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Cold Spell Prospects and Discussion (January + Early Feb 2012)

13567…35

Comments

  • #102
    Deep Easterly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    Wild Bill wrote: »

    I hate the f****** things! :mad:

    OK OK!! :D

    You are right SB re the wind and although a rotten summer with nagging westerlies on nearly every day of the season, it was very dry which probably didn't help with little if any quality sunshine.


  • #103
    delw
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,655 ✭✭✭delw


    eskimocat wrote: »
    I wonder if those were the charts that were causing MT the bother.. he mentioned something earlier in the week about a possible flip flop scenario, which, if it came down the side of the flip then we might see something building of a much colder nature... if it flopped, well the word speaks for itself..
    was thinking the same eskimocat,high pushing up to Greenland & if we'r on the wrong side of it,well everything to the east of us is cold,but that's just my untrained opinion but from the positive post's so far things are moving in the right direction :)


  • #104
    Pangea
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,565 ✭✭✭Pangea


    What caused the trees to go all brown was the seasalt carried by that storm in May, one half of hedges facing the sea direction was all brown , the other all green. don't quite recall if they got their colour back before autumn but they were brown for a long time.


  • #105
    fizzycyst
    Closed Accounts Posts: 399 ✭✭fizzycyst


    nilhg wrote: »
    You'll notice that the article refers to Winter and Spring barley and Spring Oats, all (well not all but a lot) the Winter oats died of frostbite, the areas which had least snow were worst affected.

    http://www.teagasc.ie/news/2011/201103-03.pdf

    Around here there were Elder bushes killed in the hedges and even big clumps of Briars were burnt right back to the roots.

    I didn't notice that first time. I suppose it all depends on what part of the country your in. Min posted yesterday about how Mayo had its wettest year in 25 years, yet Johnstown castle had its driest year in 40 years. Its amazing to see the extreme differences in such a small country.


  • #106
    Wild Bill
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,129 ✭✭✭Wild Bill


    Based on Trog's stats, Bray may be about to record the driest year in Ireland, ever, anywhere :cool:


  • #107
    pauldry
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,180 ✭✭✭pauldry


    why is this thread called possible cold spell mid january:confused:


  • #108
    TheMilkyPirate
    Registered Users Posts: 6,017 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    For a second there I thought I had clicked into the weather forum, My eyes must be deceiving me because with all the talk of leaves and bloody daffodils this is obviously the horticulture forum.


  • #109
    YouTookMyName
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,361 ✭✭✭YouTookMyName


    Sponge Bob wrote: »
    There was a big storm in late May/early June ( or was that 2 of them) that played puck with the foliage on the trees in Galway..really windburnt them. They were quite normal in mid May.

    The harsh december killed a lot of hedges and trees.


  • #110
    Wild Bill
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,129 ✭✭✭Wild Bill


    pauldry wrote: »
    why is this thread called possible cold spell mid january:confused:

    Thread naming is a dynamic process :D

    (see "Dublin Storm")


  • #111
    Redsunset
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    Possible Cold Spell Mid-January

    christmas-village.jpg


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  • #112
    Wild Bill
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,129 ✭✭✭Wild Bill


    redsunset wrote: »
    Possible Cold Spell Mid-January

    christmas-village.jpg

    Yikes!

    I have been using that exact pic as my "desktop background" for the past two weeks! ;)


  • #113
    Wild Bill
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,129 ✭✭✭Wild Bill


    What you have cut off on the right of the picture is the house on stilts over the river.

    I can't figure out why anyone would build such a structure in such a place :confused:


  • #114
    Trogdor
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,310 ✭✭✭Trogdor


    Wild Bill wrote: »
    Based on Trog's stats, Bray may be about to record the driest year in Ireland, ever, anywhere :cool:

    Unfortunately my stats are not that great with a good few holes in the data on occasions where the rain bucket got blocked up and wasn't recording properly. I've tried to fill in the gaps as best i can but that in combination with extremely temperamental software like "weather display" does not make them all that accurate unfortunately

    Anyway this thread has become a bit derailed. At least try to stick to discussion of what's in the thread title please! Feel free to start other topics for discussion of other weather related topics if they do not already exist but try to avoid going wildly off topic in existing ones:)


  • #115
    Wild Bill
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,129 ✭✭✭Wild Bill


    Here's the missing puzzling bit.....

    1259807372_1280x800_christmas-town-wallpaper-1.jpg

    :confused::confused::confused::confused::confused::confused:


  • #116
    Wild Bill
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,129 ✭✭✭Wild Bill


    trogdor wrote: »


    At least try to stick to discussion of what's in the thread title please!

    Ooops! My bad :o


  • #117
    darkman2
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    The 18z GFS not great for morale but stick with it. The important 00z's coming shortly and I suspect they will be rather nice.;)


  • #118
    Redsunset
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    darkman2 wrote: »
    The 18z GFS not great for morale but stick with it. The important 00z's coming shortly and I suspect they will be rather nice.;)

    I actually thought the 18z was a big stepping stone in the right direction,certainly up to the 168hrs on how heights were developing on both sides, Pacific+Atlantic.


  • #119
    darkman2
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    redsunset wrote: »
    I actually thought the 18z was a big stepping stone in the right direction,certainly up to the 168hrs on how heights were developing on both sides, Pacific+Atlantic.

    Yes, absolutely. Most here would find it pretty bad but the building blocks were very good as I alluded to earlier with my running commentary. Not good long term and we do need to see better heights nearer Greenland.Which is very possible at this stage. Or we just need things a little less progressive.


  • #120
    Redsunset
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    Yes looking back we were both running commentaries at the same time without realising, we was getting peeps excited :D


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  • #121
    TheMilkyPirate
    Registered Users Posts: 6,017 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    Not sure if i can last till the 00zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.....


  • #122
    Irish Steve
    Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators Posts: 6,522 Mod ✭✭✭✭Irish Steve


    Wild Bill wrote: »
    It ridded the country (mostly) of the hideous cordylines (cabbage palms) - it reduced populations of various bugs enormously.

    All good stuff.

    I hate the f****** things! :mad:

    We had a 20 year old specimen in our garden that after the winter was looking very sorry for itself, and when there was no evidence of life, it got attacked with the pruning saw and taken down to about 2 Ft stumps.

    To my surprise, the remnants have put shoots out in late summer, and it is starting to recover. Its going to take time, but as I don't hate it, that's not a problem.

    We've also got 2 potted bay trees, they also suffered very badly, both of them are pretty much at the stage where they need to be cut back to ground level and the new growth shaped, as the old growth is dead.

    Ideally, we want snow rather than severe frost, my rhubarb is already showing signs of shooting, and frost will not do that any good at all. We also planted some new crowns from Lidl, if they get frosted, they will probably be killed as they are so tender at the moment.

    The FI stuff is looking very thought provoking indeed, I may be very happy that I've just had to put new tyres on my 4x4:D

    Shore, if it was easy, everybody would be doin it.😁



  • #123
    Redsunset
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    Not a bad 10 day outlook, watch for Pacific heights trying to push across the pole.
    610day.03.gif


  • #124
    hotwhiskey
    Closed Accounts Posts: 592 ✭✭✭hotwhiskey


    Joe Bastardi just said on twitter confirming winter on its way to western Europe in about 10days. Quote: The flip is coming... and looks real and for some, may be spectacular.



  • #125
    blackius
    Closed Accounts Posts: 469 ✭✭blackius


    I wouldn't use the word confirming for heavens sake.

    Bastardi is great crack to read and insightfull but he does not know the future,he's going on an FI chart ffs!

    @BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi
    Winter coming to Western Europe in 10 days. Here is day 15 500 mb pic.twitter.com/RUPfFviG

    Oh and the quote you give above refers to his tweet on North america not Europe...


  • #126
    hotwhiskey
    Closed Accounts Posts: 592 ✭✭✭hotwhiskey


    blackius wrote: »
    I wouldn't use the word confirming for heavens sake.

    Bastardi is great crack to read and insightfull but he does not know the future,he's going on an FI chart ffs!

    @BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi
    Winter coming to Western Europe in 10 days. Here is day 15 500 mb pic.twitter.com/RUPfFviG

    Oh and the quote you give above refers to his tweet on North america not Europe...

    Sorry!! He said winter coming to W Europe. you are right he doesn't know the future or does anyone else thats why the charts are there to see a pattern forming over different runs. The models are there to used and 10 days out for me is not in coco land.

    Yes his last quote was on N America my mistake sorry.


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  • #127
    maquiladora
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Models aren't great this morning and some doom and gloom in the stratwarm thread on NW!

    The drama of model watching.


  • #128
    BEASTERLY
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭BEASTERLY


    maquiladora wrote: »
    Models aren't great this morning and some doom and gloom in the stratwarm thread on NW!

    The drama of model watching.

    Best ECM this winter imo.


  • #129
    derekon
    Registered Users Posts: 836 ✭✭✭derekon


    BEASTERLY wrote: »
    Best ECM this winter imo.

    I agree 100% Beasterly

    The ECM for the end of next week is very good with cold coming in from the east................interesting model watching ahead. It will switch back and forth however at least the Atlantic onslaught appears to be finally slowing down....:)

    D


  • #130
    BEASTERLY
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭BEASTERLY


    derekon wrote: »
    I agree 100% Beasterly

    The ECM for the end of next week is very good with cold coming in from the east................interesting model watching ahead. It will switch back and forth however at least the Atlantic onslaught appears to be finally slowing down....:)

    D

    If that ECM came off i think Wicklow, Wexford and South Dublin could get a few light snow showers. But it won't so lets hope it changes for the better :)


  • #131
    davidsr20
    Registered Users Posts: 769 ✭✭✭davidsr20


    Our winter is looking worse every day :( for the last month we were expecting this cold winter to start from 15-18 on but now the experts are saying its looking less likely ;( I really don't get it or is people just guessing!


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  • #132
    snow ghost
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,379 ✭✭✭snow ghost


    davidsr20 wrote: »
    Our winter is looking worse every day :( for the last month we were expecting this cold winter to start from 15-18 on but now the experts are saying its looking less likely ;( I really don't get it or is people just guessing!

    It's coming alright, the intensity of what is on its way is anybody's guess at this stage.


  • #133
    Icanseethewind
    Closed Accounts Posts: 15 ✭Icanseethewind


    Hello all,
    I would like to introduce myself. My name is Denis and I am from Co.Mayo. I am in my 60s and only recently learned how to use a computer (my wife has been using one for ten years but I only got interested last year there was a course in the local hall) I am a retired farmer and I know the signs of nature and over the years I have gotten to know all the signals that we can use to forecast the weather. I am not a mad buck as some people think but I like to use both science and nature to make predictions. I hope I can learn more on here and that ye may learn from me. I am very close to nature and know the signs. I hope I can contribute on here and I know ehat ye think, (my grandsons tell me all the time) that only science can tell the weather. Yes it can but so can nature....


  • #134
    cherryghost
    Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 17,135 Mod ✭✭✭✭cherryghost


    Icanseethewind wrote: »
    Hello all,
    I would like to introduce myself. My name is Denis and I am from Co.Mayo. I am in my 60s and only recently learned how to use a computer (my wife has been using one for ten years but I only got interested last year there was a course in the local hall) I am a retired farmer and I know the signs of nature and over the years I have gotten to know all the signals that we can use to forecast the weather. I am not a mad buck as some people think but I like to use both science and nature to make predictions. I hope I can learn more on here and that ye may learn from me. I am very close to nature and know the signs. I hope I can contribute on here and I know ehat ye think, (my grandsons tell me all the time) that only science can tell the weather. Yes it can but so can nature....

    Welcome to the forum! Always nice to see new faces here. So, give us your opinion what may or may not happen then :D A new outlook on scenarios is always welcome :)


  • #135
    snow ghost
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,379 ✭✭✭snow ghost


    Icanseethewind wrote: »
    Hello all,
    I would like to introduce myself. My name is Denis and I am from Co.Mayo. I am in my 60s and only recently learned how to use a computer (my wife has been using one for ten years but I only got interested last year there was a course in the local hall) I am a retired farmer and I know the signs of nature and over the years I have gotten to know all the signals that we can use to forecast the weather. I am not a mad buck as some people think but I like to use both science and nature to make predictions. I hope I can learn more on here and that ye may learn from me. I am very close to nature and know the signs. I hope I can contribute on here and I know ehat ye think, (my grandsons tell me all the time) that only science can tell the weather. Yes it can but so can nature....

    Welcome Denis.

    Nature's signals are very interesting relating to the weather and can certainly give indications of what may be happening. Science is possibly only just starting to study the way other animals are in tune with elements that create the weather. Take fish and their lateral line - a totally different sense than we humans have, so not something we readily understand, yet many that study fish behaviour will claim they are affected and respond to pressure changes, etc. So yeah very interesting stuff and one I'm sure we will learn more about through science in years to come.


  • #136
    TheMilkyPirate
    Registered Users Posts: 6,017 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    Icanseethewind wrote: »
    Hello all,
    I would like to introduce myself. My name is Denis and I am from Co.Mayo. I am in my 60s and only recently learned how to use a computer (my wife has been using one for ten years but I only got interested last year there was a course in the local hall) I am a retired farmer and I know the signs of nature and over the years I have gotten to know all the signals that we can use to forecast the weather. I am not a mad buck as some people think but I like to use both science and nature to make predictions. I hope I can learn more on here and that ye may learn from me. I am very close to nature and know the signs. I hope I can contribute on here and I know ehat ye think, (my grandsons tell me all the time) that only science can tell the weather. Yes it can but so can nature....

    Welcome denis, Everybody's opinion is welcome no matter how bonkers it may seem to some. I've a small interest in the nature side of things so look forward to hearing your thoughts over the coming weeks.


  • #137
    davidsr20
    Registered Users Posts: 769 ✭✭✭davidsr20


    Icanseethewind wrote: »
    Hello all,
    I would like to introduce myself. My name is Denis and I am from Co.Mayo. I am in my 60s and only recently learned how to use a computer (my wife has been using one for ten years but I only got interested last year there was a course in the local hall) I am a retired farmer and I know the signs of nature and over the years I have gotten to know all the signals that we can use to forecast the weather. I am not a mad buck as some people think but I like to use both science and nature to make predictions. I hope I can learn more on here and that ye may learn from me. I am very close to nature and know the signs. I hope I can contribute on here and I know ehat ye think, (my grandsons tell me all the time) that only science can tell the weather. Yes it can but so can nature....

    Welcome and is it going to snow soon :)


  • #138
    Wild Bill
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,129 ✭✭✭Wild Bill


    Denis - just be careful not to mention the weather effects on plants or animal life - that can be touchy around here :)


  • #139
    snaps
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,138 ✭✭✭snaps


    Well, ive just walked home from the pub, the mass/swarms of starlings making a noise in the trees is over whelming. Is this a sign of anything?


  • #140
    maquiladora
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Icanseethewind wrote: »
    Hello all,
    I would like to introduce myself. My name is Denis and I am from Co.Mayo. I am in my 60s and only recently learned how to use a computer (my wife has been using one for ten years but I only got interested last year there was a course in the local hall) I am a retired farmer and I know the signs of nature and over the years I have gotten to know all the signals that we can use to forecast the weather. I am not a mad buck as some people think but I like to use both science and nature to make predictions. I hope I can learn more on here and that ye may learn from me. I am very close to nature and know the signs. I hope I can contribute on here and I know ehat ye think, (my grandsons tell me all the time) that only science can tell the weather. Yes it can but so can nature....

    Welcome to the forum. I always like hearing about weather lore. I hope you'll enjoy the craic and discussion we have on here. :)


  • #141
    cherryghost
    Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 17,135 Mod ✭✭✭✭cherryghost


    snaps wrote: »
    Well, ive just walked home from the pub, the mass/swarms of starlings making a noise in the trees is over whelming. Is this a sign of anything?

    It means they don't like the smell of beer on your breath. I'd be careful if I were you.


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  • #142
    snow ghost
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,379 ✭✭✭snow ghost


    snaps wrote: »
    Well, ive just walked home from the pub, the mass/swarms of starlings making a noise in the trees is over whelming. Is this a sign of anything?

    Just that they are getting ready to roost and to possibly defecate down on top of any unwary passers by.

    Murmurations of starlings have been known to attack and kill humans but they say it is quick and painless, so I wouldn't be unduly worried.


  • #143
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    Icanseethewind wrote: »
    I am not a mad buck as some people think but I like to use both science and nature to make predictions. I hope I can learn more on here and that ye may learn from me. I am very close to nature and know the signs.
    If a Donegal Man can foretell from natures signs then there is no reason to assume that a Mayo Man would be any less on the ball. Most especially seeing as you told us straight up from the off.

    I very much look forward to seeing a post predicting an approximate week or fortnight away weather setup based on the antics of your local flora and fauna. :)


  • #144
    oisingeogho
    Registered Users Posts: 54 ✭✭oisingeogho


    It's been a long run of fairly mild weather, particularly for England and Wales with cold and snow this winter limited to Scotland in the main with just the occasional colder incursion further south. Is all that about to change though?

    In the Winter forecast the outlook was for milder December with a change of pattern arriving during January bringing colder weather, and there are some indications that the changes are now beginning to occur.

    Without getting too technical, it's all about the stratosphere and it's temperature - in summary a colder stratosphere means a stronger jetstream and more atlantic based weather for the UK, as we've seen in recent times. There are signs that the stratosphere is warming though, and that would increase the risk of some colder air making it's way toward the UK.

    As ever with the weather though, this is far from a straight forward process so there are most definitely no guarantees of significant cold arriving any time soon, but it does seem likely that less mild weather will be arriving in 7-10 days time & beyond that we'll really need to keep a close eye on developments.

    The forecasting models are giving some hints on the type of weather that could arrive in the latter part of their runs, but they're also chopping and changing with every update which gives some good clues as to just how uncertain the detail in the medium range outlook is.

    We'll obviously be keeping you up to date throughout...

    At shorter range, to start the upcoming week we'll be seeing a north, south split in place with some wet and windy weather affecting Scotland in particular during Monday. The wet weather fades the further south you head though with high pressure close by and it's likely that it's influence will spread north later in the week.

    Temperature wise it'll be a fairly mild start to the week with no frosts likely until the second part of the week - watch too for some fog patches in places.


  • #145
    ch750536
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,736 ✭✭✭ch750536


    Icanseethewind wrote: »
    Hello all,
    I would like to introduce myself. My name is Denis and I am from Co.Mayo. I am in my 60s and only recently learned how to use a computer (my wife has been using one for ten years but I only got interested last year there was a course in the local hall) I am a retired farmer and I know the signs of nature and over the years I have gotten to know all the signals that we can use to forecast the weather. I am not a mad buck as some people think but I like to use both science and nature to make predictions. I hope I can learn more on here and that ye may learn from me. I am very close to nature and know the signs. I hope I can contribute on here and I know ehat ye think, (my grandsons tell me all the time) that only science can tell the weather. Yes it can but so can nature....

    All sorts welcome here. If you're right, bonus! I personally think natural signs are there but we don't read things correctly.


  • #146
    Musicman2000
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,461 ✭✭✭Musicman2000


    oisingeogho wrote: »
    It's been a long run of fairly mild weather, particularly for England and Wales with cold and snow this winter limited to Scotland in the main with just the occasional colder incursion further south. Is all that about to change though?

    In the Winter forecast the outlook was for milder December with a change of pattern arriving during January bringing colder weather, and there are some indications that the changes are now beginning to occur.

    Without getting too technical, it's all about the stratosphere and it's temperature - in summary a colder stratosphere means a stronger jetstream and more atlantic based weather for the UK, as we've seen in recent times. There are signs that the stratosphere is warming though, and that would increase the risk of some colder air making it's way toward the UK.

    As ever with the weather though, this is far from a straight forward process so there are most definitely no guarantees of significant cold arriving any time soon, but it does seem likely that less mild weather will be arriving in 7-10 days time & beyond that we'll really need to keep a close eye on developments.

    The forecasting models are giving some hints on the type of weather that could arrive in the latter part of their runs, but they're also chopping and changing with every update which gives some good clues as to just how uncertain the detail in the medium range outlook is.

    We'll obviously be keeping you up to date throughout...

    At shorter range, to start the upcoming week we'll be seeing a north, south split in place with some wet and windy weather affecting Scotland in particular during Monday. The wet weather fades the further south you head though with high pressure close by and it's likely that it's influence will spread north later in the week.

    Temperature wise it'll be a fairly mild start to the week with no frosts likely until the second part of the week - watch too for some fog patches in places.

    The 12z runs have flipped again and dropped the easterly, a major turn around in 12 hours the models are really all over the place:mad:


  • #147
    maquiladora
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    12Z ECM is just in love with that high pressure!


  • #148
    Lucreto
    Registered Users Posts: 1,003 ✭✭✭Lucreto


    Musicman2000 wrote: »
    The 12z runs have flipped again and dropped the easterly, a major turn around in 12 hours the models are really all over the place:mad:

    It could change back again in the next 6 hours for all we know.

    I think it was M.T Cranium said last week the models will be all over the place.

    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=76308179&postcount=3146

    He seems to be right on the money.


  • #149
    TheMilkyPirate
    Registered Users Posts: 6,017 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    The easterly was premature and it wouldn't have lated more than a few days with such a strong PV. I'm still very happy with yesterday and todays output, All the signs are their. We still have height rises to our north and the vortex is weakening. Gfs 12z fantasy island has huge potential today.

    it may not be mid month but the cold is coming of that I'm positive.


  • #150
    Musicman2000
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,461 ✭✭✭Musicman2000


    baraca wrote: »
    The easterly was premature and it wouldn't have lated more than a few days with such a strong PV. I'm still very happy with yesterday and todays output, All the signs are their. We still have height rises to our north and the vortex is weakening. Gfs 12z fantasy island has huge potential today.

    it may not be mid month but the cold is coming of that I'm positive.

    It will come and you are right the signs are there, but the vortex really has to weaken over Greenland to allow any decent blocking, Patience required:)


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  • #151
    jirafa
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,467 ✭✭✭jirafa


    Detailed week ahead and outlook 8/1/12 From: WeatherSchool .................. http://youtu.be/Z7p40rBoaa4


This discussion has been closed.
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