-2021 12:21am

Foxtrol wrote:

I've had a near annual discussion/disagreement with that poster regarding QBs, they like the pocket passer and seem to ignore athleticism - for example two years ago they banged the drum that Haskins should have been the #1 pick and Murray shouldn't have even been picked in the top 10. Similarly, they claimed Mike White might be a better QB than Dak - just prior to him being cut and moving onto the practice squads since then. At least in the case of White and Haskins they both have strong arms, for Trask we can't even say that.

Let's clear this up.
I wasn't aware of Haskins off field issues. Thanks makes a huge difference that I couldn't have known about.
In hindsight, are you saying that Kyler Murray to this point is a good no.1 draft pick?.
As for Mike White, I only said I'd love to see him get a shot and that you'd never know how good he could be. I never said he was as good as Dak just that there's always the possibility.

letowski · 09-03-2021 12:57am

Prescott 4y/$160m $126m g

Going rate I suppose.

The_Honeybadger · 09-03-2021 1:04am

letowski wrote: »

Prescott 4y/$160m $126m g

Going rate I suppose.

They really needed to wrap that up one way or the other, it’s dragged on too long. Glad they got it done so we won’t have to hear about it from now until the end of the 2021 season.

Xavi6 · 09-03-2021 1:07am

$75 million in year one, not bad!

Foxtrol · 09-03-2021 1:25am

eagle eye wrote: »

Yet another insult.

Sorry it hurts your feelings but saying one guy is the best and putting everyone else in the same bucket is at best laziness (the other option is that you have no ability at all to rate players). Even if you don't want to rank each players, there are still clearly tiers.

I'm talking about pocket passer but you try to make it out that I'm putting him on their level. That's pathetic.
You said the game has evolved away from that type of Quarterback and I called you on it but you don't even respond to that. Instead you try and move the goalposts and claim I'm putting Trask on the same level as Brady and Burrow which I never did.

Stop embarrassing yourself.

You're only pointing out the flaws in your point of view by bringing in the elite of playing the game that way - Brady. The fact that you had to shoehorn Burrow as a 'pocket passer' again shows how week your argument is - he has far superior athleticism and regularly moves outside of the pocket and can scramble.

You're wrong with Trask for the same reason you were wrong on Haskins and White - being a 'pocket passer' can work but you have to be elite at everything that requires and then have the luck to end up in the right situation to support you (at minimum a good OL and OC).

My question that you refused to answer highlights how the game has evolved - 'Name the last successful rookie QB with a weak NFL arm and basically statuesque in the pocket?' I could even take away the weak arm piece and you'd you'd struggle to put a list together over the last 5 or maybe even 10 years.

Foxtrol · 09-03-2021 1:28am

The_Honeybadger wrote: »

They really needed to wrap that up one way or the other, it’s dragged on too long. Glad they got it done so we won’t have to hear about it from now until the end of the 2021 season.

No tag clause as well means he'll be in for another big contract. The guy deserves it from the way the Jones treated him - feel they never got over how lucky they were to draft him and couldn't face paying a later round QB.

Couldn't agree more on seeing the back of those stories but I'm not lucking forward to the 'Dak didn't deserve the money' takes after his first bad game.

eagle eye · 09-03-2021 8:28am

Foxtrol wrote:

My question that you refused to answer highlights how the game has evolved - 'Name the last successful rookie QB with a weak NFL arm and basically statuesque in the pocket?' I could even take away the weak arm piece and you'd you'd struggle to put a list together over the last 5 or maybe even 10 years.

You've said basically nothing in all that post. You still haven't explained what type of QB the game has moved away from
Now you throw in bad pocket presence and footwork it seems.
Trask is good in the pocket. He's an intelligent QB who's very accurate in the short and medium range. He has an arm too, there's just question marks over his accuracy on deep balls. Based on what I've seen from him he can make it in the NFL.
And this thing about being out in the right system applies to pretty much every QB. If you put a running QB into a team that can't run block he's in big trouble. If you put a pocket passer into a team that can't pass block he's in trouble. And that's not even considering the weapons available.

eagle eye · 09-03-2021 8:30am

Is Dak Prescott fully recovered from his injury?
I don't understand why you'd sign a guy who had such a bad injury to such a big contract before you are confident he is healthy.

Mr. Guappa · 09-03-2021 8:31am

Titans trading last year's first round pick Isaiah Wilson to the Dolphins for a 2021 7th rounder. The Dolphins also get a 2022 7th. Jeepers, what a bust.

The_Honeybadger · 09-03-2021 10:41am

Foxtrol wrote: »

No tag clause as well means he'll be in for another big contract. The guy deserves it from the way the Jones treated him - feel they never got over how lucky they were to draft him and couldn't face paying a later round QB.

Couldn't agree more on seeing the back of those stories but I'm not lucking forward to the 'Dak didn't deserve the money' takes after his first bad game.

Yeah they hit the jackpot with that pick really, a lot of teams had taken him off their board by all accounts, albeit he was still massively underrated. He’d probably have gone in the 2nd or early 3rd without the DUI before the draft.

Looking at the deal they simply had to get it done because they’d have been really stretched to tag him again, 2021 cap hit is only $25m now which is about as good as you could hope for with any decent QB. Not too bad all around

That Zeke contract though ........

D9Male · 09-03-2021 11:00am

Zeke contract is a disaster alright. As eagle eye says, you would not be sure that the Cowboys know what they are doing; injury concerns can't have fully evaporated.

Shedite27 · 09-03-2021 11:08am

eagle and foxtrol, can ye move it to PM and stop clogging this

adrian522 · 09-03-2021 11:18am

MOD NOTE: Please keep your comments respectful. Do not refer to opposing options as nonsense. if you can't be civil in your posts then please do not post.

09-03-2021 11:39am

That dak deal makes sense big payout year one where they would have had to pay him.either way. Then two years at a market rate and a big drop.off for year 4. The no tag clause surprised me.

The big issue with the team is they paid a rb. More and more we are seeing that you just can't do that (perhaps derrick henry will be the exception) I feel like they are going to target that 4th year of low cap to go all but they need to absoloutly nail their defensive draft picks going forward

ELM327 · 09-03-2021 11:50am

Especially in a low cap year, anyone that paid a non key position (like RB) big money is going to find it hard to pay everyone else.

el Fenomeno · 09-03-2021 12:31pm

Pats are trading for Trent Brown. Hopefully he's as good as he was last time around.

Probably means Thuney is gone, with Wynn moving to guard. Or maybe Cannon isn't coming back after all.

ELM327 · 09-03-2021 12:35pm

He was a part of that great running offense in the playoffs a couple years ago. We need that again so I'm happy with the trade once we dont overpay

el Fenomeno · 09-03-2021 12:46pm

I'm sure Mike Reiss is delighted to interview him again

Mr. Guappa · 09-03-2021 2:34pm

ELM327 wrote: »

He was a part of that great running offense in the playoffs a couple years ago. We need that again so I'm happy with the trade once we dont overpay

We have up a 5th, and get a 7th back. He's reworked his deal too, and will be a FA next year.

Probably means Cannon is not coming back, you'd have to think, and Onwenu kicking inside to take Thuney's spot at Guard. Either way, we'd plenty of uncertainty on the OL so he is a great addition.

adrian522 · 09-03-2021 5:34pm

Cam Robinson franchise tagged by Jax, Godwin tagged by Tampa. Apparently.

That is one potential destination for Trent Williams off the list.

letowski · 09-03-2021 6:31pm

Kenny Golladay to hit the FA. Good player. He will attract plenty of teams.

markc91 · 09-03-2021 6:39pm

Hunter Henry gone too

eagle eye · 09-03-2021 6:39pm

letowski wrote:

Kenny Golladay to hit the FA. Good player. He will attract plenty of teams.

Massively talented player but coming off an injury troubled season. A season where he came back but went down again. I think that'll affect the offers he gets.

letowski · 09-03-2021 7:47pm

Allen Robinson tagged. I think a lot of fans from other teams are disappointed lol

Blut2 · 09-03-2021 8:10pm

The Cowboys had to do the Dak deal I guess, but they're going to be in real cap hell come 2022 because of it.

Assuming a $210mn cap (which is currently predicted but isn't guaranteed - theres a good chance the NFL'll try to spread the hit for 2021 across a few seasons apparently, which might make 2022 closer to $200mn):

Dak's cap hit will be $33.2mn, 15.89% of cap
DeMarcus Lawrence's cap hit will be $27mn, 12.92% of the cap
Amari Cooper's cap hit will be $22mn, 10.53% of the cap

Thats almost 40% of the cap taken up on those 3 players alone... The Cowboys are really going to struggle to pay any talent not on rookie contracts.

phatkev · 09-03-2021 8:50pm

Blut2 wrote: »

The Cowboys had to do the Dak deal I guess, but they're going to be in real cap hell come 2022 because of it.

Assuming a $210mn cap (which is currently predicted but isn't guaranteed - theres a good chance the NFL'll try to spread the hit for 2021 across a few seasons apparently, which might make 2022 closer to $200mn):

Dak's cap hit will be $33.2mn, 15.89% of cap
DeMarcus Lawrence's cap hit will be $27mn, 12.92% of the cap
Amari Cooper's cap hit will be $22mn, 10.53% of the cap

Thats almost 40% of the cap taken up on those 3 players alone... The Cowboys are really going to struggle to pay any talent not on rookie contracts.

I havent bothered to look, but I assume Elliotts would be a fair chunk as well?

D9Male · 09-03-2021 9:55pm

Zeke counts 13.7m against the cap this year, 16.5m in 2022.

VillaMad · 09-03-2021 10:09pm

Deadline has passed for franchise tags:

Franchise taged
Chris Godwin - WR - Tampa Bay
Justin Simmons - S - Denver
Allen Robinson - WR - Chicago
Cam Robinson - OT - Jacksonville
Leonard Williams - DE - New York Giants
Marcus Maye - S - New York Jets
Brandon Scherff - OG - Washington
Taylor Moton - OT - Carolina
Marcus Williams - S - New Orleans

Shedite27 · 09-03-2021 11:06pm

letowski wrote: »

Prescott 4y/$160m $126m g

Going rate I suppose.

Enjoy the Pro bowls Dak

https://twitter.com/NFL_Memes/status/1369401188504993795?s=20

Blut2 · 09-03-2021 11:25pm

phatkev wrote: »

I havent bothered to look, but I assume Elliotts would be a fair chunk as well?

Yup. Hes a $16.5mn cap hit for the 2022 season as D9Male said. Which would be bad value for money for any team given how productive low cost/rookie RBs are. But will be even more-so for the Cowboys when they'll have so much of their cap gone on Dak/Amari/DeMarcus Lawrence.

I think they're going to really struggle to make the numbers work.

el Fenomeno · 10-03-2021 1:22am

Malcolm Butler released also. Obviously in hindsight, the initial disappointment when we let him walk and brought Gilmore in was silly. Actually surprised to see that Butler is older than Gilmore too.

Jonnu Smith another big-ish name being let test FA.

10-03-2021 9:50am

Blut2 wrote: »

Yup. Hes a $16.5mn cap hit for the 2022 season as D9Male said. Which would be bad value for money for any team given how productive low cost/rookie RBs are. But will be even more-so for the Cowboys when they'll have so much of their cap gone on Dak/Amari/DeMarcus Lawrence.

I think they're going to really struggle to make the numbers work.

Think copper and Zeke have no garintees past this year though right? I'd wager cooper gone and a major restructure for both at the very least

Offseason 2021 - Trades, Free Agency, QB Carousel

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