Property Market 2020

awec

Villa05 wrote: »

Median income in the private sector is 32K and 47k in the public sector. Take home pay of 6k a month is well over median



I'd imagine that not too many people with this credhe bill would be applying for a mortgage, house extension maybe




Is that constitutional, money in savings is money that has gone through the taxation system already, plenty of scope to increase property taxes

Anyone in the greater Dublin area who has a child in a creche?

I see sheep

Living in Dublin seems like a lot of stress from this thread, glad that I do not.

James 007

cnocbui wrote: »

One is 92 sq m while the other is an even tinier 79. I see no reason for them to be priced the same.

Yes but a €100K difference approx.:rolleyes:surely not

James 007

lomb wrote: »

Sure the dearer one is much better located. The other is a bit of a scumbag area and is no where near schools. Id still go for the cheaper one ,always someone who can afford and better rental potential anyway as its near Pfizer
The dearer one isn't really worth that, probably around 280 pre corona

Please skip a go, do not collect €200 & go back to post #6354;)

Even €280K is generous I would feel, interested to see if it will ever drop

GreeBo

Villa05 wrote: »

Median income in the private sector is 32K and 47k in the public sector. Take home pay of 6k a month is well over median



I'd imagine that not too many people with this credhe bill would be applying for a mortgage, house extension maybe




Is that constitutional, money in savings is money that has gone through the taxation system already, plenty of scope to increase property taxes

Erm people who rent also have children....of course they pay creche fees!

GreeBo

handlemaster wrote: »

No one knows that. But it has been by many not all jobs will return.

I'm not expecting all jobs to return, but I would expect most of them to.

amyed198

I see sheep wrote: »

Living in Dublin seems like a lot of stress from this thread, glad that I do not.

It's a nightmare financially, we are not from here but need to live here due to work/hobbies etc.

Paying nearly 2 grand in rent to live in a sh!thole. That's why we need to buy soon, does anyone see prices dropping in Dublin by 10-20% soon or will it take years?

Ozark707

amyed198 wrote: »

That's why we need to buy soon, does anyone see prices dropping in Dublin by 10-20% soon or will it take years?

You will have to go back through this thread to see a range of views (from there being relatively little or temporary impact to there being huge drops...). There have been people reporting here of getting a reduction on previously agreed prices of anything up to 10%, so if that is true then it shows that if there are eager sellers then you can secure a sizeable reduction.

Once restrictions around viewings are lifted maybe there will be more clarity as people will likely be more inclined to bid after viewing something in person and not virtually.

What appears definitely to be happening is that credit is tightening so that will high likely lead to price drops of some nature.

It is probably a good idea to identify properties that could come into your price range if they dropped by X% and approaching EA to see how amenable the seller might be to such a bid.

Ozark707

amyed198 wrote: »

Paying nearly 2 grand in rent to live in a sh!thole

The most recent daft reports show (asking) prices for 1,2 apartments are back at levels of two years ago. I am guessing if you are paying ~2k a month you may be in this category. If so it might be a good idea to take a look at what is out there and remember these are just asking prices now so you can probably secure a reduction on that given supply is at multi year highs.

https://bl.ocks.org/pinsterdev/raw/234b4a5310a14a32e080/

Empty_Space

As soon as the country gets back to normal, people will begin to understand what a mess the world economy is in.
The irrelevant, greatly overly inflated Irish property market will be one of the first to see massive falls.

The "prime" locations with stupid prices will be worst effected and will further drive down crash.
Lack of demand for Airbnb type let's will drive people into rental market more and more.
Anyone with investor properties will be jumping ship as rents normalize and prices drop.
Prices will plummet faster than any normal investor can get out.

cnocbui

I see sheep wrote: »

Living in Dublin seems like a lot of stress from this thread, glad that I do not.

Must be the cramped living conditions. Those two 'houses' that were just being compared I would say are closer to being apartments. My house has more room than the two of them put together.

I really hope remote working remains after this, which would at least be a silver lining. Then a lot of people could move out of Dublin, which would take the pressure off the market and those who move could find more affordable accommodation that in many instances would be roomier than they could afford in Dublin.

I'm a cynic, so I doubt that will happen, despite some in the commentariat saying things will change permanently after this. Unless governments use tax carrots or sticks to encourage remote working, I think companies will want to return to centralised pools of workers.

cnocbui

Empty_Space wrote: »

As soon as the country gets back to normal, people will begin to understand what a mess the world economy is in.
The irrelevant, greatly overly inflated Irish property market will be one of the first to see massive falls.

The "prime" locations with stupid prices will be worst effected and will further drive down crash.
Lack of demand for Airbnb type let's will drive people into rental market more and more.
Anyone with investor properties will be jumping ship as rents normalize and prices drop.
Prices will plummet faster than any normal investor can get out.

Where are you comparing Ireland to in order to come to the conclusion that property prices are 'greatly over inflated'?

AirBnb demand will change very rapidly once air travel is normalised again. At least 10% of global GDP is/was dependent on tourism and travel. The incentive to restore that industry is considerable. The Airbnb market reduction is a temporary 12 month phenomenon.

Hubertj

cnocbui wrote: »

Where are you comparing Ireland to in order to come to the conclusion that property prices are 'greatly over inflated'?

AirBnb demand will change very rapidly once air travel is normalised again. At least 10% of global GDP is/was dependent on tourism and travel. The incentive to restore that industry is considerable. The Airbnb market reduction is a temporary 12 month phenomenon.

He’s making it up as he goes along

Dav010

Empty_Space wrote: »

As soon as the country gets back to normal, people will begin to understand what a mess the world economy is in.
The irrelevant, greatly overly inflated Irish property market will be one of the first to see massive falls.

The "prime" locations with stupid prices will be worst effected and will further drive down crash.
Lack of demand for Airbnb type let's will drive people into rental market more and more.
Anyone with investor properties will be jumping ship as rents normalize and prices drop.
Prices will plummet faster than any normal investor can get out.

The property market is very relevant, construction is one of the most important sectors in any economy both in terms of employment and revenue. Price drops now are not a reflection on prices being overinflated, they are a result of a catastrophic economic event. It’s like saying a crashed car was overpriced because it’s value has dropped.

When I read posts about Airbnb properties and their effect on tenancies/property prices, I wonder do people realise that Airbnb’s accounted for around 1% of rental properties in summer 2019? Even if every single one of them went back into rental/sales market (they won’t), it would have virtually no effect on either market.

Mic 1972

amyed198 wrote: »

It's a nightmare financially, we are not from here but need to live here due to work/hobbies etc.

Paying nearly 2 grand in rent to live in a sh!thole. That's why we need to buy soon, does anyone see prices dropping in Dublin by 10-20% soon or will it take years?

I called an agency today for a 1bed apartment, asking price around the 220 mark, allegedly they already have offers for over 230
I'm not too confident that prices will drop in Dublin, but maybe it's too early to say

Villa05

Dav010 wrote:

When I read posts about Airbnb properties and their effect on tenancies/property prices, I wonder do people realise that Airbnb’s accounted for around 1% of rental properties in summer 2019? Even if every single one of them went back into rental/sales market (they won’t), it would have virtually no effect on either market.

What percentage of rental properties are on the market at any one time?

awec wrote:

Anyone in the greater Dublin area who has a child in a creche?

GreeBo wrote:

Erm people who rent also have children....of course they pay creche fees!

My point was that people with 2k a month creche bills would not be prime mortgage candidates, it would be unlikely that they would be driving the property market forward. I'm not sure how you deducted the above from my post

Assuming rent at 1500 a month maybe 2000. A couple would be down 5k gross income before they opened there eyes on the first day of the month

James 007

Mic 1972 wrote: »

I called an agency today for a 1bed apartment, asking price around the 220 mark, allegedly they already have offers for over 230
I'm not too confident that prices will drop in Dublin, but maybe it's too early to say

That's fine, put in your offer of €200k & wait for the phone call in a few weeks time

GreeBo

Villa05 wrote: »

My point was that people with 2k a month creche bills would not be prime mortgage candidates, it would be unlikely that they would be driving the property market forward. I'm not sure how you deducted the above from my post

Assuming rent at 1500 a month maybe 2000. A couple would be down 5k gross income before they opened there eyes on the first day of the month

Yet you still seem to think that this isnt a huge number of people, especially in the Dublin area...
Let me tell you that it is.

Creches are turning away children because they are full, these are all just happy settled people who own their own homes, if it was then we wouldnt have a housing crisis as only single or no kid families would be looking for houses.

PommieBast

Mic 1972 wrote: »

I called an agency today for a 1bed apartment, asking price around the 220 mark, allegedly they already have offers for over 230
I'm not too confident that prices will drop in Dublin, but maybe it's too early to say

In the current climate I would simply call BS on any alleged bid above asking.

handlemaster

Mic 1972 wrote: »

I called an agency today for a 1bed apartment, asking price around the 220 mark, allegedly they already have offers for over 230
I'm not too confident that prices will drop in Dublin, but maybe it's too early to say

Very unlikely.

q85dw7osi4lebg

Still convinced 90% of people in here have never bought or sold property.

ladystardust

Honestly, there is a 4 bed near us that is up for 385. It has a lot of TLC needing, and isn't even in a particularly amazing area. Put in a lowballnoffer and was told the house down the road had sold for the same price in much the same condition only days previous. Another house we are looking at has 4 active bidders with the bid now exceeding asking.

Bass Reeves

Villa05 wrote: »

What percentage of rental properties are on the market at any one time?








My point was that people with 2k a month creche bills would not be prime mortgage candidates, it would be unlikely that they would be driving the property market forward. I'm not sure how you deducted the above from my post

Assuming rent at 1500 a month maybe 2000. A couple would be down 5k gross income before they opened there eyes on the first day of the month

I do not think anybody says the property market will drive on, but the perception that we will see a 20%+ drop in prices is unlikely. The big fundamental issues is that at present house prices developers were starting to build again as they are covering building costs and have a margin. Too much of a drop and they will stop building.

This time there will not be 10,000's of excess houses build or being build. If banks stop lending It will be both to buyers and builders. Most landlords are not over exposed like last time so there will be less forced sellers

overkill602

With already high taxes real estate ownership rights eroding off loading that second house or that lump if you are lucky to have buy shares in ie. morgan stanley irish euro uk markets in the tank for the next decade imho
wealth viewed negatively here wonder if its linked to hard left political direction.
Buying a house or apartment to live in might be still a runner but the neighbours may have got theirs for free and they may look down at you because you work.

tastyt

If there’s a worldwide recession , thousands unemployed and many businesses in the country never to reopen, why do people think house prices in Ireland are bulletproof to price drops ??

Bizarre

pearcider

Bass Reeves wrote: »

I do not think anybody says the property market will drive on, but the perception that we will see a 20%+ drop in prices is unlikely. The big fundamental issues is that at present house prices developers were starting to build again as they are covering building costs and have a margin. Too much of a drop and they will stop building.

This time there will not be 10,000's of excess houses build or being build. If banks stop lending It will be both to buyers and builders. Most landlords are not over exposed like last time so there will be less forced sellers

The wishful thinking in here is absolutely astonishing. I keep thinking back to all the big boys bailing out of the Aviva property fund back in January. The horse of course had bolted way back in September 2019 but the small time investor in here is still trying to say it will all be ok, it’s just covid 19, we will bounce back. Wrong. This is the credit bubble of 2008 revisited, with a vengeance and the debt never went away you know.

eagle eye

tastyt wrote:

If there’s a worldwide recession , thousands unemployed and many businesses in the country never to reopen, why do people think house prices in Ireland are bulletproof to price drops ??

Biggest reason is we have a major shortage.
I don't think they're bulletproof but I don't think there'll be a price crash either.

cnocbui

pearcider wrote: »

The wishful thinking in here is absolutely astonishing. I keep thinking back to all the big boys bailing out of the Aviva property fund back in January. The horse of course had bolted way back in September 2019 but the small time investor in here is still trying to say it will all be ok, it’s just covid 19, we will bounce back. Wrong. This is the credit bubble of 2008 revisited, with a vengeance and the debt never went away you know.

You talking about the wishful thinking of others is epic irony.

cnocbui

tastyt wrote: »

If there’s a worldwide recession , thousands unemployed and many businesses in the country never to reopen, why do people think house prices in Ireland are bulletproof to price drops ??

Bizarre

One minute you have most in society bemoaning a housing shortage with figures showing the annual building rate not even approaching half the estimated requirements and the next minute you have a cohort thinking prices will plummet 40%.

I think there is a good chance there will be a period of price reductions, but I doubt the market will collapse and I am hoping the talk of decade long depression proves to be overly pessimistic.

Ozark707

Dav010 wrote: »

I wonder do people realise that Airbnb’s accounted for around 1% of rental properties in summer 2019? Even if every single one of them went back into rental/sales market (they won’t), it would have virtually no effect on either market.

If that is the case what has caused the very noticeable reduction in rent asking prices since mid March?