US Presidential Election 2020 Thread II - Judgement Day(s)

TP_CM · 02-11-2020 10:15PM

SimonTemplar wrote: »

Trump is going to be tweeting a lot of crap tomorrow night, including possibly declaring himself the winner before all votes have been counted. I wonder will Fox follow suit and announce his "win" or play it more cautiously.

Twitter announced they will block any tweets like this from any candidate.

thecretinhop · 02-11-2020 10:16PM

sabato has less credence dan mr hurley

Professor Moriarty · 02-11-2020 10:16PM

thecretinhop wrote: »

sabato has less credence dan mr hurley

What would you consider to be credible?

thecretinhop · 02-11-2020 10:25PM

According to the latest Rasmussen poll conducted on October 22, October 25 and October 26, Biden has a slim, one-point lead over the president.

thecretinhop · 02-11-2020 10:27PM

Hurleys analysis was over 6 polls

Brussels Sprout · 02-11-2020 10:31PM

thecretinhop wrote: »

trump is within a **** hair of reelection.
47pc
I love dat I get pulled up on other posts but ye ignore this..

it's easy to cherry pick polls here and there that look favourable for a candidate(especially with some dodgy pollsters out there). You found one where he's on 47? Well another one (WSJ) had him down 10 points. On average though Trump is only hitting 43.4% in the national polls

You can see them all here

TomOnBoard · 02-11-2020 10:35PM

thecretinhop wrote: »

anyway see ye all on otherside. I'm sure if Biden wins ye will be gracious etc. lol.

Yes! See you on the other side, my friend.. And yes, we will practice graciousness in victory in the meantime... ;-?

Brussels Sprout · 02-11-2020 10:37PM

Looks like people are excited to see the Upshot Needle again :pac:

https://twitter.com/mattyshaw14/status/1323350636914757633

https://twitter.com/dandrezner/status/1323349180023263238

ancapailldorcha · 02-11-2020 10:46PM

Off topic posts deleted.

everlast75 · 02-11-2020 10:48PM

Nice to see Donald isn't suffering from pre-election day nerves...

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1323377681996697601?s=19

Jfc - he is acting even more crazy than normal!

TomOnBoard · 02-11-2020 10:51PM

everlast75 wrote: »

Nice to see Donald isn't suffering from pre-election day nerves...

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1323377681996697601?s=19

Jfc - he is acting even more crazy than normal!

I would say more desperate than crazy.. Crazy is forgivable and treatable (somewhat). Desperate is not..

My Father used to tell me to NEVER back a rat into a corner... A rat will scurry along the side of any shed... But when you get it cornered, watch out for your throat!

Water John · 02-11-2020 10:52PM

he is acting even more crazy than normal! Everlast
Well he knows and has admitted as such in unguarded moments that the law will be taking a keen interest in him, if he loses.

pixelburp · 02-11-2020 10:55PM

Reading the above tweet makes me irritated a avowed Trump supporters talks of graciousness when the current president sounds increasingly desperate in his rhetoric - and that's saying something when he already threatens to simply Gaslight the country into "winning". I see no evidence Trump will be gracious in defeat.

Foxtrol · 02-11-2020 11:05PM

pixelburp wrote: »

Reading the above tweet makes me irritated a avowed Trump supporters talks of graciousness when the current president sounds increasingly desperate in his rhetoric - and that's saying something when he already threatens to simply Gaslight the country into "winning". I see no evidence Trump will be gracious in defeat.

I don't see graciousness but I see him grumbling and accepting if it isn't close.

He is too much of a coward to try to hold on to power full dictator style.

everlast75 · 02-11-2020 11:14PM

This *may* be a reason for the panic...

https://twitter.com/maggieNYT/status/1323355207569444865?s=19

consulatory · 02-11-2020 11:25PM

I think the Kamala Harris' team are some what pandering to black people:
Tweeting this out the day before the election.

https://twitter.com/kamalaharris/status/1322963321994289154

This even surpasses Hillary's 'I always carry hot sauce' moment in 2016.

Overheal · 02-11-2020 11:28PM

everlast75 wrote: »

Nice to see Donald isn't suffering from pre-election day nerves...

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1323377681996697601?s=19

Jfc - he is acting even more crazy than normal!

He's literally just riffing about all the liberties he's going to lose and the lockdown he's going to be in once indictments start rolling out for him.

'prison... no school, no graduations, no weddings, no thanksgiving, no christmas, no fourth of july.. lockdown and misery'

An Ciarraioch · 02-11-2020 11:31PM

consulatory wrote: »

I think the Kamala Harris' team are some what pandering to black people:
Tweeting this out the day before the election.

https://twitter.com/kamalaharris/status/1322963321994289154

This even surpasses Hillary's 'I always carry hot sauce' moment in 2016.

That's just the standard Democrat type of election ad - could have just easily referred to a Hispanic or Asian figure, so the colour hardly matters.

Brussels Sprout · 02-11-2020 11:34PM

consulatory wrote: »

This even surpasses Hillary's 'I always carry hot sauce' moment in 2016.

I don't see anything wrong with that message. In fact I think it's a really positive message - kind of the opposite of the Ayn Rand "I got where I am through my own talents and why should I have to help anyone else out" school of selfishness that pervades thinking in the USA.

I'm not familiar with the hot sauce thing but I can imagine it and these do not seem comparable to me.

thecretinhop · 02-11-2020 11:34PM

https://youtu.be/vC-BUiBJsMw

OK have baby waking up. snake oil man strikes again.
my uncle died Saturday have some grace. night all

BonnieSituation · 02-11-2020 11:36PM

consulatory wrote: »

I think the Kamala Harris' team are some what pandering to black people:
Tweeting this out the day before the election.

https://twitter.com/kamalaharris/status/1322963321994289154

This even surpasses Hillary's 'I always carry hot sauce' moment in 2016.

Surpasses it in the sense of it not making a ripple, I don't even remember the hot sauce moment. And I remember that godforsaken campaign vividly.

consulatory · 02-11-2020 11:39PM

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

I don't see anything wrong with that message. In fact I think it's a really positive message - kind of the opposite of the Ayn Rand "I got where I am through my own talents and why should I have to help anyone else out" school of selfishness that pervades thinking in the USA.

I'm not familiar with the hot sauce thing but I can imagine it and these do not seem comparable to me.

I do see something wrong with it.

It's complete identity-politics nonsense.

Ayn Rand was an extremist on one side. This is extremism on the other side.
Both, to me, are wrong, and it's dangerous to promote either message.

Even more so 'cos what are the chances of Kamala actually believing this?

Her team looked at the data & said: "here, say this" regardless of whether she has ever expressed those beliefs or anything even close to them.

listermint · 02-11-2020 11:43PM

consulatory wrote: »

I do see something wrong with it.

It's complete identity-politics nonsense.

Ayn Rand was an extremist on one side. This is extremism on the other side.
Both, to me, are wrong, and it's dangerous to promote either message.

Even more so 'cos what are the chances of Kamala actually believing this?

Her team looked at the data & said: "here, say this" regardless of whether she has ever expressed those beliefs or anything even close to them.

You got all that out of the simple message that where you start out in life matters...

It's such an obvious simple message and coming from someone seemingly based in Ireland ? I'm not sure how you can see this has divisive...

consulatory · 02-11-2020 11:49PM

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Surpasses it in the sense of it not making a ripple, I don't even remember the hot sauce moment. And I remember that godforsaken campaign vividly.

It was on Charlamange tha God's show(https://youtu.be/oRZd861Pog0?t=1497)

The same place Biden(the 80 year old white guy) attempted to gatekeep blackness by saying: "If you have a problem figuring out if you’re for me or Trump then you ain’t black” . If a black American said that, I'd tell them to go f%^& themselves. Imagine hearing it from a white guy who's lived at least 60 years of privilege in his life. With more than enough time to think. How did those words come out of his mouth like? Unreal. Hate that sh&T
https://youtu.be/KOIFs_SryHI?t=1039

I mean, Trump/pence or Biden/Harris - I'd definitely be spoiling my vote on the day. Rock and a hard place.

Dems would've been better off pulling Bernie towards center than going ahead with Biden.

Brussels Sprout · 02-11-2020 11:55PM

consulatory wrote: »

Ayn Rand was an extremist on one side. This is extremism on the other side.

The notion that we don't all get dealt an equal hand in life is extremist?

Canice Picklington · 02-11-2020 11:59PM

consulatory wrote: »

I think the Kamala Harris' team are some what pandering to black people:

"Pandering to black people"

I think your choice of words says a lot there, none of it good.

droidus · 03-11-2020 12:06AM

OK, so now the second of these already voted/intend to vote polls now, with almost exactly the same results for both.

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1323394300789612544

If we're assuming a 150 million turnout with 98 million already voted - then these are the numbers:

79.54 mil Biden vs 64.4 mil Trump, could be slightly less depending when the poll took place.

About a 10 point national lead which pretty much guarantees a Biden landslide.

As this is a mix of an exit poll and normal poll, with the former usually being very accurate. I would take this as an indication that polling may be close this year, or certainly not wildly out.

Francie Barrett · 03-11-2020 12:06AM

A wrap up of the predictions.

Economist have Biden winning at 96% - https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president
538 have Biden winning at 89% - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/
Betfair give Biden a 66% chance of winning - https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.128151441

consulatory · 03-11-2020 12:09AM

listermint wrote: »

You got all that out of the simple message that where you start out in life matters...

It's such an obvious simple message and coming from someone seemingly based in Ireland ? I'm not sure how you can see this has divisive...

If you think that was 'just a simple message', and not loaded to the brim, then I think you are their target market.

Feel good nonsense with no basis in reality.

consulatory · 03-11-2020 12:10AM

Canice Picklington wrote: »

"Pandering to black people"

I think your choice of words says a lot there, none of it good.

How so? Literally a quote from the Charlamange tha God interview.

Please don't be silly and read words as they are written without imposing your own knee-jerk reaction on to them.

US Presidential Election 2020 Thread II - Judgement Day(s)

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