Offseason 2021 - Trades, Free Agency, QB Carousel

markc91 · 02-02-2021 6:54pm

Foxtrol wrote: »

A 2nd round pick? I say that as someone who is higher on Cousins than what I generally read and hear. You might get some team that goes higher if they get desperate having no QB, missing out on other players in FA and draft, who are in a position to win now, and have cap space - like say the Colts. By the time that value is there though the Vikings wouldn't have time to replace Cousins.

Comparing Cousins to Stafford - he is older, doesn't have the potential ceiling, and has a significantly worse contract next year ($35m) that the new team has to fully guarantee on the 3rd day of the new season.

Add to that how Cousins is undervalued and generally crapped on by most of the media and fanbases so teams will likely get blow back and be under pressure if they give up a lot for him.

I dont see the move worthwhile on the Vikings side anyway unless they see themselves as a full rebuild - it means $20m in dead cap in a year when the cap is tight and there is a lot of competition for QBs.

I'm not 100% sure about what way cap works and dead cap etc. But if we were to get a first for cousins and then offer the texans 2 1sts some later picks and barr or hunter seeing as they seem to be looking for defensive starters. Would it work capwise? We would be very strong in the skill positions but still need an Oline and some good rookies on Defense. As you said could be more of a rebuild than a chance of winning now

Foxtrol · 02-02-2021 8:02pm

markc91 wrote: »

I'm not 100% sure about what way cap works and dead cap etc. But if we were to get a first for cousins and then offer the texans 2 1sts some later picks and barr or hunter seeing as they seem to be looking for defensive starters. Would it work capwise? We would be very strong in the skill positions but still need an Oline and some good rookies on Defense. As you said could be more of a rebuild than a chance of winning now

Vikings are now around $12m above the expected cap before contract restructures, cuts, or re-signing your guys hitting FA. Not a good situation but definitely more manageable than a lot of other teams.

Looking at that trade salary capwise for next year you'd be basically in the same position as now - trading Cousins you save $11m ($20m dead cap but you don't have his expected $31m hit) and Watson's cap hit post trade would be ~$11m.

Biggest problem, aside from my doubts of you getting a first for Cousins, is that I don't see the Texans even starting to negotiate at that offer. I'd expect the floor of a deal would be 3 1sts, a selection of 2nds and 3rds, and then those starters. There is also the issue of Watson wanting to go there - he has a no trade so it'll be interesting how the power dynamics between him and the Texans work and whether he pushes for certain teams or just anywhere but there.

To add, if you have any interest I'd advise reading up on the cap. It seems like a lot but it really helps in understanding what tools the teams have to use in FA/trades - though it does make watching a lot of talking heads insufferable as they bullsh1t about what is or isn't possible or likely.

markc91 · 02-02-2021 10:12pm

Foxtrol wrote: »

Vikings are now around $12m above the expected cap before contract restructures, cuts, or re-signing your guys hitting FA. Not a good situation but definitely more manageable than a lot of other teams.

Looking at that trade salary capwise for next year you'd be basically in the same position as now - trading Cousins you save $11m ($20m dead cap but you don't have his expected $31m hit) and Watson's cap hit post trade would be ~$11m.

Biggest problem, aside from my doubts of you getting a first for Cousins, is that I don't see the Texans even starting to negotiate at that offer. I'd expect the floor of a deal would be 3 1sts, a selection of 2nds and 3rds, and then those starters. There is also the issue of Watson wanting to go there - he has a no trade so it'll be interesting how the power dynamics between him and the Texans work and whether he pushes for certain teams or just anywhere but there.

To add, if you have any interest I'd advise reading up on the cap. It seems like a lot but it really helps in understanding what tools the teams have to use in FA/trades - though it does make watching a lot of talking heads insufferable as they bullsh1t about what is or isn't possible or likely.

Cheers for the breakdown that makes more sense to me now I will read up on them though, either way it'll be interesting to see if a trade happens im not against keeping cousins as I'm not sure Jimmy G is a huge upgrade.

D9Male · 03-02-2021 11:48am

Carr is reportedly on the trade block.

cosatron · 03-02-2021 12:37pm

D9Male wrote: »

Carr is reportedly on the trade block.

f**king hell, Gruden and Mayock are really burning the house down, if he goes true that mack, carr and copper traded out of the playoff team. Eagle eye will be in his element if he lands in New england

Oat23 · 04-02-2021 10:48am

cosatron wrote: »

f**king hell, Gruden and Mayock are really burning the house down, if he goes true that mack, carr and copper traded out of the playoff team. Eagle eye will be in his element if he lands in New england

What's to say they don't use Carr as part of a trade for Watson? I'm sure Gruden is trying to make that happen.

I don't see the logic in trading Carr unless it is part of a deal like that.

cosatron · 04-02-2021 11:18am

Oat23 wrote: »

What's to say they don't use Carr as part of a trade for Watson? I'm sure Gruden is trying to make that happen.

I don't see the logic in trading Carr unless it is part of a deal like that.

maybe, i think Gruden just isn't happy with him and wants to move up in the draft or get watson.

Itssoeasy · 04-02-2021 1:11pm

cosatron wrote: »

maybe, i think Gruden just isn't happy with him and wants to move up in the draft or get watson.

Well in grudens first season back with the raiders there was at times noticeable tension between himself and Carr. It wasn’t there this season from what I saw though.

ELM327 · 04-02-2021 3:23pm

Carr would be a lot more achievable for NE than the likes of a watson. We can't pay multiple first rounders when the team has so many holes.

Kev8360 · 05-02-2021 2:14pm

Oat23 wrote: »

What's to say they don't use Carr as part of a trade for Watson? I'm sure Gruden is trying to make that happen.

I don't see the logic in trading Carr unless it is part of a deal like that.

Don't think the Raiders have the leverage to trade for Watson, even if we were to give up the draft picks which would be insane given where we are in the rebuild the Texans are looking for defensive starters in any trade and I don't think the Raiders D has anyone they would want or that Gruden/Mayock can afford to give up.

also I cant say this enough - Carr is not the issue in LV -we have a terrible Defense. Improving on that and getting better output from our WR corp should be the only priority this offseason.

The_Honeybadger · 05-02-2021 2:57pm

Kev8360 wrote: »

Don't think the Raiders have the leverage to trade for Watson, even if we were to give up the draft picks which would be insane given where we are in the rebuild the Texans are looking for defensive starters in any trade and I don't think the Raiders D has anyone they would want or that Gruden/Mayock can afford to give up.

also I cant say this enough - Carr is not the issue in LV -we have a terrible Defense. Improving on that and getting better output from our WR corp should be the only priority this offseason.

I think you’d have to trade Carr for multiple picks first and then use that haul to trade for Watson along with some of the Raiders own picks. It’s a complicated way to do it and probably unlikely to fall that way. Carr should have a good market though? New England, Carolina and others would all be interested I would think. I’d agree he is not the issue and they need to build that defence up.

I’m not sure about the Texans wanting multiple defensive starters, that seems to be a theory floated by a Texans beat writer who is guessing just like the rest of us, the team have said nothing of the sort and are still stating they want to keep Watson as far as I am aware. Given the cost of taking on veteran players the Texans may well prefer to get draft picks and draft their own defenders also.

Kev8360 · 05-02-2021 4:53pm

The_Honeybadger wrote: »

I think you’d have to trade Carr for multiple picks first and then use that haul to trade for Watson along with some of the Raiders own picks. It’s a complicated way to do it and probably unlikely to fall that way. Carr should have a good market though? New England, Carolina and others would all be interested I would think. I’d agree he is not the issue and they need to build that defence up.

I’m not sure about the Texans wanting multiple defensive starters, that seems to be a theory floated by a Texans beat writer who is guessing just like the rest of us, the team have said nothing of the sort and are still stating they want to keep Watson as far as I am aware. Given the cost of taking on veteran players the Texans may well prefer to get draft picks and draft their own defenders also.

Yeah its hard to get a real idea of what the Texans would want as they don't want to trade him. He could very likely sit out next year and force a trade to someone and I am not convinced the Raiders would be a spot he wants to go (wont be a challenger in the immediate future even looking at it optimistically).

There are a lot of teams in need of a QB but they will have to put up a kings ransom to tempt Houston to the trading table.

but hey its John Gruden and the Raiders so who knows what we will do!

Foxtrol · 05-02-2021 5:07pm

The_Honeybadger wrote: »

I think you’d have to trade Carr for multiple picks first and then use that haul to trade for Watson along with some of the Raiders own picks. It’s a complicated way to do it and probably unlikely to fall that way. Carr should have a good market though? New England, Carolina and others would all be interested I would think. I’d agree he is not the issue and they need to build that defence up.

I’m not sure about the Texans wanting multiple defensive starters, that seems to be a theory floated by a Texans beat writer who is guessing just like the rest of us, the team have said nothing of the sort and are still stating they want to keep Watson as far as I am aware. Given the cost of taking on veteran players the Texans may well prefer to get draft picks and draft their own defenders also.

That beat writer could be floating an idea of his but he is well known for being very close to the team, so I doubt it is completely without any insight from someone at the team.

The reason why I suspect defensive players are mentioned is that very few teams have enough picks to get Watson straight up. There is a limit of years in the future you can give away picks so without brining players into the discussion you're limiting the market to the very few teams with multiple firsts. I'd say the Texans would be far more interested if they could get their hands on Chase Young or Nick Bosa than a 1st round pick in 2023.

adrian522 · 05-02-2021 5:07pm

If the Texans don't trade him before the draft then all of a sudden the Jets, Jags, Dolphins are no longer the teams with the best packages to offer.

From Watson's point of view, limited reason to go to a team with a poor roster who will be giving up a boatload of picks to get him. They will be in the same situation as Houston.

From Texans point of view, limited reason to trade him to a team with a good roster as picks are likely to be at the back end of the first round.

Seems like for the moment that the Texans are digging their heels in. This could drag on for a while.

The_Honeybadger · 05-02-2021 6:01pm

Foxtrol wrote: »

That beat writer could be floating an idea of his but he is well known for being very close to the team, so I doubt it is completely without any insight from someone at the team.

The reason why I suspect defensive players are mentioned is that very few teams have enough picks to get Watson straight up. There is a limit of years in the future you can give away picks so without brining players into the discussion you're limiting the market to the very few teams with multiple firsts. I'd say the Texans would be far more interested if they could get their hands on Chase Young or Nick Bosa than a 1st round pick in 2023.

He was saying up to recently that there is no way Watson could or would be traded, changed his tune then. It may be something the team discreetly asked him to float or he may be guessing.

If they are looking for players I’d agree it would have to be young players with multiple years left on their rookie deal like Bosa or Young. Texans can’t really afford to take on veteran contracts, albeit those guys won’t be cheap as far as rookies go.

There is probably a better chance than most realise that the Texans dig their heels in and keep him too, unless they get a ridiculous offer. Fascinating situation in any case. You’d assume if a trade is to happen it’ll be before the draft.

Foxtrol · 05-02-2021 6:07pm

The_Honeybadger wrote: »

He was saying up to recently that there is no way Watson could or would be traded, changed his tune then. It may be something the team discreetly asked him to float or he may be guessing.

If they are looking for players I’d agree it would have to be young players with multiple years left on their rookie deal like Bosa or Young. Texans can’t really afford to take on veteran contracts, albeit those guys won’t be cheap as far as rookies go.

There is probably a better chance than most realise that the Texans dig their heels in and keep him too, unless they get a ridiculous offer. Fascinating situation in any case. You’d assume if a trade is to happen it’ll be before the draft.

Watson is in a pretty good position as any player in recent history to sit out. He received a huge payday from signing his contract and plays a position where there is a long shelf life.

Signing that contract with the Texans has probably given him way more leverage than he would have otherwise - if it was a long term decision to force a move it was incredibly smart.

letowski · 05-02-2021 6:24pm

Wentz to the Colts is starting to gather some legs per Mike Garafolo.

Itssoeasy · 05-02-2021 6:47pm

letowski wrote: »

Went to the Colts is starting to gather some legs per Mike Garafolo.

Well the frank reich connection with wentz and the success they had will always be a strong pull.

letowski · 05-02-2021 6:54pm

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Well the frank reich connection with wentz and the success they had will always be a strong pull.

Yeah it would appear so. Chris Ballard is actually doing a radio interview in about an hour, be interesting to hear him and see if there are any hints.

Foxtrol · 05-02-2021 6:59pm

letowski wrote: »

Went to the Colts is starting to gather some legs per Mike Garafolo.

I don't see how they possibly do this with the cap situation unless something crazy like Wentz giving back his signing bonus.

On a pre-june 1 trade it is $33m in dead cap, $11m higher than the previous record.

That would be terrible for any team in a normal year, but next year with the reduced cap the Eagles are already 53m over. Add in that Wentz dead cap and they'd be $86m over the cap - pushing towards 50% over.

They could push the trade to post-june 1 but that leaves so many moving pieces and teams potentially backing out and the other screwed.

adrian522 · 05-02-2021 7:07pm

Foxtrol wrote: »

I don't see how they possibly do this with the cap situation unless something crazy like Wentz giving back his signing bonus.

On a pre-june 1 trade it is $33m in dead cap, $11m higher than the previous record.

That would be terrible for any team in a normal year, but next year with the reduced cap the Eagles are already 53m over. Add in that Wentz dead cap and they'd be $86m over the cap - pushing towards 50% over.

They could push the trade to post-june 1 but that leaves so many moving pieces and teams potentially backing out and the other screwed.

It wouldn't put them 86m over. It would be dead money of 33m but that is already factored into the 53m that they are over. It's not an additional 33m. They are paying it either way but if they trade him they actually reduce their overall cap hit by 800k.

Either way it's a huge contract they are on the hook for.

letowski · 05-02-2021 7:43pm

The compensation in the trade will be interesting too. I don’t necessarily think the Colts send picks to Philly. It might be a Osweiler type deal for the Colts to take on all that risk and money.

I get the feeling it won’t happen though. I’d love to eavesdrop a conversation between Peterson and Reich over Carson Wentz, which I’m sure has already happened.

nerd69 · 05-02-2021 8:02pm

letowski wrote: »

The compensation in the trade will be interesting too. I don’t necessarily think the Colts send picks to Philly. It might be a Osweiler type deal for the Colts to take on all that risk and money.

I get the feeling it won’t happen though. I’d love to eavesdrop a conversation between Peterson and Reich over Carson Wentz, which I’m sure has already happened.

Not a hope I'd say even with that kind of deal they end up with huge dead cap next season they can move him cheap. Of they are to move him this year it would only be for a huge deal which they won't get

Foxtrol · 05-02-2021 8:14pm

adrian522 wrote: »

It wouldn't put them 86m over. It would be dead money of 33m but that is already factored into the 53m that they are over. It's not an additional 33m. They are paying it either way but if they trade him they actually reduce their overall cap hit by 800k.

Either way it's a huge contract they are on the hook for.

You're right.

The dead cap isn't factored in until the player is cut or traded, so it is not included in the $53m overage, however that cap number does include his expected 2021 cap hit which would be gone post trade - the latter part I missed.

Trading him now would save them 800k but currently after the 3rd day of the league year (March 20th ish) his $10m bonus is due so a trade would cost them $9.2m alongside not having the player.

adrian522 · 06-02-2021 11:25am

Drew Brees is coming back for another year on what seems like a veteran minimum type contract, freeing up $24m in cap space.

Mr. Guappa · 06-02-2021 11:49am

adrian522 wrote: »

Drew Brees is coming back for another year on what seems like a veteran minimum type contract, freeing up $24m in cap space.

I think it's just a resturcture to help the Saints cap space issues, but he will still retire.

adrian522 · 06-02-2021 11:51am

OK, that seems fairly dodgy if that's the case.

BonnieSituation · 06-02-2021 12:59pm

Team friendly contracts are bad now? Surely not?

---

What will he do, restructure and then go on IR for the year?

The_Honeybadger · 06-02-2021 1:23pm

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Team friendly contracts are bad now? Surely not?

---

What will he do, restructure and then go on IR for the year?

He will retire after June 1st to spread the dead cap over two years instead of one. He had two void years at the end of his deal that allows them to do this.

Foxtrol · 06-02-2021 8:06pm

adrian522 wrote: »

OK, that seems fairly dodgy if that's the case.

Not as dodgy as these 'void' years that are all the rage these days.

Offseason 2021 - Trades, Free Agency, QB Carousel

Comments