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US Presidential Election 2020 Thread II - Judgement Day(s)

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24567…240

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    #32
    TP_CM
    Registered Users Posts: 443 ✭✭TP_CM


    SimonTemplar wrote: »
    Trump is going to be tweeting a lot of crap tomorrow night, including possibly declaring himself the winner before all votes have been counted. I wonder will Fox follow suit and announce his "win" or play it more cautiously.

    Twitter announced they will block any tweets like this from any candidate.


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    #33
    thecretinhop
    Registered Users Posts: 6,503 ✭✭✭thecretinhop


    sabato has less credence dan mr hurley


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    #34
    Professor Moriarty
    Registered Users Posts: 14,359 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    thecretinhop wrote: »
    sabato has less credence dan mr hurley

    What would you consider to be credible?


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    #35
    thecretinhop
    Registered Users Posts: 6,503 ✭✭✭thecretinhop


    According to the latest Rasmussen poll conducted on October 22, October 25 and October 26, Biden has a slim, one-point lead over the president.


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    #36
    thecretinhop
    Registered Users Posts: 6,503 ✭✭✭thecretinhop


    Hurleys analysis was over 6 polls


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    #37
    Brussels Sprout
    Registered Users Posts: 6,620 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    thecretinhop wrote: »
    trump is within a **** hair of reelection.
    47pc
    I love dat I get pulled up on other posts but ye ignore this..

    it's easy to cherry pick polls here and there that look favourable for a candidate(especially with some dodgy pollsters out there). You found one where he's on 47? Well another one (WSJ) had him down 10 points. On average though Trump is only hitting 43.4% in the national polls

    You can see them all here


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    #38
    TomOnBoard
    Registered Users Posts: 5,109 ✭✭✭TomOnBoard


    thecretinhop wrote: »
    anyway see ye all on otherside. I'm sure if Biden wins ye will be gracious etc. lol.

    Yes! See you on the other side, my friend.. And yes, we will practice graciousness in victory in the meantime... ;-?


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    #39
    Brussels Sprout
    Registered Users Posts: 6,620 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    Looks like people are excited to see the Upshot Needle again :pac:


    https://twitter.com/mattyshaw14/status/1323350636914757633

    https://twitter.com/dandrezner/status/1323349180023263238


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    #40
    ancapailldorcha
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 37,500 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    Off topic posts deleted.

    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



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    #41
    everlast75
    Registered Users Posts: 19,073 ✭✭✭✭everlast75


    Nice to see Donald isn't suffering from pre-election day nerves...


    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1323377681996697601?s=19


    Jfc - he is acting even more crazy than normal!


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    #42
    TomOnBoard
    Registered Users Posts: 5,109 ✭✭✭TomOnBoard


    everlast75 wrote: »
    Nice to see Donald isn't suffering from pre-election day nerves...


    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1323377681996697601?s=19


    Jfc - he is acting even more crazy than normal!

    I would say more desperate than crazy.. Crazy is forgivable and treatable (somewhat). Desperate is not..

    My Father used to tell me to NEVER back a rat into a corner... A rat will scurry along the side of any shed... But when you get it cornered, watch out for your throat!


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    #43
    Water John
    Registered Users Posts: 21,156 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    he is acting even more crazy than normal! Everlast
    Well he knows and has admitted as such in unguarded moments that the law will be taking a keen interest in him, if he loses.


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    #44
    pixelburp
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 35,941 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    Reading the above tweet makes me irritated a avowed Trump supporters talks of graciousness when the current president sounds increasingly desperate in his rhetoric - and that's saying something when he already threatens to simply Gaslight the country into "winning". I see no evidence Trump will be gracious in defeat.


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    #45
    Foxtrol
    Registered Users Posts: 11,034 ✭✭✭✭Foxtrol


    pixelburp wrote: »
    Reading the above tweet makes me irritated a avowed Trump supporters talks of graciousness when the current president sounds increasingly desperate in his rhetoric - and that's saying something when he already threatens to simply Gaslight the country into "winning". I see no evidence Trump will be gracious in defeat.

    I don't see graciousness but I see him grumbling and accepting if it isn't close.

    He is too much of a coward to try to hold on to power full dictator style.


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    #46
    everlast75
    Registered Users Posts: 19,073 ✭✭✭✭everlast75


    This *may* be a reason for the panic...


    https://twitter.com/maggieNYT/status/1323355207569444865?s=19


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    #47
    consulatory
    Registered Users Posts: 62 ✭✭consulatory


    I think the Kamala Harris' team are some what pandering to black people:
    Tweeting this out the day before the election.

    https://twitter.com/kamalaharris/status/1322963321994289154

    This even surpasses Hillary's 'I always carry hot sauce' moment in 2016.


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    #48
    Overheal
    Registered Users Posts: 81,890 ✭✭✭✭Overheal


    everlast75 wrote: »
    Nice to see Donald isn't suffering from pre-election day nerves...


    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1323377681996697601?s=19


    Jfc - he is acting even more crazy than normal!

    He's literally just riffing about all the liberties he's going to lose and the lockdown he's going to be in once indictments start rolling out for him.

    'prison... no school, no graduations, no weddings, no thanksgiving, no christmas, no fourth of july.. lockdown and misery'


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    #49
    An Ciarraioch
    Registered Users Posts: 5,803 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch


    consulatory wrote: »
    I think the Kamala Harris' team are some what pandering to black people:
    Tweeting this out the day before the election.

    https://twitter.com/kamalaharris/status/1322963321994289154

    This even surpasses Hillary's 'I always carry hot sauce' moment in 2016.

    That's just the standard Democrat type of election ad - could have just easily referred to a Hispanic or Asian figure, so the colour hardly matters.


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    #50
    Brussels Sprout
    Registered Users Posts: 6,620 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    consulatory wrote: »
    This even surpasses Hillary's 'I always carry hot sauce' moment in 2016.

    I don't see anything wrong with that message. In fact I think it's a really positive message - kind of the opposite of the Ayn Rand "I got where I am through my own talents and why should I have to help anyone else out" school of selfishness that pervades thinking in the USA.

    I'm not familiar with the hot sauce thing but I can imagine it and these do not seem comparable to me.


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    #51
    thecretinhop
    Registered Users Posts: 6,503 ✭✭✭thecretinhop


    https://youtu.be/vC-BUiBJsMw

    OK have baby waking up. snake oil man strikes again.
    my uncle died Saturday have some grace. night all


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    #52
    BonnieSituation
    Registered Users Posts: 18,923 ✭✭✭✭BonnieSituation


    consulatory wrote: »
    I think the Kamala Harris' team are some what pandering to black people:
    Tweeting this out the day before the election.

    https://twitter.com/kamalaharris/status/1322963321994289154

    This even surpasses Hillary's 'I always carry hot sauce' moment in 2016.

    Surpasses it in the sense of it not making a ripple, I don't even remember the hot sauce moment. And I remember that godforsaken campaign vividly.


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    #53
    consulatory
    Registered Users Posts: 62 ✭✭consulatory


    Brussels Sprout wrote: »
    I don't see anything wrong with that message. In fact I think it's a really positive message - kind of the opposite of the Ayn Rand "I got where I am through my own talents and why should I have to help anyone else out" school of selfishness that pervades thinking in the USA.

    I'm not familiar with the hot sauce thing but I can imagine it and these do not seem comparable to me.

    I do see something wrong with it.

    It's complete identity-politics nonsense.

    Ayn Rand was an extremist on one side. This is extremism on the other side.
    Both, to me, are wrong, and it's dangerous to promote either message.

    Even more so 'cos what are the chances of Kamala actually believing this?

    Her team looked at the data & said: "here, say this" regardless of whether she has ever expressed those beliefs or anything even close to them.


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    #54
    listermint
    Registered Users Posts: 33,724 ✭✭✭✭listermint


    consulatory wrote: »
    I do see something wrong with it.

    It's complete identity-politics nonsense.

    Ayn Rand was an extremist on one side. This is extremism on the other side.
    Both, to me, are wrong, and it's dangerous to promote either message.

    Even more so 'cos what are the chances of Kamala actually believing this?

    Her team looked at the data & said: "here, say this" regardless of whether she has ever expressed those beliefs or anything even close to them.

    You got all that out of the simple message that where you start out in life matters...


    It's such an obvious simple message and coming from someone seemingly based in Ireland ? I'm not sure how you can see this has divisive...


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    #55
    consulatory
    Registered Users Posts: 62 ✭✭consulatory


    BonnieSituation wrote: »
    Surpasses it in the sense of it not making a ripple, I don't even remember the hot sauce moment. And I remember that godforsaken campaign vividly.


    It was on Charlamange tha God's show(https://youtu.be/oRZd861Pog0?t=1497)

    The same place Biden(the 80 year old white guy) attempted to gatekeep blackness by saying: "If you have a problem figuring out if you’re for me or Trump then you ain’t black” . If a black American said that, I'd tell them to go f%^& themselves. Imagine hearing it from a white guy who's lived at least 60 years of privilege in his life. With more than enough time to think. How did those words come out of his mouth like? Unreal. Hate that sh&T
    https://youtu.be/KOIFs_SryHI?t=1039

    I mean, Trump/pence or Biden/Harris - I'd definitely be spoiling my vote on the day. Rock and a hard place.

    Dems would've been better off pulling Bernie towards center than going ahead with Biden.


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    #56
    Brussels Sprout
    Registered Users Posts: 6,620 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    consulatory wrote: »
    Ayn Rand was an extremist on one side. This is extremism on the other side.

    The notion that we don't all get dealt an equal hand in life is extremist?


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    #57
    Canice Picklington
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 64 ✭✭Canice Picklington


    consulatory wrote: »
    I think the Kamala Harris' team are some what pandering to black people:

    "Pandering to black people"

    I think your choice of words says a lot there, none of it good.


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    #58
    droidus
    Registered Users Posts: 1,545 ✭✭✭droidus


    OK, so now the second of these already voted/intend to vote polls now, with almost exactly the same results for both.

    https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1323394300789612544

    If we're assuming a 150 million turnout with 98 million already voted - then these are the numbers:

    79.54 mil Biden vs 64.4 mil Trump, could be slightly less depending when the poll took place.

    About a 10 point national lead which pretty much guarantees a Biden landslide.

    As this is a mix of an exit poll and normal poll, with the former usually being very accurate. I would take this as an indication that polling may be close this year, or certainly not wildly out.


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    #59
    Francie Barrett
    Registered Users Posts: 16,401 ✭✭✭✭Francie Barrett


    A wrap up of the predictions.

    Economist have Biden winning at 96% - https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president
    538 have Biden winning at 89% - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/
    Betfair give Biden a 66% chance of winning - https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.128151441


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    #60
    consulatory
    Registered Users Posts: 62 ✭✭consulatory


    listermint wrote: »
    You got all that out of the simple message that where you start out in life matters...


    It's such an obvious simple message and coming from someone seemingly based in Ireland ? I'm not sure how you can see this has divisive...


    If you think that was 'just a simple message', and not loaded to the brim, then I think you are their target market.

    Feel good nonsense with no basis in reality.


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    #61
    consulatory
    Registered Users Posts: 62 ✭✭consulatory


    Canice Picklington wrote: »
    "Pandering to black people"

    I think your choice of words says a lot there, none of it good.


    How so? Literally a quote from the Charlamange tha God interview.

    Please don't be silly and read words as they are written without imposing your own knee-jerk reaction on to them.


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