Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

Sam Russell wrote: »

Selling a no-deal is a pointless pursuit. It is like you have just bought a lemon of a car that needs a huge amount spent when the seller said it was perfect. At some point you have to admit the mistake and get shot of it. There is no fudging the heap outside the door that has broken down for the fifth time in five months, spending most of the time being repaired and has cost more than the purchase price and it still is rubbish.

Brexit is rubbish and no spin will change that fact. The longer it goes on, the worse it will get. Mitigation needs to start now, and admitting the mistake will have to come at some point. That confession that it was all a mistake will have to come from a bigger person than Johnson.

Remember, no customs officers (from the required 5,000) have been hired yet, nor have they started the six months training. The C&E software is not due till July and will be later if such projects keep to form.

The lorry parks have been identified, but no toilet facilities provided. The training for customs clearance clerks has yet to start. Have they agreed the HGV licences yet? Is cabbotage agreed? What about fifth freedom rights for air travel?

A thin goods only FTA that has them stay in the CU might just be enough to stay the worst aspects. No-deal is not an option.

I agree with that, and it's logical, but all the same Johnson has been actively avoiding doing a deal, has refused extensions, and has made noises about no-deal being manageable. He may well let no-deal happen then walk away to let someone else clean up the mess, regardless of the impact on the country as a whole.

listermint wrote:

I do yes. Because it's not. It's very anti UK government and its decisions and actions.

I second that.

I consider myself an Anglophile but on the other hand I despise and criticise the rotten archaic UK political system, conventions and political elites (especially the current incarnation of the Tories).

Lumen wrote: »

It's easy for Irish to be positive about the EU, given the extraordinary and obvious benefits that membership has brought here. But still there is discontent here. Not very widespread, but it's there. Particularly amongst fisherman, as it happens. The same arguments about "the Spanish stealing our fish". The difference here is that those arguments haven't taken root in the national consciousness, and hopefully won't. But they did flare up briefly around the Lisbon treaty.

I'm pleased that I live in a country that has a generally sane and positive relationship with the EU, but we're not immune from stupid. I see ignorance and susceptibility here every day on my Facebook feed, often from people with a tricolour in their profile pic. They're exactly the same type of characters as the Brexit morons, railing against perceived injustices and taking refuge in a kind of toxic nationalism.

If Ireland's economy wasn't being so well supported by multinational tax avoidance I wonder whether those anti EU voices would start coming through more strongly.

You'd need a whole set of things to happen for Irish anti EU sentiment to take off and get to similar levels as the UK. It is unlikely IMO but as you say not impossible.

edit: On the Lisbon Treaty (1st run at it) the usual anti elements & "crazies" were almost given a free run and underestimated and there was a very low turnout. Also I think FF at the time were becoming a bit apathetic towards the EU and Irelands relationship with it. The economic success here had bred some arrogance.

The closest we came recently to having an unfavourable set of circumstances was during the crisis period (post 2008). Apart from the economic problems, for a short time the main political parties and some of the media did attempt to focus public anger on the EU, Germany and later the "Troika" (in a similar way IMO to what went in the UK over a far longer period). As in the UK, it was to try to deflect from their own failures.

At current time, public knowledge of & opinion of the EU in Ireland is a mirror opposite of what it was in the UK up to 2016.
edit: I think this can be shown by examining indicators like the Eurobarometer surveys and comparing the Irish results to those for the UK.
People by and large know what the EU is, what it does, the personal (and national) benefits of Ireland's membership and they support it.

Contrast that with the UK. Even the vocal UK remainers who went protesting later & waving their cute little flags did not (if they knew anything about the EU) actually like or support the EU itself or even UK membership of the EU IMO. I think that is best illustrated by the lacklustre and apathetic Remain referendum campaign.

My personal impression is the pro EU "remainers" came into existence mainly as a reaction post-referendum to the extreme & damaging way the Tories pursued the Brexit project.

fly_agaric wrote: »

You'd need a whole set of things to happen for Irish anti EU sentiment to take off and get to similar levels as the UK. It is unlikely IMO but as you say not impossible.

The closest we came recently to having an unfavourable set of circumstances was during the crisis period (post 2008). Apart from the economic problems, for a short time the main political parties and some of the media did attempt to focus public anger on the EU, Germany and later the "Troika" (in a similar way IMO to what went in the UK over a far longer period). As in the UK, it was to try to deflect from their own failures.

At current time, public knowledge of & opinion of the EU in Ireland is a mirror opposite of what it was in the UK up to 2016.
edit: I think this can be shown by examining indicators like the Eurobarometer surveys and comparing the Irish results to those for the UK.
People by and large know what the EU is, what it does, the personal (and national) benefits of Ireland's membership and they support it.

Contrast that with the UK. Even the vocal UK remainers who went protesting later & waving their cute little flags did not (if they knew anything about the EU) actually like or support the EU itself or even UK membership of the EU IMO. I think that is best illustrated by the lacklustre and apathetic Remain referendum campaign.

My personal impression is the pro EU "remainers" came into existence mainly as a reaction post-referendum to the extreme & damaging way the Tories pursued the Brexit project.

Your comments about pro-Remain supporters are unjust. The reality is that most of them were supportive of U.K. membership of the EU, albeit in a mild manner rather than the fanatical manner of many pro-Leave supporters. They were also probably complacent and assumed incorrectly that a majority of voters wouldn’t be stupid enough to damage the U.K.

To draw an analogy, were we to wake up tomorrow to discover that a majority in the Oireachtas had voted to legalise slavery here, we’d probably see the rapid emergence of large numbers of people in a vocal anti-slavery movement. That though doesn’t mean that those people are currently apathetic about the issue, but rather they just assume it isn’t going to happen.

Most people knew next to nothing about the EU and scarcely anything even about their own political system. From memory, the referendum debates were watched by only 3m people.

Even if they get nothing else, Priti Patel's immigration bill passed last week removing the right to retain is a massive triumph for them because "we've seen off Johnny Foreigner now"

View wrote: »

A country deciding to make decisions jointly with other countries in an international organisation (including the EU) does not require a country to “cede” sovereignty.

Incorrect. As part of EU membership all countries have ceded some sovereignty to the EU governance bodies (as a trade-off for benefits as member of the club). Sovereignty ius composed of many constituent parts.

Setting interest rates for your economy is one of many sovereign acts of a country. Since the introduction of the Euro the Irish government (or other Eurozone governments) cannot set interest rates to suit its own economy. This is a loss of sovereignty clear and simple and undeniable (and regardless whether this was done by agreement). It is not a loss of ALL sovereignty, which is not what I am stating and which it is ridiculous to try to spin my words to mean.

So countries can try to reclaim elements of sovereignty. For instance Ireland didn't have full sovereignty from the UK after the 1922 treaty. It slowly unwound elements of remaining British control over this state such as the treaty ports, ground rents etc.

The UK ceded control of fishing rights within its 200 mile limit when it joined the EU. It now wants to reclaim this element of its sovereignty back which should hardly be a surprise to anyone. The EU can request fishing rights in those waters as a quid pro quo but it is not entitled to demand the same under international law.

View wrote: »

Your comments about pro-Remain supporters are unjust. The reality is that most of them were supportive of U.K. membership of the EU, albeit in a mild manner rather than the fanatical manner of many pro-Leave supporters. They were also probably complacent and assumed incorrectly that a majority of voters wouldn’t be stupid enough to damage the U.K.

To draw an analogy, were we to wake up tomorrow to discover that a majority in the Oireachtas had voted to legalise slavery here, we’d probably see the rapid emergence of large numbers of people in a vocal anti-slavery movement. That though doesn’t mean that those people are currently apathetic about the issue, but rather they just assume it isn’t going to happen.

Fair enough, might have been a bit harsh.
As per following post, there was definitely a lot of apathy (outside of the rabidly "pro-Brexit" campaigners & supporters).
It was quite clear the referendum was going to be a close run thing and there was a high likelyhood "remain" could very well lose, even if result was a shock/surprise.

forgottenhills wrote: »

Setting interest rates for your economy is one of many sovereign acts of a country. Since the introduction of the Euro the Irish government (or other Eurozone governments) cannot set interest rates to suit its own economy. This is a loss of sovereignty clear and simple and undeniable (and regardless whether this was done by agreement).

Afair Ireland has never really had full control over its own currency due to strong effects of Sterling on it and links tying Ireland to the UK economy next door (which have weakened a lot during our EU membership).

We certainly have more control now than we did in the time period prior to EEC/EC membership because we have some input into the ECB decisions as a Eurozone member but we never had any influence on the decisions in UK Treasury / Bank of England.

Suppose that a potential difference of perspective about the benefits of the EU to Ireland as a small weak country (usually "suffering what it must" in the past) & UK (expecting to be sovereign and "doing what it will").

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Meanwhile back in the practical world, does Ireland have a plan to avoid the likely 48 hour delays as the land bridge becomes a holding pen for our imports and exports?

Back in the real world they've lined up and have in right now some of the largest ferries in the world.

So yes.

There will be impact but a large portion of it will be handled via the new seabridge routes and better planning and storage.

Chips Lovell wrote: »

I think there's a difference between Schadenfreude and saying that, as an adult participant in a representative democracy, you need to accept that your decisions have consequences. It's less Nelson saying "haha" and more owning your mistakes.

And that is the objective way of looking at Brexit. From that neutral and logical perspective, the UK must indeed take ownership of this irrational act of self-harm but it is not for us to judge them.

Here's the thing though. This act of self-harm has very negative consequences for Ireland's economy and threatens peace on the island of Ireland. We have done nothing wrong yet we will be damaged by Brexit. Neither do I remember too many British politicians apologising for the collateral damage Ireland is about to endure. So, Irish people lashing out at the UK on this thread may be unseemly, but it is perfectly understandable.

Apparently David Frost has advised BoJo that a landing zone has been identified and a deal could be agreed by next Tuesday.

Key movement seems to be significant access for EU boats to UK waters for at least 5 years and UK to adhere to the key level playing field principles with an independent UK body to adjudicate on disputes but EU can still retaliate (economically) and UK can still express it's sovereignty by discarding level playing field alignment in the future in the full knowledge the EU will then be entitled to retaliate with tariffs etc.

Sounds a bit like how the NI assembly is being respected by having the right to terminate the WA arrangements if it votes to every 4 years, which of course it will never do as it would be economic and political suicide, but the feeling of having the right to do it, a bit like we all have the right to stab ourselves in the eye, is apparently sufficient comfort to confirm sovereignty is being respected and the Brexit negotiations have been a triumph.

Time to get the bunting and good China out!!!

54and56 wrote: »

Apparently David Frost has advised BoJo that a landing zone has been identified and a deal could be agreed by next Tuesday.

Key movement seems to be significant access for EU boats to UK waters for at least 5 years and UK to adhere to the key level playing field principles with an independent UK body to adjudicate on disputes but EU can still retaliate (economically) and UK can still express it's sovereignty by discarding level playing field alignment in the future in the full knowledge the EU will then be entitled to retaliate with tariffs etc.

Sounds a bit like how the NI assembly is being respected by having the right to terminate the WA arrangements if it votes to every 4 years, which of course it will never do as it would be economic and political suicide, but the feeling of having the right to do it, a bit like we all have the right to stab ourselves in the eye, is apparently sufficient comfort to confirm sovereignty is being respected and the Brexit negotiations have been a triumph.

Time to get the bunting and good China out!!!

I believe though this is based on comments made by Frost a few days ago and is not new information. There has been no actual breakthrough as far as I know.