Spring 2018: General Discussion

here is an interesting post from a knowledgeable member over on netweather, a fig leaf for those who want something warmer:

"There is talk of a fairly early "final warming" in the strat occurring imminently and impacting in the coming days. This is likely to have far less influence but might help to maintain the cold for rather longer. I still favour more of a north-easterly to northerly flow, perhaps following a few less cold days with pretty cold conditions continuing for a while. Judah Cohen and several others, also favour this outcome with a cold trough dropping into Scandinavia within the next week or so. I've noted several references on here to March 1965. Some have pointed out how cold that month was but this is not entirely accurate. Like this March it started off with a very cold and snowy spell with the British minimum March record temp being set with -21.7c. Again like this March, there was a milder interlude for a week or so before another very cold spell. What has not been mentioned is that March 1965 ended with a heatwave and a record March maximum temp of 25c! I will not show the archive charts for that month but here's a link to the Met Office's Monthly Weather Report which makes for fascinating reading: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/o/f/mar1965.pdf

Now I am not saying that this year will replicate March 1965 or March/April 2013, just that I feel there's enough evidence to support further generally cold weather for a few more weeks. I'll end with, perhaps, some better news for those wishing to see some much more springlike weather. The La Nina is continuing to weaken and the ENSO state is likely to be more or less neutral within a few weeks. This stage of that cycle at this time of the year is often associated with fairly blocked patterns and weak jet streams. The continent starts to warm up rapidly as we move further into the spring season. it is quite likely that we may see a quick transition during April from cold to much warmer, drier and settled conditions. Nothing is certain but one to look out for. "

Horrible day here, rain rain and more rain

nacho libre wrote: »

here is an interesting post from a knowledgeable member over on netweather, a fig leaf for those who want something warmer:

"There is talk of a fairly early "final warming" in the strat occurring imminently and impacting in the coming days. This is likely to have far less influence but might help to maintain the cold for rather longer. I still favour more of a north-easterly to northerly flow, perhaps following a few less cold days with pretty cold conditions continuing for a while. Judah Cohen and several others, also favour this outcome with a cold trough dropping into Scandinavia within the next week or so. I've noted several references on here to March 1965. Some have pointed out how cold that month was but this is not entirely accurate. Like this March it started off with a very cold and snowy spell with the British minimum March record temp being set with -21.7c. Again like this March, there was a milder interlude for a week or so before another very cold spell. What has not been mentioned is that March 1965 ended with a heatwave and a record March maximum temp of 25c! I will not show the archive charts for that month but here's a link to the Met Office's Monthly Weather Report which makes for fascinating reading: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/o/f/mar1965.pdf

Now I am not saying that this year will replicate March 1965 or March/April 2013, just that I feel there's enough evidence to support further generally cold weather for a few more weeks. I'll end with, perhaps, some better news for those wishing to see some much more springlike weather. The La Nina is continuing to weaken and the ENSO state is likely to be more or less neutral within a few weeks. This stage of that cycle at this time of the year is often associated with fairly blocked patterns and weak jet streams. The continent starts to warm up rapidly as we move further into the spring season. it is quite likely that we may see a quick transition during April from cold to much warmer, drier and settled conditions. Nothing is certain but one to look out for. "

Interesting commentary Nacho, but I will say, that 9 times out of 10, that in the period mid-April into May, it tends to becomes drier and warmer anyway. Indeed, this period is one of the driest on average in Ireland at least.

Artane2002 wrote: »

I wonder if this March is giving the wettest March on record a run for it's money (Dublin Airport to be specific) It has been a very very wet month if we include the snowfall too.

The wettest March on record for Dublin Airport (records go back to 1942) was 1964 with 106.6mm of rainfall. March 2008 came close at 102.4mm. March 2018 up to the 15th is at 142.7mm.

Data from Met Éireann.

sryanbruen wrote: »

The wettest March on record for Dublin Airport (records go back to 1942) was 1964 with 106.6mm of rainfall. March 2008 came close at 102.4mm. March 2018 up to the 15th is at 142.7mm.

Data from Met Éireann.

I think you mean 42.7 mm, Sryan?

sryanbruen wrote: »

No I don't, provided all the heavy precipitation on the 1st and 2nd was snow.

Jaysus. I didn't think it'd be that much! Sorry for doubting the Statman!

That's crazy. How did Dublin Airport get 101.9mm more than Casement in the month so far?

Also, it's very confusing that Dublin Airport recorded so much more precipitation than Casement, yet Casement had higher snowfall totals.

HighLine wrote: »

Surely an error? There is 18km between the two locations.

30-40 mm three days in a row at the start of the month? I seriously doubt it. Looks like an error.

https://www.met.ie/climate/monthly-data.asp?Num=532

In fact, I tweeted about this on the 5th March:

https://twitter.com/BruenSryan/status/970595554815303680

nacho libre wrote: »

I think he meant warmer and drier than usual due to the possible continental feed in a blocked pattern. Although if the jetstream is still so far south, as jdcv94 mentioned, it might mean we alternate between lows from biscay, and drier continental air from the east. So it could be good for thunderstorms fans, if lows from Biscay do pay us a visit.

I don't envy your current place of residence as London and the SE in general endures a horrible type of heat for much of the June-Sept period, though this can be compensated for somewhat by epic thunderstorms the region often experiences.

30hPa in the stratosphere is still relatively warm.



Snow and ice cover chart for 18 March 2018.

nacho libre wrote: »

The ECM seems to be out if kilter with the clusters, more of them lean toward the GFS OP. I certainly hope the GFS is correct. I'm ready for the beast from the north. There are tentative signs km79 and others may get their wish in and around mid april. Only a bit over seven months till November now anyway:D. Lets hope we get a very early snowfall this November, then a revist by the father of the beast in early January.

Whilst I'm certainly not ruling out the chance of it, at this stage, another cold November I think is very unlikely, we've had two consecutive cold Novembers now in 2016 and 2017. Examples of cool/cold Novembers for the IMT before these were 2013, 2012, 2010, 2008, 2005, 2000, 1996, 1993, 1988, 1985, 1984, 1982. Notice how none of these are three consecutive colder than average Novembers.

Have to admit, I was thinking November 2017 would be a mild month going by how cold November 2016 was but Mother Nature proved me wrong and gave us another beautiful November - would be even more beautiful if there was snow :cool:.

November 2010 and 1985 are the coldest Novembers in the last 30 or so years with IMTs of 5.0 and 4.5 respectively in comparison to the November average of 7.2. I may do a post on November 1985 sometime, you already know a huge article is coming on November/December 2010 in the future which I want to be as in-depth as possible .

There's a distinct lack of buds on the trees this year. The cherry blossoms should be making an appearance in the next few weeks but there's little chance of that. The daffodils too are way behind (in my area anyway).

Daffodils are blooming here in West Clare

jdcv94 wrote: »

So the ECM going in line with the other models means we're looking at a general trend of cool to cold conditions for the next 10 days at least, perhaps more if the Jet Stream continues on it's Odyssey. Anyone else find this a bit depressing? Cold at this time of year just lurks, snow will melt quickly and northerlies at this time of year won't do much outside of Ulster unless you're on higher ground.

The only thing I could compare this to is 2013 when winter (in terms of temps) extended until May http://www.thejournal.ie/april-cold-ireland-892012-May2013/ , I hated that spell so much! Although we can all agree that the upside to that was the incredible Leaving Cert weather that year . So I hope for something similar here if I can't have the mild south westerlies back.

Humans differ:) I find this weather is uplifting.
Mild and wet south westerlies, no thanks. We have that for most of the year! The reason i'm loving the cold and snow is there's no guarantee we won't be snowless in years to come, or rather more likely is that it will be a long time before we see as potent an easterly again. I guess some people will be glad if that happens, though. I won't be one of them!

For me, I am enjoying the largely dry weather, which is more than well earned for us in the wild west. Couldn't care less about snow at this time of the year. My focus at this point in time is on my garden and any future convective potential. When it comes to the true might of Thor, snow will always be a far behind second.