Boxing betting thread

FTA69 · 27-06-2013 9:23pm

He has a 50% KO ratio against low calibre opponents, I wouldn't call him a puncher.

What do you make of 11/10 for a Geale decision over Barker?

megadodge · 28-06-2013 12:48am

FTA69 wrote: »

He has a 50% KO ratio against low calibre opponents, I wouldn't call him a puncher.

What do you make of 11/10 for a Geale decision over Barker?

Don't let records fool you, if you watch Matthews box you can see he really whacks with the right. Problem is he's just so fragile himself.

Anyway, Geale's fights have 'distance fight' written all over them and he has a high workrate which should offset Barker's better boxing, but I'm a little unsure of this one, I think it's going to be a lot closer than many think. I'll definitely be covering the distance options, with Geale on pts the best pick.

Big Ears · 28-06-2013 11:53am

Derry wasn't really a banger down at Featherweight, but at Lightweight he can punch. If you take his last 6 wins, 5 have come by stoppage (all within 6 rounds), and 3 were in the 1st. The one non stoppage came in a 3 round prizefighter fight, where imo in a full fight he'd have got the stoppage.

Regardless of stats and numbers,I believe Derry can whack a bit and Tommy Coyle will likely find this out very soon.

Strongbow10 · 28-06-2013 12:44pm

Golovkin to beat Macklin on points can be got at 5/1

I personally think he will win a competitive fight by UD.

el flaco · 28-06-2013 11:29pm

Paddy power are doing money back on round and group round betting if Macklin wins. Not sure that that includes alternative group round betting. Probably not.

FTA69 · 02-07-2013 12:45pm

5/2 for David Price to KO Thompson between rounds 7-12 and 5/4 for Price to finish him in rounds 1-6. I can see Price hiding behind the jab, Thompson running out of steam and Price scoring a TKO.

magma69 · 07-07-2013 1:08am

Just got in there and found out the result!

Ye probably won't believe me but I threw a score on Thomson to win by stoppage today @ 5/1 on Paddy Power. Those were insane odds given the fact he did exactly that just a few months ago.

FTA69 · 16-08-2013 4:17pm

Bets for the weekend:

Geale to win on points over Darren Barker - 11/8.

I live Barker a lot, but he isn't on the same level as the likes of Murray or Macklin in my eyes and there's more than a touch of hype about him going into this fight. He's tough but I think Geale is the better boxer and will win a decision here.

Cleverly to win on points over Kovalev - 6/4

If Cleverly holds his discipline I think he can win a handy decision here. If not it's lights out for him. Kovalev is a savage no doubt, but he's an unproven savage at that. Comparisons with Matthysse v Peterson are invalid as Lucas had already proved himself a capable boxer and had beaten (or been robbed against) superior opponents. We'll see on the night.

Strongbow10 · 16-08-2013 4:23pm

FTA69 wrote: »

Bets for the weekend:

Geale to win on points over Darren Barker - 11/8.

I live Barker a lot, but he isn't on the same level as the likes of Murray or Macklin in my eyes and there's more than a touch of hype about him going into this fight. He's tough but I think Geale is the better boxer and will win a decision here.

Cleverly to win on points over Kovalev - 6/4

If Cleverly holds his discipline I think he can win a handy decision here. If not it's lights out for him. Kovalev is a savage no doubt, but he's an unproven savage at that. Comparisons with Matthysse v Peterson are invalid as Lucas had already proved himself a capable boxer and had beaten (or been robbed against) superior opponents. We'll see on the night.

Really looking forward to Geale v Barker, I give Barker a great chance.

Don't agree that Murray and Macklin are better boxers, Barker is probably the best "boxer" of them all in fairness, his weakness is his body. He can never fully count on it, so doubts will always be there in the later rounds for him.

In my opinion he gave Martinez a really good scrap (possibly a peak version of Martinez aswell- something Murray and Macklin cannot say).

Macklin and Murray faired decently against Martinez also, but a poorer Maravilla really.

Geale is a good fighter but is definately the best shot Barker has at becoming champ. Being held in the states should ensure no home town decisions aswell.

magma69 · 17-08-2013 2:44am

Think Geale and Barker are very evenly matched so I'm putting a bet on the draw @ 23/1.

Doing a treble accumulator too.
Kovalev KO/TKO @ 2.37
Heffron @ 1.4
Szpillka @ 1.25

magma69 · 18-08-2013 12:38am

That eejit fella who made the "make some money thread" should follow me!

FTA69 · 18-08-2013 3:20am

magma69 wrote: »

That eejit fella who made the "make some money thread" should follow me!

Congrats, hopefully Geale'll get a decision or I'm down proper.

FTA69 · 18-08-2013 11:44am

Cleaned out, worst stint I had in the bookies in a long time.

FTA69 · 02-09-2013 3:40pm

Righto redemption bet. Double on Floyd to win a decision over Canelo (8/15) and Matthysse to spark out Judah (8/11).

Combined odds of 5/2. Banker.

FTA69 · 02-09-2013 8:32pm

Also Haye is most likely going to KO the bould Tyson Fury unfortunately. Here's the odds breakdown:

Haye rounds 1-6 is 6/4 and Haye rounds 7-12 is 10/3 which gives odds of around 6/4 for a Haye KO if you back those two options. Bargain odds. Another banker.

Johner · 03-09-2013 12:46pm

FTA69 wrote: »

Also Haye is most likely going to KO the bould Tyson Fury unfortunately. Here's the odds breakdown:

Haye rounds 1-6 is 6/4 and Haye rounds 7-12 is 10/3 which gives odds of around 6/4 for a Haye KO if you back those two options. Bargain odds. Another banker.

If the fight does get to rounds 7-12 I'd give Fury a great chance, don't think it will go past the first couple though.

djhaxman · 03-09-2013 10:46pm

FTA69 wrote: »

Righto redemption bet. Double on Floyd to win a decision over Canelo (8/15) and Matthysse to spark out Judah (8/11).

Combined odds of 5/2. Banker.

I'll be having some of that, does seem like a great bet.

Senor Frog · 07-09-2013 4:15pm

anyone seen much of beltran? he is 4.5/1 to win against burns... who hasn't looked great by any stretch in his last few...

Big Ears · 07-09-2013 4:42pm

Senor Frog wrote: »

anyone seen much of beltran? he is 4.5/1 to win against burns... who hasn't looked great by any stretch in his last few...

?, I think you mean last one.
He looked bloody terrific against Kevin Mitchell in his fight before that (best he's looked in his career), and he looked very good in his two previous fights before that vs Paulus Moses and Michael Katsidis.

I've seen a bit of Beltran, he's good and will test Burns early, applying pressure. But I feel as the fight progresses Burns will be able to keep his range and outbox Beltran from the outside. That wasn't an option against Gonzalez, who was rangier and a damn sight slicker than Beltran, although that's not to say Beltran is crude cause he's not (most of the time).

Real test for Burns though and at 4.5/1 I suppose it's a pretty decent bet, but I'm favouring Burns.

Senor Frog · 07-09-2013 4:51pm

ya i was referring to his last fight when i said he hadn't looked great. Your right regarding the Mitchell fight , I remember being genuinely surprised in the manner he won that, i thought mitchell might have had too much for him....

Just thinking it might be worth the bet seems as you said Beltran will be in it early and burns doesn't seem to like to take a backwards step even if it is what he should do ....

magma69 · 10-09-2013 12:42pm

Trout to beat Lara @ evens
Galahad to beat Dickens @ 1/2
Mathysse by TKO/KO @ 8/11
Mayweather by points @ 4/7

Paddy Power.

20 snots returns over 162. :cool:

FTA69 · 10-09-2013 3:19pm

Is the Trout fight definitely on?

el flaco · 10-09-2013 3:30pm

FTA69 wrote: »

Is the Trout fight definitely on?

That fight still hasn't been confirmed for any date as far as I was aware. It's certainly not on this weekend. Unless they spring it by surprise before the Matthysse fight, which would actually be pretty cool.

magma69 · 11-09-2013 7:53pm

el flaco wrote: »

That fight still hasn't been confirmed for any date as far as I was aware. It's certainly not on this weekend. Unless they spring it by surprise before the Matthysse fight, which would actually be pretty cool.

Bollix. Why do PP have up it then! :mad:

Just gonna go for the treble so. Not great value in it but a relatively safe bet imo.

DuckHook · 13-09-2013 3:37pm

David Haye in RDS 1-6 @ 6/4 Haye will connect and i fancy him to have to much ability for Fury so a nice bet on an early finish @ 6/4 is a fair price.

magma69 · 17-10-2013 5:57pm

Willie Casey is 1.72 on Paddy Power against Marco McCullagh.

Excellent odds imo.

Henno30 · 18-10-2013 12:18am

Alvarado is available by 9/4 to win by decision on Saturday night. Ruslan 9/4 to win by stoppage. Which is the smarter bet here?

Big Ears · 18-10-2013 12:22am

Henno30 wrote: »

Alvarado is available by 9/4 to win by decision on Saturday night. Ruslan 9/4 to win by stoppage. Which is the smarter bet here?

I think Provodnikov will wear him down, down the stretch and get the stoppage.
Great fight though, good chance to become a FOTY contender.

richierichballs · 18-10-2013 9:52am

can't wait to hear more of flannas useless tips lol

Henno30 · 18-10-2013 6:04pm

Big Ears wrote: »

I think Provodnikov will wear him down, down the stretch and get the stoppage.
Great fight though, good chance to become a FOTY contender.

I think Alvarado's movement and footwork have been somewhat overrated because his biggest fight was against such a plodder in Rios. By contrast, Provodnikov demonstrated his ability to cut off the ring against a legit elite operator in Bradley. If Provodnikov could apply that kind of pressure against someone on that level then you'd have to think he's going to be a real handful for a comparatively mediocre boxer like Alvarado.

The counter-argument would be that Provodnikov spent long stretches of that fight struggling to get anywhere near Bradley, and it's possible that his best moments had as much to do with Bradley's recklessness as his own footwork and ring IQ.

Fully agree that it should be a very entertaining match-up in any case. Should be fun to watch.

magma69 · 30-10-2013 8:17pm

Mike Perez @ 5/6 on Paddy Power.

richierichballs · 22-11-2013 1:38pm

pac_man wrote: »

I Think the Froch fight is over-hyped and Rios is one dimensional.
So a Froch Pacman KO double will get you in around 6/4. Anyone bet against this?

Froch KO for sure,
If I was going to bet on Pac-Rios I'd prob go with the same,
saying that Rios has a good chin and we still don't know if the Bradley KO Pac suffered has taken its toll on him.

el flaco · 22-11-2013 1:43pm

pac_man wrote: »

I Think the Froch fight is over-hyped and Rios is one dimensional.
So a Froch Pacman KO double will get you in around 6/4. Anyone bet against this?

I agree about the Pacman fight. Rios will probably be like a human punching bag for Pacquiao and I while I don't necessarily see Rios getting flattened I can see the ref waving it off.

From a betting perspective I'd be worried that Groves will be on the run and Froch might find him tough to pin down. At 4/6 I'm not sure I give Froch a >60% chance of knocking him out. Might be one best-suited to the in-running market?

Backing KO's really adds to the excitement though

megadodge · 22-11-2013 7:36pm

el flaco wrote: »

I agree about the Pacman fight. Rios will probably be like a human punching bag for Pacquiao and I while I don't necessarily see Rios getting flattened I can see the ref waving it off.

From a betting perspective I'd be worried that Groves will be on the run and Froch might find him tough to pin down. At 4/6 I'm not sure I give Froch a >60% chance of knocking him out. Might be one best-suited to the in-running market?

Backing KO's really adds to the excitement though

I agree. It's not a good price. In-play could well be the best way forward.

However, at odds of over 7/1 on Betfair I really think a small wager on Groves on points is a good value bet.

FTA69 · 03-12-2013 2:08pm

Malinaggi points and Barker points double at 13/8 each works out around 6/1. Worth a tenner in my book.

Wild_Dogger · 05-12-2013 11:52pm

What a weekend of boxing betting that lies ahead !

I would consider adding 'Lara by points @ 15/8' to the accumulator

I can't find odds for the James Kirkland fight ?!

FTA69 · 06-12-2013 1:36pm

pac_man wrote: »

My only issue is when Sturm fights, his fights are hard to score because of that high guard and any fights that go the distance are usually close fights.Still think that double offers good value.

Couple that with the fact he has received robbery decisions in Germany before.

megadodge · 06-12-2013 6:59pm

FTA69 wrote: »

Couple that with the fact he has received robbery decisions in Germany before.

True, but he has been at the end of bad decisions in Germany also. Murray was lucky to get a draw and Soliman definitely shouldn't have got the decision. Even Geale's fight could have gone either way.

I think it's a very strong possibility that the fight will go the distance and be close, so maybe cover the distance options (incl. my favourite - the draw cover bet).

Actually you could say the same with the Lara/Troutt fight.

Actually you could say the same with the Malignaggi/Judah fight.

Wild_Dogger · 07-12-2013 9:04pm

Actually you could say the same about the Devon Alexander vs Shawn Porter fight.

magma69 · 13-12-2013 9:44am

I'm backing Broner on points at 6/4 and Maidana by stoppage at 7/1. Don't think Broner is much of a puncher at 147 but his style matches up wll to Maidana so a points decision is likely imo. On the other hand, he's in with a strong, bigger guy who is a good puncher so I think straddling at at 7/1 stoppage is wise.

If Broner stops him which is likelier than Maidana getting a decision, I'll be taking a big hit.

megadodge · 13-12-2013 10:43pm

magma69 wrote: »

I'm backing Broner on points at 6/4 and Maidana by stoppage at 7/1. Don't think Broner is much of a puncher at 147 but his style matches up wll to Maidana so a points decision is likely imo. On the other hand, he's in with a strong, bigger guy who is a good puncher so I think straddling at at 7/1 stoppage is wise.

If Broner stops him which is likelier than Maidana getting a decision, I'll be taking a big hit.

I agree on Broner on points being the pick here. He's not the puncher his stats would suggest - at least at welter he's not. He has the better skills but I don't see him stopping Maidana (barring injury obviously). Maidana, despite occasionally looking iffy to the body, is seriously hard. I'd absolutely LOOOOOOVE to see him win this, particularly by punishing round after punishing round, but Broner on points at 6/4 is actually decent value, where did you get it?

SRFC · 13-12-2013 11:43pm

I like the points bet on Broner,he couldnt K.O pauli malanaggi so he wont be knocking out this warrior in Maidana,he will more than likely drop him once or twice but he wont be stopped imo 6/4 is a good bet,either way if its close the judges wont be denying the up and comer prospect $$$$$$$4

gene_tunney · 15-12-2013 1:27pm

magma69 wrote: »

I'm backing Broner on points at 6/4 and Maidana by stoppage at 7/1. Don't think Broner is much of a puncher at 147 but his style matches up wll to Maidana so a points decision is likely imo. On the other hand, he's in with a strong, bigger guy who is a good puncher so I think straddling at at 7/1 stoppage is wise.

If Broner stops him which is likelier than Maidana getting a decision, I'll be taking a big hit.

Nasty. Commiserations.

weemcd · 15-12-2013 6:13pm

That Maidana KO was so close, as soon as the fight started I was annoyed I hadn't had a small bet on it

Wild_Dogger · 15-12-2013 11:33pm

I had Maidana to win by KO @ 7/1

Was hopping off my seat here at 4am

magma69 · 18-12-2013 2:43pm

gene_tunney wrote: »

Nasty. Commiserations.

It was a small comfort that I got to see Broner humbled at least. Had Broner knocked him out, I'd be on suicide watch! :pac:

weemcd · 14-02-2014 8:57pm

pac_man wrote: »

Tyson Fury just to be knocked down tomorrow @ 6/1 doesn't seem like a bad bet. Lad he is fighting can bang, is a southpaw and knocked down Pulev in his last fight. Fury doesn't seem to be in shape for this one and his chin is questionable.

Fury weight in at 274 pounds?!!

You might be onto something there, Fury would be gassing hard if this goes past 5 rounds, and I've always said he is begging to be knocked out(down) with his style. Cunningham did it last time out.

Where is that bet?

weemcd · 15-02-2014 3:23am

Fury leaves his chin very vulnerable sometimes. I think he likes to brawl. Overweight (compared to his normal fighting weight) makes me think about the knockdown.

magma69 · 15-02-2014 3:10pm

pac_man wrote: »

Tyson Fury just to be knocked down tomorrow @ 6/1 doesn't seem like a bad bet. Lad he is fighting can bang, is a southpaw and knocked down Pulev in his last fight. Fury doesn't seem to be in shape for this one and his chin is questionable.

13/2 on Paddy Power. Great shout man. Gonna do that myself.

Edit. See it's gone to 11/2 now.

Joeseph Balls · 15-02-2014 6:40pm

I know its no comparision but he did weigh in with runners, tracksuit, hoody, hat etc on.
Anyway, il hop on this bet.

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