Are we excited yet?

jimmii wrote: »

You know they're just picking a random number to get clicks right? No one can really make predictions for these things very few people even really have half the information they would need to make a decent call. Normally the only time anyone can make a short term prediction is a whale when they're logging in to buy or sell for an amount they know is going to move things.

29k acted as a support area after a big retracment back in January do that's why it gets mentioned now.
It may not act as support again, but it's not random either.

Fooks sake this is brutal, is this going to be a repeat of 2018 I wonder? It just keeps dropping. I'm 90% ETH.

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us, we were all going direct to Heaven, we were all going direct the other way—in short, the period was so far like the present period, that some of its noisiest authorities insisted on its being received, for good or for evil, in the superlative degree of comparison only.

It's bouncing all over the place.

weemcd wrote: »

First time I've dipped out of profit in crypto.

Alerts flying in left, right and centre. Got stopped out on a few coins and bought BTC & ETH as I only held Alts. Hopefully this pays off.

If you survive this and go on to take profit in a recovery you deserve it, as the last few weeks have been an absolute nightmare.

Barely holding on to the profits I have. Although just refreshed and dropped further now but still *just* profitable. I'm ready to buy back in though if this becomes a proper slaughter.

Luckycharms_74 wrote: »

Going into the "are we worried thread" and it's like chicken little the sky is falling.
I just wish I had €50k to invest into all these dips

This correction is good, don't panic.

I've plenty of Tether and I'm not touching these "dips".

Best of luck lads! Hope nobody is panic selling atm.

SummerK wrote: »

Does this mean there could be more dip in crypto space? I read on another portal that bitcoin could see $29k next week which sounds scary to me.

Although I have been buying on dips the last few days, I just don't know when this would stop. Already down €2k in overall portfolio value

Lol wish I could say the same

Haven't bought since Jan/Feb, getting tempting now

Donald Trump wrote: »

Mellor, the hedges are on the obligation to deliver two assets on the forward contract.

None of you example include an obligation or a contract.

The person who currently has one of the assets (Anne) and the person who buys one asset now (Johnny) are partially hedged. they take the risk of price movement on the other.

That’s the risk you take when you but any asset. Buying an asset is not a hedge.

The person who buys two assets now is fully hedged.

No he isn’t. He has bought an asset.
There is nothing hedged.

You are basically saying every purchase over 2satoshi is fully hedged. That’s clearly wrong.

Yes, we are not dealing with a forward contract in the original scenario but on a person who most definitely wants the asset in the future.

They may want it for cheaper. But they are or obligated to buy it. So if the prices doesnt suit, they can change their mind. The facts it’s an independent, not obligated, action means it’s not hedging.

That was my understanding of this "hodl" meme thing. I used the forward contract as a simplification.

Your examples don’t include a contract.

Lets even put it into layman everyday speak. Two people say they are convinced a dip is coming. One sells their assets now to buy back in. The other is not so convinced, so only sells half his assets. The latter is, colloquially speaking, "hedging his bets".

“Hedging your bets” is an expression that comes from gambling/finance. It’s just an expression.
Just because something is described as hedging their bets. Doesn’t mean it’s actually a hedge in a financial (or gambling) sense - which is a phrase that has an distinct meaning.

The person who bought two assets. Hasn’t “hedged his bets” either btw.

HGVRHKYY wrote: »

24h chart is all over the place

They all are tbh

Lads BTC at $32K, so 29k support news appears to be correct.

Mellor wrote: »

None of you example include an obligation or a contract.



That’s the risk you take when you but any asset. Buying an asset is not a hedge.



No he isn’t. He has bought an asset.
There is nothing hedged.

You are basically saying every purchase over 2satoshi is fully hedged. That’s clearly wrong.


They may want it for cheaper. But they are or obligated to buy it. So if the prices doesnt suit, they can change their mind. The facts it’s an independent, not obligated, action means it’s not hedging.



Your examples don’t include a contract.


“Hedging your bets” is an expression that comes from gambling/finance. It’s just an expression.
Just because something is described as hedging their bets. Doesn’t mean it’s actually a hedge in a financial (or gambling) sense - which is a phrase that has an distinct meaning.

The person who bought two assets. Hasn’t “hedged his bets” either btw.

My example actually did include a contract. Copied below.

Donald Trump wrote: »

I won't go through all the post. I want to explain more clearly what I meant by the hedging comment. I am well aware of what it is. I may not have explained myself clearly.


The below is predicated on the assumption/understanding I had which was that the poster was saying that a dip was coming and to wait to buy in that dip but also to hold onto what they currently had. There are five people in my example. All need two of the underlying asset in one year. Suppose they are short a forward which requires physical settlement. Asset is currently valued at 50 so all have portfolios valued at 100 today.

I think you are getting too hung up on semantics. I am merely making the point that someone being adamant that you should simultaneously "hodl" what you have while also being adamant that there is a dip coming that you should wait for to buy more into is inconsistent.


It is the being adamant bit that I was pointing out was inconsistent. I have no problem with someone saying "you should hold onto what you have, but if price happens to go down so that it is more undervalued, then you should also buy in more at that point".



Hedging is merely entering into negatively correlated positions. A partial hedge is still a hedge.

Wow my portfolio is really taking a beating today. I'm down almost 50% compared to my ATH a week ago. If this had happened this time last year after I had only just started dabbling in crypto I'd probably be ****ting my pants. Now after everything that's gone on over the past year I'm feeling more "Sure look, it'll pick up again at some stage" and not giving it a second thought. If anything I feel very amused by it all.