Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion 2013/14

whitebriar · 21-07-2013 12:58pm

maquiladora wrote: »

I don't think they'll become electric here though. Conditions don't look favorable today apart from around southwest and west coasts.

Agreed,there might be some residual stuff left in those,but warm and all as the sea has become,its simply isn't warm enough to sustain the sferics in those en route,we'll see.
Big question is what circulation any monster storms Monday into Tuesday over GB get tracked into and whether those drift this way.
We'll see.
Most of the energy for home grown storms looks like being washed out.
Undoubtedly there'll be some,but I think storm lovers will be looking across the Irish sea again in envy as there's going to be plentiful energy there.

pad199207 · 21-07-2013 1:18pm

New Storms have fired North of Cornwall

V_Moth · 21-07-2013 1:34pm

pad199207 wrote: »

New Storms have fired North of Cornwall

The centre of this one has just gone white :eek: on raintoday (>50mm rain) - heading for west Waterford. Sat 24 shows a few strikes as well.

maquiladora · 21-07-2013 1:36pm

pad199207 wrote: »

New Storms have fired North of Cornwall

Yeah it's producing some lightning now despite conditions not looking good around there on the models. Will be interesting to see if it makes it to the south coast or fizzles out.

Iancar29 · 21-07-2013 2:33pm

Just home from work , was amazing to see the storm off the SW going strong for so long !
Imagine that being over land!? , would of caused flash flooding no doubt!

Will be interesting watching the are to the SE . I think later on tonight as the warm plume enters the english channel , anything that gets going has the chance to stay active as midlevel instability increases over night.

Gonna need a power nap to be in RadarWatch Mode tonight! lol

maquiladora · 21-07-2013 2:33pm

Still producing some lightning. Looks multicellular now on radar.

Iancar29 · 21-07-2013 2:40pm

maquiladora wrote: »

Still producing some lightning. Looks multicellular now on radar.

Yep , was just gonna say that .

Interesting day ahead.

Iancar29 · 21-07-2013 2:52pm

An radar estimate of Over 100mm fell in that cell to the SW in the last 12hours !

maquiladora · 21-07-2013 2:57pm

The cell off the south coast looks to be expanding a fair bit on IR in the last 30 minutes.

YRNO precip chart has it reaching the southeast coast around 6pm.

Still producing lightning, not a lot though.

sunbabe08 · 21-07-2013 3:03pm

Oh please tell me that's heading for cork city

maquiladora · 21-07-2013 3:09pm

sunbabe08 wrote: »

Oh please tell me that's heading for cork city

Iancar29 · 21-07-2013 3:10pm

maquiladora wrote: »

The cell off the south coast looks to be expanding a fair bit on IR in the last 30 minutes.

YRNO precip chart has it reaching the southeast coast around 6pm.

Still producing lightning, not a lot though.

Yep , lovely top on it now !

Oh to have airplane view of that now !

Iancar29 · 21-07-2013 3:32pm

WOW :eek:

maquiladora · 21-07-2013 3:45pm

Some of the smaller cells around it are firing up now.

Iancar29 · 21-07-2013 3:46pm

Waterford / Wexford... THunderstorm Watch : 4pm - 9pm .... enjoy

Deank · 21-07-2013 3:49pm

Looks like the S/E are going to see some action soon.

image.ashx?type=lightning-12&time=

highdef · 21-07-2013 3:50pm

Iancar29 wrote: »

Waterford / Wexford... THunderstorm Watch : 4pm - 9pm .... enjoy

And maybe some other eastern counties later??? With the land being so warm, could these aid further development? Would love a light show as we head into darkness

DOCARCH · 21-07-2013 3:53pm

Looking at Sat24, that cell seems to be taking a more northerly track. Should hit Wexford alright...then up the N11 straight to south Dublin!

maquiladora · 21-07-2013 3:54pm

Iancar29 wrote: »

Waterford / Wexford... THunderstorm Watch : 4pm - 9pm .... enjoy

It's impressive considering very little CAPE and +5 LI. Encouraging for the days ahead for sure.

I just hope it doesn't head too far northeast and misses the southeast completely.

Still growing on IR...although it hasn't produced any lightning in the past 20 minutes.

Larbre34 · 21-07-2013 3:55pm

How completely random it looks!

vickers209 · 21-07-2013 4:02pm

Iancar29 wrote: »

Waterford / Wexford... THunderstorm Watch : 4pm - 9pm .... enjoy

Wicklow maybe?? Or will it die as it heads overland

DOCARCH · 21-07-2013 4:04pm

vickers209 wrote: »

Wicklow maybe?? Or will it die as it heads overland

I wouldn't hold out too much hope. I have seen those sort of storms die a death once they hit land.

rc28 · 21-07-2013 4:16pm

That bunch off the southeast have intensified on latest radar echo but no guarantees of any thunder by the time it reaches the coast.

maquiladora · 21-07-2013 4:16pm

DOCARCH wrote: »

I wouldn't hold out too much hope. I have seen those sort of storms die a death once they hit land.

For what it's worth, 0Z yrno precip chart has nailed it so far and that shows the precip continuing up the country this evening and overnight. Whether it would still be producing lightning then though, I dunno...

At least we have something to watch now! :pac:

DOCARCH · 21-07-2013 4:19pm

maquiladora wrote: »

At least we have something to watch now! :pac:

Indeed...and see if the radar still works! :P

mickger844posts · 21-07-2013 4:22pm

Looking at its movement on Sat it looks like it may just clip East Waterford with Wexford definitely in its path.

Iancar29 · 21-07-2013 4:32pm

11pm this evening...

RobertKK · 21-07-2013 4:38pm

I want my thunderstorm...looks good for Kilkenny with rain at least. I know in the past the thunder element of it sometimes dies in these scenarios but good for those at the coast at least.
Have to wait and see.

rc28 · 21-07-2013 4:39pm

Still producing the odd bolt of lightning. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=lightning;sess=

maquiladora · 21-07-2013 4:44pm

Strike rate is down to 1 per 10 minutes.

dsmythy · 21-07-2013 4:47pm

Us Dubs have a shield for these northerly moving chaps.

whitebriar · 21-07-2013 4:51pm

vickers209 wrote: »

Wicklow maybe?? Or will it die as it heads overland

Probably,Looks like it,if it holds it together.
Probably no sferics by then just rain though.

pad199207 · 21-07-2013 5:11pm

A good clear patch over The SE atm and i would imagine the temps would be much warmer then earlier, so maybe that could give it a boost!

up to 25c here now with good sunshine

maquiladora · 21-07-2013 5:13pm

3 strikes in the past 20 minutes, 0 in the last 10 minutes...

If only conditions were a bit better. :rolleyes:

sunbabe08 · 21-07-2013 5:13pm

I need sum kind of pay off for this heat. A good oul fashioned thunder storm would do me

rc28 · 21-07-2013 5:22pm

First of the showers about the make landfall in Wexford.

atsbury · 21-07-2013 5:27pm

rc28 wrote: »

First of the showers about the make landfall in Wexford.

Beginning to cloud over here in Wexford now.

maquiladora · 21-07-2013 5:30pm

No lightning in the past 20 minutes.

maquiladora · 21-07-2013 6:00pm

It's fizzling out but producing some lightning again as it nears the coast.

whitebriar · 21-07-2013 6:37pm

Sunny in Arklow,but looking on the south horizon,cloud tops can be seen.
This is the usual direction we get our thunder imports.
I'll update in about 2hrs.

whitebriar · 21-07-2013 7:24pm

just to update,I can see the first shower,in the distance now.
I've emailed a pic of one of the cloud top edges to taken around 7pm,the baby is much closer now though.
If they see it in the next while I've asked them to edit it into this post.

pad199207 · 21-07-2013 7:29pm

Cell has practically lost all convective characteristics now, as usual in this country!

whitebriar · 21-07-2013 7:35pm

pad199207 wrote: »

Cell has practically lost all convective characteristics now, as usual in this country!

not surprised looking at it from here,I can only see the first little one,but we'll see if it gets here

maquiladora · 21-07-2013 7:39pm

pad199207 wrote: »

Cell has practically lost all convective characteristics now, as usual in this country!

In fairness though conditions really weren't favorable there at all today, I'm surprised it even did as well as it did. Things look like improving from tomorrow onwards, not looking as good they were a few days ago and not as good as the UK will get - but we'll take what we can get!

pad199207 · 21-07-2013 7:44pm

Latest UK Met Office Aviation charts gives us Showers and CB clouds tonight over Ireland. Cant post the pic here

pad199207 · 21-07-2013 8:16pm

Noticing some new convection getting going off Cork heading NE, at this stage now its really knit picking!

sunbabe08 · 21-07-2013 8:23pm

ugh, all those lightening strikes off the coast

:(:(

Harps · 21-07-2013 9:04pm

The Norwegian model has those showers intensifying again later this evening and tonight, doesn't look like anything too intense but there might be something to play for yet

Bejubby · 21-07-2013 9:51pm

Just looking at the radar from met.ie and it shows some clouds moving in over sw wexford where I am ,and looking out the window facing south the sky is a real dark black grey colour.
Havent seen any lightening but it looks like it should produce some sparks.
Fingers crossed!

RobertKK · 21-07-2013 10:02pm

What is the name of that cloud?
Hope the pic isn't too big...it was taken when I had hope for some rain/lightning.

Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion 2013/14

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