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Storm Jorge : February 29th
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27-02-2020 12:41pm#1
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It's only really the extreme northwest of Spain that will see anything of any severity on Saturday, and even at that, only up to 100-110 km/h in a small area. Seems a little ott to name it and give orange warnings for a cold front passing through.
More of interest will be in our neck of the woods.
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Gaoth Laidir wrote: »It's only really the extreme northwest of Spain that will see anything of any severity on Saturday, and even at that, only up to 100-110 km/h in a small area. Seems a little ott to name it and give orange warnings for a cold front passing through.
Ye they are going mad over it on boards.es
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Gaoth Laidir wrote: »It's only really the extreme northwest of Spain that will see anything of any severity on Saturday, and even at that, only up to 100-110 km/h in a small area. Seems a little ott to name it and give orange warnings for a cold front passing through.
More of interest will be in our neck of the woods.
I'm not so sure about this being overhyped, all models are agreeing on 110 + gusts for North Clare on Saturday from what I see. ICON has the usual overestimation but the rest of them are pretty consistent.0 -
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GFS going for 70 to 110km/h winds generally, maybe higher off western coasts.
Arpege generally similar but some much stronger gusts off the west coast with 140km/h possible.
Icon is as usual over the top and showing red warning levels of 140 or 150km/h. They have way over estimated the past few storms so I wouldn't take this chart seriously, just like I wouldn't take the euro chart seriously for snow.
will have to wait till tonight and see what the Hirlam brings. Probably will be something more sensible in line with the GFS.0 -
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Absolutely glorious day on the West Coast ( lovely bright sunny Spring day) thanks to MTs early warning post this morning...I made sure to get a nice 2 hr coastal walk done before I heard the Met Eireann warning on the radio.
Looks like a trip to Lesureland in Salthill will have to postponed for a third time on Sat
God I'm sick to death of these storms. Its feels like the whole month of Feb has been one continuous rain and wind fest!0 -
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The serious answer here is that the storm formed off the Iberian coast and therefore they got to name it. Storm Ellen has not hit yet. Last weekend didn’t get a name.
It hasn't formed anywhere near Iberia. It's still way out east of New Foundland, at around 47N 37W (the unmarked low developing to the south of that 1002-hPa low).
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IMO
ECM o6Z and GFS 12Z quite similar in bringing the center of the Storm closer to the W and across the NW / N
Showing 50 kt mean barbs and 70 Kt gust barbs along the coasts from Kerry up to Galway. Winds gusting up around 110 km/h overland.
Possible or fairly probable frontal snow event Saturday morning, very wintry at least for a time. Looks like accumulations inland but details will firm up more tomorrow re this.
Thinking this has increased wind speeds over the last few runs, ECM ,UKMO and GFS quite bunched in track and strength, ARPEGE and ICON have the system a bit further North so keeping the strongest winds to the W.
Thinking that it wouldn't take much more to make this a red warning for Kerry and Clare going by the current ECM and GFS. I think the GFS at close range is quite reliable and that is a fairly severe chart just out. More counties will probably go into the Orange wind warning category .
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Meteorite58 wrote: »IMO
ECM o6Z and GFS 12Z quite similar in bringing the center of the Storm closer to the W and across the NW / N
Showing 50 kt mean barbs and 70 Kt gust barbs along the coasts from Kerry up to Galway. Winds gusting up around 110 km/h overland.
Possible or fairly probable frontal snow event Saturday morning, very wintry at least for a time. Looks like accumulations inland but details will firm up more tomorrow re this.
Thinking this has increased wind speeds over the last few runs, ECM ,UKMO and GFS quite bunched in track and strength, ARPEGE and ICON have the system a bit further North so keeping the strongest winds to the W.
Thinking that it wouldn't take much more to make this a red warning for Kerry and Clare going by the current ECM and GFS. I think the GFS at close range is quite reliable and that is a fairly severe chart just out. More counties will probably go into the Orange wind warning category .
How much precipitation are we likely to get between tomorrow morning and Sunday evening.
Is the Shannon going to get worse with flooding?0 -
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