FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

rooney30 · 10-12-2020 2:35pm

Was checking this thread daily for the last week or so in hope of some cold. After today , maybe time to check back in around New Years

Donegal Storm · 10-12-2020 3:38pm

Is it just me or has model watching gotten extremely boring these past few years? 10 years ago this thread would be jumping and we'd regularly see amazing charts at anything beyond ~150h with massive storms and extreme cold spells. These days you're lucky to even see a hint of anything interesting on the last few frames of a run

Maybe a sign that the models have improved a lot and don't go crazy half as much as they used to...

Gonzo · 10-12-2020 4:05pm

Donegal Storm wrote: »

Is it just me or has model watching gotten extremely boring these past few years? 10 years ago this thread would be jumping and we'd regularly see amazing charts at anything beyond ~150h with massive storms and extreme cold spells. These days you're lucky to even see a hint of anything interesting on the last few frames of a run

Maybe a sign that the models have improved a lot and don't go crazy half as much as they used to...

there could be alot of truth in that, because 10 to 15 years ago we would regularly see extreme eye candy in the charts several times per winter but most of the time they ended up in breaking hearts as the Atlantic just stayed in place most of the time. Maybe it's a good thing we don't see the eye candy quite on the scale of the early 2000's.

Hooter23 · 10-12-2020 7:10pm

Its just because our weather is not as bad as it used to be...just look at the old bbc weather forecasts from the 90s on youtube and you will see how bad weather was back then....

Nabber · 10-12-2020 8:22pm

Hooter23 wrote: »

Its just because our weather is not as bad as it used to be...just look at the old bbc weather forecasts from the 90s on youtube and you will see how bad weather was back then....

The models have improved. The weather in the 90s is not much different to todays weather.
The models in essence rely on computational power to run their many calculation.
There has been a trillion percent increase in available computational over the past 60 years, 1990 is 30 years ago, a long time in technological terms.

Look back in the boards threads, there was 100s of FI charts that looked super or Armageddon type, but nothing came of them. 2009 and 2010 stand out for anything meaningful.

Donegal Storm · 10-12-2020 9:06pm

Nabber wrote: »

The models have improved. The weather in the 90s is not much different to todays weather.
The models in essence rely on computational power to run their many calculation.
There has been a trillion percent increase in available computational over the past 60 years, 1990 is 30 years ago, a long time in technological terms.

Look back in the boards threads, there was 100s of FI charts that looked super or Armageddon type, but nothing came of them. 2009 and 2010 stand out for anything meaningful.

Thats what I'm thinking, I'm assuming there's some sort of machine learning algorithms used as well that encourage runs to deviate back towards the mean if they start "going off on one". Whatever it is it's definitely noticeable in threads like this just how few interesting runs there are compared to past years

Meteorite58 · 10-12-2020 9:53pm

Cant see much of note coming up except what could be some windy weather around next Tues/ Weds just inside the +120 hrs.

Cold projections seems to have lessened for next week

Rain accumulation totals were looking higher, dipped a bit and seem to be making a comeback again out to +240hrs but mostly along Atlantic coastal counties.

Meteorite58 · 10-12-2020 10:06pm

Who knows that LP system might eventually drift slowly into the Nordic countries and drag down some cold NW'lys and then N'lys, maybe the Atlantic will slow down, the Jet looks to go more South, last chart looks a bit quiet to our West ??

I really don't know, only looking for a bit of seasonal cold potential.

Cork2021 · 10-12-2020 10:42pm

Nothing worse then a mild Christmas

lostweekend3 · 10-12-2020 10:48pm

Cork2021 wrote: »

Nothing worse then a mild Christmas

And we’ve got our fair share of them over the last few years. Really hoping the models shift to a colder outlook from tomorrow. We can be confident that there won’t be any snow before Christmas Day anyway.

Gonzo · 10-12-2020 10:49pm

the GFS was starting to look fairly interesting a few days ago for the Christmas period, but over the past 2 to 3 days each run has been downgrading the colder runs ever so slightly with each run and now there isn't much genuine cold left on the table between now and the 26th. The other day we had about 6 runs into the -8 to -10C category and another into -12C. Right now the runs don't go any colder than -5C with the exception of one which goes to -10C.

However we are still 2 weeks in the run up to Christmas and the charts can change alot between now and then so the window is still open for some seasonal Christmas cold. Despite the blocking on offer it doesn't seem to be aligning properly for us to tap into any decent cold, hopefully our luck will change soon and start seeing juicy charts.

TTLF · 11-12-2020 1:45am

even if there isn't any snow up to Christmas, there's always the possibility that high pressure dead centre in the middle of the Arctic is making the models do all sorts of mild/cold scenario's. Guess we'll see what happens in the next week week 1/2's time

bazlers · 11-12-2020 8:06am

Looks like there is potential for alot of stormy weather to arrive.
At least that might be a bit more interesting than this drab few days.

pauldry · 11-12-2020 9:22am

Not really mild (yet) on the charts. Not really cold either. Its kind of normal December weather just 6 to 9c a lot of days. Latest GFS has a cool northwesterly over us midday on Christmas Day and temperatures of 5 to 7c with showers.

SnizzleSky · 11-12-2020 10:38am

Overall looking cool from Christmas to NY eve. Potential for upland white gold and very little in the way of confidence at lower levels. Nothing more than seasonal weather with high single figures looking likely for most of the country. Still, a two week run in could produce a surprise but anyone wishing for snow at low elevations will more than likely be disappointed.

Hooter23 · 11-12-2020 12:20pm

Nabber wrote: »

The models have improved. The weather in the 90s is not much different to todays weather.
The models in essence rely on computational power to run their many calculation.
There has been a trillion percent increase in available computational over the past 60 years, 1990 is 30 years ago, a long time in technological terms.

Look back in the boards threads, there was 100s of FI charts that looked super or Armageddon type, but nothing came of them. 2009 and 2010 stand out for anything meaningful.

I dont know about that but I remember back then we actually got the extreme weather that was forecast...unlike nowadays were its all hype 99% of the time for nothing...all part of the climate change scam sure

pauldry · 11-12-2020 1:16pm

Now GFS looks even milder. Ah shucks. Even the dreaded SWesterlies trying to ruin Christmas. 11c on latest chart for the big day. Maybe even higher. Was fearful that one hour of snow last week was all we would get in December. Looks more and more likely.

nacho libre · 11-12-2020 2:01pm

Yes, unfortunately la Nina is starting to take hold. I hope we won't be relying on an pv split for a significant cold spell. We probably will get colder interludes in the weeks ahead, with snow at times, but that will mainly be a north west affair

Meteorite58 · 11-12-2020 8:42pm

ECM still hanging on to the pattern of a cool start to the days before Christmas as does the GFS, GFS goes on to become very unsettled and mild at times over Christmas but goes on to show the Jet taking a plunge South but that is the far reaches of FI.

ECM towards +240 still showing the Jet taking a more Southerly route , perhaps theoretically taking the modeled Low crossing the Atlantic in the final frames more on a Sothern route below Ireland letting the colder air sink down from the NW /N ???

pauldry · 12-12-2020 12:26am

Yes pub run for GFS best of the day as in there is more cold before Christmas than before.

It's still all in the balance as any cool air from the Northwest that is undercut by a secondary low has the potential to bring a short cold snap or two which is better than nothing.

Christmas Day is very mild still though.

Meteorite58 · 12-12-2020 12:33am

The GFS 18Z looks very disturbed the week leading up to Christmas and quiet cold from the NW / N leading to wintry falls.

A long way out and nothing certain, just what the charts show this evening, in general much cooler on the lead up.

Plenty of twists and turns yet I reckon.

nacho libre · 12-12-2020 1:03pm

Yes, some parts of the country could see the white stuff on the 24th into the 25th if the latest GFS could be banked. It would be a brief cold spell, but i don't think many people will be bothered by that.

Larbre34 · 12-12-2020 1:32pm

They would if it affected travel on an already very limited window to do so.

Mild and dry ftw this Christmas.

nacho libre · 12-12-2020 1:37pm

Larbre34 wrote: »

They would if it affected travel on an already very limited window to do so.

Mild and dry ftw this Christmas.

We are not talking about a beasterly here, a northern toppler if we are lucky.
So I don't think it will be disruptive snow in any case. Cold and snowy for the win this Christmas:)

Meteorite58 · 12-12-2020 9:29pm

ECM getting fairly consistent now with introducing colder air the days before Christmas. GFS there as well. Better chance from the last few runs of some cold seasonal weather, a few white mountain tops, wintry precipitation perhaps, nights for the fire anyway.

JanuarySnowstor · 12-12-2020 9:34pm

All speculation at the moment but the trend is our friend!!

Meteorite58 · 12-12-2020 9:47pm

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

All speculation at the moment but the trend is our friend!!

Indeed, we wouldn't want to run away with ourselves :pac:

nacho libre · 13-12-2020 4:32pm

[IMG][/img] gens-0-0-300.png.c87bc6406aad3da9837021cd79f2612d.png

Bank Please.
Snow for some if this chart was realised. It would be good if tonights ECM showed something similar.

JanuarySnowstor · 13-12-2020 5:54pm

Both GEM and GFS continue to see height rises over Greenland before Christmas.
Forget the detail for now, it's clear we at least have a ticket this year for the Orient express!
Right now I wouldn't bet on a white Christmas nor lay a bet....its just too early

Snowbiee21 · 13-12-2020 6:10pm

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Both GEM and GFS continue to see height rises over Greenland before Christmas.
Forget the detail for now, it's clear we at least have a ticket this year for the Orient express!
Right now I wouldn't bet on a white Christmas nor lay a bet....its just too early

All speculation for now, we could be back to those mild charts by morning. Need more confidence

Gonzo · 13-12-2020 6:16pm

alot of people must be getting excited for the latest GFS run, the wetterzentrale website is not even loading for me and just timing out.

Gonzo · 13-12-2020 6:26pm

wetter zentrale back working again but very slow. The Run has finished and it's not as cold as this morning's run. Christmas day still looks cold but showers more of rain across the north and west and milder air pushing through on the 26th. Mild south-westerlies back by December 27th and a mild few days after that.

lostweekend3 · 13-12-2020 6:34pm

Gonzo wrote: »

wetter zentrale back working again but very slow. The Run has finished and it's not as cold as this morning's run. Christmas day still looks cold but showers more of rain across the north and west and milder air pushing through on the 26th. Mild south-westerlies back by December 27th and a mild few days after that.

Sounds horrible. Next run please.

Gonzo · 13-12-2020 7:38pm

latest GFS runs are beginning to trend cooler again for last week of December. When all 30 runs are looked at there is everything but the kitchen sink included from blow torch south-westerlies to atlantic driven rubbish as well as a few storms and some very cold weather as well as settled high pressure.

Overall we are almost back to where we were earlier in the week with several outliers going very cold. The GFS operational is also cold for Christmas but becomes very mild towards the end of it's run and is a mild outlier right at the end.

ens_image.php?geoid=64981&var=201&run=12&date=2020-12-13&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=1

ens_image.php?geoid=64981&var=201&run=12&date=2020-12-13&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=1

The cold trend is clear to see on the above GFS ensemble run. it does appear we go cold for a few days over the Christmas and then back to milder conditions as we head into January. If we do get cold weather there is a fair chance that it will be dry cold spell rather than anything snowy and any wintryness that may happen will probably be confined to western and northern areas unless we can pull in an unstable easterly of some description.

Still alot of play for over the next 11 days in the run up to the big day.

Meteorite58 · 13-12-2020 9:10pm

Cold one from the ECM . Not a lot of precipitation showing up the few days before Christmas on the 12Z, cold frosty and foggy conditions showing for the moment.

bazlers · 13-12-2020 9:12pm

Yes toys are back in the pram in netweather land...; )

Slashermcguirk · 14-12-2020 10:57am

It’s a real mixed bag on the continent in terms of temps. Moscow consistently between -5 to -10 but looking at Scandinavian capitals temps all about 0 and often up between +3 and +6. The likes of Krakow and Munich all well above 0 by day.

Would like to see the nordics and Central Europe getting a lot colder so there is a Cold pool to feed from.

London around +12 degrees up until now and over coming week. Admittedly London very rarely gets snow but even still it’s super mild there. Even Edinburgh is very mild

pauldry · 14-12-2020 11:29am

The only hope we have is a brief Northerly before Christmas. Might bring a few snowflakes to look at. This seems to appear on some GFS runs but not others. Maybe they are wondering will this weeks mild establish itself or will lows eventually move East allowing High to the West topple down Northerlies or Northwesterlies.

nacho libre · 14-12-2020 4:43pm

A Northern toppler was all we were ever going to get. A decent northern toppler could lead to settled snow, but we could well end up with mild southwesterlies instead. If we can't get any snow, hopefully we can eek out something cold and dry. A frost on Christmas Day would be good.

nacho libre · 14-12-2020 6:39pm

The vortex is under pressure from a few sides here. It could lead to something good down the line. Perhaps Amy Butler maybe right afterall.

Gonzo · 14-12-2020 6:44pm

I think a cold and frosty Christmas period is about the best we can hope for this year and compared to a mild Atlantic setup or blowtorch south-westerlies it's the next best thing to deliver something seasonal this Christmas. I am remaining confident that we will finally get our snow but it may not be till sometime in January or February. Let's hope we're still not waiting by 1st of March still wishing for our first flakes.

lostweekend3 · 14-12-2020 6:56pm

nacho libre wrote: »

The vortex is under pressure from a few sides here. It could lead to something good down the line. Perhaps Amy Butler maybe right afterall.

Who the hell is Amy Butler?!

Gonzo · 14-12-2020 6:57pm

latest GFS run looks cold and dry for Christmas and the run up to New Year's Day. A cold northerly pushes south across the country on Christmas Eve introducing very cold winds.

A chance of very light wintry showers across the northern and north-western coasts, these do not penetrate very far inland. We mostly look dry, however as we move towards New Year's the winds shift more north-easterly and we start to see Snow showers moving north to south down the Irish sea start pushing into eastern coastal areas of Leinster by Wednesday 30th of December.

Remaining bitterly cold from the 24th of December to the end of FI on Wednesday 30th December.

Scubadevils · 14-12-2020 7:01pm

I'd absolutely take that for Christmas - cold and dry is significantly better than mildish and wet... I can't think of anything worse weather-wise than say 12c, dull and damp on Christmas day. Snow is top prize, but this absolutely 2nd prize.

mcburns07 · 14-12-2020 7:09pm

Scubadevils wrote: »

I'd absolutely take that for Christmas - cold and dry is significantly better than mildish and wet... I can't think of anything worse weather-wise than say 12c, dull and damp on Christmas day. Snow is top prize, but this absolutely 2nd prize.

This really. Snow is so rare in December especially down here in Cork that a snowy Christmas is never on mind. Cold and dry is much more achievable and really enjoyable

nacho libre · 14-12-2020 7:22pm

lostweekend3 wrote: »

Who the hell is Amy Butler?!

http://amyhawesbutler.blogspot.com/

Gonzo · 14-12-2020 8:33pm

ECM now very similar to the GFS with a cold and dry Christmas Eve.

Kermit.de.frog · 14-12-2020 8:53pm

It's getting a bit more interesting but some evolution to go yet before getting excited.

Gonzo · 14-12-2020 8:57pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

It's getting a bit more interesting but some evolution to go yet before getting excited.

The main thing is that it does look like this won't be another 13C and damp Christmas Day. A cold and dry Christmas will please most people. Hopefully this will evolve more in our favour towards something colder and snowier towards New Years and into first week of January.

Meteorite58 · 14-12-2020 9:10pm

It may be in the far reaches of FI but that is the coldest chart from the GFS I think I've seen since The Beast. No certainty of course but trending cold for sure now with the ECM churning them out too.

FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST