FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2019 / 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

The AO was extremely positive for much of January (it has been positive the entire winter). There is the possibility of record breaking AO positivity over the next two weeks, off the scale type stuff, keeping zonality absolutely locked in over the next few weeks. This is pretty much the final nail in the coffin for Winter 2019/2020. Westerlies will be the only game in town for probably the rest of February.

Artane2002 wrote: »

The GFS 18z is showing some sort of a snowstorm on the 11th with a very tight gradient over England. It obviously won't happen but it's something to look at!

theres the snow storm:






looks very cold that day too:


I would agree there is probably about a 0.0000001% chance of this happening, a cold Atlantic flow but no real cold air in place, snow maybe for the highest peaks but widespread disruptive snow across the south from a westerly is about as likely as 30C from a westerly in August! Even if there was cold air in place from an easterly or northerly, Ireland usually has a rough time with anything wintry turning to rain very quickly once the Atlantic is involved.

tonight's GFS if it happened would easily make it to a red level warning for most of Ireland, England and Wales. It's an insane chart and I can't imagine it being anywhere that windy, however a very windy day is certainly possible if it was a direct hit, but I just can't imagine those sort of windspeeds. Very interesting weather watching for the first time this winter, expect alot of updates here over the next few days, we will probably end up with something far more sensible and ordinary.

Meteorite58 wrote: »

If the GFS struck like it is showing I reckon it would be, without sounding too dramatic, a once in a lifetime storm. But low chance at this stage....... on to the next run!

it would be something like this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NnxjZ-aFkjs

With more than a week to go it will more than likely not be as powerful as what is represented tonight and will either side swipe us to the north/south or miss us entirely.

next week has the potential to see the most significant weather event since the Beast From The East, except this will be a very different beast, not so much if anything in the way of a proper snow event but could be quite stormy and very wet coupled with a frigid windchill and maybe a wintry mix.

Tonight's pub run is sensational stuff that is so over the top, the likelyhood of this happening is very slim indeed. We will probably see a much reduced version of this in reality or we may see nothing at all. But lets look at tonight's run and see what they are showing.

Windchill temperatures could be more like something you'd expect from an easterly, this is down to a cold zonal flow and very strong winds. Tonights GFS is showing a windchill between -5C and -9C:



The 10th of February (the day before the storm) looks quite wintry, but the GFS tends to completely overcook these situations by a mile.



Not much snow for us away from high ground on the 11th, but Northern Ireland and especially Scotland could see quite a bit of snow next week:



The 11th starts off chilly, but temperatures quickly rise as the day goes on with any lying snow melting rapidly. Cools down again the following day.





Winds between 80km/h and off the scale levels of up to 170 or 175km/h crossing the country and on into the UK as well. If this really happened it would cause life threatening situations and possible structural damage on a scale none of us have seen in our lifetimes. Don't be alarmed the chances of this happening are practically zero, this is still a whole week away, well off in FI. We will most likely end up with a much reduced version of this or we could end up with just a standard Irish winter day. This will likely be gone in the morning.



No doubt this will change alot and downgrades are certain, especially for those insane windspeeds.