Property Market 2020

eagle eye · 08-05-2020 4:33pm

You know I just thought about what the future holds for all of us and we can expect hefty austerity measures and that might include taxes on savings. I'd be watching out for something like that if I was in the market to buy.

TheSheriff · 08-05-2020 4:37pm

I think it is really wishful thinking to assume that this lockdown will suddenly create a new wave of buyers, thereby keeping things afloat. People who were planning on buying this year have likely been saving for such already; it may accelerate a minority having their deposit together, but I know we were saving well before we even started looking at properties.

On another, more realistic note, I have already stated in this thread we are sale agreed at >10% under asking, a reduction of nearly 50k under the asking price.

I was speaking with a good friend today and they have negotiated 40k under asking on a property in D6. They had previously pulled out of the sale at the start of this, and the vendor came back to them last week and told them make an offer.

This "positive spin" EAs are trying to put on this is laughable; who in their right mind is going to buy from a virtual viewing? I actually think if I could stay at home on a sat and just do virtual viewings all the better, I can whittle down the houses I actually want to see in person.... I would see it causing less footfall for properties during any subsequent open viewings (if these go ahead again), less stress of rocking up to somewhere and seeing 50 other young couples there.

SozBbz · 08-05-2020 4:38pm

eagle eye wrote: »

You know I just thought about what the future holds for all of us and we can expect hefty austerity measures and that might include taxes on savings. I'd be watching out for something like that if I was in the market to buy.

What are you basing this on? Our govt and others internationally have said austerity is not the answer.

eagle eye · 08-05-2020 4:46pm

SozBbz wrote:

What are you basing this on? Our govt and others internationally have said austerity is not the answer.

Don't mind them. We are in lockdown. As soon as everybody is back at work we'll hear about austerity measures.

Hulk Hands · 08-05-2020 4:48pm

eagle eye wrote: »

You know I just thought about what the future holds for all of us and we can expect hefty austerity measures and that might include taxes on savings. I'd be watching out for something like that if I was in the market to buy.

There's no way that will happen. Saving has always been encouraged by an Irish Government. No way is it controllable in this day and age either. Did a quick tot in my head and my savings are spread across 12 different places such as banks, e wallets, revolut, betfair, share options and I can think of numerous other places I could easily hide it, some as simple as transferring to a family member whos under the threshold

Chris_5339762 · 08-05-2020 4:50pm

Good idea, only you'll get nailed for gift tax!!

SozBbz · 08-05-2020 4:50pm

eagle eye wrote: »

Don't mind them. We are in lockdown. As soon as everybody is back at work we'll hear about austerity measures.

Grand so, I'll just take your word for it. :rolleyes:

eagle eye · 08-05-2020 5:04pm

Hulk Hands wrote:

There's no way that will happen. Saving has always been encouraged by an Irish Government. No way is it controllable in this day and age either. Did a quick tot in my head and my savings are spread across 12 different places such as banks, e wallets, revolut, betfair, share options and I can think of numerous other places I could easily hide it, some as simple as transferring to a family member whos under the threshold

If you are willing to break the law that's your business. My post was thinking about ordinary, honest citizens.

eagle eye · 08-05-2020 5:05pm

SozBbz wrote:

Grand so, I'll just take your word for it.

Well take whoever's word you want but don't come back crying when you realise that politicians never tell you the truth unless it hurts or gets them votes.

Claw Hammer · 08-05-2020 5:11pm

There is only an interim government at the moment. Another election within months is a distinct possibility. No politician is going to say anything which might be used against them held a few moths later. No new taxes, no welfare cuts, grants for all business and more spending on health and housing is all you will hear until a government is formed, whether that is before or after the next election.

Hulk Hands · 08-05-2020 5:15pm

eagle eye wrote: »

If you are willing to break the law that's your business. My post was thinking about ordinary, honest citizens.

I'm sure there'll be hundreds of legal ways around it by the hypothetical day this fantasy tax on savings comes in. Surely if austerity gets so bad that we have to tax good savers then property prices will hit the floor in any case? A wealth tax is actually a plausible scenario in austerity, which in Ireland is another word for an increased property/land tax

handlemaster · 08-05-2020 5:28pm

Unemployment rate jumps to 28pc as more than half of young workers lose jobs : Indo head line, that says it all. How will property not drop like a stone after businesses are allowed to open back up. The global economy will be in a recession for the next year at least. I dont think Banks will shoulder Mortgage holders like they were asked to do before.

GreeBo · 08-05-2020 5:31pm

Claw Hammer wrote: »

That is not corect. Some people who had a lot of money before covid 19 may have lost a lot or all of it. Take for example, people in the hospitality industry with high rental costs. They may be personally liable for the rent and have no income to pay it and the business might fail, meanig they will have no way to make back the money they lost.
Some people who had little money before covid may be involved in one of the industries which is busier as a result of covid and can now earn more and also save more.

For the many whose income has remained constant they are almost invariably spending less.

What I think is that people of house buying age are more exposed to the covid downturn that generation x and y.

I was speaking in generalities, of course there will be some individual cases that go the other way, but I wouldnt consider someone to "have money" if a couple of months of covid-19 wipes them out.

GreeBo · 08-05-2020 5:33pm

handlemaster wrote: »

Unemployment rate jumps to 28pc as more than half of young workers lose jobs : Indo head line, that says it all. How will property not drop like a stone after businesses are allowed to open back up. The global economy will be in a recession for the next year at least. I dont think Banks will shoulder Mortgage holders like they were asked to do before.

How many of them will remain long term unemployed and how many will be back to work once restrictions are lifted?

Blueshoe · 08-05-2020 6:45pm

BillyBiggs wrote: »

Just took a look at rental properties on Daft in both Cork and Dublin. Sweet Jesus, reality hasn’t hit the rental market at all. Who do they think is going to rent these places for such extortionate rents? Do letting agents not watch the news, or read newspapers?

If one begins to drop prices it sets off a domino effect.
They won't budge.

Is capital dock still mostly empty? 10k a month for the penthouse. 5 and 6 k a month for the commoner apartments

amyed198 · 08-05-2020 6:47pm

Blueshoe wrote: »

If one begins to drop prices it sets off a domino effect.
They won't budge

Was just about to say, we are currently being ripped off in rent and looked around in case we are still renting next year. Still absolute rip offs comprise the rental market, i wonder when this crashes. Don't want to wish bad luck on anyone but it's long over due that rentals drop.

Bass Reeves · 08-05-2020 7:18pm

eagle eye wrote: »

You know I just thought about what the future holds for all of us and we can expect hefty austerity measures and that might include taxes on savings. I'd be watching out for something like that if I was in the market to buy.

Of all things there will never be s tax on savings. You may have negative interest rates but if there was a tax on savings voters would never forget.

The logistics are impossible as well. Is it the bank deducts it like Dirt tax or is it self declaration. If a person has a business is money in the account deemed savings. What about older people or people saving to put kids through college.

First off there would have to be a base exemption like any other tax. People with substantial savings if it was a bank deducted tax would move it to France or Germany. If it was self declaration are you guaranteed to collect it.

I think property tax is set at 0.18%. If savings tax was similar after exemptions and money leaving the country you might collect 30-50million. Not worth the effort and more especially the flack

James 007 · 08-05-2020 7:18pm

This?

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-sale/clondalkin/19-mill-court-avenue-clondalkin-clondalkin-dublin-2274641/

or this?

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-sale/clondalkin/10-castlegrange-lawn-clondalkin-clondalkin-dublin-2415539/

Who really has priced it correctly?:rolleyes:

GreeBo · 08-05-2020 7:33pm

James 007 wrote: »

This?

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-sale/clondalkin/19-mill-court-avenue-clondalkin-clondalkin-dublin-2274641/

or this?

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-sale/clondalkin/10-castlegrange-lawn-clondalkin-clondalkin-dublin-2415539/

Who really has priced it correctly?:rolleyes:

If the (larger) more expensive one gets their asking price, will you still think they priced it incorrectly?

handlemaster · 08-05-2020 7:34pm

GreeBo wrote: »

How many of them will remain long term unemployed and how many will be back to work once restrictions are lifted?

No one knows that. But it has been by many not all jobs will return.

Hubertj · 08-05-2020 7:36pm

James 007 wrote: »

This?

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-sale/clondalkin/19-mill-court-avenue-clondalkin-clondalkin-dublin-2274641/

or this?

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-sale/clondalkin/10-castlegrange-lawn-clondalkin-clondalkin-dublin-2415539/

Who really has priced it correctly?:rolleyes:

Looks like a big price difference. Do you know the area? Is 1 located in a much better estate or something?

eagle eye · 08-05-2020 7:36pm

Hulk Hands wrote:

I'm sure there'll be hundreds of legal ways around it by the hypothetical day this fantasy tax on savings comes in. Surely if austerity gets so bad that we have to tax good savers then property prices will hit the floor in any case? A wealth tax is actually a plausible scenario in austerity, which in Ireland is another word for an increased property/land tax

I never said it would happen, just that everything should be closely monitored.
All those things guy mention are on the table right now.

James 007 · 08-05-2020 8:04pm

Hubertj wrote: »

Looks like a big price difference. Do you know the area? Is 1 located in a much better estate or something?

https://www.google.com/maps/dir/19+Mill+Ct+Ave,+Bawnoges,+Dublin+22,+D22+P2X9/10+Castlegrange+Lawn,+Deansrath,+Dublin+22,+D22+FT93/@53.321521,-6.4242029,16z/data=!3m1!4b1!4m13!4m12!1m5!1m1!1s0x4867736e755f133b:0x2fd0fa357480cdca!2m2!1d-6.4155948!2d53.320971!1m5!1m1!1s0x486773738e6e90bb:0x98ed43a8246b0f52!2m2!1d-6.4240563!2d53.3222695

I know of the area. My sister has a house in the Castlegrange Estate & was looking to sell in March for €275-300K mark, but this was pre-covid price. Hers is an end house with a garden double the size of the one for sale at €229K. The one at €320K is overly priced, I doubt the location is much better considering both are within a 9min walk of each other.:pac:, unless someone tells me otherwise

Marius34 · 08-05-2020 9:45pm

James 007 wrote: »

This?

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-sale/clondalkin/19-mill-court-avenue-clondalkin-clondalkin-dublin-2274641/

or this?

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-sale/clondalkin/10-castlegrange-lawn-clondalkin-clondalkin-dublin-2415539/

Who really has priced it correctly?:rolleyes:

Looked at the PPR data.
10 Castlegrange Lawn, is well priced at 230K, matches previous neighboring house recent year sales.
19-mill-court-avenue, makes no sense to me. Neighboring houses sells around 240K.

cnocbui · 08-05-2020 10:13pm

One is 92 sq m while the other is an even tinier 79. I see no reason for them to be priced the same.

Umaro · 08-05-2020 10:16pm

GreeBo wrote: »

If the (larger) more expensive one gets their asking price, will you still think they priced it incorrectly?

Perhaps one seller has priced theirs for the 2020 market, and the other seller for the 2023 market. For some people 3 years is no time at all.

Villa05 · 08-05-2020 10:40pm

Pivot Eoin wrote:

Myself and my GF have been saving over â‚¬4500 per month, paying â‚¬600 Rent also. Our take home is about â‚¬6k all said and done, slightly above median but nothing crazy.

Median income in the private sector is 32K and 47k in the public sector. Take home pay of 6k a month is well over median

GreeBo wrote:

Add in people not paying a couple of grand a month in creche fees and it really adds up.

I'd imagine that not too many people with this credhe bill would be applying for a mortgage, house extension maybe

eagle eye wrote:

You know I just thought about what the future holds for all of us and we can expect hefty austerity measures and that might include taxes on savings. I'd be watching out for something like that if I was in the market to buy.

Is that constitutional, money in savings is money that has gone through the taxation system already, plenty of scope to increase property taxes

Assetbacked · 08-05-2020 10:58pm

Blueshoe wrote: »

If one begins to drop prices it sets off a domino effect.
They won't budge.

Is capital dock still mostly empty? 10k a month for the penthouse. 5 and 6 k a month for the commoner apartments

I've always felt the price of these high spec new BTL are priced at such crazy levels in order for supply to be restrained. It is a way to starve the market of supply by making them entirely unaffordable. Even the mythical executives of the big tech and finance companies wouldn't be put up in them and in Dublin we really do not attract the billionaire class like London, NY etc.

lomb · 08-05-2020 11:07pm

Hubertj wrote: »

Looks like a big price difference. Do you know the area? Is 1 located in a much better estate or something?

Sure the dearer one is much better located. The other is a bit of a scumbag area and is no where near schools. Id still go for the cheaper one ,always someone who can afford and better rental potential anyway as its near Pfizer
The dearer one isn't really worth that, probably around 280 pre corona

Assetbacked · 08-05-2020 11:13pm

eagle eye wrote: »

You know I just thought about what the future holds for all of us and we can expect hefty austerity measures and that might include taxes on savings. I'd be watching out for something like that if I was in the market to buy.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/bailouts-will-not-mean-austerity-euro-zone-countries-told-1.4248441?mode=amp

Property Market 2020

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